Can 25,000 votes take Iowa?

[Perry]

Can we take Iowa with 25,000 votes?

Opinions?

[Paulite5112007]

Only if second place is 24999 or less votes =)

[nist7]

It will depend on how many others turnout.

For example, in 2000, about 110k voted in the republican primary.....GWB won 41% of that.

In 2004, only about 88k voted in the GOP primary, GWB took it with ease because there was no serious opposition.

This year with no incumbents in office, there will probably be a higher turn out numbers....so 25k might not take it.


http://www.sos.state.ia.us/elections/results/index.html#17

[kushaze]

I am expecting a record turnout in Iowa, but with so many candidates who knows.

[nist7]

I am expecting a record turnout in Iowa, but with so many candidates who knows.

Yup.

No one is the clear front runner in the GOP circles so expect a lot people coming out to show their support for their guy....so this means we will need a lot of votes.

[Paulite5112007]

I think we will take second in Iowa...unless Huckabum's support starts to fade fast or Ron Pauls ads take root in the coming weeks. A Ron Paul second place showing would be as good as Huckabum winning is bad though. The good news is Ron Paul will outshine him in NH and we will show well in S.C. and win Nevada.

[steph3n]

fred thompson may make a strong showing.

[nist7]

fred thompson may make a strong showing.

Good point. Everyone has been dismissing Thompson but he is basically living in IA until Jan 3rd. He may be the second biggest upset.

[RockEnds]

Sunday on Iowa Public Television, the spokesman for the Democrats said they expected record turnout. The Republican spokesman hung his head and admitted that there's not much interest on the Republican side, and caucus turnout would not be heavy.

I agree with their long overdue analysis. The hype in Iowa is Hillary vs Obama.

[nist7]

Sunday on Iowa Public Television, the spokesman for the Democrats said they expected record turnout. The Republican spokesman hung his head and admitted that there's not much interest on the Republican side, and caucus turnout would not be heavy.

I agree with their long overdue analysis. The hype in Iowa is Hillary vs Obama.

Wow....I desperately hope the republican spokesman is right.

A low turnout on the GOP side will almost guarantee a victory for Ron Paul.....:cool:

Let's hope the weather is really bad.......lots of snow, cold, wind, mmmmmmm

[jacmicwag]

Yes, Fred is the competition for 3rd place which is all we need to effectively win in the eyes of the media. Third through sixth will be tight. I'm hoping Mitt takes out Huck with a late surge. Right now - Huck stands to run away with the whole thing unless someone plays stopper. For better or worse, that has to be Mitt in Iowa. Third place in Iowa is incredibly important for Ron.

[kotetu]

let's see... 110k voted in 2000...the latest Iowa poll is 7%, so that means we have 7,700 votes so far, and then we are getting in touch with 700k more voters, so if 210k (30%) of them go and vote for Ron Paul, that would be 217.7k, and when you divide 217.7k/320k, you get 68%.

Thus does the postulate in my sig come true. :D

[paulpwns]

turnout low.

ice storms. Ron Paul wins. media dismisses Iowa.

one mans prediction.

[TheIndependent]

We need to rock the college campuses and doors nonstop in order to ensure we can secure the votes toward the total which will bring us VERY high in the standings for Iowa and catapult us into New Hampshire with confidence. Not all of us are as hardcore as us here at RPF, so this definitely needs to be an imperative.

Screw the pundits, guys. Don't let them get you down. I have faith in Ives and the campaign (and especially the volunteers) that they'll do what's needed to secure us as high a spot as we can. This is a fight, and we're going to win.

[Ronin]

Rep Turnout
2000 Primary 111,734
2004 Primary 88,221

RP Votes Polled 7% (2004) 6,175 [ we currently own these per polls ]

Additional Needed for:

10% 4,998 (111,734 * .1) - 6,175
15% 10,585
20% 16,171
30% 27,345
40% 38,518

[daviddee]

...

[RockEnds]

I looked for a video of what ran Sunday, but I couldn't find anything at all. Mike Mahaffey was the Republican spokesman's name. He's the former chair of the Iowa GOP. He does segments with WHO and PBS. Anyway, if he's right, and it is an if, it would be very good for us. I don't see any indication that he's wrong. Still, there's two weeks to go. Anything could change.

[RP-Republican]

And this was written way back in October

October 4th, 2007

Ron Paul Could Win Iowa

I’m somewhat surprised to be saying this, and it took me a while to come to this conclusion, but I think — given the right set of circumstances — Republican Rep. Ron Paul could win the Iowa Caucuses. I’m not going to say it’s likely, but it isn’t impossible.

Here’s why it could happen:

• Huge fundraising: Rep. Paul’s third quarter fundraising was astonishing. If he spends it right (and so far his campaign has proven its ability to stretch every single dollar), he could have enough direct mail and paid media to look like just as “real” a candidate as any others in the eyes of Iowa Republicans.

• Good organization: The Paul campaign recently announced that it had brought on veteran Iowa Republican Dr. Drew Ivers as its new Iowa chairman. Ivers has worked in Iowa GOP politics since the Reagan campaign, and he ran Iowa presidential campaigns for Pat Robertson and Pat Buchanan. Asked what he was planning to do to change the Paul campaign in Iowa, Ivers smartly said, “the main difference between our strategies is that [the old Iowa campaign chair] used a traditional media campaign, whereas I intend to use more of a grass-roots, on-the-ground strategy.” That’s how you win the Iowa Caucuses.

• Splintered electorate: Because the evangelicals who dominate the Republican caucuses seem to be splitting between a number of different candidates, Ron Paul’s — ahem — “uniqueness” could serve him quite well. In particular, Paul is the only Republican candidate with a strong anti-war message, and survey results show that half of likely Republican caucus goers agree with him. With a field this large, Paul may only need support of half of the anti-war Republicans — which would represent 25% of the total electorate — to win a plurality of delegates.

• Low expectations: The media will not expect Rep. Paul to place in the Iowa Caucuses, to say nothing of whether they think he can win. The three points listed above are intended to demonstrate that he could come in first here with some luck and elbow grease, but it is important to remember that a second or third place finish would be enough to call it a “win.” Just by placing, Ron Paul would get the Iowa bump.

http://cmondisplay.com/2007/10/04/ron-paul-could-win-iowa/

[daikonv]

i'm curious where the OP chose 25k from. do we have 25k supporters in iowa? if so, that is fantastic news.

[RP-Republican]

In 2000 86,000 Republicans participated in the Iowa caucus. That was coming off of 8 years of Clinton so turnout was pretty good. The Democrats trunout was about 61,000.

So will the Republican turnout be lower since there has been 8 years of Bush?

[Richandler]

All we can do is wait, or if you are in Iowa, do some work. That being said, securing gauranteed votes is very essential. I'm not sure when the infommercial airs but lets hope it's not too long after this Beck interview. Oddly Huckabee says that has contributed to his success. Hopefully, along with big money being spent that we raised, it will work for us too.

[Austin]

No!

The campaign has said 25,000 votes will get us in the top 3, not win it.

[daikonv]

can someone fill me in on where this 25,000 figure is coming from?

[CriticalThinker]

can someone fill me in on where this 25,000 figure is coming from?

Good question - don't ya think?

Eh ... f#ckit - we can CREATE them - have so far. FOCUS ON IOWA

[Austin]

can someone fill me in on where this 25,000 figure is coming from?
I am participating in the Christmas Vacation thing, and it was mentioned in the RSVP form. Take a look here (http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=FWUX7VmtoHmqnB9jnS4B4g_3d_3d).


Historically, turn out in the Republican Iowa caucus is very low. 25,000 votes for Ron Paul will guarantee us a top 3 finish. Having you in Iowa the two weeks leading up to the caucus will be the difference. We will shock the political and media establishment!

[daikonv]

thanks krippy. very interesting the campaign mentions this number. i doubt they would pull it out of thin air. given the statistics on the last two primary election numbers, the trend on total voters has been in the downward direction. Also, I think the majority of republicans aren't very motivated this primary season so turnout may be even lower this year. If this is the case, then 25k would be huge, especially since RP supporters will definitely go out to vote! Perhaps I'm just being optimistic, but I'm sure we'll turn a lot of heads. Keep up the canvassing and continue to spread Dr. Paul's message!

[burningfur]

turnout low.

ice storms. Ron Paul wins. media dismisses Iowa.

one mans prediction.

+1

[saahmed]

I think the Democratics will have a huge turnout. Republicans will not be so big. The campaign is saying 17,000 will get us in the top 3.

[Ogren]

By my estimate the turnout will be around 200k people in Iowa. We would need nearly 60k people at the polls to win it. 25k wont cut it, at best we could get 4th place with 25k.

[Taco John]

By my estimate the turnout will be around 200k people in Iowa. We would need nearly 60k people at the polls to win it. 25k wont cut it, at best we could get 4th place with 25k.


200k? No way... There's no precedent to show that Iowans will turn out to the polls that heavily. The Iowa caucus historically has a low turnout, which is why it's so notorious for the pollsters getting it wrong.

There won't be more than 125k there, and I personally will be suprised if the number makes it as high as 110k with this field.

We'll need over 42,000 to place in first. But we're only going to need about 30,000 to place in second. I believe that we've got 25k easy right now in Iowa. With this Iowa push, I believe that we'll reach second place and drive a stake in Romney's heart, and move on to win New Hampshire.

[RP-Republican]

2000 is the best indicator 86,000 Republicans turned and Bush won with 41% of the vote 35,000 votes.

[Austin]

I think the Democratics will have a huge turnout. Republicans will not be so big. The campaign is saying 17,000 will get us in the top 3.

Where are you getting the 17,000 number?

[daikonv]

i'm curious where the 17k number comes from as well. can you link a source?

[DanConway]

All we can do is wait, or if you are in Iowa, do some work. That being said, securing gauranteed votes is very essential. I'm not sure when the infommercial airs but lets hope it's not too long after this Beck interview. Oddly Huckabee says that has contributed to his success. Hopefully, along with big money being spent that we raised, it will work for us too.

If you're not in Iowa, you can write letters to Iowa -- but hurry up so that they get there in time! We have nearly 200,000 addresses still to be taken, so we need everyone we can get.

Historically, direct mail is one of the most effective campaign tools -- and on top of that, our letters are coming from individual, unaffiliated volunteers. With your help, we can win Iowa.

http://www.louislogan.com/letters/index.asp

[RP-Republican]

i'm curious where the 17k number comes from as well. can you link a source?

George W Bush - 41% - 35,000
Steve Forbes - 30% - 25,000
Alan Keyes - 14% - 12,000
Gary Bauer - 9% - 7,700
McCain - 5% - 4,300

http://www.geocities.com/Pacific_Future/news240100iowa.html

[Nick From Iowa]

..

[RP-Republican]

Huckabee
Romney
Giuliani
Thompson
McCain
Hunter
Tancredo
Keys
Ron Paul

I really believe it is going to come down to turnout if our people turnout we can win with the vote being split between that many candidates.

[JosephTheLibertarian]

we should pull a Kerry - bus loads and loads of voters in to vote

[Badger Paul]

My guess is the GOP turnout will be between 75,000-80,000 and it could be less than that given the circumstances like demoralization and weather.

[Arek]

I think all our supporters will come out while many of the other candidates supporters won't. Also I think we have a good chance with a lot of undecided caucus goers. The message is also being blitzed in Iowa over the Holiday season, by both the official campaign and the grass roots supporters. I hope the campaign starts running ads in South Carolina so we can take it or at least place 2nd there, but a win in SC could secure us the nomination with the penalty imposed on Florida. Also I look for a strong showing in Michigan for Ron Paul. Also we already are in double digits in SC so that means we're a force there.

[Dave]

I predict that turnout won't break 70,000 this year. Look at how turnout was low for the Ames Straw Poll. Many in the GOP expect to get beat up in 08 just like in 06. The dems have the energy right now with GWB leaving office. Plus consider that the caucus is right on top of the holidays and you can expect much lower turnout than the 87,666 that voted in 2000.

[Sandra]

The key is to get to voters that WILL go to the primary. Or have them there.

[Perry]

i'm curious where the OP chose 25k from. do we have 25k supporters in iowa? if so, that is fantastic news.

No complex algorithm I assure you. I was staring at the 2000 Caucus numbers for about ten minutes and that number just popped into my mind.:D I just don't think it's going to take a lot of votes to take Iowa. This race is so spread out. Iowa is within our grasp.

[Perry]

200k? No way... There's no precedent to show that Iowans will turn out to the polls that heavily. The Iowa caucus historically has a low turnout, which is why it's so notorious for the pollsters getting it wrong.

There won't be more than 125k there, and I personally will be suprised if the number makes it as high as 110k with this field.

We'll need over 42,000 to place in first. But we're only going to need about 30,000 to place in second. I believe that we've got 25k easy right now in Iowa. With this Iowa push, I believe that we'll reach second place and drive a stake in Romney's heart, and move on to win New Hampshire.

There is one item that must be thrown into the equation. That is that the last real republican caucus was in 2000 prior to 9/11. The 2004 caucus does not count as Bush was uncontested. It is entirely possible people are much more motivated than the apathetic pre-911 days.

[Paulitician]

Ames was incredibly small, but with only 1 frontrunner there it's no wonder. I think if Giuliani and Thompson weren't in the race the thing would be down to Romney and Huckabee for the nomination. I think Thompson is the one we really have to beat for 3rd place. Giuliani has high name recognition but I don't know if that's enough. Anyway, even if 200k show up, that still has the vote split by 5 "major" candidates: Romney, Huckabee, Giuliani, Thompson and McCain. Tancredo, Hunter and Keyes collectively will hardly make a dent. Therefore, it probably won't take more than 25k to get third in the popular poll, if not second. Delegates are a different matter.

[dfalken]

There is one item that must be thrown into the equation. That is that the last real republican caucus was in 2000 prior to 9/11. The 2004 caucus does not count as Bush was uncontested. It is entirely possible people are much more motivated than the apathetic pre-911 days.

Yes you are correct.

The Ron Paul supporters are MUCH more motivated than the apathetic pre-911 days. Where are the bumpers stickers, t-shirts, lawn signs etc for the other candidates? The people I know that are not voting for Ron Paul don't even know who they are going to vote for and don't really care...if they end up voting it will be because they think they need to vote as Americans or something like that and will probably pick who they vote for right at the poll. There is apathy and there is Ron Paul and since apathy has 5 candidates to its name dividing up the apathy votes, I think it is very realistic and possible that Ron Paul will actually win Iowa and by a wide margin.

I can't wait to see the face of the media on January 3rd as they become asses infront of the public.

[kotetu]

we should pull a Kerry - bus loads and loads of voters in to vote

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