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LastoftheMohicans
07-06-2007, 04:37 PM
While it is nice that Ron Paul has gone to Arizona, CA and is going to Nevada, I think he has to start spending the lion's share of his time in NH and IA. And to a lesser extent, SC. There's another early primary but I can't think of it off hand.
I think the people and supporters in the later primary states will understand.

There is only about 6 months until the first two. I believe the Congress will have a vacation coming up soon. Many of the other candidates have the advantage of being a "Fmr" something or other.

Razmear
07-06-2007, 04:46 PM
Id consider SC to be more important that NH.
NH is probably going to go to next door neighbor Romney, and a win there will do little to convince The South to back RP. Also there are more electors in SC than NH.

Spend a week in South Carolina, and Ron's message will start to spread across the south like wildfire.

eb

Mort
07-06-2007, 04:58 PM
I don't know. NH likes to think of itself as libertarian. So why wouldnt Ron Paul have a strong chance of taking it?

MozoVote
07-06-2007, 05:02 PM
NH does not have a good recent history of selecting winners. The press will spin it as the defiant individualism of NH, if Ron wins. Winning SC shows the kind of support that could carry into Super Tuesday, though.

Electrostatic
07-06-2007, 05:02 PM
All three are important.... If we can do good in all it will show that Ron Paul plays in New England, the Midwest, and the South.. No one else can say that with authority.....

Another one that would be HUGE is California... They moved up their primary... If we can do good there it would be an amazing boon to the campaign.

Razmear
07-06-2007, 05:03 PM
Even if he did win NH, South Carolina will do more towards winning the nomination than NH.
Also ad rates in NH are much more expensive as they are in the Boston Market, and not to hurt anyone in New Hampshire's feelings, the South really doesn't care what happens in NH and won't be swayed soley on the basis of a RP victory there.

If you want to win one token state, then go all out in NH, if you want to win the nomination, then you have to win the South.

eb

MozoVote
07-06-2007, 05:06 PM
One small thing in RP's favor. He is not a "Regional candidate" in any of the first 3.

Last year, Kerry won NH and nobody cared. Edwards won SC and nobody cared. It was percieved as backyard territory.

kylejack
07-06-2007, 05:12 PM
NH is CRITICAL. If we don't take the Free State, we won't win the nomination. That should be the easiest state. We poll best there. Nevada is also important as it is now an early state. We can get a lot of support from gamblers there, as well.

LastoftheMohicans
07-06-2007, 05:14 PM
I wasn't trying to disrespect or minimize SC. I just thought that since NH is first, any momentum from a win (or 2nd) could be used in SC.

Scribbler de Stebbing
07-06-2007, 05:15 PM
For now, I hope you all will agree, he needs to get his body into Iowa and win the damn straw poll.

LastoftheMohicans
07-06-2007, 05:17 PM
Nevada. Thanks. That's the other early one. Didn't Aaron Russo do very well in the Republican Gubernatorial primary a few years back.

Silverback
07-06-2007, 05:25 PM
The traditional early states are all critical, to build momentum.

The other states are also important. Paul has a lot of support out here on the west coast, and lots of electoral votes are his for the asking.

In my home state of WA we have a good chance at winning if we can get his name recognition up, the GOP leans libertarian out here and we've got some quirky primary procedural stuff this cycle that plays to our advantage.

The Dems aren't choosing delegates via primary election and the Reps are choosing half of them that way, in an open primary state. So we have multiple avenues to pursue delegates.

Yes, I agree he should be in Iowa, he should be talking up industrial hemp and he needs to get Willie writing songs for him.

MozoVote
07-06-2007, 05:32 PM
Nevada has Libertarian leanings, and there is still bad blood about the Federal government selecting Yucca Mountain for the nuclear waste site. The rural counties are strongly conservative ranching "leave me alone" type areas. So it should not be too alien for Ron to collect support.

In my lifetime I can't remember seeing any candidate win the nomination without winning one of the first 3 states. This year could plausibly be different. There is so much discontent among the public.

Because Ron is thrify with his donations he may be able to carry through with 2nd place results, and still win it in a tortise/hare fashion as the campaign moves west.

And he's the ONLY candidate from Texas, which has a boatload of delegates.

Dustancostine
07-06-2007, 05:36 PM
Nevada has Libertarian leanings, and there is still bad blood about the Federal government selecting Yucca Mountain for the nuclear waste site. The rural counties are strongly conservative ranching "leave me alone" type areas. So it should not be too alien for Ron to collect support.

In my lifetime I can't remember seeing any candidate win the nomination without winning one of the first 3 states. This year could plausibly be different. There is so much discontent among the public.

Because Ron is thrify with his donations he may be able to carry through with 2nd place results, and still win it in a tortise/hare fashion as the campaign moves west.

And he's the ONLY candidate from Texas, which has a boatload of delegates.

He is only polling 6% right now in Texas, but we should be able to get him the win if we keep working hard here.

-Dustan

MozoVote
07-06-2007, 05:50 PM
The big problem is Super Tuesday. It coveres so much of the country and it's not possible to be everywhere or afford to advertise everywhere unless 3Q & 4Q donations are strong.

But there's hope. I remember for example, Paul Tsongas winning Utah during Super Tuesday, and he joked that it was a state he had never even visited. The Super "T" can be too much for the other campaigns to handle as well so it generates some wildcard results.

But I guess it boils again back down to doing well, early.

Nash
07-06-2007, 05:52 PM
NH does not have a good recent history of selecting winners. The press will spin it as the defiant individualism of NH, if Ron wins. Winning SC shows the kind of support that could carry into Super Tuesday, though.

I've posted here before that Buchanan jumped 15 points in the polls after taking NH in 1996. The press might spin it, but it definitely legitimizes a campaign at least from the perspective of the polls. Any early state is important and I think Paul's best chance to win is in NH so that's probably where his campaign focus should be.

SeanEdwards
07-06-2007, 05:53 PM
Building Ron Paul supporters in the influential SF Bay Area can not be in any way bad for a guy seeking the U.S. Presidency. It's certainly not a waste of the man's time.

MozoVote
07-06-2007, 05:56 PM
Any early state is important and I think Paul's best chance to win is in NH so that's probably where his campaign focus should be.

Winning NH would also be some serious spit in Romney's eye. The press would quesion his credibility if he can't win in his backyard. And I don't think Romney will play well in SC, regardless.

LibertyEagle
07-06-2007, 05:57 PM
Building Ron Paul supporters in the influential SF Bay Area can not be in any way bad for a guy seeking the U.S. Presidency. It's certainly not a waste of the man's time.

Do you honestly believe the San Francisco area is going to go to anyone but a liberal Democrat?

DjLoTi
07-06-2007, 06:01 PM
Building Ron Paul supporters in the influential SF Bay Area can not be in any way bad for a guy seeking the U.S. Presidency. It's certainly not a waste of the man's time.

I totally agree :)

Dary
07-06-2007, 06:02 PM
Doesn’t’ he have a campaign staff that manages where he will be and when and even why?

I trust 'em.

jd603
07-06-2007, 06:02 PM
No no, Romney is not all that well liked over here in NH... :)

Paul has as good a shot as long as he gets exposure.


Id consider SC to be more important that NH.
NH is probably going to go to next door neighbor Romney, and a win there will do little to convince The South to back RP. Also there are more electors in SC than NH.

Spend a week in South Carolina, and Ron's message will start to spread across the south like wildfire.

eb

BLS
07-06-2007, 06:06 PM
For now, I hope you all will agree, he needs to get his body into Iowa and win the damn straw poll.

Agreed. This is KEY.

RonPaulCult
07-06-2007, 06:10 PM
As I've said elsewhere on this forum Ron has been running his campaign as if he didn't feel like he would win. As if he just wants to urge other candidates and all americans to take on some of his views.

NOW he is starting to realize he can WIN so he needs to start campaigning like it.

He needs to get himself over to Iowa and start kissing some ass and eating some corn.

LibertyEagle
07-06-2007, 06:14 PM
As I've said elsewhere on this forum Ron has been running his campaign as if he didn't feel like he would win. As if he just wants to urge other candidates and all americans to take on some of his views.

NOW he is starting to realize he can WIN so he needs to start campaigning like it.

He needs to get himself over to Iowa and start kissing some ass and eating some corn.

I actually agree with this. I wish his wife would get more involved too. She could do a lot of good on the campaign trail. People would love her.

MozoVote
07-06-2007, 06:26 PM
I agree that his wife would be a great envoy for Iowa.

SeanEdwards
07-06-2007, 06:35 PM
Do you honestly believe the San Francisco area is going to go to anyone but a liberal Democrat?

A republican is governor of California.

maiki
07-06-2007, 06:41 PM
Yeah, and Romney won MA, but I doubt MA will ever go red in National Elections. I mean, Dukakis completely destroyed MA as a governor back in the day, and he STILL carried MA in the national elections.

But for the Primaries, republican votes in large blue states actually count for a lot, since there are less registered republicans. So it is important to spread the word there, too. :)

Silverback
07-06-2007, 06:41 PM
Do you honestly believe the San Francisco area is going to go to anyone but a liberal Democrat?

I'm almost certain the Republican primary in CA will not be won by a liberal Democrat, Yes.

Electrostatic
07-06-2007, 06:53 PM
Silverback has a very good point... This is the GOP Primary....

LibertyEagle
07-06-2007, 06:56 PM
A republican is governor of California.

Yes and we also have that same brand of Republican in the White House. In fact, Giuliani, McCain and Romney also are of that same brand. Big government statists all.

Their principles however, have nothing whatsoever to do with traditional conservative principles, so it is certainly not a given that they will like Ron Paul.

LibertyEagle
07-06-2007, 07:01 PM
I'm almost certain the Republican primary in CA will not be won by a liberal Democrat, Yes.

touche. :D

Cindy
07-06-2007, 07:08 PM
There's another early primary but I can't think of it off hand.


That would be Florida.

They bumped it up recently. There are many meetup groups in this state to give visits from him lots of support. If you count up all of the demand he has on Eventful from the towns and cities in this state, it would be in the thousands. Orlando would be a good central point. I think many would be willing to drive to it from the further reaches of the state. It could be HUGE!, if he came to Orlando, Florida.

Florida also passed a law to move completely back to paper ballots by 2012,
and mostly for the 2008 election. This is a state not to be overlooked by the Paul campaign. The numbers are here to rally behind him.

If anyone at head Quarters can get him in around the Tampa Bay Sarasota area, that would be stellar. He has Huge meet groups here already AND, these areas host many CDDs ( our own taxxing districts), which have been sorely screwed by government corruption. We have been throwing our own Boston tea parties down here, showing up in huge numbers to fight County governments, utilizing the media to our advantage and have been Winning. The counties taking lobby money from developers are backing down and off now. These areas have some serious movers and shakers fed up with government corruption, illegals everywhere causing crime, double taxation, and the war sending our local men and women home in coffins. They are fired up and ready to back a man like Ron Paul.

Sarasota/Tampa Florida is a place for him to get to by September if he can.

Bro.Butch
07-06-2007, 07:40 PM
He will have to start campaigning to win or he has no chance. 1st week of the month-Iowa, 2nd week- NH, 3rd week-SC, 4th week USA until Super Tues. Lease a four bedroom house in Des Moines, Manchester & Columbia for campaign HQs. Use two bedrooms for RP and his handler, one BR for female volunteers, one for male volunteers. Put in phone banks. Saves on motel fees when RP is in state. Needs to purchase two RVs (one for Iowa & one for SC they are larger states) decked out in RP signs, etc. so he can travel the two states campaigning. When he is too far away and unable to make it back to HQ to sleep, they can stay in RV. His grandkids should take turns being his driver to save money on that end. When he's campaigning in one state part of his family should be in another campaigning for him. Look @ the other campaigns, they are campaigning. Dr. Paul isn't spending much time on the ground in IA, NH or SC. They need to put it in HIGH GEAR to win this race . And he must finish in the top 3 in IA, top 2 in NH & SC if he is to have ANY chance of winning. That's the facts, because he won't have the money to advertise in all Super Tues states ! It's all about Delegates, do you know the rules on how to win delegates for your state ? Just my $.02


As I've said elsewhere on this forum Ron has been running his campaign as if he didn't feel like he would win. As if he just wants to urge other candidates and all americans to take on some of his views.

NOW he is starting to realize he can WIN so he needs to start campaigning like it.

He needs to get himself over to Iowa and start kissing some ass and eating some corn.


I actually agree with this. I wish his wife would get more involved too. She could do a lot of good on the campaign trail. People would love her.

lynnf
07-06-2007, 08:10 PM
While it is nice that Ron Paul has gone to Arizona, CA and is going to Nevada, I think he has to start spending the lion's share of his time in NH and IA. And to a lesser extent, SC. There's another early primary but I can't think of it off hand.
I think the people and supporters in the later primary states will understand.




I think it's a good idea to spend some time generating some fund raising in other
areas of the country so that when he does spend more time in IA and NH, he
has some money to do something with! It's great that he has volunteers and
everything, but as it's said, money is the mother's milk of politics.

lynn

BillyBeer
07-06-2007, 08:12 PM
Id consider SC to be more important that NH.
NH is probably going to go to next door neighbor Romney, and a win there will do little to convince The South to back RP. Also there are more electors in SC than NH.

Spend a week in South Carolina, and Ron's message will start to spread across the south like wildfire.

eb

Just let Ron talk about Lincoln and the Civil War and he'll gain a lot of support in Dixie.

BillyBeer
07-06-2007, 08:15 PM
Even if he did win NH, South Carolina will do more towards winning the nomination than NH.
Also ad rates in NH are much more expensive as they are in the Boston Market, and not to hurt anyone in New Hampshire's feelings, the South really doesn't care what happens in NH and won't be swayed soley on the basis of a RP victory there.

If you want to win one token state, then go all out in NH, if you want to win the nomination, then you have to win the South.

eb

I disagree. We are in the age of 24 hour news with the internet and cable news networks. Whoever wins the first two contests in Iowa and New Hampshire gets a ton of momentum for their campaign and the perception that they are the winner. They also get something you cant put a price on, constant exposure and free publicity.

The bottom line is that Ron Paul has to win in New Hampshire or his campaign is dead before the South Carolina primary.

BillyBeer
07-06-2007, 08:18 PM
Do you honestly believe the San Francisco area is going to go to anyone but a liberal Democrat?

Theres a lot of money to be tapped in the Bay Area....

BillyBeer
07-06-2007, 08:26 PM
Also, let me address the point that Ron shouldnt be visiting different parts of the country. In due time I bet he concentrates on New Hampshire. He basically should live in the Granite State from Thanksgiving until the Primary. That said, he has to build support across the country if he ever hopes to raise enough funds to win the GOP nomination.

Badger Paul
07-06-2007, 08:35 PM
Lets look at the primary and caucus schedule for January and early February (as of now anyway):

Jan. 14 - Iowa caucuses
Jan. 19 - Nevada caucuses
Jan. 22 - New Hampshire Primary, Wyoming caucuses
Jan. 29 - Flordia Primary
Feb. 2 - South Carolina Primary

For RP to win the GOP nomination has to win five out of the six (hopefully he can do well in Florida but given the size of the state and money needed to compete I'm not going to hold my breath). These are small states with cheap media markets and three of them are caucuses that with a good turnout of support can be won.

So defintely RP should be in Nevada and New Hampshire this weekend and the Bay Area is good place to raise money because it has the kind of wealthy libertarians who would be in his corner.

But yes, by the end of this month and the first part of August he needs to be in Iowa. Right now the key is phone calling Iowans and having the meetup groups attend events to spread his name across the state. That's what we did last week.

Also, don't put too much stock in trips to Iowa equaling votes. Yes you need to be there but more importantly you need people on the ground working for you and that RP has. Tommy Thompson has been practically living in Iowa for the past year and a half and where is he in the polls? No better than RP and in some cases worse. The same with Brownback, Huckabee and Tancredo. Hell, Guliani has basically blown the state off and he still gets double-digit support there. McCain has just seven staffers on the ground in Iowa and practically no volunteers. You think that's going to help him? Candidates like Bruce Babbitt and Dick Gephardt and Paul Simon and many others have done the camp in Iowa routine over the years and its fallen short. Ultimately what will draw Iowans to RP is his message and his personality. Right now is the time to get the word out about RP and hopefully we can fill in the rest later.

MozoVote
07-06-2007, 10:01 PM
All this time I did not realize Florida had moved in front of SC. That really complicates things. SC is a reasonable sized place to campaign. Florida isn't at all, and there's really no time to recover from a poor showing there. Odds are the other candidates are going to run scary commercials for Florida retirees, about Paul cutting Social Security if he has done well earlier.

Cindy
07-06-2007, 10:46 PM
Rumor has it that Florida bumped it up, to give Paul less time to get to this state.


What is scarier then "social security" to people down here is how we are being taxed to death, illegal alien crime, peoples children and grandchildren coming home from Iraq in coffins, and inflation tax as we had a huge realestate bubble just burst here leaving many investors screwed. This is all Paul has to focus on here to win millions of votes.

The west gold coast running from Naples, through Sarasota and into Tampa, has millions of Very wealthy residents, that are already fired up wanting to get behind something that will bring relief in these areas. Most are Conservative Christian Republicans for anti-gun control too. Home schooling/ Pot smoking is also huge in this state and people want the government out of their personal lives. His message of government protecting individual liberty and privacy will also go over BIG!

If Paul could just set a date for a central area like Sarasota/Tampa, his meet up groups can make sure ads go out everywhere along the gold coast to get people to come hear him speak. This area knows how to work the press. It's a great excuse to give him tons of pre-and post press.

Naples could be a good middle ground between Tampa and Miami.

The Sarasota Meetup group is already aware of the primary bump up and pushing for Floridians to speed up the activity. One visit, anywhere in southern Florida, and the local news reports about it ,will help tremendously to put him on the map here.

BTW, Romney has his son doing comercials in Spanish to get the Mexican/Cuban vote.


Let them all see Paul coming here and let them blow through all of their campaign cash early trying to counter attack. We can do this on our end here with Paul having to spend nothing more then his way here. And if a visit or two from Paul forces them to compete, the rest of the Republican candidates will blow much of their own dough all giving the same old tired "More War spending" message. Remember Paul is the only anti war Republican Option for Republicans.

Florida likes it's loose gun laws too. illegal alien crime is so bad, suburban socker moms are packing heat. Another reason they will Love Paul when they hear about him if they havn't yet.

Cindy
07-06-2007, 10:48 PM
double post

Razmear
07-06-2007, 10:53 PM
Here is the current list of Primary dates, these are all still subject to change, and Florida is risking sanctions from the GOP and DEM parties for moving theirs before Feb 5.
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/calendar.asp?cycle=2008

Note that the South Carolina primary is on different days for Dems and Republicans, and that SC is the last primary before the 2/5 mega primary.

I'm sticking by my statement that SC is going to be a key to winning, and a 3 day weekend in the Upstate of SC sooner than later would do a lot to help RP's support and fundraising.

If he just took a walk around here ( http://jockeylot.com ) on any Saturday morning, he'd have another small army of supporters and get to meet the real folks of the Upstate.

eb

specsaregood
07-06-2007, 10:55 PM
//

Cindy
07-06-2007, 10:58 PM
Here is the current list of Primary dates, these are all still subject to change, and Florida is risking sanctions from the GOP and DEM parties for moving theirs before Feb 5.
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/calendar.asp?cycle=2008




Good! I hope they get in trouble for that sneaky move.

I told you all this states political scene was corrupt as all hell and We The People here are sick of it. Is there a Doctor in the house?:p

Razmear
07-06-2007, 11:03 PM
Well, they wont get in trouble, but your vote may count less because of it.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18783378/

Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee has threatened to take away half of Florida's delegates if the primary is held before Feb. 5. The Democratic National Committee said the state would lose 50 percent of its delegates and all its superdelegates. The DNC also said it would penalize candidates who campaign in Florida for a primary earlier than Feb. 5 by making them ineligible for receiving any of the state's delegates.

Cindy
07-06-2007, 11:19 PM
Wow!:eek: Thanks for posting that link. I need to look into more of this mess Florida has once again gotten itself into.

Remember the voting fiasco in Florida that took the win away from Gore and put it in the hands of Bush? This state is a political nightmare.

Joe Knows
07-06-2007, 11:21 PM
Rumor has it that Florida bumped it up, to give Paul less time to get to this state.

Cindy. The state legislature in Florida was talking about bumping up the primary even before Ron got in the race. I agree that Dr Paul should come to Florida. I would set him up with a pretty tight schedule of events for South Florida, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, and Tallahassee. He could blow through the state in 2 days and have thousands of people attend the events. On the day of the primary there will also be an initiative to allow people to vote on a super homestead exemption to reduce property taxes. A lot of people will vote to reduce taxes, so we need to tap into that sentiment. Since Ron Paul is anti-tax, he should do very well in Florida with just a minimal effort, provided he places in Iowa, NH, or SC.

There is one problem with Florida that most people are unaware of. PBS will host a Presidential Debate from Florida on January 23rd. This will have a huge impact on Florida voters just before the primary. They have already come out with polling requirements if you want to participate. They say they are announcing the requirements early so all the candidates will know. In reality the requirements are set to exclude Dr. Paul. In order to participate, you must have over 10% in one of two specific polls. Both polls are Old Media so they will not accurately reflect support. The kicker here is that the polls will be done prior to January 10. This means that Ron could win Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and still be excluded from the debate. There have been many candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire that only polled in single digits until election day. They got a bump in the polls because of their win. The way the Florida Debate is set up, you will not be able to count your bump.

Anyway, we will see what happens when the time gets closer. Here is a link to one of the stories about the debate.

http://www.tboblogs.com/index.php/news/story/pbs-plans-florida-presidential-primary-debates/

MozoVote
07-06-2007, 11:28 PM
Ya know, SC, GA, and FL are all reasonably close together in time frame. Paul should just get a van and make a tour of all of them. It's a gamble, but I think if he's going to win, he needs support in GA anyway, so he may as well tour there and hope he's made a pre-emptive strike on Super Tuesday.

Line up the speaking engagements in sensible order and it could be done over a couple of weeks in the fall. Hey, RP's may join him in a convoy. :D

Bro.Butch
07-06-2007, 11:29 PM
Lets look at the primary and caucus schedule for January and early February (as of now anyway):

Jan. 14 - Iowa caucuses
Jan. 19 - Nevada caucuses
Jan. 22 - New Hampshire Primary, Wyoming caucuses
Jan. 29 - Flordia Primary
Feb. 2 - South Carolina Primary

For RP to win the GOP nomination has to win five out of the six (hopefully he can do well in Florida but given the size of the state and money needed to compete I'm not going to hold my breath). These are small states with cheap media markets and three of them are caucuses that with a good turnout of support can be won.

So defintely RP should be in Nevada and New Hampshire this weekend and the Bay Area is good place to raise money because it has the kind of wealthy libertarians who would be in his corner.

But yes, by the end of this month and the first part of August he needs to be in Iowa. Right now the key is phone calling Iowans and having the meetup groups attend events to spread his name across the state. That's what we did last week.

Also, don't put too much stock in trips to Iowa equaling votes. Yes you need to be there but more importantly you need people on the ground working for you and that RP has. Tommy Thompson has been practically living in Iowa for the past year and a half and where is he in the polls? No better than RP and in some cases worse. The same with Brownback, Huckabee and Tancredo. Hell, Guliani has basically blown the state off and he still gets double-digit support there. McCain has just seven staffers on the ground in Iowa and practically no volunteers. You think that's going to help him? Candidates like Bruce Babbitt and Dick Gephardt and Paul Simon and many others have done the camp in Iowa routine over the years and its fallen short. Ultimately what will draw Iowans to RP is his message and his personality. Right now is the time to get the word out about RP and hopefully we can fill in the rest later.

Ghouliani hasn't blown the state off, he was campaigning there last week, his handlers are just smart enough to bypass this scam of a straw poll. He, McCain and Gilmore are bypassing the 8/11 straw poll. This is a scam to get money out of campaigns for the Iowa Rep. Party. Romney has bought support before (CPAC convention & SC straw poll) and he placed six & half million in his coffers from his personal bank account in the 2nd quarter. That will pretty well cover his massive victory in the Iowa scam straw poll ! This is a vote buying scheme and should be exposed for what it is. People are talking about 10,000 votes for RP at this scam. That's $350, 000 and if donated to the campaign it could be used on advertising before the REAL caucus when it really counts. Ghouliani & McCain are still in the real caucus. They are saving their cash to try and get the people to stand up for them in Jan. when it counts. They're just not going to waste money against Romney's bought media bonanza. When Romney is claiming his great victory they will be able to just say "who paid for the straw voters?

I would be willing to say 75% of Iowans don't know who Dr. Paul is. He needs to spend time in the state to let these people learn who he is. As for Babbit, Gephardt & Simon they weren't exactly Presidential material. Neither of stature or message. You do need volunteers, but do you honestly think right now Dr. Paul has people in all 99 counties of Iowa ? Tommy Thompson is working on that right now. It may not work for him, but he is working on it and I would be willing to wager he finishes in the top three in the straw poll. A candidate has to show interest in campaigning in Iowa, NH & even SC to get these peoples support. I mean Romney is worth over 150 million dollars and he is walking in an Iowa parade on wednesday(the same one as Bill & Hillary walked in by the way). It's just the way it's done in these early states.

You either get name I D by advertising your name called wholesale politics or
You stump the state campaigning face to face called retail politics. If you don't have money for advertising you must RETAIL to get name I D to get the votes...Volunteers can help retail for you but the voter needs to see or hear the candidate sometimes...

Badger Paul
07-06-2007, 11:32 PM
South Carolina, in my opinion is the ballgame. A RP win there all the Super Tuesday states will fall right off the tree for us.

But I think the campaign can afford to wait a little on SC and Florida until after the Iowa Straw Poll. That event RP has to do well in because it sets up everything else for the rest of the year and in the primaries as well.

MozoVote
07-06-2007, 11:33 PM
I think the campaign can afford to wait a little on SC and Florida until after the Iowa Straw Poll. That event RP has to do well in because it sets up everything else for the rest of the year and in the primaries as well.

I agree, and the settlement of Florida's date may help too. I'm sure the other campaigns want that resolved as well so it can't drag on too long.

Cindy
07-06-2007, 11:35 PM
Thanks for all of that information too. Any idea why they wanted to bump up their primary?

After I explore the other issue, I'll start posting stuff about it on the meetup Forums around here. I don't know how many know about that PBS debate and it's rules. Maybe we can flood PBS or whoever we have to with e-mails, or get the local media to report on it, to get those rules changed.

Sounds like Florida has bigger problems if we get hit with those sanctions.

All these laws and rules are enough to cause a severe headache.:( Is there a Doctor in the house?:p

CJLauderdale4
07-06-2007, 11:43 PM
The other primary is Florida. We moved our date to January 29.

BUT, I think we need to choose our battles wisely. We won't make it to 2008 if we don't handle our business in 2007.

Iowa and New Hampshire Straw Polls are CRUCIAL. Good presence in these polls will allow a candidate to continue on, and possibly gain more $$ from new donors or donors of candidates who will support Ron after dropping out.

If Ron swings through Florida, Nevada, and SC along the way, that's fine. But he needs to focus on the upcoming battles first, build on these successes, and then move on.

Joe Knows
07-06-2007, 11:46 PM
Thanks for all of that information too. Any idea why they wanted to bump up their primary?

Sounds like Florida has bigger problems if we get hit with those sanctions.

All these laws and rules are enough to cause a severe headache.:( Is there a Doctor in the house?:p

The legislature felt that the nominee is already chosen by March. They wanted all the candidates to come into the state early so Florida would have more of a choice. In other words, the State Reps and Sens could talk to the candidates and hopefully have more influence over a future President. The Republican Party has already resigned itself to having less delegates. The Democrats are trying to negotiate with the National Party saying, it's not our fault, We have a Republican controlled legislature. One little known aspect of this bill completely gutted the Florida resign to run law as it applys to Federal Candidates. It allows Charlie Crist to run for Vice President and be able to continue as governor. There is also another provision that chills political speech. It allows the chairman of the Democrat or Republican Parties to remove any person from any local executive committee for any reason. There are a lot of activist Republicans that are afraid to come out against the Bush administration in fear of reprisals from RPOF. They do not want to be removed from office. If you are interested in more details, you can check out Florida House Bill 537.

quickmike
07-06-2007, 11:46 PM
everyone seems to be overlooking something important here. Someone said that 75% of Iowans dont know who Ron Paul is.

This is how I see it.......

If only 1% of Iowans support Ron Paul (low estimate just for argument), that means for every 100 Iowans, theres one person that should be out there talking to 99 people about him. Is that too much to ask from RP supporters? If it is, then I would say we dont deserve to win in 2008 if we cant at least do that. Is it so hard to hand 99 people a flyer? I dont get it. Someone fill me in on what im missing here.

Shink
07-06-2007, 11:53 PM
http://www.imperialjets.com/What-Ron-Paul-is-Missing.html

I think this is VITAL, and the campaign needs to take them up on the offer! It'd allow them more interviews, more campaigning period. They are trying to stop him by prodding Thompson and Gingrich into running, they're trying to stop him by moving up all of the primaries so that his grassroots support can't move fast enough. I hope to hell they will just take the damn free jet already.

MozoVote
07-06-2007, 11:55 PM
One of my concerns from being too strong too early in Iowa, is that the other candidates will fire on him from 3 sides with all their money in a flood of negative ads.

Clinton came back from 3rd place in Iowa because he had a strong organization elsewhere.

Bob Dole won Iowa in 1988 and flatlined afterward.

I remember Dukakkis doing rather poorly in the early campaign in 1988... but he picked up the two biggest states on Super Tuesday, and by then most of the other candidates had spent all their money so he coasted to victory in the remaining states.

It's all in how you hedge your bets. You can't assume victory everywhere and need to be prepared to take a few punches too.

I should add, though... that Paul is not Dole. I think if Paul lost Iowa due to dirty tactics and lots of mud... he would not make the kinds of biting, mean spirited remarks that Dole was known for. He could keep his cool and push the campaign on.