Show me evidence Ron will win New Hampshire

[Real_CaGeD]

Make a compelling argument.:cool:

[Bladestunner316]

Prove to me he wont!! :)

[maxmerkel]

he does not want to win. don't peak too early.

[RevolutionSD]

Let's say Paul has 8% in the polls on election day, and Romney has 30%.
Typical turnout is around 6% for GOP primaries.
But most every Paul supporter will turn out.
So let's say he gets 80% turnout, while Romney gets the average: 6%.

Paul wins.

[VRP08]

Make a compelling argument.:cool:


JUST LOOK AROUND!:D

[Real_CaGeD]

Is that all I get from grassroots central? Or is this all you have?

I am weary of this forum. I think I will continue to gather Intel from the enemy, Redstate.

[RevolutionSD]

Is that all I get from grassroots central? Or is this all you have?

I am weary of this forum. I think I will continue to gather Intel from the enemy, Redstate.

I gave you a good argument!

[beobeli]

troll

[Bladestunner316]

You bait us we dont give the response you want and you complain about being worn out when you dont get what you want. Maybe you should take a break and cool down for a bit, it does help.

[VRP08]

Is that all I get from grassroots central? Or is this all you have?

I am weary of this forum. I think I will continue to gather Intel from the enemy, Redstate.


Bubye!;)

[Paul4Prez]

Let's say Paul has 8% in the polls on election day, and Romney has 30%.
Typical turnout is around 6% for GOP primaries.
But most every Paul supporter will turn out.
So let's say he gets 80% turnout, while Romney gets the average: 6%.

Paul wins.

That's been my theory all along, but turnout in New Hampshire is generally much higher than the national average. Even though Ron Paul is relatively more popular there, his best chance to actually win in the early states is probably in Nevada, with a poorly attended caucus.

[kushaze]

We have rigged the election in New Hampshire, so Ron Paul will win by a landslide.

[steph3n]

I am going to NH on christmas so that is why we will in, because of efforts of supporters like me :D

[curtisag]

First of all, lets examine the 1996 New Hampshire Primary and observe what happened. Pat Buchanan (arguably the most pro-Ron major Republican Presidential candidate in recent times) won the New Hampshire primary and the polls were incorrect. I studied the polling just before the Primary, and Pat was polling at 14%. However, Pat ended up winning the whole thing with a whopping 28%. The reason for this is his supporters were more determined, enthusiastic, and dedicated (much like Ron supporters are). His supporters were obviously twice as likely to show up to the polls, but traditional polling does not take this into account. They assume all voters are equally likely to vote, irregardless of whom they support. This is the fatal flaw of traditional polling.

Now lets examine the other candidates. Their support is wide, but not very deep. This means his supporters are very wishy washy compared to Ron supporters. The vast majority cannot be counted on to turn out to vote.

It's true that most people in general do NOT vote in Primaries. Among registered voters, only about 6% can be counted on to actually vote. This is where Ron's phenomenal and dedicated supporters come in. Ron is currently around 8% in NH. Lets assume he only picks up a few more % points and he's at 12% the day before the Primary. Well if only 25% of his supporters actually vote, he completely blows away all the other candidates with somewhere between 30 and 50% of the vote. Republicans in general this election cycle are not happy about their choices for President, so the turnout among neo-con supporters may be even lower than usual.

Furthermore, independents can vote in the NH Primary which will help us immensely. Independents are not nearly as brainwashed by the neo-cons. McCain won New Hampshire vs. Bush in 2000 with the help of indies. And all indies are behind the idea we need real change in this country. Paul is the only change candidate in the race.

In closing, read my signature below :).

[fortilite]

Show me evidence you have done anything of any use for the grassroots.

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

Pat Buchanan 1996

[RonPaulFever]

This just in: New Hampshire is replacing their old voting machines with new ones from a brand new company called Diepaul that will be delivering the machines via blimp over the next two weeks.

[jblosser]

He's catching on, I'm telling ya!

[Shaun]

He doesn't need to win.
The Mainstrema media are doing such a great job for us. I hope they keep ignoring us. Please, God, let them keep ignoring him.
Why? Because it sets a low bar on the expectations and then every single time he beats those expectations what registers in people's brains is " ah, he's doing better than everyone predicted..." and that's where we are now strong. All we have to do is keep doing better than people estimate and pretty soon it will wind up with RP being the MO candidate.
So, third in Iowa; just fine.
Second or third in NH; just fine.
Carolina; top three....
This whole thing is going to come down to Super Tuesday and by then one or more of the top tier gang will be gone. Ron, will have more money than anyone can imagine, the crisis in the economy will be front and center and that will open many more doors of endorsement for Paul.
So, relax, let's just keep beating expectations, hope that the MSM continues to ignore him and BANG!! out of nowhere our champion can triumph.
Got to go now, I'm off to your favourite country; China.
I'll be posting from there.
Thank you to everyone for all that you are doing for this great country.
Shaun.

[Alabama Supporter]

You obviously haven't seen RP's commercials. They are pure cinemagic and those alone will propel us to victory!

[N13]

Make a compelling argument.:cool:

Go ahead, vote for one of the other candidates. :eek:

Then for the rest of your life you get to live with the knowledge that you betrayed your country.

You might not see it now, but with any of the others as president, you'll find out what happens to our nation when the core problems are neglected.

[AceNZ]

Asking for "evidence" that anyone will win anything at this point is just silly.

If that's what you want, tune in to the MSM and they'll feed you some pablum that will taste great.

If you're honestly looking for reasoned arguments as to how RP can win, then here's a tidbit to get things started:

Ron Paul Wins NH Straw Poll with 73% of the votes
http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/014783.html

[nyrgoal99]

Make a compelling argument.:cool:

I think the polling is interesting. The fact is, and it has been seen here, about 90% of Paul supporters didnt vote in the last primary. This means they do not get polled. So I agree, if RP is say 9% in NH, he will get way more support than this, maybe double. From what I hear on the ground in NH, there are Ron Paul signs everywhere, and the flag waving this weekend was great, with everyone giving the people thumbs up, ect.

Ron Paul is going to shock people. Now is that going to be getting 10%+ in every state, 15, 20, winning a few states, I really am not sure. There will be a suprise though.

[max]

He doesn't need to win.

So, third in Iowa; just fine.
Second or third in NH; just fine.
Carolina; top three....
This whole thing is going to come down to Super Tuesday and by then one or more of the top tier gang will be gone.
Thank you to everyone for all that you are doing for this great country.
Shaun.

no way...If RP doesnt win either Iowa...NH..or SC....it's over...

by super tuesday the field will have been narrowed (McCain and maybe Fred will be toast)....so the neo con vote gets consolidated among 3 others instead of 5

[Satyricon]

First of all, lets examine the 1996 New Hampshire Primary and observe what happened. Pat Buchanan (arguably the most pro-Ron major Republican Presidential candidate in recent times) won the New Hampshire primary and the polls were incorrect. I studied the polling just before the Primary, and Pat was polling at 14%. However, Pat ended up winning the whole thing with a whopping 28%. The reason for this is his supporters were more determined, enthusiastic, and dedicated (much like Ron supporters are). His supporters were obviously twice as likely to show up to the polls, but traditional polling does not take this into account. They assume all voters are equally likely to vote, irregardless of whom they support. This is the fatal flaw of traditional polling.

Now lets examine the other candidates. Their support is wide, but not very deep. This means his supporters are very wishy washy compared to Ron supporters. The vast majority cannot be counted on to turn out to vote.

It's true that most people in general do NOT vote in Primaries. Among registered voters, only about 6% can be counted on to actually vote. This is where Ron's phenomenal and dedicated supporters come in. Ron is currently around 8% in NH. Lets assume he only picks up a few more % points and he's at 12% the day before the Primary. Well if only 25% of his supporters actually vote, he completely blows away all the other candidates with somewhere between 30 and 50% of the vote. Republicans in general this election cycle are not happy about their choices for President, so the turnout among neo-con supporters may be even lower than usual.

Furthermore, independents can vote in the NH Primary which will help us immensely. Independents are not nearly as brainwashed by the neo-cons. McCain won New Hampshire vs. Bush in 2000 with the help of indies. And all indies are behind the idea we need real change in this country. Paul is the only change candidate in the race.

In closing, read my signature below :).

Fantastic post. I think RP has a chance to dominate the open primaries.

The key will be to get those of us in closed primaries to change party affiliation and everything else.

I can't see anyone who donated to this campaign simply shrugging off coming out to the polls, unless its a late primary and the vote make much of a difference anyway.

That's why its IMPERATIVE that those of you in early primary states do whatever you can to come out and drag people with you. If we can get good showings in these states, I think it'll pick up more and & more steam if people get the impression that RP really CAN win this whole thing.

[idiom]

The field has to narrow itself voluntarily.

Rudy is planning on losing the early states wholesale. No reason we can't do the same and survive.

[Maverick]

First of all, lets examine the 1996 New Hampshire Primary and observe what happened. Pat Buchanan (arguably the most pro-Ron major Republican Presidential candidate in recent times) won the New Hampshire primary and the polls were incorrect.


Furthermore, independents can vote in the NH Primary which will help us immensely. Independents are not nearly as brainwashed by the neo-cons. McCain won New Hampshire vs. Bush in 2000 with the help of indies.

I just have to say that I'm not that enthusiastic about these two examples. I appreciate the fact that these candidates won the NH primary even though the polls at the time said otherwise, however the thing to remember is that neither of them actually won the nomination. Buchanan lost the nomination to Dole, and McCain lost it to Bush, despite their successes in New Hampshire.

So even if Ron Paul wins NH, will that even be relevant?

[Travis]

http://ronpaulrevolution.org

We are working our asses off non stop for 2 weeks before Christmas and then 2 weeks after right up until the Primary.

The Revolution has hit NH with full force.

[NerveShocker]

Our support is nation-wide.. look at all the straw polls that the media has been completely ignoring. We have more meet-up groups than all the GOP candidates combined. We've collected more money this quarter than ANY GOP candidate. Our money coming into the campaign has increased by 300% in a month, but our poll numbers have not? I guess those same amount of people must have won the lotto. Every single sign you look at suggests we're doing better except one thing... what you hear from the "mainstream media" (Old Media) and from their "polls". If they were honest they would show the real polls where real people showed up and caused Ron Paul to win over 21 states straw polls. Then again... if they were honest a lot of things would be different... remember those Weapons of Mass Destruction?

[mwkaufman]

I really think Iowa is key to winning New Hampshire. NH primary has sick 44% turnout, Iowa around 7%. The hope is we are around 10% in Iowa, and neither Huckabee or Romney are over 35%. 25% might seem huge, but with 7% turnout, Paul can win with his enthusiastic supporters:

Huckabee 35% Support 10% Turnout
Romney 29% Support 5% Turnout
Thompson 12% Support 15% Turnout
Paul 10% Support 40% Turnout
Rudy 8% Support 3% Turnout
McCain 5% Support 3% Turnout
Tancredo 3% Support 9% Turnout

Which comes out...

Paul 34%
Huckabee 30%
Thompson 16%
Romney 13%
Tancredo 3%
Rudy 2%
McCain 2%

A few things happen here, Paul gets a huge boost, Huckabee is a bit disappointed with such a big lead in the polls, but not terrible, Thompson gets a boost thanks to his supporters, who I believe are the second most enthusiastic behind us. Romney, Giuliani and McCain get smacked around bad. Their support is too soft for Iowa. This hurts the three of them in NH while being a huge boost to Paul and slight boosts to Huckabee and Thompson.

Now, we get to New Hampshire:

Romney 26% Support 40% Turnout
McCain 21% Support 60% Turnout
Giuliani 18% Support 30% Turnout
Paul 16% Support 80% Turnout
Huckabee 15% Support 50% Turnout
Thompson 3% Support 50% Turnout

Which comes out...

Paul 26%
McCain 25%
Romney 21%
Huckabee 15%
Giuliani 11%
Thompson 2%

I had just made up bogus numbers, but I was surprised how close it was between McCain and Paul despite Paul supporters turning out 30% more. If Paul can get to a similar position in New Hampshire by just finishing 3rd in Iowa, then that's a scenario also, but obviously a win would be huge.

[LibertyEagle]

Shaun,

Have a nice trip. :)

[Real_CaGeD]

I think the polling is interesting. The fact is, and it has been seen here, about 90% of Paul supporters didnt vote in the last primary. This means they do not get polled. So I agree, if RP is say 9% in NH, he will get way more support than this, maybe double. From what I hear on the ground in NH, there are Ron Paul signs everywhere, and the flag waving this weekend was great, with everyone giving the people thumbs up, ect.

Ron Paul is going to shock people. Now is that going to be getting 10%+ in every state, 15, 20, winning a few states, I really am not sure. There will be a suprise though.

Have you any data on party registration to coincide?

[ronpaulyourmom]

Let's say Paul has 8% in the polls on election day, and Romney has 30%.
Typical turnout is around 6% for GOP primaries.
But most every Paul supporter will turn out.
So let's say he gets 80% turnout, while Romney gets the average: 6%.

Paul wins.

Not to be a bummer dude but this is a faulty argument. The polls dont poll the general population, they poll "likely voters". They've already narrowed down the poll participants to about a 20% swath of the population (pulled that 20% out of my a** btw), so if you want to do that analysis do it with some smaller numbers. :)

[JAlli41]

For anyone really worried about polls let me remind you of the story of the election of 1936... in this election Literary Digest sent out 10 million questionnaires to Americans to do a poll to find out who the would win the election, Roosevelt or Alf Landon. They received 2 million answered questionnaires back and ran with the story only a few weeks before the election, Alf Landon would win the election with a whopping 370 electoral vote landslide over Roosevelt. A few weeks later Roosevelt won the election with 523 electoral votes to Alf Landon's 8... the entire way scientific polling was done was changed after that election...its very likely that polling may have to be changed again...

[Real_CaGeD]

Folks, go and spend some time at Redstate. You will soon learn that heavy divisions tear at the Republican party.

The fact that Redstate banned all the R base supporters of Ron Paul and called it "spam" is a sure sign of life within this campaign. We all understand that "RP spam" is just denial of the overwhelming support garnered by our candidate.

This is my tiny tidbit of the compelling argument.


If you would rather let Redstate "wither on the vine", I understand. However, a weekly review of the GOP party sentiment is a valuable asset to this grassroots movement.

Next topic of my future thread, "Battle within the GOP".

[Richandler]

Apparently McCain's support is jumping in NH and he has no money. This only proves that all this money bomb crap never mattered. Getting off the computer and out there, not trying to sell Paul but spreading his ideas virally. Education first, then the support will come. You need to visit places like lewrockwell.com and mises.org. Educate yourself before you go rambling about Paul. So many people come here clueless on how to respond to attacks. That is our biggest downfall. We are grabbing voters at a 2-days per vote pace.

Get educated, spread the info and Paul will catch on.

[Austin]

Let's say Paul has 8% in the polls on election day, and Romney has 30%.
Typical turnout is around 6% for GOP primaries.
But most every Paul supporter will turn out.
So let's say he gets 80% turnout, while Romney gets the average: 6%.

Paul wins.

The 6% turnout was only for 2004, because Bush didn't have any competition running against him.

[ronpaulyourmom]

Make a compelling argument.:cool:

Compelling eh... how about an analysis of a FOX NEWS poll? ;)
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/FOX_NH-2_DEC_RELEASE_WEB.pdf

Lets start with the standings:
Romney - 33%
McCain - 20%
Giuliani - 16%
Huckabee - 11%
Paul - 8%
Don't know - 8%

Point #1:
31% of Romney voters, a large chunk, have McCain as their second choice. Polls are showing a surge for McCain in NH, and this is likely to occur at the expense of Romney. In short, McCain has a chance to tighten the race and create a window for Ron Paul to take first. (but it also makes it harder for Ron Paul to take 2nd)

Point #2:
Ron Paul draws 12% support from the male vote, and 4% from the female vote, which leads to an average of 8%. Notice the flaw here, the pollster assumes that an equal number of men and women will vote in the republican primary. However, this report from Rasmussen suggests a far different possibility:

Clinton's effect on the gender voting demographics. (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/clinton_wins_republican_women_but_loses_democratic _men)


It looks as if, quite simply, more men are going to show up at the republican polls. This isn't for certain because the Rasmussen story was for the general election, but given the tightness of the democratic race it's not hard to imagine the scenario playing out in the primaries. Ron Paul, who is the most disproportionately male supported candidate in the race, stands to benefit from this the most. Romney, the most disproportionately female supported candidate in the race, stands to lose the most. This again narrows the field.

Point #3:
The whole cell phone thing. It's way overblown by most supporters, but it's undoubtedly still playing a role here somehow. We know that the greatest effect here is with younger people, and the fox poll shows that Ron Paul gets most of his support from this group, while McCain and Romney get the least from this group. All said, the whole thing is impossible to quantify, but lets just recognize it.

Point #4:
The poll shows that 88% of Ron Paul supporters are certain to vote for him, making him essentially fire proof to any sort of attacks from other candidates. This indicates that any momentum gain from a good showing in Iowa will be almost instantly firewalled in NH, especially since he performs the best in the #1 category of standing up for what he believes in.

Point #5:
It's very often the case that newly registered voters and 3rd party voters are not included on the calling list for the data sampling. It would not surprise me if this were the case in the Fox poll.

Point #6:
January 8th is a Tuesday. If we can get high turnout then it might be possible to add something like 10% to our totals. Pat B. did just that when he ran, and we can too. Looking at the poll, McCain and Romney have high "may change mind" numbers in comparison to Ron Paul. Of course "May change mind" is another way of saying, "I haven't researched enough just yet" which can just as easily turn into somebody staying home on a cold Tuesday in January even though they told the pollster a month ago that they would uphold their civic duty. People like to talk the talk, but Ron Paul supporters are gonna walk the walk.

Conclusion:
Paul's support is currently 8%, we'll probably climb to 12% by the time we hit Iowa. A strong showing in Iowa could boost us to 18%. Add in our invisible unregistered by polling support base, and we hit 25%. Romney will hit 40% in the polls after he wins Iowa, but when you factor out his female bias he goes down to 35% in reality. McCain will have by this point hit about 30% as well, not going any higher because of his poor showing in Iowa.

From there we rely on turnout to turn 25% into 36% and take the narrow win.

[steph3n]

http://ronpaulrevolution.org

We are working our asses off non stop for 2 weeks before Christmas and then 2 weeks after right up until the Primary.

The Revolution has hit NH with full force.

are you cooperating with operation live free or die? I'd hate to hit the same house twice and piss people off!

[steph3n]

Folks, go and spend some time at Redstate. You will soon learn that heavy divisions tear at the Republican party.

The fact that Redstate banned all the R base supporters of Ron Paul and called it "spam" is a sure sign of life within this campaign. We all understand that "RP spam" is just denial of the overwhelming support garnered by our candidate.

This is my tiny tidbit of the compelling argument.


If you would rather let Redstate "wither on the vine", I understand. However, a weekly review of the GOP party sentiment is a valuable asset to this grassroots movement.

Next topic of my future thread, "Battle within the GOP".

divisions such as those at redstate are our single BIGGEST benefit.

[jcizzle]

The 6% turnout was only for 2004, because Bush didn't have any competition running against him.

In 2000 NH was at 26% and most others were between 5-15%.

http://american.edu/ia/cdem/csae/pdfs/csae000309.pdf

[Blooberry777]

Don't waste your time. Lead them to the water then let them decide if they want to drink.

Freedom is a choice, they can find it in Paul. Losing is not an option, we will only believe in winning. If this person has to question Paul, he is not on our side, obviously an outsider picking our brains. This must be media people asking those kinds of questions. They are paid off to censor Paul & the supporters, they are communists, they are freedom squelchers. Again don't waste your time with commies.

[Original_Intent]

no way...If RP doesnt win either Iowa...NH..or SC....it's over...

by super tuesday the field will have been narrowed (McCain and maybe Fred will be toast)....so the neo con vote gets consolidated among 3 others instead of 5

+1

[VoluntaryMan]

I think I will continue to gather Intel from the enemy, Redstate.

There is no intelligence at derState. It's a wasteland.

[Real_CaGeD]

divisions such as those at redstate are our single BIGGEST benefit.

Absolutely, this is why we REPUBLICANS that support Ron Paul need to campaign for REPUBLICAN BASE.

"I am a Republican that supports Ron Paul for the GOP nomination."

[Cardinal Red]

QFT


He doesn't need to win.
The Mainstrema media are doing such a great job for us. I hope they keep ignoring us. Please, God, let them keep ignoring him.
Why? Because it sets a low bar on the expectations and then every single time he beats those expectations what registers in people's brains is " ah, he's doing better than everyone predicted..." and that's where we are now strong. All we have to do is keep doing better than people estimate and pretty soon it will wind up with RP being the MO candidate.
So, third in Iowa; just fine.
Second or third in NH; just fine.
Carolina; top three....
This whole thing is going to come down to Super Tuesday and by then one or more of the top tier gang will be gone. Ron, will have more money than anyone can imagine, the crisis in the economy will be front and center and that will open many more doors of endorsement for Paul.
So, relax, let's just keep beating expectations, hope that the MSM continues to ignore him and BANG!! out of nowhere our champion can triumph.
Got to go now, I'm off to your favourite country; China.
I'll be posting from there.
Thank you to everyone for all that you are doing for this great country.
Shaun.