LibertyCzar
07-04-2007, 01:07 PM
WARNING: This post contains heavy elements of math. :eek:
I've just spent the past couple hours crunching numbers. I admit, I was a bit floored at the article saying that the fundraising for the quarter could be as low as $1,500,000. But I think we can all agree it is at least $2,000,000. So that is the figure I have used in my calculations.
I hope everything is correct here, but inevitably, I probably made some sort of error. This will give a general idea, however, of the perspective I am trying to point out.
NOTE: All totals for future Quarters are just projections. The $2,000,000 for the Second Quarter is also just an estimate. If the number is higher, that will only mean good things for Ron Paul. :)
PART ONE: Ron Paul's Numbers
First Quarter Cash Raised: $639,989
Second Quarter Cash Raised: $2,000,000
Fundraising Quarter Increase: 312% plus
Math: 2,000,000 / 639,989 = 3.125
Projected future increase to 200% for the Third Quarter: $4,000,000
Projected future increase to 150% for the Fourth Quarter: $6,000,000
TOTAL 2007 Receipts (without Federal Funds): $12,639,989
Math: 4,000,000 and 6,000,000 = $10,000,000
Math: 2,000,000 and 639,989 = $2,639,989
This is a general approximation, and just an idea of the inflation effect of fundraising. To assume a general average inflation applied to both 2004 and 2000 elections of 7.5% total each election, annual Total 2007 Receipts:
1. In 2004: $11,758,129.30
2. In 2000: $10,991,294.78
Math: $12,639,989 / 1.075 = $11,758,129.30
Math: $12,639,989 / 1.150 = $10,991,294.78
Amount to use to compare to Ralph Nader: $11,374,712.04
Math: (11,758,129.30 + 10,991,294.78) / 2 = $11,374,712.04
PART TWO: Compared to Ralph Nader
See Part Three for details. Combined receipts for 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, without Federal Funds: $11,478,942
Math: 4,567,299 and 8,433,778 = $13,001,077
Math: 798,827 and 723,308 = $1,522,135
Adjusted for the same inflation applied to Ron Paul: $11,216,030.23
Math: 4,567,229 - 798,827 = 3,768,402
Math: 3,768,402 / 1.075 = 3,505,490.23
Math: 3,768,402 - 3,505,490.23 = 262,911.77
Math: 11,478,942 - 262,911.77 = 11,216,030.23
It should be noted that this number includes General Election fundraising, while Ron Paul's number includes only 2007 Primary fundraising.
PART THREE: Other numbers for 2004 and 2000 elections
A. Ralph Nader (2004) I.
1. Cash Raised: $4,567,299
... a) Including Federal Funds: $798,827
... b) Individual contributions: 55%
2. Cash Spent: $4,549,032
B. Michael Badnarik (2004) Lib.
1. Cash Raised: $1,093,013
... a) Including No Federal Funds
... b) Individual Contributions: 94%
2. Cash Spent: $1,073,940
C. Michael Peroutka (2004) Con.
1. Cash Raised: $709,087
... a) Including No Federal Funds
... b) Individual Contributions: 36% (self, 63%)
2. Cash Spent: $708,221
D. David Cobb (2004) Gr.
1. Cash Raised: $496,658
... a) Including No Federal Funds
... b) Individual Contributions: 100%
2. Cash Spent: $385,707
E. George Bush, R.
1. 2004 Federal Funds: $74,620,000 @ 20%
2. 2000 Federal Funds: $67,560,000 @ 35%
F. John Kerry and Al Gore, D.
1. 2004 Federal Funds: $74,620,000 @ 23%
2. 2000 Federal Funds: $83,016,084 @ 62%
G. Pat Buchanan (2000) Ref.
1. Cash Raised: $38,806,146
... a) Including Federal Funds: $16,635,624
... b) Individual Contributions: 28.6%
2. Cash Spent: $39,162,976
H. Ralph Nader (2000) Gr.
1. Cash Raised: $8,433,778
... a) Including Federal Funds: $723,308
... b) Individual Contributions: 84.6%
2. Cash Spent: $7,771,117
I. Harry Browne (2000) Lib.
1. Cash Raised: $2,131,301
... a) Including No Federal Funds
... b) Individual Contributions: 99.2%
2. Cash Spent: $2,156,862
PART FOUR: Ending Comment
That took some time to do. But hopefully, this puts fundraising in some perspective. These numbers don't even begin to include the benefits of the internet, and grassroots efforts. Ron Paul has achieved much already without having to spend a dime. Other candidates with a weaker message need to spend millions just to try to achieve gains similar to those received for free by Ron Paul. :D :cool: :D :cool:
I've just spent the past couple hours crunching numbers. I admit, I was a bit floored at the article saying that the fundraising for the quarter could be as low as $1,500,000. But I think we can all agree it is at least $2,000,000. So that is the figure I have used in my calculations.
I hope everything is correct here, but inevitably, I probably made some sort of error. This will give a general idea, however, of the perspective I am trying to point out.
NOTE: All totals for future Quarters are just projections. The $2,000,000 for the Second Quarter is also just an estimate. If the number is higher, that will only mean good things for Ron Paul. :)
PART ONE: Ron Paul's Numbers
First Quarter Cash Raised: $639,989
Second Quarter Cash Raised: $2,000,000
Fundraising Quarter Increase: 312% plus
Math: 2,000,000 / 639,989 = 3.125
Projected future increase to 200% for the Third Quarter: $4,000,000
Projected future increase to 150% for the Fourth Quarter: $6,000,000
TOTAL 2007 Receipts (without Federal Funds): $12,639,989
Math: 4,000,000 and 6,000,000 = $10,000,000
Math: 2,000,000 and 639,989 = $2,639,989
This is a general approximation, and just an idea of the inflation effect of fundraising. To assume a general average inflation applied to both 2004 and 2000 elections of 7.5% total each election, annual Total 2007 Receipts:
1. In 2004: $11,758,129.30
2. In 2000: $10,991,294.78
Math: $12,639,989 / 1.075 = $11,758,129.30
Math: $12,639,989 / 1.150 = $10,991,294.78
Amount to use to compare to Ralph Nader: $11,374,712.04
Math: (11,758,129.30 + 10,991,294.78) / 2 = $11,374,712.04
PART TWO: Compared to Ralph Nader
See Part Three for details. Combined receipts for 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, without Federal Funds: $11,478,942
Math: 4,567,299 and 8,433,778 = $13,001,077
Math: 798,827 and 723,308 = $1,522,135
Adjusted for the same inflation applied to Ron Paul: $11,216,030.23
Math: 4,567,229 - 798,827 = 3,768,402
Math: 3,768,402 / 1.075 = 3,505,490.23
Math: 3,768,402 - 3,505,490.23 = 262,911.77
Math: 11,478,942 - 262,911.77 = 11,216,030.23
It should be noted that this number includes General Election fundraising, while Ron Paul's number includes only 2007 Primary fundraising.
PART THREE: Other numbers for 2004 and 2000 elections
A. Ralph Nader (2004) I.
1. Cash Raised: $4,567,299
... a) Including Federal Funds: $798,827
... b) Individual contributions: 55%
2. Cash Spent: $4,549,032
B. Michael Badnarik (2004) Lib.
1. Cash Raised: $1,093,013
... a) Including No Federal Funds
... b) Individual Contributions: 94%
2. Cash Spent: $1,073,940
C. Michael Peroutka (2004) Con.
1. Cash Raised: $709,087
... a) Including No Federal Funds
... b) Individual Contributions: 36% (self, 63%)
2. Cash Spent: $708,221
D. David Cobb (2004) Gr.
1. Cash Raised: $496,658
... a) Including No Federal Funds
... b) Individual Contributions: 100%
2. Cash Spent: $385,707
E. George Bush, R.
1. 2004 Federal Funds: $74,620,000 @ 20%
2. 2000 Federal Funds: $67,560,000 @ 35%
F. John Kerry and Al Gore, D.
1. 2004 Federal Funds: $74,620,000 @ 23%
2. 2000 Federal Funds: $83,016,084 @ 62%
G. Pat Buchanan (2000) Ref.
1. Cash Raised: $38,806,146
... a) Including Federal Funds: $16,635,624
... b) Individual Contributions: 28.6%
2. Cash Spent: $39,162,976
H. Ralph Nader (2000) Gr.
1. Cash Raised: $8,433,778
... a) Including Federal Funds: $723,308
... b) Individual Contributions: 84.6%
2. Cash Spent: $7,771,117
I. Harry Browne (2000) Lib.
1. Cash Raised: $2,131,301
... a) Including No Federal Funds
... b) Individual Contributions: 99.2%
2. Cash Spent: $2,156,862
PART FOUR: Ending Comment
That took some time to do. But hopefully, this puts fundraising in some perspective. These numbers don't even begin to include the benefits of the internet, and grassroots efforts. Ron Paul has achieved much already without having to spend a dime. Other candidates with a weaker message need to spend millions just to try to achieve gains similar to those received for free by Ron Paul. :D :cool: :D :cool: