We Need Some Fundraising Perspective

[LibertyCzar]

WARNING: This post contains heavy elements of math. :eek:

I've just spent the past couple hours crunching numbers. I admit, I was a bit floored at the article saying that the fundraising for the quarter could be as low as $1,500,000. But I think we can all agree it is at least $2,000,000. So that is the figure I have used in my calculations.

I hope everything is correct here, but inevitably, I probably made some sort of error. This will give a general idea, however, of the perspective I am trying to point out.

NOTE: All totals for future Quarters are just projections. The $2,000,000 for the Second Quarter is also just an estimate. If the number is higher, that will only mean good things for Ron Paul. :)

PART ONE: Ron Paul's Numbers

First Quarter Cash Raised: $639,989
Second Quarter Cash Raised: $2,000,000
Fundraising Quarter Increase: 312% plus


Math: 2,000,000 / 639,989 = 3.125

Projected future increase to 200% for the Third Quarter: $4,000,000
Projected future increase to 150% for the Fourth Quarter: $6,000,000
TOTAL 2007 Receipts (without Federal Funds): $12,639,989


Math: 4,000,000 and 6,000,000 = $10,000,000
Math: 2,000,000 and 639,989 = $2,639,989

This is a general approximation, and just an idea of the inflation effect of fundraising. To assume a general average inflation applied to both 2004 and 2000 elections of 7.5% total each election, annual Total 2007 Receipts:
1. In 2004: $11,758,129.30
2. In 2000: $10,991,294.78


Math: $12,639,989 / 1.075 = $11,758,129.30
Math: $12,639,989 / 1.150 = $10,991,294.78

Amount to use to compare to Ralph Nader: $11,374,712.04


Math: (11,758,129.30 + 10,991,294.78) / 2 = $11,374,712.04

PART TWO: Compared to Ralph Nader

See Part Three for details. Combined receipts for 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, without Federal Funds: $11,478,942


Math: 4,567,299 and 8,433,778 = $13,001,077
Math: 798,827 and 723,308 = $1,522,135

Adjusted for the same inflation applied to Ron Paul: $11,216,030.23


Math: 4,567,229 - 798,827 = 3,768,402
Math: 3,768,402 / 1.075 = 3,505,490.23
Math: 3,768,402 - 3,505,490.23 = 262,911.77
Math: 11,478,942 - 262,911.77 = 11,216,030.23

It should be noted that this number includes General Election fundraising, while Ron Paul's number includes only 2007 Primary fundraising.

PART THREE: Other numbers for 2004 and 2000 elections

A. Ralph Nader (2004) I.

1. Cash Raised: $4,567,299
... a) Including Federal Funds: $798,827
... b) Individual contributions: 55%
2. Cash Spent: $4,549,032

B. Michael Badnarik (2004) Lib.

1. Cash Raised: $1,093,013
... a) Including No Federal Funds
... b) Individual Contributions: 94%
2. Cash Spent: $1,073,940

C. Michael Peroutka (2004) Con.

1. Cash Raised: $709,087
... a) Including No Federal Funds
... b) Individual Contributions: 36% (self, 63%)
2. Cash Spent: $708,221

D. David Cobb (2004) Gr.

1. Cash Raised: $496,658
... a) Including No Federal Funds
... b) Individual Contributions: 100%
2. Cash Spent: $385,707

E. George Bush, R.

1. 2004 Federal Funds: $74,620,000 @ 20%
2. 2000 Federal Funds: $67,560,000 @ 35%

F. John Kerry and Al Gore, D.

1. 2004 Federal Funds: $74,620,000 @ 23%
2. 2000 Federal Funds: $83,016,084 @ 62%

G. Pat Buchanan (2000) Ref.

1. Cash Raised: $38,806,146
... a) Including Federal Funds: $16,635,624
... b) Individual Contributions: 28.6%
2. Cash Spent: $39,162,976

H. Ralph Nader (2000) Gr.

1. Cash Raised: $8,433,778
... a) Including Federal Funds: $723,308
... b) Individual Contributions: 84.6%
2. Cash Spent: $7,771,117

I. Harry Browne (2000) Lib.

1. Cash Raised: $2,131,301
... a) Including No Federal Funds
... b) Individual Contributions: 99.2%
2. Cash Spent: $2,156,862

PART FOUR: Ending Comment

That took some time to do. But hopefully, this puts fundraising in some perspective. These numbers don't even begin to include the benefits of the internet, and grassroots efforts. Ron Paul has achieved much already without having to spend a dime. Other candidates with a weaker message need to spend millions just to try to achieve gains similar to those received for free by Ron Paul. :D :cool: :D :cool:

[LibertyCzar]

Oh, and I got the 2008, 2004, and 2000 numbers from this website: http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp

I'm hoping this is an encouragement. I didn't even get into cash spent for Ron Paul, but he only spent $115,070 in the first quarter, and I can't imagine him spending more than a million dollars in the second quarter.

[Lord Xar]

Though I agree that Ron Paul has spent less to get more marketing and such via his grassroots campaign -- I think at this point its just catch up, to the already "promoted" persons. I was hoping he would raise more.

[LibertyCzar]

Here's the way I see it. The supposed "frontrunners" with the millions of dollars are waging a campaign that doesn't factor in Ron Paul. So we have an advantage. Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani and John McCain will spend every last dime smearing each other trying to get that nomination. But how much of their millions will be spent to counter Ron Paul? I don't think much. They will only cause themselves grief and they will knock themselves out. Then Ron Paul will be one of the last men standing, and get himself Delegates.

[LibertyCzar]

I had hoped this would be useful and encouraging information.

[Lord Xar]

Well it is.

I just went on ebay and bought a shirt and some car stickers. I will not let up.

I think that the fever we all have is typical because we care so much for America that sometimes when expectations don't come up to where we want them, we feel deflated. If we didn't care, we wouldn't care - does that make sense?

I will keep pushing forward and get the word out. I have gotten my brother on board, and I am working on my democrate mother :-).

I just hope that this fever will keep rising and push forward.

I still feel that we need to consolidate the meetup clans and have everyone working individually as well as a cohesive unit.

[Dustancostine]

Keep it up. Remember word of mouth advertising is exponential.

First me.
Then my Independent Father.
Then my Mother.
Then my Wife.
Then my two sisters. (One just turned 18, the other had never voted)
Then my aunt.
Then my Brother and his friend last night
Then my cousin and his wife.
And yesterday my Grandmother, who is a Texas Southern Democrat and has never voted for a Republican in her 71 years of life, asked me to get her some more infromation about Ron Paul yesterday.

Later my father told me how he was talking to to of his employees about Ron Paul (we have kiosk in the mall) and they said someone else just came up telling them about Ron Paul, that has impact. It will keep spreading.

And also consider this. Most college students are not at their universities right now. Wait till they get back and then the fire is really going to spread.

--Dustan

[richard1984]

http://www.capitolhillblue.com/cont/node/2838

Man, this is a disgusting article.

Question: Where did the $1.5 million estimate come from?

I sure wish we had the official numbers.

[richard1984]

Also, with this article: http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=45099&fb=1
Do you think that they could possibly be setting us up for a good surprise?

Maybe...?

[Chester Copperpot]

http://www.capitolhillblue.com/cont/node/2838

Man, this is a disgusting article.

Question: Where did the $1.5 million estimate come from?

I sure wish we had the official numbers.

I would be a little skeptical on Doug Thompson's information. This is the guy who originally said that George Bush said "The Consitution is just a God-damned piece of paper".. When he was called on it he couldnt back it up.

I forget where I saw it or what context it was in.. But I am pretty sure I remember somebody from the Paul campaign who talked about Doug Thompson in a negative light.. They may have used the term propagandist.. I forget but It definitely was NOT flattering.

Perhaps he's being an asshole right back?

[LibertyCzar]

I used the article as a guideline for my calculations, and if the projections in these calculations are somewhat accurate, even though disappointing, they still top both of Nader's previous two runs, not including Federal Contributions.

I was shocked to see that more than 60% of Al Gore's funds in the 2000 election were from Federal Funds. :eek:

[JaylieWoW]

Okay, maybe this is off topic a bit and I fully realize that campaigns require money, but has anyone ever suggested to the democrats that they take all the money they earn for a campaigns and use THAT to take care of all the poor & needy and open their own hospitals?

I know its out there a bit, but I always get so aggravated to hear how I shouldn't mind being taxed out the teeth while they have all this money rolling in.

[WannaBfree]

Good work LibertyCzar!

I think we can also help raise more $ by continuing to introduce people to "this unique candidate that MSM doesn't want you to know about".

I use DVDs in the hope that they will get circulated, specifically Freedom To Fascism to get them out of their apathy, and the new Ron Paul 2008 DVD. (hey if someone makes a new one, please include the Austin TX outdoor public press conference). Filmmaker Russo has waived copyrights for non-profit use so I'm burning copies all the time. I get really thrilled when someone I introduced RP to tells me they made a donation!

I'm gonna go around to "head shops" next to pass out brochures.

[Elwar]

Heh...found this old thread...

Projected 4th quarter total: $6 million? :P

[manny]

Good find - there is real cause for optimism!

[Matt Collins]

Woo hooo!