Producing a "Failure Cascade"

[gerryb]

Let's utilize the Tea Party to maximum advantage to create "Failure Cascades" in the other campaigns. This is a new term I learned from the below articles. It is when an organization is demoralized due to an internal or external event, looses critical mass, and implodes upon itself.

We almost saw it happen to the blimp, but this movement was able to overcome any mis-communications and differences.

The other organizations won't be so lucky.

http://science.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/12/14/2148224

http://www.escapistmagazine.com/articles/view/issues/issue_124/2645-Riding-the-Failure-Cascade

[justinc.1089]

Yes lets sadden them into defeat lol!!!!

Us= :D:D:D

Them= :(:(:(

[NewEnd]

I predict two "major" candidates will be gone after N.H.
McCain and Thompson, and both of them will hardly get another $100,000 for the rest of the year, after their supporters see how Powerful the Paul campaign is.

even better, many contributors may be facing maxxing out a second or third time to a candidate, and having a hard time coning to terms with letting another $2300 go to another potential loser.

When reports are out that Paul has beat them all in fundraising, except Romney, due to his loans to himself, most GOP fundraising efforts will stall.

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

I predict two "major" candidates will be gone after N.H.
McCain and Thompson, and both of them will hardly get another $100,000 for the rest of the year, after their supporters see how Powerful the Paul campaign is.

even better, many contributors may be facing maxxing out a second or third time to a candidate, and having a hard time coning to terms with letting another $2300 go to another potential loser.

When reports are out that Paul has beat them all in fundraising, except Romney, due to his loans to himself, most GOP fundraising efforts will stall.

Nah, they'll probably hold out til SC, then drop out.

[justinc.1089]

McCain won't hold out to SC. He will do horrible here, and he knows it, so after he loses Iowa and NH he will probably drop out. Thompson will stay in though.

[NewEnd]

Nah, they'll probably hold out til SC, then drop out.

I dont think either of them are going to have the cash to make it that far, and losing to Paul will show their weakness, and they will fold.

[anotherone]

People do this in pro cycling when attacking on a climb. The other guy reaches the conclusion that you're untouchable and gives up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHJErrp4eOw

This is Lance breaking Jan Ulrich in a "failure cascade" moment. It's a beautiful view of this psychology in action and one of my favorite youtube videos.

[rory096]

I predict two "major" candidates will be gone after N.H.
McCain and Thompson, and both of them will hardly get another $100,000 for the rest of the year, after their supporters see how Powerful the Paul campaign is.

even better, many contributors may be facing maxxing out a second or third time to a candidate, and having a hard time coning to terms with letting another $2300 go to another potential loser.

When reports are out that Paul has beat them all in fundraising, except Romney, due to his loans to himself, most GOP fundraising efforts will stall.
Didn't Thompson say he'll drop out if he doesn't win Iowa?

[SeanEdwards]

I dont think either of them are going to have the cash to make it that far, and losing to Paul will show their weakness, and they will fold.

Thompson is from SC and has staked his whole campaign on that primary, so he'll hang in till then. But after he loses there he'll be gone.

[Cleaner44]

McCain is banking on NH. He will be crushed if he doesn't do well there. He is already broke.

[Man from La Mancha]

I dont think either of them are going to have the cash to make it that far, and losing to Paul will show their weakness, and they will fold.True, Ron's funds will be endless as more people come aboard. All the rest of the candidates have their corporate sponsors that have forced their employees to give thru office politics and they won't be giving any more. HA HA.

.

[NewEnd]

Thompson is from SC and has staked his whole campaign on that primary, so he'll hang in till then. But after he loses there he'll be gone.

Losing to Ron Paul in every state until that point will be too embarassing. He will nto raise another dime after NH.

[stewie3128]

By the time Florida rolls around, this will be the field (in alphabetical order):

Giuliani
Huckabee
McCain (probably)
Paul
Romney
(Hunter, Tancredo and Thompson will definitely be gone)

Clinton
Edwards
Kucinich (staying in only on principle)
Richardson (maybe)
Obama
(Biden, Dodd and Gravel will be gone)

The Dems are going to settle on a candidate more quickly than the Republicans this time, which'll be a real change from recent elections.

[OferNave]

Remember... we want as many people staying in for as long as possible. They dilute the neocon vote.

[davidhperry]

I predict two "major" candidates will be gone after N.H.
McCain and Thompson, and both of them will hardly get another $100,000 for the rest of the year, after their supporters see how Powerful the Paul campaign is.

even better, many contributors may be facing maxxing out a second or third time to a candidate, and having a hard time coning to terms with letting another $2300 go to another potential loser.

When reports are out that Paul has beat them all in fundraising, except Romney, due to his loans to himself, most GOP fundraising efforts will stall.

I agree completely. McCain and Thompson are going down hard. I think Fred will back out before McCain will.

[Birdlady]

People do this in pro cycling when attacking on a climb. The other guy reaches the conclusion that you're untouchable and gives up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHJErrp4eOw

This is Lance breaking Jan Ulrich in a "failure cascade" moment. It's a beautiful view of this psychology in action and one of my favorite youtube videos.

I am not a big fan of Lance's but that was incredible.

[Hook]

I wonder when Hunter and Tancredo are dropping out. They must be running on fumes already.

[Silverback]

I agree completely. McCain and Thompson are going down hard. I think Fred will back out before McCain will.

It's funny those two are the ones that are so weak.

I've expected then to team up all year, and I'm convinced if either of them were to win the nomination they'd pick the other for VP.

I'm still looking for something like that to happen actually, probably McCain will endorse Thompson when he drops out after NH.

Thompson will be tough to beat in SC if it plays out that way, but it can be done.

[Second_Tier_My_Ass]

for every dollar we donate, that's one more dollar that other campaigns have to somehow come up with in order to pay their "supporters" to do work that we do for free. so actually they have to raise at least twice as much to get as much out of it as we get. this has a huge demoralizing effect on what little grassroots support they have. why would any ordinary person donate money to romney or giuliani when we're way ahead of them in actual funds?

[francisco]

I predict two "major" candidates will be gone after N.H.
McCain and Thompson...

I agree with you about McCain, but not Thompson.

I think Thompson will have enough staying power to stay in, in a seriously weakened condition, through SC which is his stronghold state. SC then becomes do-or-die for him, and if he doesn't win there outright he is history.

McCain is in serious money trouble and is running on fumes, but has probably has enough well-heeled supporters to float loans. He isn't actually trying at all in Iowa and has made sure everybody knows that. So he has only to achieve low expectations there.

However, yesterday McCain got the Des Moines Register's endorsement for Republicans (incredibly, after in the Iowa debate he openly came out against farm subsidies). It is possible that the endorsement might actually hurt him, by raising expectations. NH is his do-or die state and needs third or better there to stay in the race, in my opinion.

[NewEnd]

By the time Florida rolls around, this will be the field (in alphabetical order):

Giuliani
Huckabee
McCain (probably)
Paul
Romney
(Hunter, Tancredo and Thompson will definitely be gone)

Clinton
Edwards
Kucinich (staying in only on principle)
Richardson (maybe)
Obama
(Biden, Dodd and Gravel will be gone)

The Dems are going to settle on a candidate more quickly than the Republicans this time, which'll be a real change from recent elections.



No, McCain is already toast. He's done... hes hoping for a replay miracle in NH, which he will not get, cuz Paul is going to win there.

[Taco John]

I predict two "major" candidates will be gone after N.H.


I worry about this scenario. If Reagan's enemies had consolidated their bases during the primaries in 1980, he might not have had enough to overcome it. I personally believe that Fred Thompson is already seeing a lot of pressure to drop out. I see his supporters splitting between Huckabee and Giuliani... Hmmm... and maybe McCain? I don't know. I have to believe that if McCain doesn't win New Hampshire, it's over for him.

[Jobarra]

People do this in pro cycling when attacking on a climb. The other guy reaches the conclusion that you're untouchable and gives up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHJErrp4eOw

This is Lance breaking Jan Ulrich in a "failure cascade" moment. It's a beautiful view of this psychology in action and one of my favorite youtube videos.
LOL. The best part is the look and then the rapid acceleration away from the pack. Just says "I've been toying with you the whole time"

[NewEnd]

I worry about this scenario. If Reagan's enemies had consolidated their bases during the primaries in 1980, he might not have had enough to overcome it. I personally believe that Fred Thompson is already seeing a lot of pressure to drop out. I see his supporters splitting between Huckabee and Giuliani... Hmmm... and maybe McCain? I don't know. I have to believe that if McCain doesn't win New Hampshire, it's over for him.

Its true. We can "hope" they all stay in, but as the Paul beast shadow begins to bear down on them, they are going to try and rally behind a champion.

They can make the right move, and choose Romney. (I think Romney is the biggest neocon threat)
Or they can make the wrong move, choose Huckabee, (hes too dumb to win, he says dumb stuff all the time, and is obviously a crook and liar) and assure a debilitating and crushing demise of the GOP.
Giuliani has no chance, is way too far left to win a primary, and would be utterly abandoned by the Christian right.

In conclusion, we really want them to rally behind Giulliani, even my mom sneers at his name, and she is fundamentalist right wing christain

[NewEnd]

LOL. The best part is the look and then the rapid acceleration away from the pack. Just says "I've been toying with you the whole time"


Hmm, wasn't armstrong pretty handily accused of doping, or rushing? He has failed a few tests, IIRC.

[jeffrey7]

Lance has never failed a drug test, no matter how much the europeans wanted him to.

[anotherone]

Hmm, wasn't armstrong pretty handily accused of doping, or rushing? He has failed a few tests, IIRC.

He never failed a test, but all of his serious contenders were accused or failed the year after he retired. Makes one fairly suspicious...

[Yaron Nahari]

Interesting idea

[gerryb]

Its true. We can "hope" they all stay in, but as the Paul beast shadow begins to bear down on them, they are going to try and rally behind a champion.


You know, last week I was in the camp that more candidates are good for Ron Paul. But I'm starting to believe right now is the time to weed them out. What will the choices be? If someone is presented with 2 choices, Ron Paul or the other guy.. And they previously supported someone other than "the other guy".. They will likely give Ron a much more serious look.

Any way you cut it, we win!

[manny]

I predict two "major" candidates will be gone after N.H.
McCain and Thompson, and both of them will hardly get another $100,000 for the rest of the year, after their supporters see how Powerful the Paul campaign is.

even better, many contributors may be facing maxxing out a second or third time to a candidate, and having a hard time coning to terms with letting another $2300 go to another potential loser.

When reports are out that Paul has beat them all in fundraising, except Romney, due to his loans to himself, most GOP fundraising efforts will stall.


This is a lie the media may well spin, and we've got to get on their case when they try. Loans to himself do not count! If that is the only way Romney raises more than Paul then Paul is #1 in donations.

Remember Nov 5th Romney tried to spread lies that he had raised more in a day than Paul by getting his rich buddies to promise him money. Well, it didn't stick. If the msm try to say Romney out-raised Paul by self-loads when the figures are released then every single RP must call or email relentlessly until they back down.

They do it for a reason. The media and many pollsters do us down. The money is one of the ways we can show RP is a "viable candidate" ... so we must not let Romney cheat on this.

[kaleidoscope eyes]

McCain got an endorsement from the Demoines Register... think that will have any effect?
saw it on CNN this morning

[RonFan1776]

People do this in pro cycling when attacking on a climb. The other guy reaches the conclusion that you're untouchable and gives up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHJErrp4eOw

This is Lance breaking Jan Ulrich in a "failure cascade" moment. It's a beautiful view of this psychology in action and one of my favorite youtube videos.

We must get you a new favorite youtube video list. Try these for a start:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPUpN8JZe2M

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3lycIaNMfc&feature=related

:D

[LibertyEagle]

I predict two "major" candidates will be gone after N.H.
McCain and Thompson, and both of them will hardly get another $100,000 for the rest of the year, after their supporters see how Powerful the Paul campaign is.

even better, many contributors may be facing maxxing out a second or third time to a candidate, and having a hard time coning to terms with letting another $2300 go to another potential loser.

When reports are out that Paul has beat them all in fundraising, except Romney, due to his loans to himself, most GOP fundraising efforts will stall.

Did you forget Hunter? He's history.

[RonFan1776]

McCain got an endorsement from the Demoines Register... think that will have any effect?
saw it on CNN this morning

Yes, hopefully when we're done it will end the Register and in its place will be the Des Moines Freedom Post. :cool:

[LibertyEagle]

McCain got an endorsement from the Demoines Register... think that will have any effect?
saw it on CNN this morning

Hopefully, it will give him a little bump. Spread those neocon votes around just a bit more. :)

[NewEnd]

Did you forget Hunter? He's history.

I did say major. Hunter and Tancredo will drop out at any time, they should have already.

[kaleidoscope eyes]

Yes, hopefully when we're done it will end the Register and in its place will be the Des Moines Freedom Post. :cool:
lol
THAT would be pretty cool. ;)

[weatherbill]

praying for an ice storm to hit iowa 8}

[johngr]

I wouldn't mind having the major US newspapers from two alternate futures -- one where Dr. Paul wins and another where Mccain wins NH, just to see how different the press spins it.

[johngr]

praying for an ice storm to hit iowa 8}

Forget that. It will be clear and unseasonably warm because the evil ones can control the weather (look at the storm in Boston today for an example).