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View Full Version : Trend analysts, what do you think we're gonna pull for the day?




AggieforPaul
12-16-2007, 12:18 AM
Based on Nov 5 comparisons. I realize this is an inexact science, because a lot of donations thus far have been made by forumers. Im hoping we get at least 6 mil. That would shatter Nov 5th, and break kerry's record, and give us an outside shot at finishing the quarter with 20 mil.

Jmaths117
12-16-2007, 12:22 AM
Based on Nov 5 comparisons. I realize this is an inexact science, because a lot of donations thus far have been made by forumers. Im hoping we get at least 6 mil. That would shatter Nov 5th, and break kerry's record, and give us an outside shot at finishing the quarter with 20 mil.

10 Million

Jmaths117
12-16-2007, 12:23 AM
http://www.ronpaulgraphs.com/dec_16_vs_nov_5_total.png

Jon S
12-16-2007, 12:24 AM
i am an expert trend analyst and my degree tells me we will make 8.7 billion

TheEvilDetector
12-16-2007, 12:25 AM
8 mil I think. Final Total will be around 19.5 mil

brandon
12-16-2007, 12:25 AM
7.5 mil

conner_condor
12-16-2007, 12:25 AM
i am an expert trend analyst and my degree tells me we will make 8.7 billion


OK you hucker.

curiousobserver
12-16-2007, 12:28 AM
7 mil?

sharedvoice
12-16-2007, 12:30 AM
http://smbdata.net/ron-counter.jpg

rgampell
12-16-2007, 12:31 AM
I remember noticing that Nov. 30 tracked Nov. 11th almost exactly from the first few minutes. In other words, you could tell that it was going to be a $500K-$600K day almost immediately, simply by comparing the two graphs.

If we keep tracking Nov. 5, we're looking at about 2.5x, or $10M, if I'm reading the charts correctly. (Recall that the extra $300K was from offline donations, whereas the Nov. 5 online total was almost exactly $4M.)

thehighwaymanq
12-16-2007, 12:31 AM
We will smash all positive records today. Guarenteed.

Jwaksman
12-16-2007, 12:41 AM
There is no "trend" to analyze. This is only the 2nd bigtime moneybomb, and one moneybomb a trend does not make. We can't know that this time the money will flow in at the same rate.


For example, at this point we have well more than double what we had raised last time after this many minutes. But I would also say that people were more obsessed with early donations this time. People have been holding back for almost a month - a lot of people got really antsy and wanted to donate as early as they could. On November 5th, most people didn't think it would be that big - so we got a lot of late donations as people got excited about what was raised earlier in the day. Expect donations to slow down as the day goes on.


I do think that something insane like $8 Million is a real likelihood. I don't want to say anything higher because I don't want to set an unrealistic goal. But the longer we're going at more than double the pace....

krott5333
12-16-2007, 12:44 AM
Okay, i have been carefully thinking about this, including a few factors that would affect the outcome.

First off.. the support Ron Paul has garnered since Nov 5th is quite dramatic..

however, surely the current rate of donations will slow in the next few hours when people fall asleep....

also, there is likely to be a bump if the media reports on the progress of the money bomb throughout the day tomorrow, which I expect. However, its a sunday.. who the hell watches the news on a Sunday?

so, all in all, I'm guessing 7.9

Richandler
12-16-2007, 12:45 AM
We'll hit 10 million. No reason not too.

Paulite5112007
12-16-2007, 12:47 AM
Im sticking to my hopeful 8.75 million. I actually thought a little over 6 mil was a reasonable expectation

UtahApocalypse
12-16-2007, 12:53 AM
Very hard to judge. We have many factors to consider:

Its Sunday.
Last Time was broken into Time Zones, This Time everyone started at the same time.
People have been waiting longer to donate.
We have so many new supporters.

All of these among other things can effect how the donations flow. I think we will beat Nov. 5th, not sure by how much. I think the peaks and flows will be different then.

JDeVriese
12-16-2007, 01:02 AM
Based on a percentage of the 5th at 02:00 and applying that to what we have today, it'll be around 9.6mil...but I think that we'll have a major spike around midday when this starts to hit the news. Ten million plus shouldn't be a problem.

stljim
12-16-2007, 01:17 AM
I think that if we get anywhere close to 10 mil we'll push it over the edge.

Pete
12-16-2007, 01:32 AM
I'd say we're tracking for about $1.5 million by 8 AM, in which case all hell's going to break loose.

$10 million ought to be easy. I'm personally hoping for $20 million.

lurker
12-16-2007, 01:33 AM
If we are just under $10 million in the final couple of hours today, should we have a final organized push to bring it over 10 million?

conner_condor
12-16-2007, 01:34 AM
If we are just under $10 million in the final couple of hours today, should we have a final organized push to bring it over 10 million?


Why would we want to do that?:rolleyes:

Dave Pedersen
12-16-2007, 01:34 AM
Looks like we'll have to push to break 10 million. I think we'll make it !

voytechs
12-16-2007, 01:36 AM
Over $25Mil today according to the raw data. The rates of donations are just incredible and so so much more then I ever expected. We're on track to go way over 100,000 donating today. I'm thinking 120,000. $20mil for sure. Probably $25, may be as high as $30M.

Just wait until 8am. We're still at a higher slope than we were at 8am on Nov. 5th.

archemeedees
12-16-2007, 01:38 AM
I can't wait... this is something beyond exciting. It's awe-inspiring and almost reverent.

lurker
12-16-2007, 03:25 AM
Just to add to this topic, read this (old) post at the official website: http://ronpaul2008.typepad.com/ron_paul_2008/2007/11/29/index.html


Thanks to your continued support, we are closing in on three important fundraising milestones for the fourth quarter:

-- During the third quarter, Fred Thompson raised $9,750,821 to be used during the primary election cycle.

-- Not counting money that he loaned to his own campaign, Mitt Romney raised $9,896,719.

-- Rudy Giuliani finished with $10,258,019.

Now imagine outraising any of the candidate's entire 3rd quarter in just 24 hours. Think of the news that would make! It is possible, let's make it happen!

aspiringconstitutionalist
12-16-2007, 03:27 AM
We're pulling in money at a 233% greater rate than we were on November 5th, so we should end up with about $10,033,333 for the day, giving us a grand Q4 total of a little over $21 million. Regardless, we're going to be near, at, or over the $20 million mark by the end of the day.

majinkoola
12-16-2007, 03:33 AM
I think when nearing the end of the day we'll be on pace for a little less than 10 million, but that fact will spur the fundraising to a little more than 10 million.

acroso
12-16-2007, 03:34 AM
There is no doubt that it will be at least 6 million as a bottom number. How do you know that? Look at the slope of the line. It's steeper at all parts than the November 5th line and roughly about 2x as steep even in the middle of the night.

As long as the slope stays twice as steep, which there is no reason to think it won't, we'll have 8 million and beyond.

CelestialRender
12-16-2007, 03:34 AM
I was saying $7.5 million, for reasons that I'm sure most of you have read (money bomb coefficient, etc).

In response to a really good start though, I'm revising up to $8.5 million. Which would be awesome. That would be double 11/5, and it would put us at $20 million for Q4.

syborius
12-16-2007, 03:40 AM
We will hit about 8.x No idea how much we will go over, but I think we will do it, or come damn close. 10 would be sweet, to more than double the input last time, but to make the media go bonkers again 8.x would suffice :D

Final prediction 8.1


Cheers

GO RP!!!!!!!!!

acroso
12-16-2007, 03:41 AM
How do I find out if my state has delegates? Tennessee

wisconsinite
12-16-2007, 03:44 AM
8 million +

Shaun
12-16-2007, 03:44 AM
Impossible to predict.
We don't know the geometric progression that's possible if only a couple of the MSM outlets pick this up. The more we can get tonight, the more possibility there is of that coverage...

dallasmsl
12-16-2007, 03:49 AM
My "guess" is 15 million. Yes, it is extreme but remember, you must first count everyone who participated in the first money bomb, like me, who will definitely participate this time. Then, you have to add in the many millions more NEW Ron Paul supporters. But there is still a third quotient - Enthusiasm of all of the above! Remember, people LIKE a winner and when they see victory, they will be encouraged to want to say, "Yeah, i gave $100 but then I realized how important this is and gave another $200!"

There is only one thing I want to see......George Stepanopolis EAT HIS WORDS! I can't wait to see his show Sunday morning! I'm going to laugh my rear-end off!

Dave Sanchez

Zeteo
12-16-2007, 03:50 AM
This is based on squinting at the available graphs, so don't expect 100% precision ;)

Nov. 5th vs. December 16th:

1 a.m.: 150k vs. 375k
2 a.m.: 250k vs. 630k
3 a.m.: 300k vs. 750k
4 a.m: 350k vs. 900k

This looks like a very steady 2.5 ratio to me. So 10 million would be the answer!

damijin
12-16-2007, 03:50 AM
I'm gonna go with 6.5, and I damn well expect you all to prove me wrong!

Shaun
12-16-2007, 03:56 AM
My comments on November 7th. I stand by them. I predict 25 million Q4. Oh, the other thing I predict?
We are going give Frank, Sean and that clown George Istepedinaplieofxxxoplus a good doing!
Let's get at em.

$10M is a certain event if there is a 30 day build. Also, we have done some analysis here in Hollywood today and we estimate RP will raise $24-27 million dollars by end of Q4. Likely more than Hillary. The massive knock on effect after you boys raise the $10,000,000 on Dec 16th will bring in another $5,000,000 in the last two weeks and you will already be at a minimum of $10,000,000 at the end of November. Ron is not just in the top tier he will also be the number one money man. In US politics it's all the money honey. Go get it....

Zeteo
12-16-2007, 04:02 AM
Nov. 5th vs. December 16th:

1 a.m.: 150k vs. 375k
2 a.m.: 250k vs. 630k
3 a.m.: 300k vs. 750k
4 a.m: 350k vs. 900k
5 a.m: 400k vs. 1 mil

The 2.5 ratio holds steady. 10 million!

austin356
12-16-2007, 04:02 AM
$8,448,000

Nick From Iowa
12-16-2007, 04:07 AM
$7,855,829.27



One issue that I haven't seen anyone mention specifically is that there are some supporters who have already donated their maximum allowance to Dr. Paul.

There will be many brand NEW donors donating to the campaign today, and that is a good thing!

I know this because I'm one of them!

derdy
12-16-2007, 04:08 AM
Based on Nov 5 comparisons. I realize this is an inexact science, because a lot of donations thus far have been made by forumers. Im hoping we get at least 6 mil. That would shatter Nov 5th, and break kerry's record, and give us an outside shot at finishing the quarter with 20 mil.

I say we're going to raise at least $10 million. I said $5 million last time and we almost made it.

I'm confident in my prediction. I haven't donated yet and won't be able to max out. However, I may max out even though it will hurt the pocketbook.

dallasmsl
12-16-2007, 04:09 AM
This is based on squinting at the available graphs, so don't expect 100% precision ;)

Nov. 5th vs. December 16th:

1 a.m.: 150k vs. 375k
2 a.m.: 250k vs. 630k
3 a.m.: 300k vs. 750k
4 a.m: 350k vs. 900k

This looks like a very steady 2.5 ratio to me. So 10 million would be the answer!

But you're missing something here.....it's 4 a.m. and 95 percent of America is still asleep!

TwiLeXia
12-16-2007, 04:09 AM
im gonna guess exactly 11,111,111 dollars.

Ivanelterrible
12-16-2007, 04:14 AM
Low expectations of 6 millions, smart money on 8, and if MM picks it up and runs with it through the day? Impossible to compute.

dallasmsl
12-16-2007, 04:18 AM
Which is all the more reason to donate NOW!

Rhys
12-16-2007, 04:21 AM
if you use finger science, you will see that your finger stops at about 7.5 mil.

dallasmsl
12-16-2007, 04:25 AM
I know this sounds crazy but after I donate, I go to Home Page and wait for my name to show up....then I do a print screen and send it to my friends! Weird, eh?

acroso
12-16-2007, 04:26 AM
I didn't wait for my name to show up but how long does it normally take?

Ninja Homer
12-16-2007, 04:26 AM
So far, it's 2.5 times as much as Nov 5th, so $10 million's a good spot to look at.

I think it will be at least that, and several things could bump it up quite a bit.
- CBS Evening News will be at campaign HQ tonight.
- There are a lot of new supporters that won't be donating at midnight. I think it's mostly the very passionate supporters that have been around for a while that donate early.
- You got people like Dr. Mercola sending to his 1.3 million newsletter subscribers to donate today. Even if just a small portion of them donate today, it could double the donations easily (10% of them donating $100 each would be $13 million).
- Other MSM will probably pick up the story early today, where it was mostly ignored until the end of the day or the day after for Nov 5th.

LibertyEagle
12-16-2007, 04:28 AM
My comments on November 7th. I stand by them. I predict 25 million Q4. Oh, the other thing I predict?
We are going give Frank, Sean and that clown George Istepedinaplieofxxxoplus a good doing!
Let's get at em.

$10M is a certain event if there is a 30 day build. Also, we have done some analysis here in Hollywood today and we estimate RP will raise $24-27 million dollars by end of Q4. Likely more than Hillary. The massive knock on effect after you boys raise the $10,000,000 on Dec 16th will bring in another $5,000,000 in the last two weeks and you will already be at a minimum of $10,000,000 at the end of November. Ron is not just in the top tier he will also be the number one money man. In US politics it's all the money honey. Go get it....

I like the way you think, Shaun. :D But, I'm hoping that we reach that $24 million TODAY!

Karsten
12-16-2007, 04:28 AM
im gonna guess exactly 11,111,111 dollars.

That would be sweet!

Menthol Patch
12-16-2007, 04:29 AM
If we pull together and all donate NOW to build up momentum we can raise AT LEAST ten million dollars!

Zeteo
12-16-2007, 04:32 AM
But you're missing something here.....it's 4 a.m. and 95 percent of America is still asleep!

Yes, and the same happened on Nov. 5th at 4 a.m. The comparison is made for the same hour.

DirtMcGirt
12-16-2007, 04:32 AM
7.2

francisco
12-16-2007, 04:40 AM
This is based on squinting at the available graphs, so don't expect 100% precision ;)

Nov. 5th vs. December 16th:

1 a.m.: 150k vs. 375k
2 a.m.: 250k vs. 630k
3 a.m.: 300k vs. 750k
4 a.m: 350k vs. 900k

This looks like a very steady 2.5 ratio to me. So 10 million would be the answer!

There's something about $10 million as a nice, round number.

2 key variables from Nov.5th:

--Sunday vs. Weekday

--Much more advance media play for today. Effect from any notice on Sunday talk shows simply unknowable at this point.

I'm worried about the servers--apparently there was some bogging down early on tonight.

andrewss
12-16-2007, 04:54 AM
My bet is 6.5 to 7 million .... call me pessimistic, but thats my bet

Hopefully its more though! :D

xexkxex
12-16-2007, 04:55 AM
Do I need to say it??? :D

http://zerotosixty.files.wordpress.com/2007/09/medium_dr_evil_1.jpg

Man from La Mancha
12-16-2007, 04:57 AM
http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/8411/bluesbrothers2bn1.jpg
Lets do do it!!

Menthol Patch
12-16-2007, 04:57 AM
There is NO REASON we cannot raise 10 million dollars today!

However, we all need to donate NOW and not wait until later. By donating now we will encourage other people to donate MORE later on in the day!

Richandler
12-16-2007, 05:01 AM
We are on pace to do around $8 million if the day continues like Nov. 5th. However, it will have to pick up significantly. 1/4th the day has passed and there is only a million. However, in perspective, at this time last time we were at half of where we are now.

Rhys
12-16-2007, 05:03 AM
i probably don't have to say this, but don't forget to go through your phone book today.