CDC New Mortality Rate .3%, There is No Reason for Any Distancing to Go on a Single Day Longer

[James_Madison_Lives]

The irony is that now, social distancing may accomplishing exactly the opposite of saving lives. By delaying the wall of herd immunity which leaves the virus nowhere to go and exterminates it, the RNA virus has more time to mutate into more deadly forms which will result in a deadlier second wave.

For comparison

Regular flu mortality rate: .1%

1968 Hong Kong flu mortality rate: .5%

1968 season US Hong Kong flu deaths:100,000

1957 H2N2 flu mortality rate .7%

1957 season US H2N2 deaths 116,000

2017 - 2018 US flu deaths 80,000

Recall that in 1957 and 1968 the US had only 1/2 to 2/3 of the present population.

The killer is even if you are old and out of shape you still have a close to 99% chance of survival. Call the priest!


https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-implies-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

That rate is much lower than the numbers used in the horrifying projections that shaped the government response to the epidemic.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans with COVID-19 symptoms is 0.4 percent. The CDC also estimates that 35 percent of people infected by the COVID-19 virus never develop symptoms. Those numbers imply that the virus kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected by it—far lower than the infection fatality rates (IFRs) assumed by the alarming projections that drove the initial government response to the epidemic, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders.

The CDC offers the new estimates in its "COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios," which are meant to guide hospital administrators in "assessing resource needs" and help policy makers "evaluate the potential effects of different community mitigation strategies." It says "the planning scenarios are being used by mathematical modelers throughout the Federal government."

The CDC's five scenarios include one based on "a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States." That scenario assumes a "basic reproduction number" of 2.5, meaning the average carrier can be expected to infect that number of people in a population with no immunity. It assumes an overall symptomatic case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.4 percent, roughly four times the estimated CFR for the seasonal flu. The CDC estimates that the CFR for COVID-19 falls to 0.05 percent among people younger than 50 and rises to 1.3 percent among people 65 and older. For people in the middle (ages 50–64), the estimated CFR is 0.2 percent.

[AngryCanadian]

Less traveling seems to have worked agaisnt SARS. I feel actually quite good without so many planes flying every 40,70 Minutes overhead.

[dannno]

When the experts were predicting a 1%-4% fatality rate back in March, I did my own calculations and predicted it would be closer to 0.1% - 0.3%

It is in the 80 page thread on the topic if anybody doubts that it happened.

I didn't hear anybody else make a prediction that precise, I just looked at the data that was available myself and actually did math.

Me: 1

Experts: 0

[Voluntarist]

Per registered decision (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?541228-Bryan-does-this-site-reject-traditional-morality-and-Christian-teachings&p=6888638&viewfull=1#post6888638), member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/member.php?33245-TheTexan) (respect his authoritah (https://youtu.be/PaKjRMMU9HI)) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?541228-Bryan-does-this-site-reject-traditional-morality-and-Christian-teachings&p=6888539&viewfull=1#post6888539)

May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.

[phill4paul]

So in a country of 330 million people, we could expect as many as 990,000 fatalities if everyone became infected. However, I'm thinking that even the 0.3% number is high, given that about a quarter to a third of the fatalities originated in nursing homes and long term care facilities - where there is a concentration of people who have comorbidities (the attributes that make COVID-19 so deadly to some individuals). You would have thought that those would have been the people you'd be isolating. Instead, they lined them up like they were in a firing squad.

I'd estimate a third of the fatalities came from this exact situation.

[Dr.3D]

I'd estimate a third of the fatalities came from this exact situation.

They are probably just trying to clear the social security rolls before they go broke.

[KEEF]

I'd estimate a third of the fatalities came from this exact situation.
Did these numbers also take into account deaths of people where COVID was marked on the death certificate as being a second cause and not the primary cause? I heard that if that were to be addressed that would shrink the numbers down by a good 30%.

[Voluntarist]

Per registered decision (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?541228-Bryan-does-this-site-reject-traditional-morality-and-Christian-teachings&p=6888638&viewfull=1#post6888638), member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/member.php?33245-TheTexan) (respect his authoritah (https://youtu.be/PaKjRMMU9HI)) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?541228-Bryan-does-this-site-reject-traditional-morality-and-Christian-teachings&p=6888539&viewfull=1#post6888539)

May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.

[DamianTV]

CDC should go TWEET that, and see how it turns out...

[69360]

It's not news to me. I've known since the beginning this was just a normal heavy flu season.

But we all "came together" "sheltered in place" and "won!"

[Anti Globalist]

Social distancing will continue as long as they keep changing the goalposts.

[James_Madison_Lives]

Did these numbers also take into account deaths of people where COVID was marked on the death certificate as being a second cause and not the primary cause? I heard that if that were to be addressed that would shrink the numbers down by a good 30%.

If not by half.

[James_Madison_Lives]

Social distancing will continue as long as they keep changing the goalposts.

Maybe with riots we will each herd immunity that much sooner.

[James_Madison_Lives]

It's not news to me. I've known since the beginning this was just a normal heavy flu season.

But we all "came together" "sheltered in place" and "won!"

What's your estimate of how much COVID deaths are being pumped up? I hear 25% I guess more like 50%.

[Origanalist]

It's not news to me. I've known since the beginning this was just a normal heavy flu season.

But we all "came together" "sheltered in place" and "won!"

So much winning.

[donnay]

The CDC is just as bad as the WHO. They lost a lot of people's trust by their inability to do things better--or at least what they were set up for. They are worthless and have too many conflict of interests since they hold patents for vaccines and stand to make money by pushing them.

[James_Madison_Lives]

The CDC is just as bad as the WHO. They lost a lot of people's trust by their inability to do things better--or at least what they were set up for. They are worthless and have too many conflict of interests since they hold patents for vaccines and stand to make money by pushing them.

How could they listen to this one quack Neil Ferguson and ever have credibility again.

[Champ]

It may be coming back. You can already see more news stories are starting to get back to the covid-1984 news as the riots begin to calm down and the pivot begins. The panic and concern by officials is not real, nor will it ever be, but they need us in a constant state of chaos, fear, and demoralization, so they will get back to their bread and butter of making people fear for their lives with potential viral infections coming back for round 2. And they will blame the white supremacists, Trump, and bad cops, for creating the riots in the first place, which allowed many people to congregate together, which in their faux estimations, further spread the virus far and wide.

Feels like it's going to be back in the news 24/7 in a week or two, especially if the riots end. We'll see what happens.

[donnay]

How could they listen to this one quack Neil Ferguson and ever have credibility again.

And the other quack Fauci.

[donnay]

It may be coming back. You can already see more news stories are starting to get back to the covid-1984 news as the riots begin to calm down and the pivot begins. The panic and concern by officials is not real, nor will it ever be, but they need us in a constant state of chaos, fear, and demoralization, so they will get back to their bread and butter of making people fear for their lives with potential viral infections coming back for round 2. And they will blame the white supremacists, Trump, and bad cops, for creating the riots in the first place, which allowed many people to congregate together, which in their faux estimations, further spread the virus far and wide.

Feels like it's going to be back in the news 24/7 in a week or two, especially if the riots end. We'll see what happens.

Yes, because President Trump announced he is holding a rally in Oklahoma in two weeks. No mask and no social distancing required.

[James_Madison_Lives]

Yes, because President Trump announced he is holding a rally in Oklahoma in two weeks. No mask and no social distancing required.

My sense is the COVID plot failed. No one is buying.

[Champ]

My sense is the COVID plot failed. No one is buying.

It largely did in the end. But they need a stop gap until the next event occurs and they also need to keep hanging the carrot on the stick until the vaccine is "ready".

[James_Madison_Lives]

It largely did in the end. But they need a stop gap until the next event occurs and they also need to keep hanging the carrot on the stick until the vaccine is "ready".

Anyone thinking of taking that vaccine needs to watch Michelle Malkin's post:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4YAGKcgErE

[James_Madison_Lives]

Yes, because President Trump announced he is holding a rally in Oklahoma in two weeks. No mask and no social distancing required.

He is sending a message to the sane. You are not alone. :cool:

[James_Madison_Lives]

It largely did in the end. But they need a stop gap until the next event occurs and they also need to keep hanging the carrot on the stick until the vaccine is "ready".

Forced vaccination is rape.


https://youtu.be/AsQIndzvErs