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View Full Version : Art of the deal: Trump's historic deal to end oil price war and boost oil prices




enhanced_deficit
04-19-2020, 10:09 PM
This Trump brokered deal to boost oil prices could go down as one of the biggest deals of Trump's political career. It could also help boost his 'art of the deal' cred on the street after recent setbacks in making successful deals with North Korea, Iran, Xi on foreign policy fronts and with Dems/Pelosi/Schumer on domestic spending, Wall funding, gun control, DACA, health care fronts.


Trump’s oil deal: The inside story of how the Saudi-Russia price war ended

Javier Blas and Bloomberg
April 14, 2020

After a week-long marathon of calls between world leaders and video conferences featuring dozens of energy ministers, it was the moment the 2020 oil price war finally ended (https://fortune.com/2020/04/13/saudi-arabia-russia-oil-price-war-ends-opec-deal-slash-output-prices/).

From Villahermosa, a city near Mexico’s largest crude terminal, Energy Minister Rocio Nahle raised her voice. “Your Royal Highness, Mexico has already agreed. And now I would like to ask you: ‘Do you agree with these terms?’”
In Riyadh, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman nearly chuckled as he looked at a wall of video feeds showing his counterparts around the world. “I go with the consensus. I agree,” he replied.
At that moment, the OPEC+ alliance sealed the largest ever coordinated production cut, removing about a 10th of global supply. The historic deal had almost been derailed (https://fortune.com/2020/04/10/oil-prices-mexico-saudi-arabia-russia-production-cut-opec/) by a fight between Saudi Arabia and Mexico’s populist government, forcing President Donald Trump to step in and broker a face-saving solution.
Prince Abdulaziz declared himself sleepless and exhausted, but triumphant nonetheless.
“We have demonstrated that OPEC+ is up, running, and alive,” he told Bloomberg News in an interview minutes after he clinched the agreement. “I’m more than happy.”

Deal Maker

The biggest winner appears to be Trump, who refused to deliberately cut American oil production, but was still able to broker the final deal. His phone call with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, followed by a three-way conference call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and King Salman of Saudi Arabia, came up with the proposal that resolved the Latin American nation’s objections to the agreement.
Trump has taken time away from grappling with the world’s largest coronavirus outbreak and waded into oil politics with a surprising goal. He’s gone from welcoming the crude price collapse to worrying about losing the American energy industry. Fearing that job losses in Texas and other oil-rich states could hurt his re-election prospects, he convinced Putin and the Saudi monarch to end hostilities and make a compromise.

“Trump views himself as a deal maker,” said Joe McMonigle, an energy consultant and former U.S. government oil official. So “Trump went to the oil market’s red phone.”

The president sealed the historic deal by offering the Saudis something that exists only on paper. When Mexico refused a big output reduction, putting the whole agreement in danger, Trump assured OPEC+ that the U.S. would cut its own production on its neighbor’s behalf.

https://fortune.com/2020/04/14/trump-oil-deal-inside-story-saudi-arabia-russia-price-war-ended/




il prices spike by a record 25% as Trump talks up huge production cuts and Saudi Arabia calls for OPEC meeting

Thu April 2, 2020

New York (CNN Business)Hopes are building for a truce in thebrutaloil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, setting offa record spike in the oil market Thursday.

President Donald Trump suggested massive production cuts could be on the way and Saudi Arabia called for an "urgent" meeting between OPEC, Russia and other unnamed nations to restore "balance" to the oil market.
Even though no date has been set for such a meeting — and no deal on cutting production has yet been announced — the oil market celebrated wildly.

US oil prices (https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/stock-market-news-today-040220/h_8c7bb4846401215cc8cf29f2d46c0520)soared as much as 35% to $27.39 a barrel after Trump said on Twitter that he hopes and expects Saudi Arabia and Russia will slash output by between 10 million and 15 million barrels per day. Crude closed with a surge of 25% to $25.32 a barrel. That exceeds the previous one-day record that was set exactly two weeks ago.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/business/oil-prices-trump-russia-saudi-arabia/index.html

kpitcher
04-20-2020, 09:52 PM
aw damn, the $-37 a barrel of oil futures went away. I was just figuring out how to store a lot of barrels to be paid to take it.

Can't wait to see what industry the art of the deal helps next.

dannno
04-20-2020, 10:50 PM
aw damn, the $-37 a barrel of oil futures went away. I was just figuring out how to store a lot of barrels to be paid to take it.

Can't wait to see what industry the art of the deal helps next.

Since when is cheap oil a bad deal?

enhanced_deficit
04-21-2020, 10:48 AM
Oil prices spike by a record 25% as Trump talks up huge production cuts and Saudi Arabia calls for OPEC meeting

Thu April 2, 2020

US oil prices (https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/stock-market-news-today-040220/h_8c7bb4846401215cc8cf29f2d46c0520)soared as much as 35% to $27.39 a barrel after Trump said on Twitter that he hopes and expects Saudi Arabia and Russia will slash output by between 10 million and 15 million barrels per day.


aw damn, the $-37 a barrel of oil futures went away. I was just figuring out how to store a lot of barrels to be paid to take it.

Can't wait to see what industry the art of the deal helps next.


Even so, this time time around media should avoid "got played" narratives that unfortuantely some commentators have already started to invoke after this historic oil drop following an initial spike. Still find it hard to believe that Putin and Saudi can pull an headfake to outsmart MAGA and some of the smartest people in our politics he's surrounded himself with.


This was lib media negativity after past deals setbacks:

Adm. James Stavridis: 100% Trump got played by North Korea
msnbc
Dec 23, 2019 - North Korea has warned it could deliver the U.S. an unwelcome Christmas gift -- if there's no progress on nuclear talks. Admiral James Stavridis ...


Trump is getting played by China on trade
washingtonpost
Dec 12, 2019 - But if the president strikes the deal on the terms being reported, he will actually be making a huge concession to Beijing that achieves few U.S. ...


Trump Got ‘Played’ By Benjamin Netanyahu And Israeli Officials, Says Rex Tillerson
huffpost
Sep 19, 2019 - “In dealing with Bibi, it's always useful to carry a healthy amount of skepticism,” the former secretary of state said in a talk at Harvard.

enhanced_deficit
04-21-2020, 11:24 AM
Since when is cheap oil a bad deal?

In theory, it could be bad for US taxpayers if this MAGA bailout plan materialized:

Trump proposes financial aid for oil, gas companies as oil prices plummet (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?545720-Trump-proposes-financial-aid-for-oil-gas-companies-as-oil-prices-plummet&)

kpitcher
04-21-2020, 03:54 PM
There may be a push to shut down offshore US oil so we are no longer energy exporters, having to bring in more from Saudia Arabia and Russia.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/04/21/oil-production-cuts-further-harm-economy-column/5162535002/

Cheap oil is good, although it's not on a free market but a crony capitalist system.

enhanced_deficit
04-21-2020, 09:43 PM
There may be a push to shut down offshore US oil so we are no longer energy exporters, having to bring in more from Saudia Arabia and Russia.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/04/21/oil-production-cuts-further-harm-economy-column/5162535002/

Cheap oil is good, although it's not on a free market but a crony capitalist system.

EM.

Valid point.


Related

About 150-years of oil-price history in one chart illustrates crude’s spectacular plunge below $0 a barrel (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/about-150-years-of-oil-price-history-in-one-chart-illustrates-crudes-spectacular-plunge-below-0-a-barrel-2020-04-22) Published: April 22, 2020

https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2020/04/22/Photos/NS/MW-IE969_db_oil_20200422112802_NS.jpg