Electoral Map Poll: Donald Trump is Toast!

[Warlord]

Read it and weep. Trump is being CRUSHED by a senile old man.

1247607973519790081
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1247607973519790081

[oyarde]

Read it and weep. Trump is being CRUSHED by a senile old man.

1247607973519790081
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1247607973519790081

That is looking pretty optimistic for the dems , not sure they could get Nevada , ohio , florida, Arizona or NC

[Warlord]

That is looking pretty optimistic for the dems , not sure they could get Nevada , ohio , florida, Arizona or NC

It's based on these surveys:

https://politicalpolls.jhkforecasts.com/general_election

If you take Arizona for example, the senate race there polling shows Mark Kelly the gun grabber husband of Giffords up by 6 over the pathetic R so it could happen.

[Warlord]

NV has a Dem goverrnor so why can't Biden win it statewide ? They also sent Reid to the senate for 30 years

In fact both NV senators are Dems

[oyarde]

It's based on these surveys:

https://politicalpolls.jhkforecasts.com/general_election

If you take Arizona for example, the senate race there polling shows Mark Kelly the gun grabber husband of Giffords up by 6 over the pathetic R so it could happen.

Reid controlled Nevada with graft , Biden is not getting that vote.

[Created4]

Read it and weep. Trump is being CRUSHED by a senile old man.


Wow, shades of 2016 all over again. People were saying the same thing about Trump going up against Hillary, all the way up to election day.

Do you honestly believe that what ballots people cast at the polls has anything to do with who wins the election??

[Warlord]

Reid controlled Nevada with graft , Biden is not getting that vote.

Dem Governor, two Dem senators. They do vote statewide for Dems, bit like a western VA but instead of gov't jobs it has Latinos who are loyal voters for free stuff.

[RonZeplin]

Well that's bad news either way it goes. Even if the polls are right we're still screwed. :nauseated:

Trump sux the most:down::down:, but Biden sux a heck of a lot too. :down:

[69360]

Yeah that narrative was pushed 4 years ago as well. It didn't happen. I am not voting for Trump but think he is going to win.

[nikcers]

never say never :blank:

[RonZeplin]

Yeah that narrative was pushed 4 years ago as well. It didn't happen. I am not voting for Trump but think he is going to win.

Yeah, I fear that you're right.

+rep

[nikcers]

Who knows if Biden makes it. Last time I saw him interview he looked like he was in bad shape.

[John-G]

Read it and weep. Trump is being CRUSHED by a senile old man.

1247607973519790081
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1247607973519790081

It's one thing to beat Bernie Sanders, a man so weak that he abandoned his post when BLM protesters rode in. It's something else to beat Trump who has the highest approval rating he has even had and a man who will savage him with all the scandals and deficiency in his record during a debate. Trump wins this comfortably.

Also, its too early to take polls seriously.

[JoshLowry]

Read it and weep. Trump is being CRUSHED by a senile old man.


When did we start giving polls legitimacy worthy of caps locked posts and being wept over?

[Krugminator2]

Donald Trump has a 49.4% to be reelected. Biden has a 41% chance to win.

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/

Markets > Pundits and pollsters.

[oyarde]

Donald Trump has a 49.4% to be reelected. Biden has a 41% chance to win.

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/

Markets > Pundits and pollsters.
I say once the 1200 checks get there trump moves to 49.9

[AngryCanadian]

Really!? 78% chance?
would idiots really vote for some idiot that had called Trump racist for his travel ban on China? while demanding a green new deal during a crisis? how could the state of NY and Cailf while being in a lock down?

Is this the same Electoral Map and poll which claimed that Hillary would win in a landslide?
You know i do think that elections should delayed because of the crisis.

[AngryCanadian]

Who knows if Biden makes it. Last time I saw him interview he looked like he was in bad shape.

Thats the point. Last not forget that one article where they even said "stay Alive" at least you see Trump a lot more on handling the crisis then Biden what would Biden if elected again? sit in his home? open up the airports and allow flights to China?

[susano]

Forget the polls and surveys. The same was said about Hillary Clinton. It's highly unlikely that Trump is not re-elected because the country won't change horses in the middle of the stream - even if we're drowning. That's just the way it is. Set aside the scamdemic for a moment. In the Rep vs Dem political paradigm, nothing has changed other than Democraps being absolutely obsessed with hate and wasting time trying to remove Trump, which failed. They offer NOTHING. Their only plans remain the same - open borders and communism and THAT'S IT. Those who voted for Trump still don't want that. Now add in the scamdemic. Democraps are only angry because the destruction of the country hasn't gone far enough, fast enough, though Trump has done more to usher in their commie nightmare than they could have ever hoped for. Those who voted for Trump will hang on to the hope that he ends this shitshow and the economy gets back to where it was. They know that will never happen with Democraps. I don't see many people changing their votes but more like a low turnout because we're in a parallel reality now where a lot of people are going to feel it doesn't matter and hopelessness sets in.

[susano]

I say once the 1200 checks get there trump moves to 49.9

More than that. He'll pick up a bunch of Bernie voters.

[FunkBuddha]

Hell, I only give Biden a 50% chance of surviving until the election. 75% chance he picks Hillary as his VP though.

[susano]

Yeah, I fear that you're right.

+rep

When you say you fear that, is it because you think Biden would be better than Trump or Democrap control better? IMO, if Democraps were in charge, and executive order would be issued to order the eight states who are not locked down to lock down. They're probably also demand grocery stores be closed and rationing instituted. We are sooooooo fucked right now but I actually believe they would fuck us harder, if that's possible. Here's about where I think we are, no matter who is in office, and I'm not kidding:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lb13ynu3Iac

[susano]

Hell, I only give Biden a 50% chance of surviving until the election. 75% chance he picks Hillary as his VP though.

No, he's going to pick the governor of my state, Gretchen Whitmer, and she is VERY dangerous.

[AngryCanadian]

Look what i found
Source (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_st ein-5952.html)
These pollsters treated Trump the same way in 2016 giving no chance at all while giving Hillary points looks the so called pollsters havent learned anything and i would say how would the state of NY and Cailf vote when everyone is in a lockdown? i am not sure if a election would be even possible right now though. And Joe Biden really isnt the best candidate if there is a debate Trump will destroy him on the travel ban comments and new green deal.

[RonZeplin]

When you say you fear that, is it because you think Biden would be better than Trump or Democrap control better? IMO, if Democraps were in charge, and executive order would be issued to order the eight states who are not locked down to lock down. They're probably also demand grocery stores be closed and rationing instituted. We are sooooooo fucked right now but I actually believe they would fuck us harder, if that's possible. Here's about where I think we are, no matter who is in office, and I'm not kidding:


The global totalitarian Marxist alliance of D&R is much stronger under Trump than it could ever be under Biden.

Much more on the Party of Lincoln, on this RPF thread... http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?397386-Was-Lincoln-a-Marxist&p=6461378&viewfull=1#post6461378
(http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?397386-Was-Lincoln-a-Marxist&p=6461378&viewfull=1#post6461378)
Was Lincoln a Marxist?
(http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?397386-Was-Lincoln-a-Marxist)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIbk1sn_lJY

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.veteranstoday.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F11%2FCommies-2.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

[Pauls' Revere]

Wow, shades of 2016 all over again. People were saying the same thing about Trump going up against Hillary, all the way up to election day.

Do you honestly believe that what ballots people cast at the polls has anything to do with who wins the election??

^^this^^

Election day is all that matters.

[nikcers]

if Trump loses it will be because the MSM misrepresents how he handled this pandemic. The truth is the social distancing and fixes to our healthcare system is working but it's working because a master salesman got the country to do it. This is why politicians aren't able fix anything. This is what Milton Friedman said. Politicians don't get re elected if they solve problems.

[AngryCanadian]

if Trump loses it will be because the MSM misrepresents how he handled this pandemic. The truth is the social distancing and fixes to our healthcare system is working but it's working because a master salesman got the country to do it. This is why politicians aren't able fix anything. This is what Milton Friedman said. Politicians don't get re elected if they solve problems.

I wouldn't trust a politician to handle a pandemic let alone the fact Biden talked about a Green New Deal. Biden isnt a good candidate.

[kpitcher]

I say once the 1200 checks get there trump moves to 49.9

Checks get here in May, shut downs last until at least June is some areas. People will still get sick all summer.

I believe Trump was pushing the 200k+ deaths number so when it hits under 100K he can claim he won against the pandemic with his beyond great leadership. That will help his numbers.

People will still be financially hurt. Trump better have a few 1200 checks hitting, maybe in July and Oct in order to buy the election.

[Warlord]

People will still be financially hurt. Trump better have a few 1200 checks hitting, maybe in July and Oct in order to buy the election.

Congress will keep the checks coming until election day, you can bet on it.
.

[Todd]

This is a curious poll to be citing. His approval rating is up to the highest it's been since he was elected.... and his disapproval rating is down to the lowest it's been since he took office. Some figures are suggesting that Democrats and Independents are happy with the way he has handled the crisis. Who the heck knows.

The only POTUS election poll that ever mattered are the ones that are made by people who bet money. That was the most accurate poll I ever saw in 2012 before they stopped that type of polling data.

[oyarde]

This is a curious poll to be citing. His approval rating is up to the highest it's been since he was elected.... and his disapproval rating is down to the lowest it's been since he took office. Some figures are suggesting that Democrats and Independents are happy with the way he has handled the crisis. Who the heck knows.

The only POTUS election poll that ever mattered are the ones that are made by people who bet money. That was the most accurate poll I ever saw in 2012 before they stopped that type of polling data.

I think money would have trump 49 to 50 and biden about 40 .

[eleganz]

This is a curious poll to be citing. His approval rating is up to the highest it's been since he was elected.... and his disapproval rating is down to the lowest it's been since he took office. Some figures are suggesting that Democrats and Independents are happy with the way he has handled the crisis. Who the heck knows.

The only POTUS election poll that ever mattered are the ones that are made by people who bet money. That was the most accurate poll I ever saw in 2012 before they stopped that type of polling data.

Apparently its a mish mash of polls (how selective, we don't know).

But its clearly made by delusional democrats, likely a joint project between Alyssa Milano working with Tom Arnold.

[eleganz]

Read it and weep. Trump is being CRUSHED by a senile old man.

1247607973519790081
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1247607973519790081


This electoral map is left wing porn and you're jerking off to it.

I mean I know you hate Trump with a TDS passion but theres got to be an ounce of reason left inside your noggin somewhere, even if you have to scrape for it. I hope to lower your expectations of a "crushing" defeat for Trump because I don't want to see you screeching and crying into the sky like those SJW losers because they thought Hilary had a 97% of winning.

This whacky left wing "prediction" has Trump losing FL 65-34 and WI 62-37. Its sad anybody here would take it seriously, let alone creating thread titles like "TRUMP IS TOAST!"

People usually only say "read it and weep" when they have a great hand that they are willing to put money on. Why don't you put money on this prediction Warlord? I plan to wait for the dems to confirm their nominee and if its Biden, I'm putting actual money on Trump.

Let's criticize when Trump necessary but be realistic at the same time. This kool-aid is not realistic, in the least.

[Warlord]

Why don't you put money on this prediction @Warlord (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/member.php?u=48991)? I plan to wait for the dems to confirm their nominee and if its Biden, I'm putting actual money on Trump.

Let's criticize when Trump necessary but be realistic at the same time. This kool-aid is not realistic, in the least.


I don't bet on two horse races. You can lose your money if you want!

No president has ever won in a recession.

[eleganz]

I don't bet on two horse races. You can lose your money if you want!

No president has ever won in a recession.

Usually when the saying "read it and weep" is used (as you did in the OP), it means victory is assured.

Yet you won't bet on it.

So much for "toast".

I'd also like to hear your thoughts on this amazingly accurate electoral map prediction of Trump losing Florida by nearly 30 points.

[Warlord]

Usually when the saying "read it and weep" is used (as you did in the OP), it means victory is assured.

Yet you won't bet on it.

So much for "toast".

I think it will be closer than this poll suggests.

However the poll is a poll of polls from legit sources. Click the link it's all referenced.

Here's another NEW poll that shows Biden with large lead:

Biden leads Trump by 8 points in national Quinnipiac poll

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/491822-biden-leads-trump-by-8-points-in-quinnipiac-poll

[eleganz]

I think it will be closer than this poll suggests.

However the poll is a poll of polls from legit sources. Click the link it's all referenced.

Here's another NEW poll that shows Biden with large lead:

Biden leads Trump by 8 points in national Quinnipiac poll

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/491822-biden-leads-trump-by-8-points-in-quinnipiac-poll

National polls don't matter especially at this stage.

Swing state polls will tell a better picture but it won't matter until after the dems choose their nominee. This is all just basic political common sense.

But please explain how Trump will lose FL by 30 points.

Errr, scratch that...at this point if you're trying to justify the left wing porn in the OP, then I guess never mind, you're too far gone....

[Warlord]

National polls don't matter especially at this stage.

Swing state polls will tell a better picture but it won't matter until after the dems choose their nominee. This is all just basic political common sense.

But please explain how Trump will lose FL by 30 points.

Errr, scratch that...at this point if you're trying to justify the left wing porn in the OP, then I guess never mind, you're too far gone....

It doesn't say he will win FL by 30 points. That's the percentage chance of Biden winning FL.

Click the link yourself and look. There's about two dozen FL polls referenced.

[eleganz]

It doesn't say he will win FL by 30 points. That's the percentage chance of Biden winning FL.

Click the link yourself and look. There's about two dozen FL polls referenced.

If they say Trump is toast, then he must be!

but wait...

http://cdn.vidible.tv/prod/2016-08/02/57a11f911c68992763dfd6f4_1280x720_F_v1.jpg

https://sheriffali.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/aaaliphotos-73.jpg

https://therearenosunglasses.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/huffpo-hillary.jpg?w=500&h=298

[Warlord]

If they say Trump is toast, then he must be!

but wait...


No president has ever won reelection in a recession so I have no reason to doubt these polls even if they seem shocking.

The US is in lockdown so voters are probably venting their frustrations to pollsters.

We will see in November.

[eleganz]

No president has ever won reelection in a recession so I have no reason to doubt these polls even if they seem shocking.

We will see in November.

The map prediction you posted does not reflect surveys done in a recession.

Two completely different arguments.

If you are making the recession argument, then you look at polls that come in a recession. Basic logic.

[Warlord]

The map prediction you posted does not reflect surveys done in a recession.

Two completely different arguments.

If you are making the recession argument, then you look at polls that come in a recession. Basic logic.

The US is basically in a recession and will be by November .

The polls in the link are current. Take FL for example: the latest poll is dated April 4th and by the University of Florida and shows Biden +5.2

In MI April 1st Public Policy Polling: Biden +2.7

etc. etc

.

[Krugminator2]

The US is basically in a recession and will be by November .

The polls in the link are current. Take FL for example: the latest poll is dated April 4th and by the University of Florida and shows Biden +5.2

In MI April 1st Public Policy Polling: Biden +2.7

etc. etc

.

It is essentially a toss up. But Trump is the favorite. I know this because markets say he is the favorite. Markets are better predictor of the future than opinions and polls.

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner

[dannno]

It's based on these surveys:

https://politicalpolls.jhkforecasts.com/general_election

If you take Arizona for example, the senate race there polling shows Mark Kelly the gun grabber husband of Giffords up by 6 over the pathetic R so it could happen.

Hillary Clinton had a 99% chance of winning, they said.

[Warlord]

Hillary Clinton had a 99% chance of winning, they said.

I could flip this round and say the same because as Krugminator posts Trump is favorite to win .

We will see in November .

[dannno]

I could flip this round and say the same because as Krugminator posts Trump is favorite to win .

We will see in November .

No, you can't.

Krug said Trump is going to win not based on the polls, but based on the prediction markets.

The prediction markets in 2016 were in favor of Hillary because the polls were completely faked and they got fooled.

So the markets have adjusted for that, and now they are correctly predicting Trump, because they know the polls are bullshit. It is you that hasn't learned anything. And that is why you should stay out of the prediction markets.

They also see Trump's approval numbers the highest they have been in history.

[Warlord]

It is essentially a toss up. But Trump is the favorite. I know this because markets say he is the favorite. Markets are better predictor of the future than opinions and polls.

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner

Not really. The betting markets had Hillary winning last time and Trump was long odds. I remember it well so like I said I can flip this round and say otherwise.

Also a lot can change between now and November. If there's a deep recession and lockdowns voters will be frustrated and Trump aint winning.

[Warlord]

No, you can't.

Krug said Trump is going to win not based on the polls, but based on the prediction markets.

The prediction markets in 2016 were in favor of Hillary because the polls were completely faked and they got fooled.

So the markets have adjusted for that, and now they are correctly predicting Trump, because they know the polls are bull$#@!. It is you that hasn't learned anything. And that is why you should stay out of the prediction markets.

They also see Trump's approval numbers the highest they have been in history.

Emphasis on 'NOW', what will they say in 6 months after the deepest recession since 1929?

[enhanced_deficit]

This might be bit premature to pronounce, globalist deep neocons funding GOPA wing have deep pockets and close ties to many in media wing/Wall Street/wars profiteers lobbies etc.


Foxnews/CNN have a history of publishing fakenews too, this poll should be viewed with many grains of salt.



Published March 27
Fox News Poll: Biden leads Trump by nine points
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...male-vp-pledge (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-leads-trump-wins-high-marks-for-female-vp-pledge)




Published 4 hours ago
Polls suggest public approval of Trump’s job combating coronavirus fading

By Paul Steinhauser | Fox News

John Roberts reports from the White House.

President Trump has repeatedly praised the federal government’s response to the coronavirus crisis.
“Everybody is amazed at the job we’re doing,” Trump touted at Monday’s White House briefing. “And the public is starting to find out.”
THE LATEST FROM FOX NEWS ON THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
But the president’s comments don’t seem to square with new national polling.
Fifty-four percent of Americans questioned in a new national survey from Monmouth University said the federal government’s measures have not gone far enough to slow the spread of the virus across the country. That’s up 9 percentage points from a month ago. Just 35 percent said the federal government’s measures have been appropriate, down from 47 percent in March.
The survey, released Wednesday, also indicates that 55 percent said the federal government’s not doing enough to help states hard hit by the pandemic, with 37 percent saying Washington is doing enough.
“Most Americans disagree with the Trump administration’s position that the federal government is a backup to the states. The public seems to view this as a national crisis that requires a national response on par with the aggressive approach taken by the states,” Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray highlighted.
A CNN national poll also released Wednesday showed that 41 percent think the federal government’s doing a good job of preventing the spread of the virus. That’s down 7 points from late last month. Fifty-five percent rated Washington’s response as poor, up 8 points.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pol...navirus-fading (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/polls-suggest-public-approval-of-trumps-job-combating-coronavirus-fading)

[Warlord]

This might be bit premature to pronounce, globalist deep neocons funding GOPA wing have deep pockets and close ties to many in media wing/Wall Street/wars profiteers lobbies etc.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pol...navirus-fading (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/polls-suggest-public-approval-of-trumps-job-combating-coronavirus-fading)

You can't win. If the poll shows against someones bias its rigged or wrong. If it shows high approvals for their candidate then its accurate.

All im doing is posting info in the public domain.

If people really think Trump is going to be handsomely re-elected during the deepest recession in 100 years then that is their business.

The polls to me are showing a clear trend that voters - at the moment - are probably frustrated with lockdowns and economic uncertainty which is why they're against the president and why he is down 8 points in 2 different surveys even if that seems outlandish. The only way we will know for sure is when the ballots are cast.

You can bump this thread in 6 months if you like and laugh at me like a few of us did to @phill4paul (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/member.php?u=10850) when he was constantly boasting about the Trump economy.

I was right in that thread too so we will see !

[dannno]

You can't win. If the poll shows against someones bias its rigged or wrong. If it shows high approvals for their candidate then its accurate.

All im doing is posting info in the public domain.

If people really think Trump is going to be handsomely re-elected during the deepest recession in 100 years then that is their business.

The polls to me are showing a clear trend that voters - at the moment - are probably frustrated with lockdowns and economic uncertainty which is why they're against the president and why he is down 8 points in 2 different surveys even if that seems outlandish. The only way we will know for sure is when the ballots are cast.

You can bump this thread in 6 months if you like and laugh at me like a few of us did to @phill4paul (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/member.php?u=10850) when he was constantly boasting about the Trump economy.

I was right in that thread too so we will see !


Lol, ya, everybody is blaming Trump for the Corona Virus :rolleyes:

[Warlord]

Lol, ya, everybody is blaming Trump for the Corona Virus :rolleyes:

Voters are fickle... the MSM will be shilling for Biden. That gives him a huge advantage IMO.

TRUMP only won by 70,000 votes across 4 battleground states to win in 2016. This time he will be running during a deep recession as the incumbent.

If I didn't need the money I would place a bet on Biden but as Krugminator posted there's not much in it even in the betting markets.

The only way I can see Trump winning is if Biden's dementia gets worse and voters decide to turn against him. Of course that is possible but I doubt it.

Biden is not as bad as Hillary in terms of putting people off.

[dannno]

Voters are fickle... the MSM will be shilling for Biden. That gives him a huge advantage IMO.

TRUMP only won by 70,000 votes across 4 battleground states to win in 2016. This time he will be running during a deep recession as the incumbent.

If I didn't need the money I would place a bet on Biden but as Krugminator posted there's not much in it even in the betting markets.

The only way I can see Trump winning is if Biden's dementia gets worse and voters decide to turn against him. Of course that is possible but I doubt it.

Biden is not as bad as Hillary in terms of putting people off.

You are nuts.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt7WPjsYl44

Most people see that and say, ok sounds great Grandpa, but I think it's time for your nap.

[eleganz]

The US is basically in a recession and will be by November .

The polls in the link are current. Take FL for example: the latest poll is dated April 4th and by the University of Florida and shows Biden +5.2

In MI April 1st Public Policy Polling: Biden +2.7

etc. etc

.

Basically is not an argument.

And to say recession is being reflected in current polls is false. You're just attempting to combine the two arguments you're making when they were clearly two arguments.

Real clear average shows Trump is higher this week than last. If we're basically in a recession and your understanding is that today's polls are basically reflecting recession, thats why Trump is down in the polls.

Truly. Flawed. Logic.


You can't win. If the poll shows against someones bias its rigged or wrong. If it shows high approvals for their candidate then its accurate.

All im doing is posting info in the public domain.

The polls to me are showing a clear trend that voters - at the moment - are probably frustrated with lockdowns and economic uncertainty which is why they're against the president and why he is down 8 points in 2 different surveys even if that seems outlandish. The only way we will know for sure is when the ballots are cast.


Frustrated...?

First time ever Trump is above water in a poll. 46/43, over 40% approval in Dec. For basically being a recession, thats not too shabby.....:toady:


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/1-in-4-americans-have-either-lost-their-job-or-had-pay-cut-from-coronavirus-shutdowns-survey.html


One in 10 Americans said they have lost their job and 16% reported they have seen their wages or salary reduced due to the coronavirus shutdowns, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
The survey also found that President Trump’s job rating rose to 46% from 40% in December, with more Americans approving of his handling of the presidency than disapproving for the first time in the three years it’s been tracked by CNBC.
Optimistically, 51% said the economy will improve in the next year.
The quarterly survey polled 800 Americans across the nation from Friday through Monday.

[eleganz]

Voters are fickle... the MSM will be shilling for Biden. That gives him a huge advantage IMO.

TRUMP only won by 70,000 votes across 4 battleground states to win in 2016. This time he will be running during a deep recession as the incumbent.

If I didn't need the money I would place a bet on Biden but as Krugminator posted there's not much in it even in the betting markets.

The only way I can see Trump winning is if Biden's dementia gets worse and voters decide to turn against him. Of course that is possible but I doubt it.

Biden is not as bad as Hillary in terms of putting people off.

- Trump has since increased his share of Asian, latino, black vote, undeniable.
- Consolidated his GOP base (95%+ party support), all the NeverTrump voters that went LP last time, most will come back.
- Add on his growth in rural/working class vote
- As well as the culturally secret Trump voters that the pollsters will definitely miss.

Of course to be fair, we have to include his loss of white suburban voters (who are increasingly liberal), especially women in this category. Other than that, he didn't lose much, it'll be a net gain.

General electorate/main street are not paying attention now. I've said the same about Sanders not being able to win a general election despite current polls showing strength vs. Trump. People will start to pay attention and do their homework after the first debates. Biden doesn't sink now, he will sink in the first debate. But I don't even think its a guarantee Biden will get the nomination, they might do a deal with him to give it to a stronger opponent. Advertising season would destroy Biden, American's already know who Trump is.

[Mordan]

But I don't even think its a guarantee Biden will get the nomination, they might do a deal with him to give it to a stronger opponent. Advertising season would destroy Biden, American's already know who Trump is.


So you are seeing the DNC shafting Bernie Bros a third time? If its not Biden.. then its Sanders. I don't see how they get can away with it, "democrats" would become "plutocrats"

[Krugminator2]

Not really. The betting markets had Hillary winning last time and Trump was long odds. I remember it well so like I said I can flip this round and say otherwise.

Also a lot can change between now and November. If there's a deep recession and lockdowns voters will be frustrated and Trump aint winning.

Actually the betting sites were surprisingly accurate. Pundits and models thought Hillary was a sure thing. Saw a lot of models put Hillary at 95%+ https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_n_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

The betting sites had trump as a 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 underdog around the election. https://wgntv.com/news/politics/what-are-the-odds-of-trump-clinton-winning-the-2016-presidential-election/ "The gambling firms showed Clinton's odds of winning were roughly 80% on Tuesday. https://money.cnn.com/2016/11/09/news/betting-election-donald-trump-win/index.html

In retrospect 3 to 1 was probably just about right. Everything went Trump's way and he won a very close election. Lost the popular vote and won a bunch of states by the skin of his teeth.

The markets right now say the election is nearly even money, which objectively means Trump is far from toast. Arguing with markets is a good way to lose money. Or perhaps you have created models and made millions betting, in which case disregard what I said.

[Warlord]

The markets right now say the election is nearly even money. Arguing with markets is a good way to lose money.

Oddschecker has it like this:

Trump 10/11 (Fav)
Biden: 5/6

There's not much in it. We're talking half a point in odds.

You aint getting rich backing the winner and i'm going for Biden based on the fact that Trump is an incumbent seeking re-election during a recession.

He has made a huge mess by spending so much and not being honest and cutting the size of government and balancing the budget. Furthermore his intervention in the economy will make things worse. Higher debt, deficits, more inflation. He aint winning an election with all this sh1t happening. In my opinion of course.

[Krugminator2]

Oddschecker has it like this:

Trump 10/11 (Fav)
Biden: 5/6

There's not much in it. We're talking half a point in odds.




So you rephrased exactly what I said.


You aint getting rich backing the winner and i'm going for Biden based on the fact that Trump is an incumbent seeking re-election during a recession.

I am not backing anyone. I have no opinion who will win other than what the markets say. The markets say the race is even or Trump is a slight favorite.

You said Trump was toast, which disagrees with the most accurate measure of reality. In fact if you possessed such great insight you would become the richest person in the world if you made enough bets getting 1 to 1 odds where the actual odds are "toast".

Biden winning doesn't mean you were right just like Trump winning wouldn't mean I was right. Biden is going to win nearly half the time.

[Warlord]

So you rephrased exactly what I said.



I am not backing anyone. I have no opinion who will win other than what the markets say. The markets say the race is even or Trump is a slight favorite.

And you absolutely would get rich if you had actual insight into betting. In fact you would become the richest person in the world if you made enough bets getting 1 to 1 odds where the actual odds are "toast".

The odds for both are slim. There's no value in placing a bet and I aint risking it.

All im saying is that Biden will prevail because of the mess Trump has created through deficit spending and not being honest. Voters will punish him even it means electing someone who appears senile.

Bump the thread in November i'm not too bothered if you laugh at me. The prediction is based on common sense and the polling which ive posted here and its referenced in that link.

[Krugminator2]

The odds for both are slim. There's no value in placing a bet and I aint risking it.



What you just said is completely incoherent. You can reread the last sentence of my last post.


Bump the thread in November i'm not too bothered if you laugh at me

If Biden won all 50 states you would still have been wrong in your assessment.

[Warlord]

What you just said is completely incoherent.



If Biden won all 50 states you would still have been wrong in your assessment.

What are you talking about? Biden needs 270 electoral votes. The map ive posted has him reaching that easily (excludes toss up states).

Go and do some research .

[Krugminator2]

What are you talking about? Biden needs 270 electoral votes. The map ive posted has him reaching that easily (excludes toss up states).

Go and do some research .

Ok.

[Mordan]

The odds for both are slim. There's no value in placing a bet and I aint risking it.


both slim ok.. so why are you saying that Trump is toasted? You are just another TDS sufferer.

Biden has a lot of baggage, a lot that is unknown yet.

[KEEF]

both slim ok.. so why are you saying that Trump is toasted? You are just another TDS sufferer.

Biden has a lot of baggage, a lot that is unknown yet.
My thing with all this baggage is that I don’t think the COVID19 scare is going to allow for the airing out of all of this laundry. I think that debates will be few and far between. This election is going to be pretty under cover right up until the end of October by MSM.

There will be no PedoJoe memes, and little time to tie Biden to anything on what Trump was impeached on.

Hell wouldn’t be surprised if it is declared that all ballots will be mandatory mail-in, ya know so that their “counted accurately.”

[nikcers]

My thing with all this baggage is that I don’t think the COVID19 scare is going to allow for the airing out of all of this laundry. I think that debates will be few and far between. This election is going to be pretty under cover right up until the end of October by MSM.

There will be no PedoJoe memes, and little time to tie Biden to anything on what Trump was impeached on.

Hell wouldn’t be surprised if it is declared that all ballots will be mandatory mail-in, ya know so that their “counted accurately.”

We already know the Democrats will cheat if it goes to mail in only. They already pay Democrat operatives to register people to vote in blue states and they throw away non Democrat registrations.

[euphemia]

I keep telling you people about the MSM and you keep right on buying in.

[nikcers]

Trump basically got to refinance a lot of debt at a lower interest rate. This is going to make the economy boom. They made Bernie Sanders suspend so he would stop scaring away domestic investment.

[devil21]

Who knows if Biden makes it. Last time I saw him interview he looked like he was in bad shape.

I think we can all agree that drawing ANY specific conclusions/predictions about what the rest of the year holds is utterly pointless.

[PAF]

I think we can all agree that drawing ANY specific conclusions/predictions about what the rest of the year holds is utterly pointless.

Agreed.

[Warlord]

This is a curious poll to be citing. His approval rating is up to the highest it's been since he was elected.....

Sorry to burst your bubble but he is well under water now:

1248332397231452163

[Warlord]

both slim ok.. so why are you saying that Trump is toasted? You are just another TDS sufferer.

Biden has a lot of baggage, a lot that is unknown yet.

LOL!

The odds on Betfair (betting exchange)

Donald Trump: 2.04
Biden: 2.3

There is half a point between them.

Now we have surveys that show him down 8 points to Biden and disapproval at 54/43 which tallies the losing margin to Biden in those polls.

By November its going to be worse.

I think he's done.. i'm just not putting money on it.

And i dont have TDS. I wanted him to do well and deliver on his campaign promises but he has gone full blown socialist and is trying to drive Massie and Amash out of the party by being mean (in Amash's case he was successful), The kindest thing I can say about him is that he hasn't started a new war unlike his 5 predecessors .

[eleganz]

LOL!

The odds on Betfair (betting exchange)

Donald Trump: 2.04
Biden: 2.3

There is half a point between them.

Now we have surveys that show him down 8 points to Biden and disapproval at 54/43 which tallies the losing margin to Biden in those polls.

By November its going to be worse.

I think he's done.. i'm just not putting money on it.

And i dont have TDS. I wanted him to do well and deliver on his campaign promises but he has gone full blown socialist and is trying to drive Massie and Amash out of the party by being mean (in Amash's case he was successful), The kindest thing I can say about him is that he hasn't started a new war unlike his 5 predecessors .

You still haven't responded to my last post to you, which I think are fair points.

But by now I doubt you're going to admit in anyway that you are nothing short of guaranteed in your prediction.

Yet you won't put money on it.

[Warlord]

You still haven't responded to my last post to you, which I think are fair points.

But by now I doubt you're going to admit in anyway that you are nothing short of guaranteed in your prediction.

Yet you won't put money on it.

I try and respond to all posts but the one talking about is nonsense which is why I didn't respond.

We can talk about his approvals. He is at 55% disapprove and there's 17 million unemployed. The economy will officially be in recession by November and there could higher unemployment (I hope not really I do). He is not getting re-elected with all this sh1t going on . No other president has so why do you think Trump will be the exception?

[dannno]

Sorry to burst your bubble but he is well under water now:

1248332397231452163

https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/gn8nry6qwkcf-roobmaaog.png


https://i.imgur.com/5h1Hf9W.jpg


POLITICS
MARCH 24, 2020
President Trump's Job Approval Rating Up to 49%
https://news.gallup.com/poll/298313/president-trump-job-approval-rating.aspx

[Todd]

Sorry to burst your bubble but he is well under water now:

1248332397231452163

He was around 54 to 58% when he took office. He lingers there. Your not going to change the opinion of those who already hate him. Nobody has changed mine. He was never popular coming in. If he's under water now what was he when his numbers were around 62

[Ender]

LOL!

The odds on Betfair (betting exchange)

Donald Trump: 2.04
Biden: 2.3

There is half a point between them.

Now we have surveys that show him down 8 points to Biden and disapproval at 54/43 which tallies the losing margin to Biden in those polls.

By November its going to be worse.

I think he's done.. i'm just not putting money on it.

And i dont have TDS. I wanted him to do well and deliver on his campaign promises but he has gone full blown socialist and is trying to drive Massie and Amash out of the party by being mean (in Amash's case he was successful), The kindest thing I can say about him is that he hasn't started a new war unlike his 5 predecessors .

Maybe.

The US does have war ships headed to Venezuela & Maduro has been declared a drug dealer by Trump.

[Warlord]

Maybe.

The US does have war ships headed to Venezuela & Maduro has been declared a drug dealer by Trump.

Nothing like a good war to distract attention. I wouldn't put anything past him.

[Todd]

Warlord has one thing I agree with. The sitting president under a bad economy has a big hurdle. Don't just assume that a walking talking moron zombie like Biden can't win the WH. George W. did.

[Warlord]

Warlord has one thing I agree with. The sitting president under a bad economy has a big hurdle. Don't just assume that a walking talking moron zombie like Biden can't win the WH. George W. did.

Things don't look good for him. I accept Biden is a senile controlled tool but he might look a good option compared to Trump when there;s 30 million unemployed .

[enhanced_deficit]

Trump still has realestate/hotels/casino/reality Tv businesses in US/India/Russia and other countries to fallback on in case the unthinkable happens and the 'toast' narrative materializes in Nov 2020. But based on recent trajectory, there is increasing chance that GOPA wing/its Globalist Neocon funders/Deep Ziocons (right wing factions) etc will be toast.



Warlord has one thing I agree with. The sitting president under a bad economy has a big hurdle. Don't just assume that a walking talking moron zombie like Biden can't win the WH. George W. did.

EM.

I don't assuem that.

[Ender]

Nothing like a good war to distract attention. I wouldn't put anything past him.

Agree- not to mention all the crap thrown at Iran.

[Warlord]

Update:

1248679684050690048
https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/1248679684050690048

[Warlord]

Agree- not to mention all the crap thrown at Iran.
.
Just to prove I dont have this 'TDS' I have numerous times praised Trump for not starting another quagmire/war like his 5 predecessors (yet) That is the only thing i can complement him on.

He might be remembered as one of the worst presidents ever if everything collapses on his watch (and that looks likely). He is certainly going to be one of the biggest spending president's in history eclipsing both Bush and Obama combined if he has his way.

[Mordan]

.
Just to prove I dont have this 'TDS' I have numerous times praised Trump for not starting another quagmire/war like his 5 predecessors (yet) That is the only thing i can complement him on.

He might be remembered as one of the worst presidents ever if everything collapses on his watch (and that looks likely). He is certainly going to be one of the biggest spending president's in history eclipsing both Bush and Obama combined if he has his way.

Saying Trump is Toasted is enough. That's wishfull thinking of a TDS sufferer.

Trump sucked at many things. Unfortunately Power is a balance act. He was villified by both the left and his party.

Overall he is doing ok though. He won't go to war with anyone and that will be his biggest achievement.

Printing money is what any president would have done. The system is beyond repair at this point. Just kick the can down the road. Sad but true. :(

Trump actually helps by printing more and more. It will usher a new system faster. Be prepared. Buy hard money.

[Warlord]

Saying Trump is Toasted is enough. That's wishfull thinking of a TDS sufferer.

Trump sucked at many things. Unfortunately Power is a balance act. He was villified by both the left and his party.

Overall he is doing ok though. He won't go to war with anyone and that will be his biggest achievement.

Printing money is what any president would have done. The system is beyond repair at this point. Just kick the can down the road. Sad but true. :(

Trump actually helps by printing more and more. It will usher a new system faster. Be prepared. Buy hard money.


Quite frankly that's nonsense. He inherited a large deficit from Obama but instead of being honest with the people and demanding cuts to the size of government he went on to expand government and increase the deficit and debt by an even bigger margin than his predecessors.

He is nothing but a big government Socialist.

Further he has tried to expel actual fiscal conservatives from the GOP and in the case of Amash he managed to succeed. These are congressman who we have spent a lot of time helping/raising money for and for that idiot to want them out of the party is a disgrace.

He's going to lose in November to a demented fool and I for one will be glad he's gone.

If he gets 4 more years he will add more to the debt than Bush/Obama combined.

[PAF]

Quite frankly that's nonsense. He inherited a large deficit from Obama but instead of being honest with the people and demanding cuts to the size of government he went on to expand government and increase the deficit and debt by an even bigger margin than his predecessors.

He is nothing but a big government Socialist.

Further he has tried to expel actual fiscal conservatives from the GOP and in the case of Amash he managed to succeed. These are congressman who we have spent a lot of time helping/raising money for and for that idiot to want them out of the party is a disgrace.

He's going to lose in November to a demented fool and I for one will be glad he's gone.

If he gets 4 more years he will add more to the debt than Bush/Obama combined.

Yep.

And if he does not get 4 more years, some of the “republicans” might push back against a democrat prez for doing the same, just to keep the show alive.

[nikcers]

Quite frankly that's nonsense. He inherited a large deficit from Obama but instead of being honest with the people and demanding cuts to the size of government he went on to expand government and increase the deficit and debt by an even bigger margin than his predecessors.

He is nothing but a big government Socialist.

Further he has tried to expel actual fiscal conservatives from the GOP and in the case of Amash he managed to succeed. These are congressman who we have spent a lot of time helping/raising money for and for that idiot to want them out of the party is a disgrace.

He's going to lose in November to a demented fool and I for one will be glad he's gone.

If he gets 4 more years he will add more to the debt than Bush/Obama combined.

if the democrats win the green new deal and Medicare for all would add more debt than Trump would in 12 years.

[PAF]

if the democrats win the green new deal and Medicare for all would add more debt than Trump would in 12 years.

The gubermint NEVER reduces its size, regardless which “party” is “in”. In fact, it has NEVER stayed the SAME size. Anything else is an illusion, and provides “a little hope” so that people continue to play.

[Mordan]

He is nothing but a big government Socialist.


Was Trump elected to be a small government libertarian? NO!

Trump is the king of debt. He was against wars and his campaign gave him stellar anti deep state credentials. Look how the establishment treated him during the primaries.. That's the main reason why he was elected. That's why i like him. I know he knows.. He is doing the best to stay alive and keep his family safe and being president of the USA.

[enhanced_deficit]

Was Trump elected to be a small government libertarian? NO!




^this.

His top donor is Iran war/sanctions championing, Israeli military funding globalist neoconservative Adelson.
GOPA leadesr recently signed largest US taxpayers funded foreign aid bill to our closest ally and only non-racist, non-war criminal democracy in mideast to the tune of $38 Billion.





Trump is the king of debt.

Seems that way.

National debt hits $24 trillion (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?520482-National-debt-hits-21-trillion&)





He was against wars and his campaign gave him stellar anti deep state credentials. Look how the establishment treated him during the primaries.. That's the main reason why he was elected. That's why i like him. I know he knows.. He is doing the best to stay alive and keep his family safe and being president of the USA.

He has mixed record on that.

Iraq invasion architect Elliott Abrams quietly slips into Trump administration (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?530753-Iraq-invasion-architect-Elliott-Abrams-quietly-slips-into-Trump-administration&)

Trump is a Friend of Zion (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?522256-Trump-is-a-Friend-of-Zion&)


BBC Producer's Syria Bombshell: Douma "Gas Attack" Footage "Was Staged" (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?531556-BBC-Producer-s-Syria-Bombshell-Douma-quot-Gas-Attack-quot-Footage-quot-Was-Staged-quot&)

https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/pmcomposite-twin-up-insetivanka.jpg?strip=all&quality=100&w=750&h=500&crop=1


US, Israeli efforts put Iraq’s stability on the line ; 104 killed in Iraq unrest, 6000 wounded (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?539959-US-Israeli-efforts-put-Iraq’s-stability-on-the-line-104-killed-in-Iraq-unrest-6000-wounded&)

[Warlord]

Was Trump elected to be a small government libertarian? NO!

Trump is the king of debt. He was against wars and his campaign gave him stellar anti deep state credentials. Look how the establishment treated him during the primaries.. That's the main reason why he was elected. That's why i like him. I know he knows.. He is doing the best to stay alive and keep his family safe and being president of the USA.

No, he a Republican and should follow the platform. He has the gall to go after Massie and Amash when they're standing for the GOP platform. Donald is nothing but a big government Socialist. He's no better than Bush or Obama and he's going to find out the hard way for being a wimp and not sorting out the mess years ago.

'All political careers end in failure' is a great quote . Donald is going to go down as one of the worst president's ever (certainly one of the biggest spending ones anyway).

What exactly has he achieved apart from a great big freaking mess ?

[nikcers]

No, he a Republican and should follow the platform. He has the gall to go after Massie and Amash when they're standing for the GOP platform. Donald is nothing but a big government Socialist. He's no better than Bush or Obama and he's going to find out the hard way for being a wimp and not sorting out the mess years ago.

'All political careers end in failure' is a great quote . Donald is going to go down as one of the worst president's ever (certainly one of the biggest spending ones anyway).

What exactly has he achieved apart from a great big freaking mess ?

Trump's approval rating among the GOP is really high so that sort of throws cold water on your talking point about not doing what the party wants.

[Mordan]

^this.



you are dishonest with the war.. Mixed bag??? Its the first president for how many years that is not invovled in any kind of open warfare?????? There is no argument. Trump didn't start any war and tried his best to bring back the troops.

[enhanced_deficit]

I meant mixed record on wars as in his conduct regarding wars, global interventions.
Dropping bombs in Syria, Iraq are all acts of war. Granted his top donor is a globalist neocon and pro Iran war Israel Firster, so I guess you could argue that he "tried" very hard to disobey the rules of 'follow the money' and stood up to deep neocons, perpetually insecure wars hungry ziocons.


In other news, NBC MTP host has declared GOPA leader's approval rating curve flattened

[Mordan]

I meant mixed record on wars as in his conduct regarding wars, global interventions.
Dropping bombs in Syria, Iraq are all acts of war.

Crumbs to neocons to let them feel they have some power over him.

No new wars. Troops back. Expect more of that with Trump in 2021. What are you gonna get with the Biden puppet?