POLL: Buttigieg, Sanders surge sets up 4-way tie in New Hampshire

[Warlord]

7371


Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have seen a spike in support in New Hampshire and are now knotted with former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) at the top, according to a new poll.

The latest Monmouth University survey of New Hampshire finds Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., with a narrow lead at 20 percent support, followed by Biden at 19 percent, Sanders at 18 percent and Warren at 15 percent.

The previous survey from September found Warren and Biden alone at the top, at 27 percent and 25 percent support, respectively. Warren has since lost 12 points and Biden has fallen by 6 points, while Buttigieg has gained 10 points and Sanders has gained 6 points.

Sanders boasts the best favorability rating in the field and is the only top-tier candidate to see his favorability rating improve since September. He sits at 69 favorable and 23 unfavorable, up from a 63-28 split in September.

Warren saw the largest drop in favorability, going from 74 positive and 19 negative to 64 positive and 27 negative in the latest poll.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) is the other big gainer but is still languishing in the mid-single digits, picking up 4 points to come in at 6 percent support.

Seven percent of New Hampshire voters are undecided and are not leaning toward any candidate. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will not be on the ballot in New Hampshire and was not included in the survey.

“The race remains fairly wide open,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. “To the extent that New Hampshire voters could take some cues from Iowa, it’s also worth keeping an eye on lower polling candidates like Klobuchar if any of the leading contenders stumble in the earlier Iowa contest.”

The Iowa caucuses take place on Feb. 3, and the New Hampshire primary is on Feb. 11.

Rounding out the field in New Hampshire are Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) and billionaire Tom Steyer at 4 percent, businessman Andrew Yang at 3 percent, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) at 2 percent and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) at 1 percent.

It’s likely that this group of candidates will miss the cut for Tuesday's Democratic debate, which is poised to feature the fewest number of candidates to date. So far, only Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar have met the polling and fundraising thresholds.

Candidates have until Friday to reach 5 percent support in four national polls or 7 percent support in two early-state polls.

That’s particularly galling for Yang, who far exceeded the fundraising requirements with his $16.5 million fourth quarter haul. But Yang has only hit the polling threshold in one qualifying survey. He has been venting frustration at the lack of polls that have been released since the Dec. 20 Democratic debate.

Sanders tops the field among self-described liberals at 26 percent support, followed closely by Warren at 24 percent. Self-described moderate and conservative Democrats are split between Buttigieg at 25 percent and Biden at 22 percent.

Sanders has staked his campaign on turning out new voters who have not traditionally participated in the Democratic primary process, but Monmouth ran different analyses to include low-propensity voters and did not find much of a boost for Sanders.

When more weight is given to low-propensity voters, Biden, Buttigieg and Sanders are tied at 19 percent, with Warren coming in at 15 percent.

When more weight is given to traditional primary voters, Buttigieg opens up a wider lead with 23 percent support, followed by Biden at 20 percent, Sanders at 16 percent and Warren at 15 percent.

Monmouth also asked voters who their preference would be if only the top four candidates were in the race.

In that instance, Biden is in the top spot at 24 percent, followed by Buttigieg at 23 percent, Sanders at 21 percent and Warren at 18 percent. Five percent of Democrats said they would not support any of the top-four candidates. About half of those who would abstain support Gabbard at the moment.

The Monmouth University survey of 404 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire was conducted from Jan. 3 to 7 and has a 4.9 percentage point margin of error.


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/477508-poll-buttigieg-sanders-surge-to-set-up-4-way-tie-in-new-hampshire

[AngryCanadian]

I feel Sanders has a chance this year no thanks to Trump's decision to attack Iran in Iraq.

[timosman]

https://genesiustimes.com/deceased-iranian-general-soleimani-surges-into-4th-place-in-democratic-primary-race/
https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.129/d24.097.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/democratic-poll.jpg

[Warlord]

I feel Sanders has a chance this year no thanks to Trump's decision to attack Iran in Iraq.

Yeah definitely but he's losing support in NH. What's going on Anti Federalist?

[Warlord]

Related:

Is Pete Buttigieg a CIA plant?

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?542728-Is-Pete-Buttigieg-a-CIA-plant

[oyarde]

CIA boosting its candidate bootyjudge ?

[Anti Federalist]

Yeah definitely but he's losing support in NH. What's going on Anti Federalist?

Fluid race that's all...I still maintain that Sanders will win the NH democrat primary.

[Schifference]

Fluid race that's all...I still maintain that Sanders will win the NH democrat primary.

Who do you predict to ultimately become the Democrat Nominee?

[Anti Federalist]

Who do you predict to ultimately become the Democrat Nominee?

My crystal ball has had a lousy track record here lately...let's see:

https://i2.wp.com/johnnymaraca.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/img_0178-1.jpg?fit=175%2C265&ssl=1

Sanders/Warren

Maybe Sanders/ButtPlug

[Schifference]

My crystal ball has had a lousy track record here lately...let's see:

https://i2.wp.com/johnnymaraca.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/img_0178-1.jpg?fit=175%2C265&ssl=1

Sanders/Warren

Maybe Sanders/ButtPlug

Do you think they can prevail over Trump?

[Warlord]

Trump can't afford to lose MI. I think he's done.



2020 Democrats top Trump in Michigan match-ups: poll

A poll in Michigan finds several 2020 Democratic White House hopefuls leading President Trump in hypothetical match-ups in the crucial battleground state, according to The Detroit News.

The Glengariff Group poll showed former Vice President Joe Biden with the widest lead, at 50 percent to Trump’s 43 percent, followed by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 47 percent to 41 percent, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) with a 4-point lead, 49 percent to 45 percent.

Both Biden and Sanders have lost ground compared to another survey conducted in June, when they both led Trump in hypothetical Michigan match-ups, 53 percent to 41 percent. Bloomberg had not yet entered the race at the time of the earlier poll.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg both lead Trump in the new survey by 2 points, within its margin of error.

Pollsters also found intensity levels at historic highs for Democrats, Republicans and independents.

"The more we do polling, the more the numbers look the same to me," Glengariff founder Richard Czuba told the newspaper, noting the continued Democratic advantage in the state. He added that Trump could still win the state, depending on the Democratic nominee.

Trump’s 10,704-vote victory in Michigan in 2016 was the slimmest margin of the three pivotal states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — that swept him into the White House.

The new poll was conducted among 600 likely Michigan voters between Jan. 3 and Jan. 7. It has a 4-point margin of error.


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/477478-2020-democrats-top-trump-in-michigan-matchups-poll

[Swordsmyth]

The Demoncrats will have a brokered convention and Hitlery will take the nomination.
None of them can beat Trump.

[Warlord]

The Demoncrats will have a brokered convention and Hitlery will take the nomination.
None of them can beat Trump.

The poll is MI should be concerning.

[Swordsmyth]

The poll is MI should be concerning.
Not really.

[AngryCanadian]

The Demoncrats will have a brokered convention and Hitlery will take the nomination.
None of them can beat Trump.

None of them expect Sanders and whats Trump going to do in the debates? act like a child and throw insults towards the person?
Trump has lost the anti war movement this year. Nothing that he will say about the middle east or Syria will make voters of the anti war side believe in your clown.

[Warlord]

Not really.

He only won MI by 10k votes. He can't afford to lose it. He also won FL by only 1%. I predict he's going to lose to any Democrat.

[Swordsmyth]

He only won MI by 10k votes. He can't afford to lose it. He also won FL by only 1%. I predict he's going to lose to any Democrat.
Polls are always biased to push people towards the left and polls this early mean absolutely nothing.

Trump has it in the bag and the left has no credible candidate.

[Warlord]

Polls are always biased to push people towards the left and polls this early mean absolutely nothing.

Trump has it in the bag and the left has no credible candidate.

Not polls but 2016. Trump won Mi-WI-PA by 75k votes. He is seriously in trouble especially with the current mess in the Mid East.

[AngryCanadian]

Not polls but 2016. Trump won Mi-WI-PA by 75k votes. He is seriously in trouble especially with the current mess in the Mid East.

Trump could actually win this year when the Iraqi happened GW Bush won his re election dispute the negative news stories from Iraq that were happening so in theory he could win as long he is not pushed further. I still think Trump was dragged into doing this air strike though, judging from the press briefing he gave he clearly didn't look so good.

[Warlord]

Trump could actually win this year when the Iraqi happened GW Bush won his re election dispute the negative news stories from Iraq that were happening so in theory he could win as long he is not pushed further. I still think Trump was dragged into doing this air strike though, judging from the press briefing he gave he clearly didn't look so good.

Anything can happen between now and then.. the current mess could get worse as these things do and the economy could slow down sharply. He only beat Hillary by 75k in the battlegroun stakes. I think he;s going down but we'll see. I dont think he can repeat what he did in 2016 with all that's going on.

Remember he said he said he would bring troops home. The commercials are going to be brutal espcially if Sanders wins. They will play the clips of Trump and say he has broken his promises.

[Warlord]

WI POLL... Trump losing here too and he only won it narrowly in 2016, worried yet Sword?

---
In head-to-head matchups in Wisconsin, which is expected to be a closely-watched general election state, Biden leads President Donald Trump, 46 percent to 41 percent. Sanders leads Trump, 46 percent to 42 percent.

[AngryCanadian]

Anything can happen between now and then.. the current mess could get worse as these things do and the economy could slow down sharply. He only beat Hillary by 75k in the battlegroun stakes. I think he;s going down but we'll see. I dont think he can repeat what he did in 2016 with all that's going on.

Remember he said he said he would bring troops home. The commercials are going to be brutal espcially if Sanders wins. They will play the clips of Trump and say he has broken his promises.

agreed. And Trump who posted that American flag on his twitter when his admin ordered the air strike was not a wise decision.

[Swordsmyth]

WI POLL... Trump losing here too and he only won it narrowly in 2016, worried yet Sword?

---
In head-to-head matchups in Wisconsin, which is expected to be a closely-watched general election state, Biden leads President Donald Trump, 46 percent to 41 percent. Sanders leads Trump, 46 percent to 42 percent.
I'm not worried at all.

Enemy propaganda doesn't scare me.

[kahless]

If Buttigieg wins it guarantees a Trump win. There is no way the country will elect an openly gay man for President.

[oyarde]

The poll is MI should be concerning.

Actually looks pretty close as expected , if that is a poll of 700 people from large cities with a margin of error of about four percent with sanders it is essentially tied , advantage trump . Way better than he would have been polling there before last election .

[Warlord]

Actually looks pretty close as expected , if that is a poll of 700 people from large cities with a margin of error of about four percent with sanders it is essentially tied , advantage trump . Way better than he would have been polling there before last election .

IF bernie can get the young people out and his excited supporters he will beat Trump in the battleground states o MI-WI-PA.

[Anti Globalist]

The only reason hes doing so well in these polls is because hes gay. If he were straight, he would probably be in last place.

[Swordsmyth]

IF bernie can get the young people out and his excited supporters he will beat Trump in the battleground states o MI-WI-PA.

Or not.

remember Corbyn?

[oyarde]

IF bernie can get the young people out and his excited supporters he will beat Trump in the battleground states o MI-WI-PA.

Possible but I would not put any faith in young people voting .

[Warlord]

Possible but I would not put any faith in young people voting .

The fact that he's raising 30 million a quarter and polling well tells you something. He has an appeal. Don't forget he's promising to cancel student debt ...

[Warlord]

Or not.

remember Corbyn?

Different system. The UK is a parliamentary election. Bernie only has to win a few states that Trump narrowly won by a handful of votes. its not difficult

[Swordsmyth]

Different system. The UK is a parliamentary election. Bernie only has to win a few states that Trump narrowly won by a handful of votes. its not difficult
I know it's a different system.
But the results will be the same.

Bernie has to worry about the states Trump will win that he didn't win last time.

[Warlord]

I know it's a different system.
But the results will be the same.

Bernie has to worry about the states Trump will win that he didn't win last time.

What states?

[oyarde]

The fact that he's raising 30 million a quarter and polling well tells you something. He has an appeal. Don't forget he's promising to cancel student debt ...

I would expect the dem front runner to be raking it in .

[Swordsmyth]

What states?
Minnesota
New Mexico
Nevada
New Hampshire

Possibly:

Virginia
Maine
Others

[Warlord]

I would expect the dem front runner to be raking it in .

He will have enough money to be on tv. all he needs to do is target a few states and flood them with ads promising free sh*t

[Warlord]

Minnesota
New Mexico
Nevada
New Hampshire

Possibly:

Virginia
Maine
Others

Minnesota
http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-trump-vs-democratic-candidates/563150861/


Bernie leading 9 points

New Mexico
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/newmexicopoll

Bernie leads by 16 points

Nevada

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-and-sanders-vie-for-lead-in-nevada-biden-tops-trump

Sanders is up by five over Trump (46-41),

New Hampshire

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_sanders-6780.html

Bernie up 3.5 points average

Virginia

http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_sanders-6989.html

Bernie up 3.5 average

Maine
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/me/maine_trump_vs_sanders-6923.html

Bernie up 8 points average

[Swordsmyth]

Minnesota
http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-trump-vs-democratic-candidates/563150861/


Bernie leading 9 points

New Mexico
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/newmexicopoll

Bernie leads by 16 points

Nevada

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-and-sanders-vie-for-lead-in-nevada-biden-tops-trump

Sanders is up by five over Trump (46-41),

New Hampshire

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_sanders-6780.html

Bernie up 3.5 points average

Virginia

http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_sanders-6989.html

Bernie up 3.5 average

Maine
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/me/maine_trump_vs_sanders-6923.html

Bernie up 8 points average
Polls (which always are biased to the left) don't bother me and they really don't matter this early.

Look at the polls in 2016 for the states Trump won in 2016.

[Anti Federalist]

More from RCP on the nomination side.

Bernie leads IA by .3 percent (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html)

Bernie leads NH by 2.7 percent (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html)

[Warlord]

Polls (which always are biased to the left) don't bother me and they really don't matter this early.

Look at the polls in 2016 for the states Trump won in 2016.#

Did Trump win any of those states you mentioned? You said he would win states he didnt win last time. No chance.

[timosman]

Not polls but 2016. Trump won Mi-WI-PA by 75k votes. He is seriously in trouble especially with the current mess in the Mid East.

https://media.giphy.com/media/Ne7aenG4oM1Py/giphy.gif

[Warlord]

Trump needs to hold on to MI/PA/WI/FL all of which he won by very small margins in 2016. I think by November he will have trouble holding them especially if the current mess continues,

[Swordsmyth]

#

Did Trump win any of those states you mentioned? You said he would win states he didnt win last time. No chance.
He didn't, you asked for a list of states he would win that he didn't in 2016 and I gave you such a list.
He will do much better this time than last time, especially if a lunatic like Bernie is his opponent.

[Swordsmyth]

Trump needs to hold on to MI/PA/WI/FL all of which he won by very small margins in 2016. I think by November he will have trouble holding them especially if the current mess continues,
He will not have any trouble and things will only get better as November approaches.

[Warlord]

Sword, he has no chance to expand the map like you suggest. He will be lucky to hold on to MI/PA/WI/FL before he can think about those other states which are Hillary states. He is not going to win them.

[Swordsmyth]

Sword, he has no chance to expand the map like you suggest. He will be lucky to hold on to MI/PA/WI/FL before he can think about those other states which are Hillary states. He is not going to win them.
That's just plain wrong.
It's the kind of thing the MSM was saying last time.

[timosman]

That's just plain wrong.
It's the kind of thing the MSM was saying last time.

But this time is for realz.

[Warlord]

The MSM were using popular vote to convince themselves Hillary would win but Trump narrowly won the battleground states like MI by 10k votes !! It's not difficult to win those back and Trump can't afford to lose many of these states.

[Swordsmyth]

The MSM were using popular vote to convince themselves Hillary would win but Trump narrowly won the battleground states like MI by 10k votes !! It's not difficult to win those back and Trump can't afford to lose many of these states.
They were convinced he couldn't win the states he won.
And he is just going to be more popular now than last time.

[Warlord]

They were convinced he couldn't win the states he won.
And he is just going to be more popular now than last time.

I have serious doubts about that. His foreign policy is a real mess and voters dont approve, especially independents.

[Anti Federalist]

Polls (which always are biased to the left) don't bother me and they really don't matter this early.

Look at the polls in 2016 for the states Trump won in 2016.

If it comes down to Trump vs. Sanders, I think Trump would pull it off.

What nobody seems willing to address is how close it would be.

In 1972 Nixon, an almost universally despised and distrusted president and individual, bogged down in Vietnam, with a failing economy, ran against McGovern who, at the time was viewed as a wild eyed leftist, but in today's world would be a "moderate" somewhere slightly to the right of Biden.

And it was an utter blowout in favor of Nixon. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_United_States_presidential_election)

Let's assume that Trump goes into November with a continued good economy and no new wars.

He'll have a fight on hands running against a no shit, full blown, USSR emulating, "government should own the means of production" communist.

Between the immigration invasion displacing and replacing the existing population and the Marxist takeover of almost any institution that sets the tone and direction of the nation: schools, media organs, think tanks, charitable foundations and the rest, I'm not surprised.

A Sanders/Warren ticket would win at least 15 states, handily and the popular vote as hordes of illegals get greater access to the voting booth every year.

Show's how far gone things are.

[Swordsmyth]

If it comes down to Trump vs. Sanders, I think Trump would pull it off.

What nobody seems willing to address is how close it would be.

In 1972 Nixon, an almost universally despised and distrusted president and individual, bogged down in Vietnam, with a failing economy, ran against McGovern who, at the time was viewed as a wild eyed leftist, but in today's world would be a "moderate" somewhere slightly to the right of Biden.

And it was an utter blowout in favor of Nixon. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_United_States_presidential_election)

Let's assume that Trump goes into November with a continued good economy and no new wars.

He'll have a fight on hands running against a no $#@!, full blown, USSR emulating, "government should own the means of production" communist.

Between the immigration invasion displacing and replacing the existing population and the Marxist takeover of almost any institution that sets the tone and direction of the nation: schools, media organs, think tanks, charitable foundations and the rest, I'm not surprised.

A Sanders/Warren ticket would win at least 15 states, handily and the popular vote as hordes of illegals get greater access to the voting booth every year.

Show's how far gone things are.
It's much closer than it should be.

If Trump hadn't won in 2016 we wouldn't have a chance at all.

[Warlord]

If it comes down to Trump vs. Sanders, I think Trump would pull it off.

What nobody seems willing to address is how close it would be.

If Bernie is smart he will run on an anti-war ticket. He will change his language and hide his true colors. If you look at his twitter he is the master of using emotional language to push his Marxist agenda i.e 'nobody should die like that on the floor of an ER, healthcare is a right'.

Here ya go. Anti-war message and the co-opting of Ron/Rand Paul

1215447080724058112
https://twitter.com/colbertlateshow/status/1215447080724058112

And that's just tonight, AF. He has many other tweets. He's going to ride this horse to victory.

Here's an emotional personal story he's pushing, a deported veteran.

1215373769247805441
https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1215373769247805441

Another personal story:

1213591262844071944
https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1213591262844071944

And all this is in the last day or so. Bernie will have a lot of tricks up his sleeve in a general election and he is raising money to compete on the airwaves. Not good.