Naturalized Foreigners Now Make Up 8% of Voting Population

[Swordsmyth]

https://bigleaguepolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Screen-Shot-2019-11-14-at-1.05.38-PM-1200x630.png

Since the passage of the 1965 Immigration Act (https://vdare.com/articles/peter-brimelow-on-electing-a-new-people-in-america-and-britain), the U.S. has witnessed a large wave of mass migration that is fundamentally altering the political and demographic makeup of the country.
Unlike previous migration waves, most immigrants coming to the United State hail from Third World countries (https://vdare.com/articles/i-am-become-death-the-shatterer-of-worlds).
Certain estimates from Breitbart point (https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/02/20/pew-research-1-in-10-u-s-voters-in-2020-election-will-be-foreign-born/) to 1 out of 10 eligible voters originating from foreign countries. This raises tough questions for the U.S. Immigration has historically come in waves, but has been met with subsequent pauses or reductions.


This was most apparent during the European mass migration wave of late 19th century up until the 1920s.
However, this migration inflow was largely reduced by the Immigration Act of 1924 (https://history.state.gov/milestones/1921-1936/immigration-act), which put an emphasis on national origins quotas.
There are valid safety and economic concerns (https://bigleaguepolitics.com/michelle-malkin-will-not-bow-down-to-the-political-establishment/) with the wave of migrants coming to America after the passage of the 1965 Immigration Act. Such trends have also applied to many developed countries (https://ammo.com/articles/no-go-zones-western-failed-states-guide) like the United Kingdom in Europe. No matter how we slice it, immigration is one of the largest civilizational issues that the West is currently facing.
Politically speaking, the migration patterns of the last 50 years are rather worrisome. Voting statistics (http://theredelephants.com/democrats-will-58-million-voters-republicans-2050/) demonstrate if current immigration policy stays the same, the Republican Party will be well on its way to electoral irrelevance based on the way average immigrant voters cast their ballots.
For that reason, a truly comprehensive immigration program entails curbing both illegal immigration and limiting legal immigration to highly-skilled workers, while also tightening up pathways to citizenship.
The Republican Party is the default party of the historic American nation and its interests. Present mass migration trends will ultimately dilute its influence and could potentially give Democrats a long-lasting hold over the electorate.

More at: https://bigleaguepolitics.com/demographic-shift-naturalized-foreigners-now-make-up-8-of-voting-population/

[Anti Federalist]

Shut up bigot, immigrants don't vote.

[Swordsmyth]

Shut up bigot, immigrants don't vote.

And it's evil of you to notice how they vote.

[juleswin]

Shut up bigot, immigrants don't vote.

Ofc naturalized citizens like me vote, you have known since 2011 when I joined this forum. I dunno why all of a sudden u are acting like this is news to you.

[CCTelander]

Shut up bigot, immigrants don't vote.


Nobody here ever claimed that naturalized citizens don't vote. That claim has only been made regarding undocumented immigrants.

[Swordsmyth]

Ofc naturalized citizens like me vote, you have known since 2011 when I joined this forum. I dunno why all of a sudden u are acting like this is news to you.
Some would have us believe that immigrants from anti-liberty cultures are no threat to liberty.
The excessive legal immigrants are bad enough without even dealing with the illegal voting by invaders.

[juleswin]

Some would have us believe that immigrants from anti-liberty cultures are no threat to liberty.
The excessive legal immigrants are bad enough without even dealing with the illegal voting by invaders.

I do not completely disagree with you but that is a discussion for another day. Legal naturalized immigrants do vote and they tend to vote for democrats and this wouldn't be the case if republicans had a good message to sell.

[Swordsmyth]

I do not completely disagree with you but that is a discussion for another day. Legal naturalized immigrants do vote and they tend to vote for democrats and this wouldn't be the case if republicans had a good message to sell.

LOL

You mean if they offered more free stuff?

You are proving the point that immigrants don't understand liberty and are a danger to it.

[Anti Federalist]

Nobody here ever claimed that naturalized citizens don't vote. That claim has only been made regarding undocumented immigrants.

They vote as well.

[Anti Federalist]

I do not completely disagree with you but that is a discussion for another day. Legal naturalized immigrants do vote and they tend to vote for democrats and this wouldn't be the case if republicans had a good message to sell.

Do tell...what message would make your average Ghanan or Somali migrant vote for me?

I'm all ears.

[juleswin]

Do tell...what message would make your average Ghanan or Somali migrant vote for me?

I'm all ears.

I have no idea what the average Ghanaian or Somali wants but what I know is that what the republicans are selling is not appealing to many people. I am conservative but listening to the way people like Trump talk about immigrants make me not even wanna vote for him. This would be 10x worse for someone who isn't a conservative.

[TheCount]

Citizens can vote?!

[Swordsmyth]

I have no idea what the average Ghanaian or Somali wants but what I know is that what the republicans are selling is not appealing to many people. I am conservative but listening to the way people like Trump talk about immigrants make me not even wanna vote for him. This would be 10x worse for someone who isn't a conservative.
That's a good reason to keep the immigrants out then.
We have a right and a need to limit the number of immigrants and if the immigrants will vote for communism because we want to do what we must to preserve liberty then the limits must be even tighter.

[Zippyjuan]

On the other hand, naturalized citizens are less likely to turn out and vote than born citizens- 61.2% vs 54.3%. That means that 94% of all votes cast were by "natural born" citizens. Hispanics overall have the lowest voter turnout rates (40% in 2018).

https://www.latinousa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Table1-1.png

[Anti Globalist]

One day it might be 50% of naturalized foreigners.

[Swordsmyth]

On the other hand, naturalized citizens are less likely to turn out and vote than born citizens- 61.2% vs 54.3%. That means that 94% of all votes cast were by "natural born" citizens. Hispanics overall have the lowest voter turnout rates (40% in 2018).

https://www.latinousa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Table1-1.png
If it weren't for that we would be communist already.

And China is trying to change that:


It’s official. The once deep-red Commonwealth of Virginia (https://www.theepochtimes.com/t-virginia) is now a blue state. As a result of the Nov. 5 election, Democrats now hold all three of the statewide constitutional offices, both U.S. Senate seats, the majority of its Congress members, and both chambers of the State House.
Laura Ingraham (https://www.mediamatters.org/laura-ingraham/laura-ingraham-blames-gop-losses-virginia-george-soros-demographic-changes-and) of Fox News says it’s because of “changing demographics.” That’s only partially true. Virginia went blue because a handful of well-organized pro-Chinese communists (https://www.theepochtimes.com/t-communists) made it happen.
The group in question, New Virginia Majority (NVM), has exploited Virginia’s changing population and “liberal bleed out” from the Washington area to flip not just Northern Virginia but also districts across the state. Based in Alexandria and Richmond, NVM has sent hundreds of paid workers and volunteers out across the commonwealth to register and send to the polls hundreds of thousands of new voters—all under the nose of the Virginia Republican Party.

The Democrats have flipped two state Senate seats, and now hold a 10-vote advantage in the Assembly. NVM endorsed and supported 23 Virginia candidates this cycle and won with 15 of them, including two state Senate races and nine Assembly victories.


None of this electoral success was down to luck or changing demographics alone.
NVM Co-Chair Tram Nguyen has already published an op-ed (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/06/opinion/virginia-election-democrats.html) in The New York Times saying, “Democrats could learn a lot from what happened in Virginia.” The message? “Democrats, do what we did in Virginia—everywhere.” By going after the minority vote with mass voter registration drives, you can flip almost any state.
According to Nguyen:
“The national Democratic Party spent millions in Virginia this year, but the state wasn’t always such a priority. From its position in the South to its prominent role in America’s legacy of oppression, Virginia was long considered reliably conservative—unbreakable. As recently as six years ago, Republicans controlled the office of the governor and the General Assembly.
“Local organizations like mine understood the political potential of Virginia when we got started 12 years ago. We are winning because we recognize the power of an electorate that includes and reflects the diversity of our state. We don’t talk to voters only when campaign season rolls around. We try to reach voters of all colors, women, low-income workers and young people where they are, which has made it possible for us to develop a robust base of support along Virginia’s so-called Urban Crescent, from Northern Virginia to Hampton Roads. Long before Election Day, we registered more than 300,000 voters, knocked on more than 2.5 million doors, and organized within communities of color to help win significant policy changes like Medicaid expansion, which covered nearly 400,000 people.”

Nguyen (who was part (https://keywiki.org/Tram_Nguyen_(Virginia)) of Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam’s transition team) also went on to explain the importance of the ex-convict vote.
“Virginia’s state constitution bars anyone with a felony conviction from voting until their rights have been restored by the governor. For more than nine years, we organized formerly incarcerated women and men to help them demand that their full civil rights be restored. The former governor, Terry McAuliffe, restored the voting rights of more than 173,000 Virginians during his term, more than any other governor in Virginia’s history. In 2016, of the nearly 20,000 men and women who registered to vote for the first time as a result of the restoration of their rights, a whopping 79 percent voted. They were a key voting bloc in Virginia, the only Southern state that Hillary Clinton won.”

NVM worked closely with McAuliffe (https://keywiki.org/Terry_McAuliffe) to win ex-felon voting rights. The organization actually gave the governor an award at its annual dinner for his sterling work.
And the path to success lies in organizing and energizing minority voters who already lean left, but normally vote at very low rates:
“Changes in the shape of the electorate and rising enthusiasm among voters can only go so far, without campaign architecture that channels those changes into tangible political outcomes. …
“Engaging meaningfully with voters of color means talking to tens of thousands of voters to make sure they have the information they need to cast their ballots even after receiving racist Republican campaign communications. … We didn’t need to persuade voters to embrace our worldview—they were already there on the issues. They just needed to be convinced that their vote mattered. To give one example of how this works in practical terms, in precincts in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, turnout this year increased by 24 percent over 2017. …
“States don’t become battlegrounds overnight. Democrats and national progressive organizations have the resources to take their case to the people and win, but they have to start early and organize relentlessly. When they lose, they have to stay in place and keep fighting for every political inch they can get. No place is unwinnable forever.”

All this would be serious enough if NVM members were merely well-meaning “liberal Democrats,” which unfortunately isn’t the case.
NVM is a front for Liberation Road, known until April this year as Freedom Road Socialist Organization (FRSO), the United States’ most influential Maoist organization.
Maoist Groups

NVM is led by longtime FRSO/Liberation Road cadre Jon Liss (https://keywiki.org/Jon_Liss) of Alexandria. Several FRSO cadres have served in NVM over the years, as have many activists from two NVM satellite groups, LeftRoots and the Virginia Student Power Network.
FRSO/Liberation Road comes out of the militantly pro-China (https://www.theepochtimes.com/t-china) American Maoist student movement of the 1970s. While it’s more discreet about its Chinese loyalties these days, several of its leading supporters maintain close ties to the People’s Republic.
Fred Engst (https://keywiki.org/Fred_Engst) is a longtime FRSO supporter. Born to U.S. communist parents and raised in China, Engst was educated in the United States, where he became immersed in Maoist politics. He returned to China in 2007 and is now teaching at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.
Alex Tom (https://keywiki.org/Alex_Tom), a leader of LeftRoots and the pro-Beijing San Francisco-based Chinese Progressive Association, in 2012 formed the China Education and Exposure Program to “build a deeper analysis of China for US progressives and leftists and to build relationships with the grassroots movement in China,” according to his 2013 LeftForum speaker’s bio (https://web.archive.org/web/20130803092832/http://www.leftforum.org/participant/speaker-alex-tom-0).
John Marienthal, (https://keywiki.org/John_Marienthal) a San Jose-based FRSO member, has been a leader of the pro-Beijing U.S.–China Peoples Friendship Association for more than 40 years and has taught in several Chinese educational establishments since the 1980s.
Steve McClure (https://keywiki.org/Steve_McClure) is a former Washington resident who, in the 1970s, was active in the pro-Mao Revolutionary Student Brigade. He has close ties to FRSO and NVM. Since 2010, he has worked with the Geography Department of Wuhan University in China, and he is a research associate with the State Key Laboratory of Engineering Information in Surveying, Mapping, and Remote Sensing at the university.
McClure has used his skills in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to supply highly targeted voter identification information to NVM.
As far back as 2005, McClure was using GIS technology to identify low-income voters for Liss’s Tenant Workers Support Committee. McClure “plotted lower-income, high-rental housing areas to get a picture of where there was affordable housing in Northern Virginia,” according to the Mason Gazette (https://web.archive.org/web/20051205005844/http://gazette.gmu.edu/articles/7525/). This information probably proved very useful when Liss established NVM two years later.
According to an Aug. 25, 2011, post on McClure’s blog (http://dcsteveinwuhan.over-blog.com/article-action-research-mapping-and-civic-engagement-in-virginia-82403603.html):
“I have been recently working with New Virginia Majority to make a series of maps to inform planning for precinct walks in Virginia State house districts. … The core data are lists of individual households by pan-ethnic census categories. … The results are subjective but do suggest … the ways that actual communities conform or diverge from the discrete territorial units which define an electoral terrain in a democracy.”

All this wasn’t theoretical. It was designed to help NVM flip districts across the state by micro-targeting potential Democratic voters in low-income and minority communities. In another post (http://dcsteveinwuhan.over-blog.com/pages/Actionable-intelligence-and-prince-william-county-5665344.html), he wrote:
“In the general elections of 2008, Virginia voted Democratic for the first time since 1964 with Obama carrying the state. Demographic shifts and increased voter participation rather than a shift in political allegiances account for this outcome. …
“Focusing on Prince William County, Virginia, I applied spatial interpolation techniques in a GIS to translate the 2008 election returns from the geography of precincts to year 2000 zoning classification areas for further quantitative analysis. The goal was to produce actionable intelligence for working class organizations building popular power at the base. …
“The results are presented as maps and diagrams which might illuminate challenges and opportunities for organizations engaging with electoral efforts.”

McClure is still actively engaged in giving advice to his U.S. comrades on winning elections for the Democrats.
An article co-written by McClure and Bob Wing, “The Importance of the Fight for the South—and Why It Can and Must Be Won (http://archive.organizingupgrade.com/index.php/strategylabs/2016-elections/item/1063-the-importance-of-the-fight-for-the-south-and-why-it-can-and-must-be-won-by-bob-wing-and-stephen-c-mcclure),” appeared on the Liberation Road-linked website Organizing Upgrade on Sept. 4, 2017. It states:
“The far right, racism, militarism, inequality, and poverty are all centered in the South. The majority of African Americans, the main protagonist of progressive politics in this country, live in the South. And the South has more electoral votes, battleground state votes, population, and congresspersons than any other region.
“The South is changing rapidly, giving rise to more progressive demographic groups—especially Black and Latino migrations, LGBTQs and urbanites—and a growing Democratic vote. These trends can only be maximized if the importance of the South is understood as a strategic necessity and the chance to win state by state, is acknowledged and acted upon.
“Hard as the fight is and will be, downplaying the Southern struggle is a losing political strategy and forfeits the moral high ground on the biggest issues facing the country.”

McClure and Wing (https://keywiki.org/Bob_Wing) (another “former” Maoist associated with FRSO) argue that to destroy the Republican Party in the South, black communities must be targeted and mobilized to vote:
“(1) A critical mass of Southern states can and must be won if we are to block or defeat the right in presidential elections. Three of the five or so critical battleground states are in the South: Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. Southern blue and battleground states plus Washington D.C. hold 38 percent of the electoral votes needed to win.
“(2) Winning an anti-rightwing congressional majority depends on winning in the South, as the South has a bigger congressional delegation than any other region and Southern congresspersons also hold key leadership posts within the Republican Party’s congressional hierarchies.
“(3) There are tremendous opportunities to build progressive political power and governance at the local level in the South as 105 counties have a Black majority. …
“While some might dismiss the South, focusing strategically on the Northeast and Pacific Coast as central to a progressive program and the Midwest as the main political battleground, the South’s dynamic growth, historical legacy of Black struggle and powerful political weight make it a critical battlefield.
“The nuance is that the South cannot be won as a bloc, but only state by state and county by county. In fact, winning the South in large part means understanding that it is not a monolithic entity and winning it piece by piece: i.e. politically deconstructing the South.”

President Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 shocked the left and, according to McClure and Wing, has made their goal of flipping the South even more urgent:
“This essay was prepared in March 2015, prior to the 2016 election season that eventually resulted in Donald Trump’s victory. However, the far rightwing’s capture of the presidency makes this essay’s main arguments even more important. …
“The South is the key center of the far right and the Republican Party; neither can be defeated without battling for the South.”

Liberation Road has a large presence in Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina (Durham for All), and Florida (the New Florida Majority). Now that Virginia is safely in the Democrat column, look to see an upsurge of Maoist electoral activity in North Carolina and Florida to turn those states blue in 2020; Tennessee and Georgia will be next. Then, Texas.
Chinese ‘Collusion’?

Trump has been tougher on Beijing than has any other president in living memory. It’s no secret that China doesn’t like Trump and would love to see him defeated in 2020.
Rather than risk war, or suffer huge economic setbacks, wouldn’t it be much cheaper and easier to use China’s American assets, such as Liberation Road, to ensure Trump’s defeat by “democratic” means?
It’s inconceivable that the Chinese government didn’t know what McClure was up to. After all, they presumably pay his salary or living costs while he is in China.
It’s clear that Liberation Road is tied to China. It’s also clear that their front-group NVM is heavily involved in U.S. electoral politics and played a decisive role in turning Virginia blue. It’s also obvious that Liberation Road’s goal is to destroy President Trump and the Republican Party to pave the way for a socialist America.
Is there Chinese “collusion” here? Do we need investigations and executive action against these subversive groups before they’re able to fully realize their goals? With less than a year until the 2020 election, there’s not much time left to do so.

More at: https://www.theepochtimes.com/virginia-goes-blue-pro-china-communists-claim-credit_3140463.html

[Zippyjuan]

One day it might be 50% of naturalized foreigners.

We will have to let in another 300 million citizens if that is your goal. Naturalized citizens were only about six percent of those who actually voted the last election.

[Anti Federalist]

We will have to let in another 300 million citizens if that is your goal. Naturalized citizens were only about six percent of those who actually voted the last election.

The people pushing this would be very happy with that, and more.

[Anti Federalist]

I have no idea what the average Ghanaian or Somali wants but what I know is that what the republicans are selling is not appealing to many people. I am conservative but listening to the way people like Trump talk about immigrants make me not even wanna vote for him. This would be 10x worse for someone who isn't a conservative.

So you're just blowing smoke out yer ass then...I'm supposed to kiss the asses of the wretched refuse to get them to vote for me, but nobody can tell me what would convince them to vote for me, other than the promise of free shit from the guberment.

[Swordsmyth]

So you're just blowing smoke out yer ass then...I'm supposed to kiss the asses of the wretched refuse to get them to vote for me, but nobody can tell me what would convince them to vote for me, other than the promise of free $#@! from the guberment.
You are supposed to invite them and all their relatives to come in unlimited numbers and gamble that that will please them enough to vote for liberty. (until they decide to ask "what have you done for me lately" and start voting for free stuff)

[Swordsmyth]

The people pushing this would be very happy with that, and more.

Notice that he didn't respond to my post about the Chinese being behind a campaign to increase the voting rate among communist immigrants.

[Zippyjuan]

Notice that he didn't respond to my post about the Chinese being behind a campaign to increase the voting rate among communist immigrants.

Fake news. Tram Nguyen isn't Chinese. Do you think that people who have paid the price for their crimes should be denied all the rights of other citizens?

Is Rand Paul a Chinese sympathizer?

https://www.cnn.com/2014/02/19/politics/rand-paul-felon-voting/index.html


Rand Paul fights for felon voting rights

Tayna Fogle sat just behind Sen. Rand Paul, nodding her head and listening as he pressed the case with Kentucky state senators to restore felon voting rights.

"Kids do make mistakes. White kids make mistakes. Black kids make mistakes. Brown kids make mistakes," Paul told the Kentucky state Senate committee considering a constitutional amendment to restore the voting rights of some felons on Wednesday. "But when you look at the prison population, three out of the four people in prison are black or brown."

Fogle whispered: "Good for you. I'm glad someone is speaking up."

She felt as if he was narrating her life.

In 1991, the former University of Kentucky basketball team captain received a 10-year sentence for crack cocaine possession. Since her release, she has been unable to vote.

"I remember when my mom showed me how to vote for the very first time. I remember watching the movies of my ancestors getting mauled by dogs and water hoses," Fogle said, her voice cracking a bit. "It changed my life completely. I was an embarrassment to my family. My community."

"I'm not making any excuses for my behavior. Should I have gotten a 10-year sentence? Yes, I should have. Have I served my time? Yes, I have."




Efforts like Paul's illustrate the delicate dance the GOP must undertake if it is to appeal to minority voters in a way that is sincere, said Andra Gillespie, an associate professor of political science at Emory University.

"If the policies are wrong and aren't framed in a way that is appealing to minorities they are going to be a hard sell to minorities," she said.
Paul may have just struck the right chord.

During his lunch last week with Holder, Paul said he talked about their shared concerns about laws that disenfranchise black men, including mandatory minimum sentences for nonviolent crimes.

Paul's also crafting a federal measure that would restore voting rights for felons who committed nonviolent crimes.

"We have to convince people we do care," Paul said during a phone interview of the GOP's outreach to minorities. "We do care about what is going on in areas of long-term poverty and long-term crime."

Currently, 11 states restrict or completely deny voting rights to prisoners even after they've completed sentences, probation and parole. In Florida, for example, roughly 10% of the population is banned from voting as a result of these laws.

"There's a racial outcome in who's incarcerated in our country," Paul told the state senators. "Not only is the incarceration unfair but they get out and their voting rights are impaired."

As for Fogle, who got a chance to meet Paul and take a picture with him, she points out that her son registered as a Republican by accident when he voted for the first time. She's encouraged him to keep the party affiliation.

"I told him it didn't matter," she said. "As long as he voted."

More at link.

[Swordsmyth]

Fake news. Tram Nguyen isn't Chinese.
People can read the article to see the Chinese connection for themselves.


Do you think that people who have paid the price for their crimes should be denied all the rights of other citizens?
Part of the price for sufficiently bad crimes should be a permanent loss of any say in the government of society.


Is Rand Paul a Chinese sympathizer?

https://www.cnn.com/2014/02/19/politics/rand-paul-felon-voting/index.html



More at link.
Rand has been mislead and tricked into supporting a policy that contributes to the destruction of liberty.



And you are trying to distract from the point that there is an effort to tilt the balance of politics in favor of the communists by increasing the voting rate of communist immigrants and that it is working.
If we didn't let so many communist in to the country it wouldn't work.

[Anti Federalist]

Do you think that people who have paid the price for their crimes should be denied all the rights of other citizens?

15th 17th 19th and 24th Amendments notwithstanding, I do not regard voting as a "right".

I have no problem with Second Amendment rights being restored.

[Zippyjuan]

So Rand is a RHINO communist since he is not "pure". Everybody is a communist. At least that is what the Guide Book says you should call them. That only works in pre- end of the Cold War and Russia to call people Communist.

[Swordsmyth]

So Rand is a RHINO communist since he is not "pure". Everybody is a communist. At least that is what the Guide Book says you should call them. That only works in pre- end of the Cold War and Russia to call people Communist.
You are only making a fool of yourself.

[phill4paul]

We will have to let in another 300 million citizens if that is your goal. Naturalized citizens were only about six percent of those who actually voted the last election.

More than enough. Ever heard of the Temperance movement?

[Zippyjuan]

You are only making a fool of yourself.

I am not the one calling everyone "communist".

[Zippyjuan]

More than enough. Ever heard of the Temperance movement?

That was passed with only six percent of the vote?

[TheTexan]

Send them back :cool:

[Swordsmyth]

I am not the one calling everyone "communist".
I don't call everyone a communist.
And aside from claiming I do you make a fool of yourself by denying that those who are communists are communists.

[Swordsmyth]

Send them back :cool:
It will come to that.

[phill4paul]

That was passed with only six percent of the vote?

Absolutely. History much? Google Wayne Wheeler. By targeting politicians, of either party, that were in a precarious place, that got there legislation moved forward. Which also happened to be the ushering in of the income tax. See how much just a little difference makes?

Tell me one politician today that would not like to add 6% to their vote totals. In most races that is a win or lose proposition.

[Zippyjuan]

Absolutely. History much? Google Wayne Wheeler. By targeting politicians, of either party, that were in a precarious place, that got there legislation moved forward. Which also happened to be the ushering in of the income tax. See how much just a little difference makes?

Tell me one politician today that would not like to add 6% to their vote totals. In most races that is a win or lose proposition.

Assuming they all vote the same way. They don't.