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Pauls' Revere
08-24-2019, 06:01 PM
his page was created in response to a question I brought up when discussing the Supreme Court with a friend. We were commiserating over our dislike for a particular justice and I wondered, "How much longer will he be on the court?" Knowing that justices are appointed for life, I figured we were stuck with him until he keeled over. I looked up his birthdate and punched it into the Social Security Administration Life Expectancy Calculator and got my answer. Granted, it's a very rough approximation, and most people will retire before they actually are knocking on death's door, but it gave me a bit of an idea of how much longer he would be hanging around SCOTUS.

I then figured, there must be other people like me, who want to know how long a particular justice will be sitting on the bench (statistically speaking).

I give you, the SCOTUS Deathwatch!

All sitting justices are listed here. Each justices' birthdate is used to determine their actuarial life expectancy using the SSA caculator. Now if a particular SCOTUS decision rubs you the wrong way, and you want to know when the court may change its leaning, you have one handy web page that will give you an idea when a justice's time is up!

http://scotusdeathwatch.com/


and now I give you DethKlock:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W35dyPTh6o

eleganz
08-24-2019, 06:56 PM
They say RBG's is 2024 but the average female life expectancy in the US is 82. She is 83 now.

euphemia
08-24-2019, 06:58 PM
I think this is tacky.

Swordsmyth
08-24-2019, 08:55 PM
They say RBG's is 2024 but the average female life expectancy in the US is 82. She is 83 now.
From last year:


Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Age: 85 (5 years past average retirement)

Tenure: 24 years (3 years less than average)

Predicted departure: Last year

Born in 1933, Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is now 85 years old - four years than older Kennedy, and five years past the average retirement age.


She took her seat on the Supreme Court in August 1993 after a nomination from Bill Clinton, and is three years shorter than the average tenure.
But Ginsburg told PBS in January (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/justice-ginsburg-nearing-85-signals-she-wont-retire-soon) that she would adopt the plan of former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens, who retired at the age of 90.
She further suggested that would be sticking to these plans and that she would not retire before the end of Trump's term as president by hiring four full-time law clerks (https://abovethelaw.com/2018/01/supreme-court-clerk-hiring-watch-new-year-new-hires-2/) through to 2020 - a move that is not typical for justices who plan on stepping down.
Ginsburg, who has become something of a liberal icon, said in February: (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/courts/ruth-bader-ginsburg-85-and-no-signs-shell-retire-from-supreme-court) "As long as I can do the job full steam, I will be here."


Stephen Breyer

Age: 79 (1 year before average retirement)

Tenure: 23 years (4 years less than average)

Predicted departure: 2021

At 79, Breyer has not made any suggestion that he will retire soon. He is a year younger than the average retirement age, and his tenure is currently four years shorter than the average.


Breyer has been a Supreme Court Justice since August 1994, following a nomination from President Bill Clinton.
As a liberal justice, Breyer may want to continue in office to prevent a conservative pick gaining his seat.
Clarence Thomas

Age: 70 (10 years before average retirement)

Tenure: 26 years (1 year less than average)

Predicted departure: 2024

Highly conservative Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas is 70, having served on the court since October 1991 after a nomination from George Bush. He is 10 years younger than the average retirement age, but he started relatively young, so his tenure is now just one year shorter than the average.
When rumors that a Supreme Court justice was to retire emerged, some wondered if Thomas would go instead of Kennedy (http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/06/supreme-court-retirements-kennedy-or-thomas-could-drop-bomb.html).
Thomas made no public comment about this. A 2016 report that said he would retire was rejected by his wife, Ginni, on Facebook (http://illinoisreview.typepad.com/illinoisreview/2016/06/about-the-rumor-that-clarence-thomas-is-retiring-.html). She wrote: "IT. IS. BOGUS!"


Samuel Alito

Age: 68 (12 years before average retirement)

Tenure: 12 years (15 years less than average)

Predicted departure: 2032

Alito has been in his seat since January 2006, following a nomination from President George W Bush. At 68, he has not made any public comments that suggest he may retire soon, and he is 12 years younger than the average retirement age, with another 15 years to go before his tenure reaches the average length.


A consistent conservative voter, he laid out a plan for the Supreme Court in 2016 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-alito-idUSKBN13C2E7) if it won a conservative majority after Trump took office. He may well want to see this agenda through now that Trump has added more conservative justices to the court.
Sonia Sotomayor

Age: 64 (16 years before average retirement)

Tenure: 8 years (19 years less than average)

Predicted departure: 2036

At 64, Sotomayor has only served on the court since August 2009, after a nomination from President Barack Obama. She is 16 years younger than the average retirement age, and her tenure is currently 19 years behind the average length.
But Trump has reportedly said he believes he will be able to replace Sotomayor, citing her health. Trump has talked about Sotomayor's Type 1 diabetes, sources told to news website Axios (https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-privately-predicts-he-will-appoint-four-justices-1513306203-6274d9b0-1824-45ee-8556-fade9bdb2fd8.html), saying: "Her health, no good. Diabetes."
Paramedics were called to Sotomayor's house in January, but she went back to work that day following treatment for low blood sugar. She was not hospitalised, Politico reported. (https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/19/sonia-sotomayor-health-scare-349971)
Sotomayor previously described herself as "super vigilant" about her condition. (http://www.diabetesforecast.org/2013/jul/sonia-sotomayor-her-life-with-diabetes.html)

As with the other liberal judges, she may well want to keep her seat for the near future to prevent it going to a conservative judge.


John Roberts

Age: 63 (17 years before average retirement)

Tenure: 12 years (15 years less than average)

Predicted departure: 2034

At 63, Chief Justice John Roberts is one of the younger members of the court. He only took his seat in 2005, after he was nominated by George W Bush.
Roberts is likely to become the court's swing vote following Kennedy's retirement, as Trump is likely to pick someone more conservative than him, leaving Roberts in an ideological middle between the more conservative and liberal members of the court.
There is no sign Roberts will step down anytime soon.
Elena Kagan

Age: 58 (22 years before average retirement)

Tenure: 7 years (20 years less than average)

Predicted departure: 2039

Age 58, Kagan is a a liberal judge nominated by President Barak Obama and assumed the role in August 2010. She is 22 years younger than the average retirement age and has another 20 years to go before her tenure reaches the average length.


She was outspoken over the court's decision to uphold Trump's travel ban (http://www.businessinsider.com/supreme-court-upholds-trump-travel-ban-2018-6), accusing conservative colleagues of using the First Amendment as "a sword" to influence politics and the economy.
She called some of her colleagues (https://www.vox.com/2018/6/27/17510338/supreme-court-kagan-dissent-janus) "black-robed rulers overriding citizens' choices," and it is unlikely that she will look to offer her seat to another conservative voice nominated by Trump.
Neil Gorsuch

Age: 50 (30 years before average retirement)

Tenure: 1 year (26 years less than average)

Predicted departure: 2046

Gorsuch only took his seat in April last year. He was nominated by Trump, and, at 50, is the youngest on the court. He has 30 years before he reaches the average retirement age, and another 26 years before he reaches the average tenure length.
The Washington Post reported that Trump talked about rescinding his nomination (https://www.washingtonpost.com/), and was worried that Gorsuch would not be loyal enough. Trump has disputed these claims. Gorsuch has voted against Trump's administration previously, including deporting immigrants who commit crimes in the US (https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/17/immigration-ruling-gorsuch-528749).
Despite this, the young, conservative judge is likely to sit on the court and shape laws for decades to come.

More at: http://www.businessinsider.com/supre...-tenure-2018-6 (http://www.businessinsider.com/supreme-court-when-ginsberg-other-justices-could-quit-based-on-age-tenure-2018-6)

Swordsmyth
08-24-2019, 10:30 PM
A comment from another site:


RBG has probably had a recurrence of her earlier pancreatic cancer. She is reported to have had SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) over three weeks. That procedure, schedule and dose is within the current NCCN recommendations for recurrent pancreas cancer. It is intended to buy time, relieve obstruction of the bile ducts (she had a stent placed to help this also), relieve pain (classic pancreas symptom) and possibly control bleeding. The prognosis, in a word, is poor. Wild assed guess is 3-4 months survival at best.

Anti Globalist
08-25-2019, 07:41 AM
RBG is the one that I want gone the most. Looking like she doesn't have much time left.

eleganz
08-25-2019, 04:29 PM
RBG is the one that I want gone the most. Looking like she doesn't have much time left.

There are greater chances of her making it to Nov. 2020, than not.

Sometimes when you're terminal, having something to be alive for helps to extend your time. And she knows how valuable her seat is to conservatism for the next generation.

Swordsmyth
08-25-2019, 08:37 PM
There are greater chances of her making it to Nov. 2020, than not.

Sometimes when you're terminal, having something to be alive for helps to extend your time. And she knows how valuable her seat is to conservatism for the next generation.

If she really is still alive I think she will die in early or mid 2020 at the latest, her vacancy will be very valuable to Trump's re-election and the Republican Senate candidates.

Swordsmyth
08-25-2019, 09:11 PM
It seems most news is missing a key part of the Supreme Court press release on the condition of Justice Ginsburg.






As part of her pancreatic cancer treatment a bile stent was placed.
From the press release today on Justice Ginsburg’s health.













https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/wp-content/uploads/ginsburg-press-release.jpg

This is important because a biliary stent is only installed (https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/about-cancer/bile-duct-cancer/advanced/stents) if a tumor was large enough to cause blockage of the bile duct from the liver to the intestine.
It is typically performed (https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/about-cancer/bile-duct-cancer/advanced/stents) in cases where the patient has cancer on the duct itself and often predicates liver cancer.
Again the stent is typically only used in advanced cases (https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/bile-duct-cancer/treatment/) and often only surgery is done for early cases:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/wp-content/uploads/ginsburg-stent.jpeg
The are two types of stents often used, plastic and metal (https://www.mayoclinic.org/medical-professionals/digestive-diseases/news/plastic-vs-metal-stents-for-malignant-biliary-obstruction/mac-20430799). Plastic ones only last about 3 months before needed to be replaced, thus doctors tend to use plastic ones in patients they do not expect to live more than 3 months (since they are more comfortable and cheaper).


Stents are often used in patients who are inoperable (https://www.healio.com/gastroenterology/liver-biliary-disorders/news/print/healio-ghttps://www.healio.com/gastroenterology/liver-biliary-disorders/news/print/healio-gastroenterology/%7Bc8066bf3-af1e-46c5-b123-2b70c1bfabe9%7D/biliary-stents-pose-relative-risks-benefits-to-patientsastroenterology/%7Bc8066bf3-af1e-46c5-b123-2b70c1bfabe9%7D/biliary-stents-pose-relative-risks-benefits-to-patients) to provide end of life care (https://www.cancer.org/cancer/bile-duct-cancer/treating/palliative-therapy.html).
Lastly, given Ginsburg’s tendency to imbibe alcohol in the daytime, one may suspect she has some form of dependency. In this case the prognosis is complicated (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/10817175/) greatly.


https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/08/analysis-justice-ginsburgs-bile-duct-stent-a-treatment-typically-used-in-advanced-cases-to-provide-end-of-life-care/