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Bradley in DC
07-03-2007, 09:05 AM
2008 Republican Presidential Primary (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_republican_presidential_primary)
Thompson 27% Giuliani 24% in Race for GOP Nomination
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
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After weeks of turmoil and change, the race for the Republican Presidential nomination has stabilized.
Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson remains on top in Rasmussen Reports national polling with 27% support. That’s unchanged from a week ago. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is three points behind at 24%.
Thompson has a 16-point advantage over Giuliani among conservatives while Giuliani holds an even larger edge among moderate voters. However, in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination, there are always more conservative voters than moderates.
A separate survey found that Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative of all GOP candidates. Giuliani remains the best liked candidate. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans now have a favorable opinion of America’s Mayor. Thompson’s numbers among the GOP faithful have been moving in the opposite direction. Sixty-four percent (64%) of GOP voters have a favorable opinion of the actor while just 12% have an unfavorable view.
This week’s national GOP poll also finds former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with a one-point edge over Arizona Senator John McCain for the fourth time in six weeks. Romney and McCain were tied during the other two weeks. Now, the numbers are 13% for Romney and 12% for McCain.
Romney is viewed favorably by 58% of Republican voters while 30% have a less flattering opinion. McCain is viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 40% of Republicans.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is atop the second tier at 3%. Six other candidates--Senator Sam Brownback, Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, former Governor Tommy Thompson, Congressman Duncan Hunter, and former Governor Jim Gilmore—split 4% of the vote. Eighteen percent (18%) are not sure.
The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 624 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted June 25-28, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Republicans, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Republican Primary.

[So, the top tier is having their problems, Huckabee is leading the second tier, then Brownback (who is not likely to last past Iowa) then Dr. Paul (who may have more cash on hand than McCain and the rest of the second tier) ahead of the rest. Gilmore will have an excuse to quit because of the surgery, Tommy says he's out if he doesn't win Ames and will have been in all 99 counties by then, Tancredo will need to decide soon if he's going to run for Congress or Prez. Duncan Hunter, well, no comment.]

LibertyEagle
07-03-2007, 09:09 AM
How are we going to break through?

beermotor
07-03-2007, 09:12 AM
18% are unsure.

That's how!

austinphish
07-03-2007, 09:14 AM
How are we going to break through?

By doing well in Iowa, then NH, then SC, then FL. The rest of the nation doesn't matter yet.

DjLoTi
07-03-2007, 09:19 AM
The rest of the nation doesn't matter yet.

Yeah, but what about in NY where people who are not registered republican right now will not be able to vote in the primaries? What if it's the same for California? Or NH? A majority of the states have closed primaries. This is going to prevent a lot of people from voting.

beermotor
07-03-2007, 09:29 AM
Just keep doing what we are doing. Things are going very well, the numbers are misleading.

Scribbler de Stebbing
07-03-2007, 09:41 AM
Same old polling techniques, last century's technology. The Iowa Straw Poll in Ames on August 11 is the poll that matters right now. This is what we need to focus on. Why do I feel so unfocused? I'd love to hear from the Iowa campaign what we can do.

FluffyUnbound
07-03-2007, 09:46 AM
Ignore Rasmussen. He's notorious for gaming the sample to obtain the outcome he wants.

FluffyUnbound
07-03-2007, 09:52 AM
Check out Rasmussen's job approval rating for Bush. It's almost 10 points higher than anyone else's.

Rasmussen is basically a Karl Rove push poll.

LibertyCzar
07-03-2007, 10:26 AM
Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson remains on top in Rasmussen Reports national polling with 27% support. That’s unchanged from a week ago. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is three points behind at 24%.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is atop the second tier at 3%. Six other candidates--Senator Sam Brownback, Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, former Governor Tommy Thompson, Congressman Duncan Hunter, and former Governor Jim Gilmore—split 4% of the vote. Eighteen percent (18%) are not sure.

The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 624 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted June 25-28, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Republicans, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Republican Primary.

The downfall of Giuliani begins. This is an important first step, after McCain's tumble. By the end of the next quarter, Huckabee might even be ahead of McCain.

And what a way to marginalize Ron Paul, by lumping him with five others, when he probably had the same percentage as the other five combined. Besides, I bet the margin of error reduced the real percentage from at least 5% to 4%, and that's being kind. Finally, Ron Paul has supporters beyond those named on any calling list.

But this is the quarter we move up in the polls. We'll be included in each one, and each time, the number will be higher. :D

jd603
07-03-2007, 11:34 AM
Who owns the companies that conducts these polls? I would put less emphasis on poll numbers right now.

Bradley in DC
07-03-2007, 01:09 PM
And what a way to marginalize Ron Paul, by lumping him with five others, when he probably had the same percentage as the other five combined. Besides, I bet the margin of error reduced the real percentage from at least 5% to 4%, and that's being kind. Finally, Ron Paul has supporters beyond those named on any calling list.

I'm pretty sure they were listed in the order of their support--this would be the standard way.

Bradley in DC
07-03-2007, 01:11 PM
As I've said, most of these polls before Labor Day basically reflect name ID. This fact influences the favorable/unfavorable as well:

Those with net negative ratings are Tommy Thompson (favorable 29%, unfavorable 42%), Tancredo (favorable 24%, unfavorable 42%), Hunter (favorable 20%, unfavorable 42%), Brownback (favorable 20%, unfavorable 47%), Paul (favorable 17%, unfavorable 52%), and Gilmore (favorable 13%, unfavorable 47%).