U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Total Dips to Lowest Level in a Decade

[Zippyjuan]

That is the total number estimated to be in the country. The asylum seekers are mostly not entering illegally but asking to be let in.

https://www.pewhispanic.org/2018/11/27/u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-total-dips-to-lowest-level-in-a-decade/


The number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. fell to its lowest level in more than a decade, according to new Pew Research Center estimates based on 2016 government data. The decline is due almost entirely to a sharp decrease in the number of Mexicans entering the country without authorization.

But the Mexican border remains a pathway for entry by growing numbers of unauthorized immigrants from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Because of them, Central America was the only birth region accounting for more U.S. unauthorized immigrants in 2016 than in 2007.

There were 10.7 million unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. in 2016, down from a peak of 12.2 million in 2007, according to the new estimates.

The total is the lowest since 2004. It is tied to a decline of 1.5 million people in the number of Mexican unauthorized immigrants from 2007 to 2016. Nevertheless, Mexico remains the country of origin for 5.4 million unauthorized immigrants, or roughly half of the U.S. total.

The declining overall number of unauthorized immigrants is due mainly to a very large drop in the number of new unauthorized immigrants, especially Mexicans, coming into the country. Consequently, today’s unauthorized immigrant population includes a smaller share of recent arrivals, especially from Mexico, than a decade earlier. Increasingly unauthorized immigrants are likely to be long-term U.S. residents: Two-thirds of adult unauthorized immigrants have lived in the country for more than 10 years.

As overall numbers declined, other related changes occurred in the unauthorized immigrant population. Between 2007 and 2016, the number of unauthorized immigrant workers fell, as did their share of the total U.S. workforce over the same period. So did the number of unauthorized immigrant men in the prime working ages of 18 to 44, but not women in that age group.

As their typical span of U.S. residence has grown, a rising share of unauthorized immigrant adults – 43% in 2016 compared with 32% in 2007 – live in households with U.S.-born children.

https://www.pewhispanic.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/11/PI_2018.11.27_unauthorized-immigrants_0-01.png

More at link.

[phill4paul]

That is the total number estimated to be in the country. The asylum seekers are mostly not entering illegally but asking to be let in.



More at link.

Link? What link?

[Zippyjuan]

Link? What link?

My apologies. I forgot to include it. Updated post to add it but here it is again for you: https://www.pewhispanic.org/2018/11/27/u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-total-dips-to-lowest-level-in-a-decade/

[phill4paul]

Ah, Pew. Globalists. Meh. 125k were apprehended just last month. Enough to displace and repopulate my whole county. An environmentalist once told me "delusion is not the solution." I tend to agree when it comes to open borders.

[Zippyjuan]

Ah, Pew. Globalists. Meh. 125k were apprehended just last month. Enough to displace and repopulate my whole county. An environmentalist once told me "delusion is not the solution." I tend to agree when it comes to open borders.

"Apprehended" means did not get in and are not in the US illegally. It includes those who turned themselves in to apply for asylum- these people are trying to gain legal access to the country.

[oyarde]

Ah, Pew. Globalists. Meh. 125k were apprehended just last month. Enough to displace and repopulate my whole county. An environmentalist once told me "delusion is not the solution." I tend to agree when it comes to open borders.

4,033 per day and not counting those that made it through . If you spread that across the 92 counties in my home state it would be 44 per county per day . If that is improvement then the bar was pretty low to start with .

[Swordsmyth]

LOL

Yale study finds illegal migrant numbers twice the accepted norm of 11 million (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?526703-Yale-study-finds-illegal-migrant-numbers-twice-the-accepted-norm-of-11-million)
And it has been getting worse since.

[Zippyjuan]

LOL

Yale study finds illegal migrant numbers twice the accepted norm of 11 million (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?526703-Yale-study-finds-illegal-migrant-numbers-twice-the-accepted-norm-of-11-million)
And it has been getting worse since.

While their total numbers were higher than Pew's, they also agreed with Pew that the totals have been declining since 2007.


While the findings are startling, they aren’t describing a new situation. “We wouldn’t want people to walk away from this research thinking that suddenly there’s a large influx happening now,” says Feinstein. “It’s really something that happened in the past and maybe was not properly counted or documented.”



“The trajectory is the same. We see the same patterns happening, but they’re just understating the actual number of people who have made it here,” says Fazel‐Zarandi. In his view, that suggests the survey method doesn’t effectively reach a group with incentives to stay undetected. “They are capturing part of this population, but not the whole population.”

https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/yale-study-finds-twice-as-many-undocumented-immigrants-as-previous-estimates

They also point out that if the actual number is higher than thought, the crime rates for illegal immigrants is lower due to the larger population given the same (already low) number of crimes. If the population is double, the crime rate is cut in half.

https://insights.som.yale.edu/sites/default/files/insights_inline_images/Estimates%20of%20undocumented%20immigrant%20popula tion_1.jpg

[Swordsmyth]

While their total numbers were higher than Pew's, they also concluded that the totals have been declining since 2007.
Even if it were true it wouldn't make 22 Million anything less than a crisis and since they lied to us about the total by so much for so long I see no reason to believe them that the number was dropping.

It certainly isn't dropping now, the globalists have been putting the pedal to the metal.

[Zippyjuan]

Even if it were true it wouldn't make 22 Million anything less than a crisis and since they lied to us about the total by so much for so long I see no reason to believe them that the number was dropping.

It certainly isn't dropping now, the globalists have been putting the pedal to the metal.

https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/study-undocumented-immigrant-population-roughly-double-current-estimate


He cautioned that the new figures don’t indicate a sudden influx of undocumented immigration. “It’s something that has happened in the past and maybe was not measured properly.”


“One of the most common arguments in favor of a tougher immigration policy is that undocumented immigrants are coming with a lot of criminality,” Kaplan notes. But paradoxically, the new findings may undercut that argument. He points out that previous studies, based on the widely accepted total of 11.3 million undocumented immigrants, found that the rate of serious crimes committed by these immigrants is lower than for U.S. citizens. The new findings suggest that the rate is even lower than previously believed: “You have the same number of crimes but now spread over twice as many people as was believed before, which right away means that the crime rate among undocumented immigrants is essentially half whatever was previously believed.”

[Swordsmyth]

https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/study-undocumented-immigrant-population-roughly-double-current-estimate
Their crime rates are suppressed as well but that was never the primary problem, their politics is.

There is certainly a massive increase in the invasion lately and the number already here is scandalous.

[Swordsmyth]

https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/study-undocumented-immigrant-population-roughly-double-current-estimate

I see you have followed the playbook and used a deceptively edited quote without a link to the original in your signature.

[Zippyjuan]

More cliches. And their politics doesn't matter since they can't vote. And those who do become citizens tend to have low voter turnout rates.

Need more government to stop them! Protect us Lord Trump!

[Swordsmyth]

More cliches.
Truths.



And their politics doesn't matter since they can't vote.
They do vote and they campaign and they have children who grow up and vote.


And those who do become citizens tend to have low voter turnout rates.

It's enough to tip the balance of power.

[Stratovarious]

That is the total number estimated to be in the country. The asylum seekers are mostly not entering illegally but asking to be let in.

https://www.pewhispanic.org/2018/11/27/u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-total-dips-to-lowest-level-in-a-decade/



More at link.



Unauthorized Shill posts climb to an all time high at the Ron Paul Forums,
replete with colorful charts.

[Stratovarious]

We need open borders in America , because..............

.....because, um..... well......it doesn't work anywhere in the world so , yea, that's it,
we need to do this......doh, doh, doh, doh, .......

[Zippyjuan]

We need open borders in America , because..............

.....because, um..... well......it doesn't work anywhere in the world so , yea, that's it,
we need to do this......doh, doh, doh, doh, .......

Who is calling for open borders? We don't have open borders.

[Zippyjuan]

I see you have followed the playbook and used a deceptively edited quote without a link to the original in your signature.

I did not include a link (but can if you like) but the quote is not edited.

[Swordsmyth]

I did not include a link (but can if you like) but the quote is not edited.
I was in error, it is out of context instead.

[Zippyjuan]

Link now included. Post was quoted in its entirety.

[Swordsmyth]

Link now included. Post was quoted in its entirety.

And out of context, you know very well that it implies something different than intended without the post it was a reply to.

[Stratovarious]

Who is calling for open borders? We don't have open borders.

You don't want open borders ?

You have a chart to back it up ?

[Stratovarious]

"Apprehended" means did not get in and are not in the US illegally. It includes those who turned themselves in to apply for asylum- these people are trying to gain legal access to the country.

The asylum seekers are not seeking asylum, they want freebies, prosperity,
capitalism, and the American way of life, you are disingenuous at best.

[Pauls' Revere]

these are meaningless.

"Rates have declined", so what. Give me a percentage by. This is ridiculous, "Has seen a drop since 2007" blah blah blah, by how much? Looks like its really maintained a plateau over the last 10 years.

According to the graph, since 1990 to 2019 there has been approximately a three times increase in the rate. I could (and more accurately say) the rate has maintained above 10.7 million since 2007.

a change of 2.5 million (decrease) since 2006 v/s an increase of 7.2 million since 1990 and that has been maintained since 2006.

[Zippyjuan]

these are meaningless.

"Rates have declined", so what. Give me a percentage by. This is ridiculous, "Has seen a drop since 2007" blah blah blah, by how much? Looks like its really maintained a plateau over the last 10 years.

According to the graph, since 1990 to 2019 there has been approximately a three times increase in the rate. I could (and more accurately say) the rate has maintained above 10.7 million since 2007.

a change of 2.5 million (decrease) since 2006 v/s an increase of 7.2 million since 1990 and that has been maintained since 2006.

Speaking of meaningless, what "rate" was maintained?


I could (and more accurately say) the rate has maintained above 10.7 million since 2007.

Is something growing at 10.7 million percent? That is a rate. And a huge one. If it (the population level) is maintained, the growth rate would be zero.


a three times increase in the rate.

A "three times increase in the rate" would mean things are growing three times faster than they were. For example, if something was increasing at ten percent a year, that would mean it would be growing at 30% a year now.

[Pauls' Revere]

Speaking of meaningless, what "rate" was maintained?



If it is maintained, the growth rate would be zero. Is something growing at 10.7 million percent? That is a rate. And a huge one.



A "three times increase in the rate" would mean things are growing three times faster than they were. For example, if something was increasing at ten percent a year, that would mean it would be growing at 30% a year now.

Look at the chart you posted.

[Zippyjuan]

Look at the chart you posted.

That isn't a rate- it is a population figure. Total estimated numbers of illegal immigrants in the country. It isn't the rate of growth. The rate of growth is the slope of the chart. A flat line is zero percent growth. If it is sloping downwards (like it is after 2007), the rate is negative and the population of illegal immigrants in the country is declining.

Just so people don't have to scroll up and down to see it:

https://insights.som.yale.edu/sites/default/files/insights_inline_images/Estimates%20of%20undocumented%20immigrant%20popula tion_1.jpg

The Pew chart is also millions of illegal immigrants (except for their third chart).

Now if you do want a rate, we can take the figures from the Pew chart (easier to read exact numbers.). 2007 illegal immigrant population estimate: 12.2 million. 2017 estimate: 10.7 million. Subtract. A decrease of 1.5 million people. So what is the percent? Divide that 1.5 by 12.2 (the change divided by the original figure) which gives us 0.123. To get a percent, multiply that by 100 and we get the illegal immigrant population decreasing by 12.3% between 2007 and 2017.

[Pauls' Revere]

3.5M = 1990
10.7M = 2016

I'm looking at the first graph (wish I was better at posting images). 10.7 - 3.5 = 7.2 million increase per year starting in 2006, (picking the low end) 2016.

[Zippyjuan]

3.5M = 1990
10.7M = 2016

I'm looking at the first graph (wish I was better at posting images). 10.7 - 3.5 = 7.2 million increase per year starting in 2006, (picking the low end) 2016.

Yes, it was growing until 2007. Then the recession hit and things reversed. But 7.2 million is not per year- that is the total increase. That is the total estimated illegal immigrant population- not how much it grew that year.

From 1995 to 2005 the population went from 5.7 to 11.1 million- an increase of 5.4 million or 540,000 a year on average (about nine percent a year).

Then from 2007 to 2017 it decreased- going from 12.2 million to 10.7 in ten years- a decrease of 1.5 million or a net exodus of those in the country of 150,000 a year more leaving the US than came here those years.

https://www.pewhispanic.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/11/PI_2018.11.27_unauthorized-immigrants_0-01.png

[Philhelm]

Lulz...Only 8 bazillion people are entering the U.S. illegally as opposed to the 10 bazillion of yesteryear.

[Zippyjuan]

Lulz...Only 8 bazillion people are entering the U.S. illegally as opposed to the 10 bazillion of yesteryear.

Actually since 2007, more left than came here.

[oyarde]

Lulz...Only 8 bazillion people are entering the U.S. illegally as opposed to the 10 bazillion of yesteryear.

Looks that way .

[Swordsmyth]

Actually since 2007, more left than came here.
If you trust leftist propaganda.

[timosman]

https://cdn.minds.com/fs/v1/thumbnail/983587036587130880

:rolleyes:

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

Need more government...


Except you are for more government. You actively campaign against Ron and Rand. You despise this site and will do anything to crush it out. You voted for Obama 2x. You voted Feinstein and Boxer, right?

[Philhelm]

Actually since 2007, more left than came here.

Taking for granted that is true, it would be like a sinking ship taking in 1 million gallons of water and for someone to argue that everything is fine after bailing out one bucket.

[Zippyjuan]

If you trust leftist propaganda.

The link you posted to the Yale study also shows a decline in the total number of illegal immigrants living in the country after 2007.

[Swordsmyth]

The link you posted to the Yale study also shows a decline in the total number of illegal immigrants living in the country after 2007.
And why should we trust them when they just had to admit that they had been telling us a number that was half of the truth for years?

[Zippyjuan]

And why should we trust them when they just had to admit that they had been telling us a number that was half of the truth for years?

I see. You posted it because it was fake. If it was fake, then their "twice the current estimate" of illegal immigrants must also be wrong. So you were lying. Or you were hoping nobody would actually read it and find it did not support your position.

[Swordsmyth]

I see. You posted it because it was fake. If it was fake, then their "twice the current estimate" of illegal immigrants must also be wrong. So you were lying. Or you were hoping nobody would actually read it and find it did not support your position.

I posted it because they were forced to admit some truth in spite of their bias and it demonstrates that they can't be trusted because they had to admit they had been lying.

[Pauls' Revere]

[QUOTE=Zippyjuan;6811217]Yes, it was growing until 2007. Then the recession hit and things reversed. But 7.2 million is not per year- that is the total increase. That is the total estimated illegal immigrant population- not how much it grew that year.

From 1995 to 2005 the population went from 5.7 to 11.1 million- an increase of 5.4 million or 540,000 a year on average (about nine percent a year).

Then from 2007 to 2017 it decreased- going from 12.2 million to 10.7 in ten years- a decrease of 1.5 million or a net exodus of those in the country of 150,000 a year more leaving the US than came here those years.

Correct, its not 7.2/yr, don't know how I missed that (my bad). Still its at 10.7 now as compared to 3.5 in 1990, thats an increase.

[RestorationOfLiberty]

I see. You posted it because it was fake. If it was fake, then their "twice the current estimate" of illegal immigrants must also be wrong. So you were lying. Or you were hoping nobody would actually read it and find it did not support your position.


When we throw nation wreakers like you out of America, just remember it was willfully spreading lies like this that got you thrown out. You were given every chance and choice to stop but like a true sperg you just refuse to leave well enough alone.

[Zippyjuan]

When we throw nation wreakers like you out of America, just remember it was willfully spreading lies like this that got you thrown out. You were given every chance and choice to stop but like a true sperg you just refuse to leave well enough alone.

You going to throw Ron Paul out of the country too? Remember you said anybody against the wall is for open borders and an enemy of the State. He is against the wall so is therefore for open borders.