New Politico poll shows Biden leading Sanders, beating Trump by 8 points

[Anti Federalist]

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/190424_biden-v-trump_sidebar.png



Joe Biden Is the Front-Runner — Over Democrats, and Donald Trump

https://morningconsult.com/2019/04/24/joe-biden-is-the-front-runner-over-democrats-and-donald-trump/

8-point lead over Trump a contrast to Obama’s standing at this point in 2012 cycle

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in the latest Morning Consult/Politico survey. (Scott Eisen/Getty Images)

BY ELI YOKLEY

April 24, 2019 at 12:56 pm ET

Biden bests the president in a hypothetical matchup, 42% to 34%.

Former VP’s net favorability has taken a 5-point hit since Morning Consult began tracking in late January.

As former Vice President Joe Biden prepares to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, he’s doing so as the front-runner, polling ahead of both fellow Democrats and President Donald Trump.

A new Morning Consult/Politico poll conducted April 19-21 among 1,992 registered voters found Biden leading the president by 8 percentage points in a hypothetical matchup, 42 percent to 34 percent. Biden has a significant edge over Trump among women (17 points), millennials (22 points) and independents (10 points).

The national, online survey has a 2-point margin of error.

Trump’s garnering roughly one-third of the vote in the early head-to-head test pales in comparison to that of the last incumbent president: At this point in the 2012 election cycle, then-President Barack Obama led Republican Mitt Romney by several points, polling consistently in the mid-to-high 40s, even after the 2010 tea party wave and backlash to the Affordable Care Act.

Along with his advantage over Trump, Biden has held a consistent lead in Morning Consult’s weekly tracking among likely Democratic primary voters. Three in 10 of those voters said the Delawarean was their top pick in the latest poll, followed by 24 percent who chose Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. (Biden’s 6-point advantage is similar to his average 7-point lead over the Democratic socialist in the 12 tracking polls.)

[PursuePeace]

"We have a top tier...."

[Swordsmyth]

LOL

[enhanced_deficit]

Drudge headline on falling MAGA approval links it to Mueller Report (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?533622-Drudge-headline-on-falling-MAGA-approval-links-it-to-Mueller-Report&)






SHOCK POLL: BIDEN OPENS 8-POINT LEAD ON TRUMP
(https://morningconsult.com/2019/04/24/joe-biden-is-the-front-runner-over-democrats-and-donald-trump/) https://www.drudgereport.com/i/logo9.gif

[RonZeplin]

The polling suggests that Joe Biden is 8 points less creepy than President Trump.

[TheTexan]

The only thing this poll tells me is that Gen Z should be ashamed of themselves.

15% not voting?? It's disgraceful.

[phill4paul]

So, does anyone else wonder if the Democrat party can nominate a rich white man without imploding?

[AngryCanadian]

So the poll is saying that they would prefer another 8 more years of Obama? but this with Joe the pedo?
45% women would prefer biden? dispute his pedo?

https://stream.org/wp-content/uploads/Joe-Biden-Young-Girl-Uncomfortable-Creepy-900.jpg
45% need a reality check.

[ATruepatriot]

So? When the leftest of the leftists are polled Trump is STILL in the running. From this group polled Trump shouldn't have even 10%. They should not be proud at all that he is still in the running and Biden is only 8 points ahead among this selective group, they should be worried that any at all in this group would vote for him. lol

[Cap]

Anyone is an improvement over the current occupier in the white house.

[donnay]

I do not think this will last long...once people from the Obama Administration start getting indicted, Biden will lose his steam. Especially the China visits he has to answer for making his son, Hunter very wealthy.

They are also banking on that people have no memories. Biden has done and said things, in his past, that will definitely catch up to him.

[specsaregood]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D49KxGqXkAAZV1d.jpg

[Anti Globalist]

These are the same polls that said Hillary was going to win in a landslide. Unfortunately for them, nobodies going to take those polls seriously.

[ATruepatriot]

These are the same polls that said Hillary was going to win in a landslide. Unfortunately for them, nobodies going to take those polls seriously.

Spot on... And of all people we should know how this polling works from Ron Paul's runs. :)

Morning Consult/Politico Poll Showing Biden +8 Over Trump Is Suspect, Just Look At Who Responded

The poll released yesterday by Morning Consult/Politico shows former Vice President Joe Biden with an 8 point lead over Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. To many that is shocking because the president’s approval rating and numbers have been quite high at this point in his presidency, even higher than Barack Obamas during the first 2 years.

However, if you dig below the surface of the polling data, the reason for this anomoly becomes starkly clear. The poll shows this big of a lead because most polled were Democrats.

See the data below taken from the Morning Consult polling data publicly released.

https://creativedestructionmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Screen-Shot-2019-04-25-at-8.04.53-AM.png

The poll shows widespread support among women for Biden; of course it does, because Dem women were the biggest group polled.

https://creativedestructionmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Screen-Shot-2019-04-25-at-8.18.02-AM.png

The poll shows an obvious overrepresentation of those who voted Democrat in the last election.

https://creativedestructionmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Screen-Shot-2019-04-25-at-8.19.27-AM.png

As the 2020 election season heats up, beware of polling that has an agenda.

https://creativedestructionmedia.com/news/politics/2019/04/25/morning-consult-politico-poll-showing-biden-8-over-trump-is-suspect-just-look-at-who-responded/

[oyarde]

All I see is that with Biden & Bernie in that just pushes the rest of the dem candidates out . So the americans get to decide if the want trump or a career politician who has never had a real job , old school graft dem like biden or a blatant communist like bernie . Current odds are 50/50 . A lot riding on this for the future . If Trump wins it sets up Pence next which would guarantee sane but status quo economic policy whilst if the commie dems when they would try to put legislation in place with enough " free " things to crash the entire system in short order.

[specsaregood]

So, does anyone else wonder if the Democrat party can nominate a rich white man without imploding?

Or it shows that those that make such a big deal about such things might be very vocal, but are a very small minority even within the Dem party.

[enhanced_deficit]

So zero mention of 'fakenews polls' in this thread so far.
Are we to assume polls are accurate now and MAGA supporters faith in polls has been restored after reporting of few recent polls showing MAGA's "50% approval".
Starting to wonder if Deep Stage might be playing 3D with both MAGA and Dem crowds.



So, does anyone else wonder if the Democrat party can nominate a rich white man without imploding?

They could be trying to emulate success of Trump (although he no longer identifies as a Democrat).

[ATruepatriot]

So zero mention of 'fakenews polls' in this thread so far.

Quite a comprehensive mention of "fake news polls" in #14...

[enhanced_deficit]

Quite a comprehensive mention of "fake news polls" in #14...

Ok I stand corrected.
Had very quickly scanned the page for word "fakenews" instead of reading all the content.

[ATruepatriot]

Ok I stand corrected.
Had very quickly scanned the page for word "fakenews" instead of reading all the content.

No problem :) You are right on point, it should be the very first suspicion. :) Of all communities Ron Paul supporters should absolutely know better after the hundreds of rigged polls we had to deal with. :)

[Superfluous Man]

So? When the leftest of the leftists are polled Trump is STILL in the running.

You say that as if the left would not naturally be inclined to support Trump.

[ATruepatriot]

You say that as if the left would not naturally be inclined to support Trump.

That is exactly what I am saying and stating as fact by example... lol

[Superfluous Man]

That is exactly what I am saying and stating as fact by example... lol

It's good that this poll helped correct that misconception.

[RJB]

It is way too early. Trump was the last candidate anyone expected. Same with Romney and McCain. We will get some weirdo no one was expecting by the time of the convention. Voters sway like willows before the hot air of the MSM.

[ATruepatriot]

It's good that this poll helped correct that misconception.

Once again the poll is a lie and manipulated. If a liberal claims they might vote for Trump they are outright deceptive liars.

[Superfluous Man]

If a liberal claims they might vote for Trump they are outright deceptive liars.

Trump is president right now partly because a whole bunch of liberals voted for him in 2016.

[ATruepatriot]

Trump is president right now partly because a whole bunch of liberals voted for him in 2016.

I don't think so... Independents who normally vote left switched right, and Libertarians who jumped off the "purism" ship. Both in fear of the very real communist agenda option. The left voted left, example the popular vote.

[Superfluous Man]

Spot on... And of all people we should know how this polling works from Ron Paul's runs. :)

Morning Consult/Politico Poll Showing Biden +8 Over Trump Is Suspect, Just Look At Who Responded

The poll released yesterday by Morning Consult/Politico shows former Vice President Joe Biden with an 8 point lead over Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. To many that is shocking because the president’s approval rating and numbers have been quite high at this point in his presidency, even higher than Barack Obamas during the first 2 years.

However, if you dig below the surface of the polling data, the reason for this anomoly becomes starkly clear. The poll shows this big of a lead because most polled were Democrats.

See the data below taken from the Morning Consult polling data publicly released.

https://creativedestructionmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Screen-Shot-2019-04-25-at-8.04.53-AM.png

The poll shows widespread support among women for Biden; of course it does, because Dem women were the biggest group polled.

https://creativedestructionmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Screen-Shot-2019-04-25-at-8.18.02-AM.png

The poll shows an obvious overrepresentation of those who voted Democrat in the last election.

https://creativedestructionmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Screen-Shot-2019-04-25-at-8.19.27-AM.png

As the 2020 election season heats up, beware of polling that has an agenda.

https://creativedestructionmedia.com/news/politics/2019/04/25/morning-consult-politico-poll-showing-biden-8-over-trump-is-suspect-just-look-at-who-responded/

You may be right about the poll stacking the deck with unrepresentative samplings of those groups. But it may not be as egregious as it looks.

A good poll should have a lot more registered Democrats than registered Republicans because nationwide, in states with party registration, 40% of voters are registered Democrats and only 29% are registered Republicans (https://www.axios.com/democrats-crush-republican-party-registration-2018-midterms-872f7ad2-7a3b-4f7c-97b0-8070448e2df4.html). And I suspect that among women, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by an even larger margin.

Likewise, having a polling sample with 36% who voted for Hillary in 2016 and 33% who voted for Trump in 2016 isn't that far off either. In the popular vote, Hillary beat Trump by 2%.

The poll says it has a margin of error of 2%, and that may well be the case. It seems to me that most of the time, polls are pretty accurate when allowance is made for the margin of error. There are some exceptions. But even then, they tend not to be as bad as those who never trust them seem to think.

The polls during Ron Paul's runs turned out not to be too far off, like it or not. And the polls that showed Hillary beating Trump turned out not to be too far off either. Some were worse than others. And it's the worst ones that people pick out to be examples of how bad polls are, neglecting to notice all the better ones.

[Superfluous Man]

I don't think so... Independents who normally vote left switched right

They may have voted for Trump over Hillary, but that could hardly be considered switching right.

[ATruepatriot]

They may have voted for Trump over Hillary, but that could hardly be considered switching right.

I absolutely agree. This election was quite unique in that aspect.

[ATruepatriot]

You may be right about the poll stacking the deck with unrepresentative samplings of those groups. But it may not be as egregious as it looks.

A good poll should have a lot more registered Democrats than registered Republicans because nationwide, in states with party registration, 40% of voters are registered Democrats and only 29% are registered Republicans (https://www.axios.com/democrats-crush-republican-party-registration-2018-midterms-872f7ad2-7a3b-4f7c-97b0-8070448e2df4.html). And I suspect that among women, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by an even larger margin.

Likewise, having a polling sample with 36% who voted for Hillary in 2016 and 33% who voted for Trump in 2016 isn't that far off either. In the popular vote, Hillary beat Trump by 2%.

The poll says it has a margin of error of 2%, and that may well be the case. It seems to me that most of the time, polls are pretty accurate when allowance is made for the margin of error. There are some exceptions. But even then, they tend not to be as bad as those who never trust them seem to think.

The polls during Ron Paul's runs turned out not to be too far off, like it or not. And the polls that showed Hillary beating Trump turned out not to be too far off either. Some were worse than others. And it's the worst ones that people pick out to be examples of how bad polls are, neglecting to notice all the better ones.

They didn't even include any males or conservatives in this poll, how could it even be close to representative of the election outcome? lol

As for accuracy with Ron's polls, they didn't even list his name in 8 out of 10 polls put up. We had to go slam them in mass and vote for "other" so they would take them down. lol

Fun days... :)

[nikcers]

Trump won because he campaigned on a better foreign policy. Trump probably would get every anti Obama voter if Biden was the nominee. The only better option would be if it was Obama himself.

[Superfluous Man]

They didn't even include any males or conservatives in this poll

Yes they did. Among those who classified themselves, there were 680 who identified as conservative, versus on 635 who identified as liberal, and 463 who identified as moderate.

There were 932 men and 1060 women. So the fact that women did outnumber men is noteworthy, I think. But again, this is not far off from reality, since significantly more women than men vote.

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/190452_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1.pdf

[Superfluous Man]

As for accuracy with Ron's polls, they didn't even list his name in 8 out of 10 polls put up. We had to go slam them in mass and vote for "other" so they would take them down.

If you're talking about online polls, then sure, those are totally useless. But that's not what this is.

[Anti Globalist]

It is way too early. Trump was the last candidate anyone expected. Same with Romney and McCain. We will get some weirdo no one was expecting by the time of the convention. Voters sway like willows before the hot air of the MSM.
If thats the case then I can totally see Buttigieg being that weirdo.

[nikcers]

If you're talking about online polls, then sure, those are totally useless. But that's not what this is.

How is this any different than the polls that said Clinton would win by 8 pt lead?

[ATruepatriot]

Trump won because he campaigned on a better foreign policy. Trump probably would get every anti Obama voter if Biden was the nominee. The only better option would be if it was Obama himself.

Know what I think... I think this nation was presented with a very clear and simple choice with all other issues completely aside, Turn communist or not turn communist. there was no gray area or wiggle room on this fact. And we are headed right back into the very same real choice again. Communism or not communism.

[nikcers]

Know what I think... I think this nation was presented with a very clear and simple choice with all other issues completely aside, Turn communist or not turn communist. there was no gray area or wiggle room on this fact. And we are headed right back into the very same real choice again. Communism or not communism.

Trump ran on a pretty anti Obama platform. You remember when he started it all with the birth certificate conspiracy theory?

[Dr.3D]

If thats the case then I can totally see Buttigieg being that weirdo.
Sort of like that surge of Santorum?

[Superfluous Man]

How is this any different than the polls that said Clinton would win by 8 pt lead?

Perhaps it's not different. But you can't just assume that this is a bad poll just because you've seen other bad polls. Most polls are pretty good. Most polls for the 2016 presidential election showed a slight edge in popular support for Hillary over Trump (nowhere near 8%) that was within the margin of error of the actual popular vote results. How is this one any different than all those?

[ATruepatriot]

Trump ran on a pretty anti Obama platform. You remember when he started it all with the birth certificate conspiracy theory?

I really don't think the issues had as much to do with it as reality did. They underestimated the intelligence of the voters, they were wiser that they thought and saw what would happen if Hillary was elected. This country dodged a huge bullet. I think they would have voted for anyone but Hillary because they knew straight up Hillary = Communism. She just plain scared the hell out of everyone with more than two brain cells to rub together.

[ATruepatriot]

Perhaps it's not different. But you can't just assume that this is a bad poll just because you've seen other bad polls. Most polls are pretty good. How is this one any different than all those?

The source and that they have purposely manipulated polls before. They already have a known MO and rap sheet already.

And no I'm not going to go chase it down for you. Everyone who has followed polls closely over the last ten years already knows this without a doubt.

[tfurrh]

Sort of like that surge of Santorum?

Russia interfered

[Superfluous Man]

Everyone who has followed polls closely over the last ten years already knows this without a doubt.

I think this is a misconception. Most who have followed polls closely over the last 10 years, and longer, have found them to be generally accurate.

If you think otherwise, then as I said before, it's probably a result of focusing on the minority of polls that turn out wrong, rather than the majority that prove to be accurate to within the margin of error.

[Schifference]

We need to wait for professional analysis from the great Frank Luntz before we will know with any kind of accuracy.

[eleganz]

Too early, these polls mean nothing.

[Anti Globalist]

So, does anyone else wonder if the Democrat party can nominate a rich white man without imploding?
https://scontent-ort2-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/58419371_661289667644476_35176224535871488_n.jpg?_ nc_cat=110&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-2.xx&oh=60cea7e7233ef9278389d25c0a18ae76&oe=5D7505E8

[AngryCanadian]

When it comes down to foreign policy
joe biden agenda for foreign policy.
-Regime change for Syria again dispute the fact that they already lost that chance.
-continue the bombing of Yemeni civilians to further support Saudis' gov.
-continue middle east conflicts.

Joe Biden will offer nothing new. Trump will win on the economy.
Joe the pedo biden will try to win based on the Russiagate nonsense.

[shakey1]

Polls... :rolleyes:

[kcchiefs6465]

I see Joe Biden is feeling his way around the competition. This poll is one of many sniff tests on his journey to hold hands and kiss babies.

[euphemia]

Don’t be taken in by polls. They are made up as a way to shape public opinion rather than report it.

[ATruepatriot]

Don’t be taken in by polls. They are made up as a way to shape public opinion rather than report it.

Absolutely. And it starts with the poll takers and whether they are honest or not. The numbers mean nothing if they were gathered nefariously.

[nikcers]

I really don't think the issues had as much to do with it as reality did. They underestimated the intelligence of the voters, they were wiser that they thought and saw what would happen if Hillary was elected. This country dodged a huge bullet. I think they would have voted for anyone but Hillary because they knew straight up Hillary = Communism. She just plain scared the hell out of everyone with more than two brain cells to rub together. Joe Biden seems to be running on the Gillete platform. I wonder if people understand he wants to be the political correctness police.

[Champ]

Don’t be taken in by polls. They are made up as a way to shape public opinion rather than report it.

This is exactly it. This Politico poll was released as an almost unofficial Biden campaign announcement companion piece to get the hype up and begin the news media 24/7 positive coverage of him to make him seem like he is top tier material. These tricks are becoming laughable at this point, we've had a heck of a lot of practice since 2007.

They will start the gap out bigger to begin the hype, and as elections draw closer the gap will tighten and/or become less exaggerated and more precise, so it will appear the pollsters were at least moderately accurate by the time election day rolls around. Like all data, it can be manipulated in any direction to benefit whichever party is desired.

Counting on the fools to nod their heads in agreement that Biden is what is needed for America right now, because look, Creepy Joe is polling amazingly high, he truly must be beloved by the people.

[ATruepatriot]

Joe Biden seems to be running on the Gillete platform. I wonder if people understand he wants to be the political correctness police.

I hope he is the candidate. He is his own worst enemy. O-Bro wouldn't even let him get near a microphone because every time he did he stuck his foot in his mouth and made a fool of himself. lol

Ever watch him try to deliver a lengthy speech? It is painful to watch... :)