Social Security shortfall: Trust fund to run dry in 2035

[Swordsmyth]

Social Security’s Opens a New Window. (https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/social-security-benefits) reserve funds are expected to be depleted in 2035, at which time the program will no longer be able to pay out benefits Opens a New Window. (https://www.foxbusiness.com/category/economic-indicators) in full.
That’s according to the annual Social Security and Medicare trustees report released on Monday, which said total costs of the program, which covers the old age and disability insurance programs, will exceed income in 2020 – for the first time since 1982. That’s two years later than projected last year, but means the program will have to dip into its reserves to cover benefits at that time.


By 2035 those reserves will be depleted, and 80 percent of benefits will be payable.
In 2018, the trustees forecast that 100 percent of benefits would be covered through 2034, meaning the trust fund gained an extra year before expected depletion. However, the trustees are still urging lawmakers to take action sooner than later.
“Both Social Security and Medicare face long-term financing shortfalls under currently scheduled benefits and financing,” the trustees wrote.
Taken separately, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will have enough reserves to pay full benefits through 2034. The Social Security disability fund, however, will not run out until 2052, about two decades later than what last year’s report projected. That change was attributed to a decline in disabled-worker applications and disability incidence rates.
The trustees combine the programs in the report to summarize the overall state of Social Security's finances.
Medicare’s hospital insurance trust fund is expected to run out of money in seven years, which remains the same as last year’s projections.
As a share of GDP, the annual cost of Social Security will increase to 5.9 percent by 2039 – up from 4.9 percent last year. Total Medicare costs will rise to 5.9 percent by 2038, up from 3.7 percent.

More at: https://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/social-security-trust-fund-to-run-dry

Time to means test and cut off new enrollments.

[Anti Globalist]

Yet you still have idiots out there who think the government can take care of us.

[106459]

That's pretty cool - it'll be a fitting 100 year anniversary. Doesn't surprise me that its failed within 4-5 generations of payouts.

I'm sure they'll get it right the next time, don't worry guys.

[Superfluous Man]

The Social Security trust fund is meaningless anyway. I think it's a way to pretend that we pay into SS and then get our own money back later to keep people thinking they're entitled to it.

[timosman]

Yet you still have idiots out there who think the government can take care of us.

If the government fails it won't be because of lack of effort. :tears:

[Stratovarious]

Social Security is 'pay in get back', its been terribly mismanaged but is
not socialism, welfare is socialism , free education is socialism Obamacare is
socialism.

[TheCount]

Non-issue. All we have to do is declare war on it.

[Swordsmyth]

Social Security is 'pay in get back', its been terribly mismanaged but is
not socialism, welfare is socialism , free education is socialism Obamacare is
socialism.
It was always a Ponzi scheme, the first beneficiary received far more than they put in.

It's time to end it.

[Stratovarious]

It was always a Ponzi scheme, the first beneficiary received far more than they put in.

It's time to end it.


That is the same fake argument that Shapiro uses, for this to be true would mean that in
2040 + - there are no more humans in America.

Why are you concerned with the first beneficiary or the first generation?

[Swordsmyth]

That is the same fake argument that Shapiro uses, for this to be true would mean that in
2040 + - there are no more humans in America.
All it takes to put the program into the red and drawing money from the general fund is a large enough economic downturn and/or a decrease in the population.
It will get there eventually anyway and it is very bad just to force people to save for retirement by giving money to the government anyway.


Why are you concerned with the first beneficiary or the first generation?
I'm not especially except that it show it always was a Ponzi scheme.

[Stratovarious]

I'm not especially except that it show it always was a Ponzi scheme.


That is a false premise, do you remember Ponzi?

[Stratovarious]

All it takes to put the program into the red and drawing money from the general fund is a large enough economic downturn and/or a decrease in the population.
It will get there eventually anyway and it is very bad just to force people to save for retirement by giving money to the government anyway.


I'm not especially except that it show it always was a Ponzi scheme.

As I have already stated , for this to be true (Ponzi) would literally mean that there are no humans
in America in say, 2040 or 2050, that would give you a 'Ponzi' scheme, otherwise, no not even close
to a Ponzi scheme.
That is just a cleaver meme that Shapiro and others have concocted , sounds legit , but its blsht.

[Swordsmyth]

That is a false premise, do you remember Ponzi?
Yes, how is it a false premise to say that a system that takes money from new enrollees to pay obligations to old enrollees and that does not limit payouts based on what is paid in is a Ponzi scheme?



In any case Social Security is forced savings and should be ended for that alone.

[Swordsmyth]

As I have already stated , for this to be true (Ponzi) would literally mean that there are no humans
in America in say, 2040 or 2050, that would give you a 'Ponzi' scheme, otherwise, no not even close
to a Ponzi scheme.
That is just a cleaver meme that Shapiro and others have concocted , sounds legit , but its blsht.
I do not understand your definition of a Ponzi scheme.

[Stratovarious]

Yes, how is it a false premise to say that a system that takes money from new enrollees to pay obligations to old enrollees and that does not limit payouts based on what is paid in is a Ponzi scheme?



In any case Social Security is forced savings and should be ended for that alone.


No, a Ponzi scheme guarantees there is no one left to contribute.


Forced income tax , property tax, road tax, taxes for welfare, ADA, etc, all taxes are forced and should be ended, so how does soc sec
square up 'worse' in your book than any other 'forced tax' whereby a payer gets out
some of what he put in, of course millions die before collecting one dime, so the idea that 'they' get
more than they put in is also false.....

[Stratovarious]

I do not understand your definition of a Ponzi scheme.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme


A pyramid party was also a classical ps back in the 80's , we all joined in and most lost their ass.

[aGameOfThrones]

https://media0.giphy.com/media/sEkNor7RMDdXq/source.gif

[Swordsmyth]

No, a Ponzi scheme guarantees there is no one left to contribute.

How so?


Forced income tax , property tax, road tax, taxes for welfare, ADA, etc, all taxes are forced and should be ended, so how does soc sec
square up 'worse' in your book than any other 'forced tax' whereby a payer gets out
some of what he put in, of course millions die before collecting one dime, so the idea that 'they' get
more than they put in is also false.....
Many taxes should be ended because people should not be taxed for illegitimate government functions or excessive uses of legitimate government functions.
Social Security is blatantly not a legitimate government function and is blatantly unconstitutional and therefor it is up near the top of the list of taxes that should be ended.

I do not support ending payouts to those who were forced into the system and were encouraged to become dependent on it but those who will survive without it and anyone who has time to adjust their retirement plans to survive without it should be cut off and the program should be allowed to end through the attrition of those who remain on it.

[Stratovarious]

If Congress had their Plush retirement taken away and were left with ss, you can bet
your butts social security would have always been perfectly managed and kept pure and un-diluted in its mission.

[Swordsmyth]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme


A pyramid party was also a classical ps back in the 80's , we all joined in and most lost their ass.

A Ponzi scheme (/ˈpɒnzi/ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA/English), Italian: [ˈpontsi] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA/Italian); also a Ponzi game)[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme#cite_note-1) is a form of fraud (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraud) that lures investors (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investor) and pays profits (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profit_(accounting)) to earlier investors with funds (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funding) from more recent investors.[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme#cite_note-2) The scheme leads victims to believe that profits are coming from product sales or other means, and they remain unaware that other investors are the source of funds. A Ponzi scheme can maintain the illusion of a sustainable business (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business) as long as new investors contribute new funds, and as long as most of the investors do not demand full repayment and still believe in the non-existent assets they are purported to own.
That is exactly what Social Security does.

[Swordsmyth]

If Congress had their Plush retirement taken away and were left with ss, you can bet
your butts social security would have always been perfectly managed and kept pure and un-diluted in its mission.
Congress should not get pensions and Social Security never should have existed.

[oyarde]

The Social Security trust fund is meaningless anyway. I think it's a way to pretend that we pay into SS and then get our own money back later to keep people thinking they're entitled to it.

True , if they were to just offer to give me back what I have pd in during the first 35 years I contributed now , just the first quarter million, lump sum with zero interest I would call it even . Otherwise I am forced to steal it all back and then some by tax avoidance for a few decades .

[Stratovarious]

How so?


Many taxes should be ended because people should not be taxed for illegitimate government functions or excessive uses of legitimate government functions.
Social Security is blatantly not a legitimate government function and is blatantly unconstitutional and therefor it is up near the top of the list of taxes that should be ended.

I do not support ending payouts to those who were forced into the system and were encouraged to become dependent on it but those who will survive without it and anyone who has time to adjust their retirement plans to survive without it should be cut off and the program should be allowed to end through the attrition of those who remain on it.
Review the Ponzi scheme and you will see, the pyramid party platform is similar,
look into exponents, in 3 months, you could be looking for other planets and solar systems
to contribute, it expands and collapses very quickly.

3 people bring in 9 people 9 bring in 81 ......etc etc, kiting is another similar scheme, it works fabulously
for awhile.

[oyarde]

Non-issue. All we have to do is declare war on it.

I think that just makes things cost even more with worse results .

[Swordsmyth]

Review the Ponzi scheme and you will see, the pyramid party platform is similar,
look into exponents, in 3 months, you could be looking for other planets and solar systems
to contribute, it expands and collapses very quickly.

3 people bring in 9 people 9 bring in 81 ......etc etc, kiting is another similar scheme, it works fabulously
for awhile.
If you don't promise as much in returns as private pyramids do because you can use force to make people contribute then you do not need as much growth and you can bet that the natural rate of increase in the population plus the rate of inflation will keep the scheme going, but if a large enough economic downturn occurs or if the population decreases it still falls apart like any other pyramid.

And it needs to end even if it somehow isn't a Ponzi scheme.

[pcosmar]

I do not understand The your definition of a Ponzi scheme.

fixed it for ya.

[Stratovarious]

If you don't promise as much in returns as private pyramids do because you can use force to make people contribute then you do not need as much growth and you can bet that the natural rate of increase in the population plus the rate of inflation will keep the scheme going, but if a large enough economic downturn occurs or if the population decreases it still falls apart like any other pyramid.

And it needs to end even if it somehow isn't a Ponzi scheme.

This thread should be about Welfare , not about social security.

If we had no social security as society is structured today, that would give you true socialism the
likes of which you can't possibly imagine, and / or we would be serving
Soylent Green in the School Lunch Programs.

[Danke]

SS funding will be solved though inflation and means testing.

[ATruepatriot]

This thread should be about Welfare , not about social security.

If we had no social security as society is structured today, that would give you true socialism the
likes of which you can't possibly imagine, and / or we would be serving
Soylent Green in the School Lunch Programs.

Until the welfare rolls swelled so big the SS fund did fine and would still be solvent.

[Swordsmyth]

fixed it for ya.
From Strat's link:


A Ponzi scheme (/ˈpɒnzi/ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA/English), Italian: [ˈpontsi] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA/Italian); also a Ponzi game)[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme#cite_note-1) is a form of fraud (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraud) that lures investors (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investor) and pays profits (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profit_(accounting)) to earlier investors with funds (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Funding) from more recent investors.[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme#cite_note-2) The scheme leads victims to believe that profits are coming from product sales or other means, and they remain unaware that other investors are the source of funds. A Ponzi scheme can maintain the illusion of a sustainable business (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business) as long as new investors contribute new funds, and as long as most of the investors do not demand full repayment and still believe in the non-existent assets they are purported to own. That is exactly what Social Security does.

[Swordsmyth]

This thread should be about Welfare , not about social security.

If we had no social security as society is structured today, that would give you true socialism the
likes of which you can't possibly imagine, and / or we would be serving
Soylent Green in the School Lunch Programs.
Social Security was used to get us where we are and it is a much larger budget item than welfare.
I want to end both.

[Stratovarious]

Until the welfare rolls swelled so big the SS fund did fine and would still be solvent.

I agree, that's why the 'management' and core mission is so important, without it , the leaches come in
and decide to dilute it and use it for everything, hence garnering the perpetual voter base.

[Swordsmyth]

I agree, that's why the 'management' and core mission is so important, without it , the leaches come in
and decide to dilute it and use it for everything, hence garnering the perpetual voter base.
Which is why government can't be trusted with it.

[ATruepatriot]

I agree, that's why the 'management' and core mission is so important, without it , the leaches come in
and decide to dilute it and use it for everything, hence garnering the perpetual voter base.

But it starts further up the chain. Need to get the powers that be to quit throwing a wrench in the works and messing up our economy first.

[oyarde]

SS funding will be solved though inflation and means testing.
True , inflation could make all those 1k a month checks seem like pocket change to the govt if they suddenly bring in much more tax revenue on many more dollars of GDP if inflation sky rockets .

[Superfluous Man]

As I have already stated , for this to be true (Ponzi) would literally mean that there are no humans
in America in say, 2040 or 2050, that would give you a 'Ponzi' scheme

No. That would not be necessary for it to be Ponzi scheme.

All that it takes to prove to show it's a Ponzi scheme is that *if* there were no humans in America at some point in the future to pay into the federal treasury (whether that be into a designated SS fund or not), *then* there would be means to keep paying out to SS recipients at that time. It matters not whether that condition actually materializes, only that the maintenance of SS depends on it not happening.

SS is a Ponzi scheme because early investors are paid at the expense of later investors.

It is not something where you pay in and then get your own money back. It's something where current retirees are dependent on money getting paid in by current workers, and those workers when they retire will depend on money getting paid in by later workers of that generation.

[Superfluous Man]

Social Security was used to get us where we are and it is a much larger budget item than welfare.
I want to end both.

Social Security is Welfare. It's just a special kind of welfare that grows ad infinitum by design, and that redistributes wealth from those who have less to those who have more, rather than the other way around.

[Superfluous Man]

I agree, that's why the 'management' and core mission is so important, without it , the leaches come in
and decide to dilute it and use it for everything, hence garnering the perpetual voter base.

What you're saying here sounds like something someone who doesn't want to eliminate Social Security would say.