Possibly one of the BEST summations of why Trump won. And why he will again.

[phill4paul]

The more they fight him the more his base is hardened.


Why do Republicans still back Trump? The answer is simple: Attitude and gratitude

Why do Republicans stick with Donald Trump?

It’s a question I’m asked again and again by Democrats, “Never Trumpers,” and journalists. But the answer is simple.

Attitude and gratitude.

For years, Republican voters wanted someone — anyone — to come along and do two things: stick it to the Clintons and punch back against the media-Democratic Party alliance that fires on every Republican brave enough to stick a head out of the foxhole.

If you attended any GOP fundraiser or grassroots event between 2000 and 2016 — and I went to hundreds — you heard this sentiment over and over. And over. And over.

For Republicans, it seemed like those awful Clintons got to play by a different set of rules than the rest of us. And they always seemed so smug about it. Many had tried and failed to oppose them. The first Bush and Bob Dole, decent men and dedicated public servants, were steamrolled by the Clintons in ’90s.

Sure, we had George W. Bush after Clinton was termed out, and Obama managed to knock Hillary down a peg in 2008. But she still wound up secretary of State while Bill traveled the world, racking up speaking fees and foundation tributes that would embarrass Croesus himself. Damn those Clintons.

For finally bringing them to heel, alone, the president has earned the forever gratitude of virtually every Republican. The rest hardly matters. Jared’s security clearance? National emergency? Stormy Daniels? Please.

Like the high school quarterback who took his team to the state championship, Trump will never buy a Diet Coke in the proverbial Republican saloon again. And the barkeep will hang Robert Mueller’s report in the back of a urinal.

Republicans waited a long time. They became angrier and angrier as a succession of honorable leaders — think George W. Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney — were portrayed by the media as stupid or feeble or criminal while Obama and the Clintons were treated with near-reverence.

Republicans waited through the Obama years, simmering with rage as the country lurched dramatically leftward and anti-Christian sentiments flourished. They seethed as traditional Christian values were mocked and barred from public policy decisions. If a baker doesn’t want to make a cake for you, leave him the hell alone and find someone else.

The natural conclusion of this pent-up anger finally boiled over in 2016.

Enter Donald Trump, the only Republican candidate who understood the actual consumer demands of the Republican marketplace: Be strong enough, bold enough, crazy enough and ruthless enough to beat the elitist media and Hillary Clinton, who is slipperier and meaner than a wet panther.

Policy? GOP voters assumed he’d basically govern like a conservative. But who had the nerve to absolutely and unapologetically take on the tormentors? Who had the guts to, oh, I don’t know, put all of Bill Clinton’s female accusers in the front row during a debate? At least Trump owned his playboy lifestyle, unlike the hypocrite Clinton. Embarrassing and tough to defend? Sure. Deal breaker? No way.

And when he achieved the presidency, Trump delivered. His campaign had sent the message Republicans wanted to hear — I take crap from no one. Everyone on this primary ballot will show their belly, he said in effect; I will show them my fists.

Trump isn’t a politician but he alone in a crowded primary field realized how much Republican politics had changed. Darrell Hammond, the best Trump actor “Saturday Night Live” ever cast, summed it up best: the president is a “genius empath.”

Unencumbered by the pablum that traps most politicians, Trump is a perfect mirror when he takes the rally stage. The attendees see themselves in him; they don’t talk or think like politicians, either. And though their lives don’t permit them to attack those they find aggravating, they can live vicariously through a president who does it for them. This is especially true for rural folks, looked down upon as hicks and rubes by the coastal elites for a very long time. Bless your hearts, we do cling to our guns and religion because they are a deeply meaningful part of our heritage.

Moar here....https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-jennings-trump-republicans-clinton-election-20190310-story.html?fbclid=IwAR07sekG8tjhlc8YK2RmRxm9u8Jdg0 SmO_M4bLnQkh0nlh8uwC9QazWKYNM

[Anti Globalist]

Yep. He's essentially unbeatable at this point. Only possible crack I see is if the economy crashes.

[juleswin]

I think there are a lot of reasons why Trump won/ Clinton lost and I think there is about a 50/50 chance he wins again if the economy doesn't crash.


For years, Republican voters wanted someone — anyone — to come along and do two things: stick it to the Clintons and punch back against the media-Democratic Party alliance that fires on every Republican brave enough to stick a head out of the foxhole.

The problem I see Trump facing is an election without the Clintons, some of the Bernie bros, most of the the anti war people and many of the people who voted for him because he was the outsider will be gone. Now he would be left with attacking the media which is not much if u asked me.

With all that said, I still think he has a 50% chance of winning.

[phill4paul]

I think there are a lot of reasons why Trump won/ Clinton lost and I think there is about a 50/50 chance he wins again if the economy doesn't crash.



The problem I see Trump facing is an election without the Clintons, some of the Bernie bros, most of the the anti war people and many of the people who voted for him because he was the outsider will be gone. Now he would be left with attacking the media which is not much if u asked me.

With all that said, I still think he has a 50% chance of winning.

He never promised anti-war. So that vote is negligible. Bring Bernie on. I don't see the Democrat party nominating him despite his early entry, and I don't see an old white male millionaire wining against Trump. ALL the people that voted for him because he is an "outsider" will vote for him again, exactly because of what was written in the article.
For the Dems to win it is going to take a black woman, either Michelle or Oprah.

[juleswin]

He never promised anti-war. So that vote is negligible. Bring Bernie on. I don't see the Democrat party nominating him despite his early entry, and I don't see an old white male millionaire wining against Trump. ALL the people that voted for him because he is an "outsider" will vote for him again, exactly because of what was written in the article.
For the Dems to win it is going to take a black woman, either Michelle or Oprah.

He did give a lot of people the impression that he was non interventionist up to the point where anti war.com were fooled into writting positive articles about him. The Bernie bros will be gone if Bernie Sanders is nominated. The will lose some of that outsider vote from the voters. He will not lose a lot from these groups(except for the Bernie bros) but if he loses enough from these groups in crucial states, he will lose a close election.

I doubt a black woman is going to be POTUS in my lifetime and I think the democrats can win in 2020. They need a few of the coalition group to abandon Trump and for the economy to maybe have a fever. Those combos is likely going to doom Trump against a straight white male democrat which is who I think they will nominate

[kahless]

The Democratic party has learned nothing with their candidates doubling down on extremist policies. The further left and into lunacy they go the higher percentage point Trump will win by.

[Dr.3D]

It almost seems like the Democrats want Trump to win.

[juleswin]

The Democratic party has learned nothing with their candidates doubling down on extremist policies. The further left and into lunacy they go the higher percentage point Trump will win by.

Bold unapologetic, doubling down on mistakes is what sells. The democrats will sell their SJW, bigger govt, progressive vision for America and the person who sells the most progressive, left wing(not John Kerry or Clinton centrism) will have the best chance against Trump. They will try and do the AOC gimmic i.e. convidence in the face of fail, strength when there is no substance and a can-do attitude the likes this country had never seen before.

Policies are not as important as they used to be, its all about attidute and posturing.

[Zippyjuan]

Well he did already beat one of the worst Democratic candidates to run in a long time.

[kahless]

It almost seems like the Democrats want Trump to win.

I was wondering that when I wrote the post above yours.

One thing that crossed my mind was the possibility it is all one big sham. People are managed into one of two camps. When camp A is in power for 8 years they are placated somewhat and civil strife is avoided. After awhile however Camp B after too many years out of power will eventually reach a boiling point. At that time they are placated with 8 years to avoid civil strife.

[RJB]

I know a lot of old school union Democrats who never voted Republican who like Trump.

[phill4paul]

He did give a lot of people the impression that he was non interventionist up to the point where anti war.com were fooled into writting positive articles about him. The Bernie bros will be gone if Bernie Sanders is nominated. The will lose some of that outsider vote from the voters. He will not lose a lot from these groups(except for the Bernie bros) but if he loses enough from these groups in crucial states, he will lose a close election.

I doubt a black woman is going to be POTUS in my lifetime and I think the democrats can win in 2020. They need a few of the coalition group to abandon Trump and for the economy to maybe have a fever. Those combos is likely going to doom Trump against a straight white male democrat which is who I think they will nominate

The economy may tank but as long as job hires are high he'll be fine. And I think they will be. Gainful employment is the quickest route to becoming an conservative. Trumps "group" is fine with him. Understand this, which is the authors point, NOBODY, in any significant numbers, is leaving Trump. The truth be told there just may be a doubling down through the non-committed.

The point of the article is that Trump is perceived as fighting the establishment, the media, the Deep State. These things are never more apparent to Trump supporters than the daily barrage he receives.

He's gonna win in 2020. I'm calling it.

[phill4paul]

Well he did already beat one of the worst Democratic candidates to run in a long time.

It was her time. After having to bow out for Obama. Womanhood didn't beat out blackness. Then again, perhaps Democrats, deep down believe that the Clinton machine was and is a shit show.

[Zippyjuan]

I was wondering that when I wrote the post above yours.

One thing that crossed my mind was the possibility it is all one big sham. People are managed into one of two camps. When camp A is in power for 8 years they are placated somewhat and civil strife is avoided. After awhile however Camp B after too many years out of power will eventually reach a boiling point. At that time they are placated with 8 years to avoid civil strife.

People get tired of or decide a leader actually sucks so they elect somebody from the other party for "change" (this does not work as well for House and Senate seats which are usually set up to favor demographically one party over the other by gerrymandering) so they elect somebody from the other party. Then they find out things aren't that much better so they vote for somebody from the other party. You do get your "hardcores" who will vote for one party no matter what but more and more are now "unafilliated" voters who do the swinging. It isn't about "civil strife". Just bad options.

Trump got 46.6% of the votes cast in 2016.

[Dr.3D]

I was wondering that when I wrote the post above yours.

One thing that crossed my mind was the possibility it is all one big sham. People are managed into one of two camps. When camp A is in power for 8 years they are placated somewhat and civil strife is avoided. After awhile however Camp B after too many years out of power will eventually reach a boiling point. At that time they are placated with 8 years to avoid civil strife.

When I saw this video, I thought, it's like he knows they are trying to make him win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldG8we1ysWM

[oyarde]

Well he did already beat one of the worst Democratic candidates to run in a long time.

And they will quickly provide another since that is all they can muster .

[Swordsmyth]

Trump is far from perfect but he is the best President we have had since Coolidge and he will be reelected.

[juleswin]

The economy may tank but as long as job hires are high he'll be fine. And I think they will be. Gainful employment is the quickest route to becoming an conservative. Trumps "group" is fine with him. Understand this, which is the authors point, NOBODY, in any significant numbers, is leaving Trump. The truth be told there just may be a doubling down through the non-committed.

The point of the article is that Trump is perceived as fighting the establishment, the media, the Deep State. These things are never more apparent to Trump supporters than the daily barrage he receives.

He's gonna win in 2020. I'm calling it.

I wouldn't be surprised if he wins and I wouldn't bet against it, just don't think he got this in the bank.

Going to bookmark this thread for future reference :)

[Zippyjuan]

Incumbency helps- unless there is some crisis people think you aren't doing enough to solve. It is certainly too early to speculate.

[phill4paul]

I wouldn't be surprised if he wins and I wouldn't bet against it, just don't think he got this in the bank.

Going to bookmark this thread for future reference :)

Fair enough. It IS a bit far out. Any number of things can happen. The media will continue it's attack which will harden his supporters. The left will continue it's hard left shift. Barring something outrageous, I feel alright in calling it.

[Zippyjuan]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/12/paul-ryan-trump-2020-1217027


Ryan warns Trump could be beat in 2020

Former House Speaker Paul Ryan on Monday warned that President Donald Trump's reelection prospects could be in danger next year if he relies on his personality, rather than focus on policy to win another four years in the White House.

Speaking at a lecture in Vero Beach, Fla., in some of his first public comments since leaving Congress two months ago, Ryan bemoaned the political polarization that was a defining characteristic of his tenure as speaker, blaming the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus for derailing attempts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act and blaming technology for deepening the political divide.

Ryan focused heavily on policy in his speech, Treasure Coast Newspapers reported, and urged the president to do the same during his reelection campaign. He told the audience that he believes there are some Democrats who could unseat Trump in 2020 and pushed him to define himself through his policy platform.

“The person who defines that race is going to win the race. If this is about Donald Trump and his personality, he isn’t going to win it,” Ryan said.



more at link.

[Swordsmyth]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/12/paul-ryan-trump-2020-1217027



more at link.
Who cares what a loser like Ryan thinks?

[Mach]

It almost seems like the Democrats want Trump to win.

That's what I keep thinking, it's like their extremism has blinded them to reality.

[enhanced_deficit]

In 2016 I had thought MAGA would win, impressive communicator running against terrible Dem/much of GOP opposition. For another discussion today stumbled on an old video of his classic 2016 debate perfemance where he destroyed fellow GOP candidate (classic Trump 2016 debate video, 'Lyin Ted' (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a7IChOW8nf0)) . Quick on his feet and sharp.

That said, this is no longer 2016 and even though he's still a very tough candidate to beat, I'm not as certain about his win in 2020. His embrace of some of the worst Bush-Cheney fiasco era globalist neocons is just one of the reasons, some alienation of a significant part of Right is another even though he has made some inroads into the Left/Dems votebank. Also depends on economy next year and to a little extent on any Mueller surprises.

[timosman]

Well he did already beat one of the worst Democratic candidates to run in a long time.

You should show more respect to Grandma. :cool:

[timosman]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/12/paul-ryan-trump-2020-1217027



more at link.

https://twitter.com/SpeakerRyan/status/1105848213284814848

1105848213284814848

[Swordsmyth]

https://twitter.com/SpeakerRyan/status/1105848213284814848

1105848213284814848
In all fairness I must repeat myself:


Who cares what a loser like Ryan thinks?

[Dr.3D]

I was wondering that when I wrote the post above yours.

One thing that crossed my mind was the possibility it is all one big sham. People are managed into one of two camps. When camp A is in power for 8 years they are placated somewhat and civil strife is avoided. After awhile however Camp B after too many years out of power will eventually reach a boiling point. At that time they are placated with 8 years to avoid civil strife.
Thus it's all a show and the people are being played like a violin.

[timosman]

Thus it's all a show and the people are being played like a violin.

https://pics.me.me/give-them-bread-and-circuses-and-they-will-never-27329036.png

[kcchiefs6465]

We need strong honorable leaders like Trump, George W. Bush, McCain, and Romney.

That anyone could claim criminality or stupidity as affecting these men is lunacy.

While the left screeching like retards endears themselves to no one, well over $1,000,000,000,000 a year deficits from the great one.

[TheTexan]

She's gonna be in jail before his 2nd term is up, for sure :cool:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFGiZT-MnI4

[unknown]

Does a typical primary occur?

[timosman]

Does a typical primary occur?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

the last time an incumbent was seriously challenged in a presidential primary contest was when Senator Ted Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter for the Democratic nomination in 1980


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qABA0X6IzxU