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View Full Version : When estimating the Tea Party numbers...consider this

BLS
12-13-2007, 04:52 PM
There is a financial advisor (name escapes me) who is very successful, and not only recently endorsed Ron Paul, but even went as far as emailing all of his clients (60,000) in an effort to get them to donate the maximum of \$2300 to RP.

If you take 10 Million, divide it by 2300, you get 4,347.

So if 4,347 of those 60,000 people all donate the max, that alone is 10 Million.

4,347 is a ratio of 1 in 14. That means if he can endorse a candidate to people who have earned alot of money from his investment advice, and not even 10% of them jump on board and donate, we're WAY over 10,000,000.

Couple that with the fact there was a Dr. who has a mailing list of over 2 million people (some natural remedies Dr.), who also endorsed Ron Paul.

Add in the unknown....new recruits who haven't yet donated, but might very well be waiting until the Tea Party.....

:cool:

Is it FEASABLE to raise \$20,000,000 +?

I didn't look at it this way until just now....and I'm not saying it's going to happen....but I know personally I'm donating 3 times what I donated on the 5th of November....this could get rather exciting. So much so, I may need to take Monday off to celebrate (or recover).

Patrick Henry
12-13-2007, 04:56 PM
There is a financial advisor (name escapes me) who is very successful, and not only recently endorsed Ron Paul, but even went as far as emailing all of his clients (60,000) in an effort to get them to donate the maximum of \$2300 to RP.

If you take 10 Million, divide it by 2300, you get 4,347.

So if 4,347 of those 60,000 people all donate the max, that alone is 10 Million.

4,347 is a ratio of 1 in 14. That means if he can endorse a candidate to people who have earned alot of money from his investment advice, and not even 10% of them jump on board and donate, we're WAY over 10,000,000.

Couple that with the fact there was a Dr. who has a mailing list of over 2 million people (some natural remedies Dr.), who also endorsed Ron Paul.

Add in the unknown....new recruits who haven't yet donated, but might very well be waiting until the Tea Party.....

:cool:

Is it FEASABLE to raise \$20,000,000 +?

I didn't look at it this way until just now....and I'm not saying it's going to happen....but I know personally I'm donating 3 times what I donated on the 5th of November....this could get rather exciting. So much so, I may need to take Monday off to celebrate (or recover).

I agree with all of this.
I have no idea how much the good Dr. is going to raise Sunday, but it definitely has the potential to be something that none of us could have ever guessed.

nist7
12-13-2007, 05:00 PM
November 5th, we had about 120% more donors than what was pledged on the website.

So a realistic expectation would be a 200% increase in donor number inaddition to the pledge number of 30,000. So this alone is 90,000 donors....which means 9 million.

Alot of people that I know, including myself, will donate at least twice of what we did on Nov 5th.....so the average may be closer to \$200 per donor.....

90,000 x \$200 = 18 million

so 20 million.......might be a possibility!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

yongrel
12-13-2007, 05:01 PM
There is a financial advisor (name escapes me) who is very successful, and not only recently endorsed Ron Paul, but even went as far as emailing all of his clients (60,000) in an effort to get them to donate the maximum of \$2300 to RP.

If you take 10 Million, divide it by 2300, you get 4,347.

So if 4,347 of those 60,000 people all donate the max, that alone is 10 Million.

4,347 is a ratio of 1 in 14. That means if he can endorse a candidate to people who have earned alot of money from his investment advice, and not even 10% of them jump on board and donate, we're WAY over 10,000,000.

Couple that with the fact there was a Dr. who has a mailing list of over 2 million people (some natural remedies Dr.), who also endorsed Ron Paul.

Add in the unknown....new recruits who haven't yet donated, but might very well be waiting until the Tea Party.....

:cool:

Is it FEASABLE to raise \$20,000,000 +?

I didn't look at it this way until just now....and I'm not saying it's going to happen....but I know personally I'm donating 3 times what I donated on the 5th of November....this could get rather exciting. So much so, I may need to take Monday off to celebrate (or recover).

That's a lot of "if"s

aspiringconstitutionalist
12-13-2007, 05:01 PM
I didn't think 11/5 would actually do \$4.3m. It ended up doubling my expectations, honestly. Right now, my gut feeling is \$6m for 12/16. Which means, who knows, maybe it'll be a \$12m day then. The Teaparty is a complete enigma--I have no idea how much it could bring in--perhaps those fundraising emails sent out by the campaign earlier this month made almost all of the subscribers send their donations in early and 12/16 is going to be a dud. Maybe the extended publicity period has alerted tons of people who are going to donate and 12/16 is going to go down in the record books for the next three decades. No idea.

newbitech
12-13-2007, 05:01 PM
i wont be able to do as much as I did on Nov 5. (\$200 cause money is tight). HOWEVER, I will be donating the \$100 I pledged and I have commitments from 3 other people who have not pledged to do at least \$50 each. I think once the day gets rolling and I can convince more people that by donating they will be a part of history, I might could get 4-5 more people to put in like 25 each or so.

So yeah there is a huge well of untapped pent up frustration and I expect the number to be huge. I'd be happy to see that meter hit 20 million for the month. 24 million for the month would be outrageous considering the campaign set a goal of 12.

Can't wait!

Original_Intent
12-13-2007, 05:05 PM
I only have one expectation of December 16th - that it surpasses November 5th.

If it doubles November 5th or better, I am going to be bouncing off the walls.

There are really so many unknowns, and November 5th was such a big surprise to me (I had a wishfull 1.8 million estimate that I thought was optimistic) at this point I just want to watch the line go vertial at 12:01 and continue to be shocked for 24 hours.

celticsman7
12-13-2007, 05:05 PM
Peter Schiff was the financial advisor's name. A man who I would think woukd make a great U.S. Treasurer. However, that endorsement and e-mail he gave was over a month ago. Those who he convinced to donate probably already did so. Those who did donate probably didn't donate \$2300. Giving money to someone isn't something people do willingly. They have to really believe in the cause they are contributing too. That's why I'm skeptical about the wide-ranging impact of these mass-emails.

However, \$20,000,000 is definately obtainable. The only thing that could get in our way is if the site crashes or people donate at the wrong time. But, if all goes according to plan, we might reach 200,000 donors and thus \$20 million.

Neo189
12-13-2007, 05:06 PM
I certainly hope this is possible. I've been predicting \$6 million, which I realize is somewhat pessimistic, but if what you say is all true, then \$20 million seems entirely possible!

That being said, we shouldn't be bracing ourselves for dissapointment or anything. Remember that this is still speculation, and we need to keep working hard to make it possible.

nist7
12-13-2007, 05:07 PM
However, \$20,000,000 is definately obtainable. The only thing that could get in our way is if the site crashes or people donate at the wrong time. But, if all goes according to plan, we might reach 200,000 donors and thus \$20 million.

Two very good points. And one of them is easily fixed by a little common sense by everyone: donate at the right TIME: see my sig below

dante
12-13-2007, 05:07 PM
That's a lot of "if"s

Correct it is... but I personally am still convinced that the total amount raised on the 16th is going to blow everyone's wildest expectations out of the water. It doesn't take that many high dollar donors to equal a lot of money rolling in... and a lot of people on these forums even (myself included) have mentioned they are giving a lot more than \$100 on the 16th. We already have a donor base this quarter of over 100k

dirka
12-13-2007, 05:15 PM
I want to be as optimistic as the next guy, but lets not go overboard on the 20 million in one day stuff. It will be very hard to do that, so lets low ball our numbers so we are happy with what he does receive.

I would hate for us to have a "Gas for the Huckabus" type of situation.

I'm sorry huckabee losers??? were you saying God was going to deliver you 17 million dollars, Whoops!

rich34
12-13-2007, 05:17 PM
Dr. Mercola is the guy to watch. If he can get a 10th (100,000) of his email list
(1.3 million) to donate to Dr. Paul on Sunday.... it's on!

mmink15
12-13-2007, 05:20 PM
I hope the 2 individuals that sent out mass e-mails follows them up this week. Americans can be quite apathetic when it comes to politics.

Shellshock1918
12-13-2007, 05:22 PM
Lets keep our expectations low so we're not dissapointed. Just hope to break 4.38, after all its all good. :D

Flirple
12-13-2007, 05:23 PM
That's a lot of "if"s

Lol. Yeah this is what's called "fuzzy math".

TwinTurboMike
12-13-2007, 05:26 PM
December 16th will be the longest I've ever sat continuously in front of the computer. ;-)

Just kidding. Get out there and promote!

Splendor
12-13-2007, 05:37 PM
Also keep in mind that I'm donating \$10 because I'm broke. :p

bobmurph
12-13-2007, 05:51 PM
Lets keep our expectations low so we're not dissapointed. Just hope to break 4.38, after all its all good. :D

Totally disagree. What is the point of having low expectations? If you don't aim high then you essentially guarantee a low result. \$20 million is not out of reach. Not by a long shot. However much we raise is entirely up to us, and what kind of sacrifice you're willing to make for this thing. If the average donation is \$100 (as it was last time) and we raise \$6M...then that's \$12M if people double their donations. We have the power to blow this out of the water if we are willing to sacrifice and double, triple, all the way to maxing out our donation.

This is it. This is our chance to change history. In the grand scheme of things the difference between a \$100 donation and a \$500 donation is peanuts compared to the effect that we could make on the country. If \$100 average donation equals a \$6M day, then a \$500 donation equals \$30M!

For all of the bitching we do about lack of fair coverage by the MSM, limited time in the debates, biased talk radio, this is an opportunity where we have no one to blame but ourselves and no excuses if we only raise \$6M.

The founders of this country put the lives on the line. If we really want to change this country and get Ron elected we have to be willing to make serious sacrfice. That means going all-in. Whatever it takes. If we raise \$6M on Sunday we get to keep playing. If we raise \$20, \$30, \$50 million...we're in the drivers seat.

We control our own destiny. Max out if you want Ron to win. We ARE the small minority that can change the direction of this country. Our fate (at least with this event) is totally in our own hands.

anewvoice
12-13-2007, 05:52 PM
6 million, 8 million, 12 million, 20 million

Isn't it amazing that since August (YAY, we raised 300k from meetup) to now, we would ACTUALLY be disappointed if we raised 5 million in one day.

We are strong.

BLS
12-13-2007, 06:03 PM
I'm not trying to set us up for failure....just pointing out some obvious facts, some realistic ratios, and the distinct possibility that we could WAY outdue what any of us expects, same as it was on November 5th, when everyone was very worried we wouldn't even make 2 million.

This campaign is growing; exponentially. I expect we could be VERY surprised.

Chibioz
12-13-2007, 06:09 PM
i'm donating 10x what i donated on the 5th. i feel pretty optimistic, there is the possibility that the final number will blow away all expectations.

xerigen
12-13-2007, 06:12 PM
Wow, and I thought I was being optimistic with 8.6 million, to think that I could be pessimistic is crazy to think, but I hope it doubles my prediction.

rich34
12-13-2007, 06:18 PM
If half of Mercola's email list donates on the 16th Ron and the entire campaign will be swimming in money. I'd say they could even run a superbowl ad and not lose nothing lol.

Menthol Patch
12-13-2007, 06:20 PM
Please keep supporting the Tea Party everyone!

Have you told all of your Myspace friends about the Tea Party?

Have you told all of your friends, family members, neighbors, co-workers, and associates about the Tea Party?

We need to GET ON THE BALL and start spreading the word about the Tea Party! We only have a couple of days left!

richk
12-13-2007, 06:25 PM
I was shocked at 4.3 million on Nov. 5th; I was hoping to exceed 1.5 million. :o I am going to donate at least triple the amt on Nov. 5th (\$300 this time) and I expect at least 6 million on the 16th. I hope the servers can handle the traffic. But, I suspect the sky's the limit this time. Let's hope we shock the world!! :cool:

quickmike
12-13-2007, 06:36 PM
I predicted 4.7 million for Nov 5th and was pretty close.

Im gonna call this one, and I bet Ill be within 200,000 of the actual total.

Its going to be 13.4 million.

Menthol Patch
12-13-2007, 06:39 PM
If we all go all out I'm certain we can raise MORE than 10 million.

torchbearer
12-13-2007, 06:41 PM
I predicted 4.7 million for Nov 5th and was pretty close.

Im gonna call this one, and I bet Ill be within 200,000 of the actual total.

Its going to be 13.4 million.

Bold prediction... I was looking at the 5mil range.

wfd40
12-13-2007, 06:41 PM
Are people/HQ basically pretty confident in the servers we have set up??

bobmurph
12-13-2007, 06:54 PM
Bold prediction... I was looking at the 5mil range.

\$5M will be a massive disappointment in my eyes.

Not saying \$5M is not an incredible feat, nor that it is a great deal of money to fund the campaign thru the primary (after all, that is the primary objective). But we have the ability to raise 10 fold of some of the predictions on here if people would be willing to sacrifice for this thing. I call bullshit on anyone who says they only have \$100 to give. Sell your TV. Cancel cable and internet for a month. Take out a new credit card. If you really want to raise \$10M or \$20M we have to be willing to sacrifice...if we're not willing to do that, then the lowball estimates will be right.

This is supposed to be Teaparty 2.0. The beginning of a new revolution. Tens of thousands of men died for the American Revolution. We're doing them an injustice by calling this a Revolution and comparing this event to the Boston Tea Party if we're not willing to make the slightest sacrifices in our own lives to make this event as big as possible and donate more than we can afford.

Goldwater Conservative
12-13-2007, 08:13 PM
6 million, 8 million, 12 million, 20 million

Isn't it amazing that since August (YAY, we raised 300k from meetup) to now, we would ACTUALLY be disappointed if we raised 5 million in one day.

We are strong.

Inflation. ;)

I think anything over Hitlery's one-day "record" (whether it's real or not isn't the issue, just that the media thinks it is) is a huge victory. Don't forget how much the meter was jumping on 11/5, and getting \$6.2 million (or whatever is necessary to beat the "record") would be an increase of 50%. It'd also put us at \$18-19 million total with two weeks left in the quarter.

torchbearer
12-13-2007, 08:48 PM
//

Paul4Prez
12-13-2007, 09:16 PM
The safe bet right now is \$3 million. Some people who were planning to donate on the 16th ponied up earlier when the campaign requested it. A lot of people are already maxed out from November 5th, either legally or personally, and Christmas is two weeks away. The average donation probably isn't going to be as high as it was on November 5th.

I'm hoping for \$7 million to break Hillary's record, but don't think anyone should be too disappointed if it's "only" \$4 or \$5 million.

Jobarra
12-13-2007, 09:40 PM
I still say at least \$11.7M. If it's alot more, I'll be happy. I just want to double the entire quarter in one day. This has received WAY too much coverage and support to not have at least 100,000 donors. I'm hoping we hit 150,000+ donors.