Zippyjuan
01-30-2019, 01:07 PM
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/white-suburbia-the-source-of-trumps-texas-troubles
From the outside, Texas appears troubling for President Trump in 2020 because of demographic changes that have featured a steady climb in the population of Hispanic voters.
But actually, the leftward drift, first evident in 2016 when Trump won Texas by less than 10 percentage points, is a byproduct of sharp opposition to the president in Texas’ burgeoning upscale suburbs that are dominated by whites, according to Texas Republican strategists.
In 2016, Trump lost suburban Houston’s 7th Congressional District and suburban Dallas’ 32nd Congressional District — both traditionally held by Republicans up and down the ballot — to Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In 2018 the Republican incumbents who for several years had easily defended these House seats fell to Democratic challengers in the midterm elections. The president’s particularly low job approval ratings among women fueled the Democratic Party's victories there, and Republicans worry that this situation could foreshadow what's to come next year.
“It’s the suburbs,” Robin Armstrong, who represents Texas on the Republican National Committee, acknowledged in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “That’s basically the woman’s vote. We need to make sure that we’re engaging females and letting them know that we’re addressing their values and concerns.”
In 2018, Hispanic turnout in Texas rose by about 73 percent from 2014, according to a post-election review issued by Latino Victory Fund. But, as revealed by figures compiled by the Texas secretary of state, voter turnout overall increase a bit more, by about 77 percent. That would suggest the growing strength of Democrats in the state is not due to the rising Hispanic population.
GOP political strategists in Texas, who keep close tabs on the electorate, say it is the significant shifts detected among whites that explain Republican leaders' anxiety about 2020.
In the 2018 Senate contest, Democrat Beto O’Rourke, then a sitting congressman, carried suburban women 55 percent to 44 percent, according to exit polling from the Associated Press that was reported by the Dallas Morning News.
Republican Sen. Ted Cruz would eventually win re-election by just under 3 percentage points. He carried suburban men, 59 percent to 41 percent. However, that percentage was 10 points less than Cruz’s performance with small town/rural men, and a key indicator of his drop-off in suburbia.
Comparing the results of the 2014 and 2018 Senate races puts the potential transformation in the voting habits of white voters in starker relief, Republican officials in the state say.
Last year, five key suburban counties flipped nearly upside down from where they finished in the previous midterm election. In 2014, Republican Sen. John Cornyn defeated his Democratic challenger in Denton, Fort Bend, Hays, Tarrant, and Williamson counties. Four years later, only Denton went for Cruz over O’Rourke.
Meantime, Republicans lost a dozen seats in the state legislature, all situated in suburban strongholds and all but one with a solid majority of white voters. Meanwhile, Republican margins of victory were uncomfortably close in eight congressional districts with significant portions of suburban voters.
“Suburban voters flipped on the Republicans in 2018. We held on, but barely,” a veteran Republican operative in Texas said, requesting anonymity in order to speak candidly about the political challenges confronting the president in 2020. “Trump is still in White House, which means the dynamic is going to be very similar. The white, upper class suburban voters are not pro-Trump at all.”
An RNC spokeswoman downplayed the midterm elections and said the party was prepared for 2020.
More at link.
From the outside, Texas appears troubling for President Trump in 2020 because of demographic changes that have featured a steady climb in the population of Hispanic voters.
But actually, the leftward drift, first evident in 2016 when Trump won Texas by less than 10 percentage points, is a byproduct of sharp opposition to the president in Texas’ burgeoning upscale suburbs that are dominated by whites, according to Texas Republican strategists.
In 2016, Trump lost suburban Houston’s 7th Congressional District and suburban Dallas’ 32nd Congressional District — both traditionally held by Republicans up and down the ballot — to Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In 2018 the Republican incumbents who for several years had easily defended these House seats fell to Democratic challengers in the midterm elections. The president’s particularly low job approval ratings among women fueled the Democratic Party's victories there, and Republicans worry that this situation could foreshadow what's to come next year.
“It’s the suburbs,” Robin Armstrong, who represents Texas on the Republican National Committee, acknowledged in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “That’s basically the woman’s vote. We need to make sure that we’re engaging females and letting them know that we’re addressing their values and concerns.”
In 2018, Hispanic turnout in Texas rose by about 73 percent from 2014, according to a post-election review issued by Latino Victory Fund. But, as revealed by figures compiled by the Texas secretary of state, voter turnout overall increase a bit more, by about 77 percent. That would suggest the growing strength of Democrats in the state is not due to the rising Hispanic population.
GOP political strategists in Texas, who keep close tabs on the electorate, say it is the significant shifts detected among whites that explain Republican leaders' anxiety about 2020.
In the 2018 Senate contest, Democrat Beto O’Rourke, then a sitting congressman, carried suburban women 55 percent to 44 percent, according to exit polling from the Associated Press that was reported by the Dallas Morning News.
Republican Sen. Ted Cruz would eventually win re-election by just under 3 percentage points. He carried suburban men, 59 percent to 41 percent. However, that percentage was 10 points less than Cruz’s performance with small town/rural men, and a key indicator of his drop-off in suburbia.
Comparing the results of the 2014 and 2018 Senate races puts the potential transformation in the voting habits of white voters in starker relief, Republican officials in the state say.
Last year, five key suburban counties flipped nearly upside down from where they finished in the previous midterm election. In 2014, Republican Sen. John Cornyn defeated his Democratic challenger in Denton, Fort Bend, Hays, Tarrant, and Williamson counties. Four years later, only Denton went for Cruz over O’Rourke.
Meantime, Republicans lost a dozen seats in the state legislature, all situated in suburban strongholds and all but one with a solid majority of white voters. Meanwhile, Republican margins of victory were uncomfortably close in eight congressional districts with significant portions of suburban voters.
“Suburban voters flipped on the Republicans in 2018. We held on, but barely,” a veteran Republican operative in Texas said, requesting anonymity in order to speak candidly about the political challenges confronting the president in 2020. “Trump is still in White House, which means the dynamic is going to be very similar. The white, upper class suburban voters are not pro-Trump at all.”
An RNC spokeswoman downplayed the midterm elections and said the party was prepared for 2020.
More at link.