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View Full Version : FED say`s "inflation is only .04%" Can you believe this BS!




Dave Wood
12-13-2007, 10:03 AM
Wholesale Prices, Retail Sales Jump
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Dec 13, 10:03 AM (ET)

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WASHINGTON (AP) - Wholesale prices and retail sales jumped in November and jobless claims fell last week. Business inventories grew slightly.

Wholesale prices shot up 3.2 percent, the biggest jump in 34 years, propelled by a record rise in gasoline prices. Meanwhile, consumers put aside worries about the weak economy in November to storm into the shopping malls, pushing up retail sales by the largest amount in six months.

The Labor Department reports that new claims filed for jobless benefits dropped to 333,000 last week, an encouraging sign that the job market is holding together despite problems in the economy.

And the Commerce Department reports that business inventories grew by 0.1 percent in October, the weakest advance in seven months.

The gain in wholesale prices was propelled by a record rise in wholesale gasoline prices. Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, the Labor Department said inflation rose by 0.4 percent.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that retail sales surged by 1.2 percent last month, double the gain that economists had expected. That followed a much weaker 0.2 percent rise in retail sales in October.

Half of the November increase came from a big jump in gasoline pump prices and therefore was not seen as a sign of strength in consumer demand. But there were widespread gains across a number of other areas from department stores to appliance and furniture stores.

The big gain in retail sales was the largest increase since a 1.6 percent jump last May. Economists had expected a much weaker 0.6 percent rise, believing that a multitude of problems facing consumers, from a prolonged housing slump to rising troubles in obtaining credit, would dampen spending.

Many economists believe those problems will seriously depress growth over the next six months, raising the possibility of a full-blown recession, something the country has not had to endure since 2001.

The Federal Reserve, struggling to get credit flowing again and ward off a downturn, cut a key interest rate for the third time this year and on Wednesday announced a global effort with other central banks to pump fresh cash into the banking system.

The report on retail sales showed that sales at gasoline stations jumped by 6.8 percent, the biggest increase since September 2005, another period when gasoline prices were surging.

Excluding gasoline, retail sales would have been up by a still solid 0.6 percent. This strength reflected a gain of 0.9 percent at department stores and general merchandise stores such as Wal-Mart and Target and a solid increase of 2.6 percent at specialty clothing stores. Analysts said colder weather in November and heavy promotional efforts in the period following Thanksgiving helped lift this total.

Retail sales also posted strong increases at appliance stores, furniture stores, sporting goods stores and grocery stores. Sales were down, however, for autos, falling by 1 percent after a 0.6 percent drop in October. Domestic automakers have been struggling with weak demand in the face of surging gas prices.

EDIT: sorry, .4%, not .04%...

risiusj
12-13-2007, 10:06 AM
I believe what the Fed says. They're the one's dealing with it. They would have no incentive whatsoever to lie and cover their backsides.

I like the line in Aravoth's "House of Cards" where the guy says that in order for our economy to look good we have to assume that our inflation is at .8%. He then says that the Dow Jones is up 100 points that day, but if you price it in Canadian dollars it's down almost 100.

I hope people wake up fast and realize that Ron Paul is right about this situation and he is the only one that would fix it.

improv241
12-13-2007, 10:07 AM
It could be 4%. Sometimes you SHOULD calculate inflation excluding things like oil, but you can calculate it other ways with oil (which I think it should be).

Bottom line, 4% is a fictitious number that the Fed should not have the right to "determine" our inflation rate.

ronpaulfan
12-13-2007, 10:09 AM
Where is the digg link?

querty
12-13-2007, 10:10 AM
Inflation = the amount of new money put into the system. Nothing else.

Rising prices is caused by inflation, it's not equal to inflation.

jumpyg1258
12-13-2007, 10:21 AM
I base inflation off of the RMI (Ramen Noodle Index) and not what the Fed says. Ten years ago I was able to get 10 packs of ramen for $1. Nowadays I can only get 3 to 4 packs of tasty ramen for a $1.

AdamT
12-13-2007, 10:23 AM
Whatever the government says, multiply it by 10. That's usually pretty accurate.

jgmaynard
12-13-2007, 10:26 AM
Ron's bashing of Bernake got me really looking into this. I've been interested in economics all my life, but more in theory than practicallity. But what I am learning lately is that the CPI that the government uses to "measure inflation" is a terrible indicator - like using a W/L record to judge a baseball pitcher - while the MZM index that Ron mentioned is a much better indicator, like looking at a pitcher's WHIP. :)

JM

francisco
12-13-2007, 10:26 AM
I base inflation off of the RMI (Ramen Noodle Index) and not what the Fed says. Ten years ago I was able to get 10 packs of ramen for $1. Nowadays I can only get 3 to 4 packs of tasty ramen for a $1.

If the Fed stays on its current course we'll all be eating a lot more ramen noodles.

Johnnybags
12-13-2007, 10:27 AM
Fortunately, bond investors are calling their bluff(lies) finally. The FED thinks its new mantra is avoiding business cycles thru inflation and this time, with no credibility(surprise) bond invesotrs are telling them to shove it.

Stealth4
12-13-2007, 10:29 AM
The Fed is saying there was .4% inflation in a single month, not .4% annual inflation.

.4%monthly compounded for a year is 5% inflation.

WilliamC
12-13-2007, 10:35 AM
Greetings All,


I base inflation off of the RMI (Ramen Noodle Index) and not what the Fed says. Ten years ago I was able to get 10 packs of ramen for $1. Nowadays I can only get 3 to 4 packs of tasty ramen for a $1.

I get my Ramen noodles at Sam's Club, 36 packs for ~$4.00. Of course I only get one flavor (chicken) but that's nearly a months worth of workday lunches for me. The Quaker oatmeal in the 5 lb boxes is pretty cheap to, and that does me for breakfast. I bring my own sodas and make my own coffee at work, and have now cut my workweek spending to $45 for gas. Of course I've got to be careful and not splurge on weekends, but all the money I've donated to the campaign and spent on mailing letters to Iowa has come from my newfound frugality. Just my minor sacrifice for the chance to get Ron Paul elected.

William C Colley

risiusj
12-13-2007, 10:35 AM
Ron's bashing of Bernake got me really looking into this. I've been interested in economics all my life, but more in theory than practicallity. But what I am learning lately is that the CPI that the government uses to "measure inflation" is a terrible indicator - like using a W/L record to judge a baseball pitcher - while the MZM index that Ron mentioned is a much better indicator, like looking at a pitcher's WHIP. :)

JM

Sounds like the analogy of a fantasy baseball manager. :)

jgmaynard
12-13-2007, 10:38 AM
Sounds like the analogy of a fantasy baseball manager. :)

You know, I keep setting up fantasy baseball teams in the Spring, then forget about them. I can get in the top 1% of team results, though. I'd probably do better if I paid more attention to injuries and such for the players on my team. :)

JM

sunray
12-13-2007, 10:45 AM
Inflation = the amount of new money put into the system. Nothing else.


This is the definition of Austrian economics. In keynisian economics (the variety the Fed follows), inflation is rise of prices.

A very interesting comparison is at http://mises.org/story/2781