Today's Rasmussen for NH

[WillInMiami]

Mitt Romney 33%
John McCain 18%
Rudy Giuliani 15%
Mike Huckabee 14%
Ron Paul 8%
Tom Tancredo 3%
Fred Thompson 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%

[lew]

Thompson is 2%?


Ouch.

[LibertyEagle]

Mitt Romney has a huge lead. That's not good.

[dspectre]

Forget these Polls.

Don't you see that it is just manufactured?

[LibertyEagle]

Forget these Polls.

Don't you see that it is just manufactured?

No. Not Rasmussen.

They are not "manufacturing" the poll at all. What I would like to know is whether they are including undeclareds in their poll, however, or just including Republicans.

[Jwaksman]

Mitt Romney has a huge lead. That's not good.


That's okay, we can deal with that. We can move on with a 2nd place finish. We're not winning the nomination after New Hampshire, all we have to do is move on. We need to be in the final 2. Besides, things will move a lot as things progress, and don't be surprised to see Romney tank if he loses Iowa, like what happened to Dean. Remember, his support is very soft.


As for Fred, I know he has given up on this state, but that's embarrassing. Imagine if Tancredo beats McCain in Iowa and Fred in NH? Sad.

[ThePieSwindler]

Why is this a thumbs up? Huckabee is beating us. We havent moved up in NH polls in weeks. The good news is we are polling over 20% among independants, but this is very bad news. Lets hope tea party and a good showing in iowa will push us over the top in NH...

[JMann]

Thompson is 2%?


Ouch.

I don't think Thompson's number are correct. He has a lot of old supporters that still use telegraph and I bet the polling services are not getting in touch with them.

[Bobby Johnson]

How were these results acheived? Didn't I see a poll taken a short time ago where among Independents Ron Paul and Romney were nearly tied? Wow, poll numbers can really change.:eek:

[Bigboyen]

I'm worried about his favourable polling, it has not got better the last two weeks, and if it's not starting to improve he won't have a chance on a top 2 finish.

I would like more focus on him being trustworthy, stands for his principals and always do what he say both in personal life and when in Washington. It's not enough for people to agree on the issue, they have to feel safe voting for Paul.

[freelance]

No. Not Rasmussen.

They are not "manufacturing" the poll at all. What I would like to know is whether they are including undeclareds in their poll, however, or just including Republicans.

LE, I've been watching Rasmussen for the past three years (Presidential approval), and typically they have the approval rating +5% over the other polls. I'm not sure what that means in the case of Romney, but I thought that I'd point it out. My guess is that it's one of the more "establishment leaning" polls, but I'm not sure.

[paulitics]

This is good because it was showing 4% a few days ago.

[bgoldwater]

Don't worry about Romney. In his contract to his voter, there is a stipulation that says they won't vote if the temperature is under 30 degrees with out being paid more.

[dspectre]

No. Not Rasmussen.

They are not "manufacturing" the poll at all. What I would like to know is whether they are including undeclareds in their poll, however, or just including Republicans.



Give me a Break! I know nothing about Rasmussen personally, but you notice how Huckabee has surpassed RP in the poll(this is NH)?

Have you also noticed that RP never passes 10%?

Of course it depends upon who is polled, it always depends on the data. Any idiot can run statistics.

So instead of this poll not being manufactured, he maybe incompetent because he is using bad data. So, he gets more credibility because he is established to be incompetent. That makes me feel better.

[Micahyah]

Romney will take a big hit when he loses big to Huckabee in Iowa after dropping so much money there.

He won't have a big lead like this on January 4th.

We should see Romney in lower 20s, McCain high teens, Huckabee, Giuliani, and Paul in mid teens because Paul will get a bounce from finishing 2nd or 3rd in Iowa. Huckabee will get bounce for winning Iowa.

But then with our higher turnout ratio, we should win NH even if the polls are something like Romney 23%, McCain 19%, Huckabee 19%, Guiliani 15%, Paul 15%.

Remember how Buchanan did will above what he polled when he won.

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

If we can't win NH, we certainly will not win any decent sized delegate state that matters. This is the cold reality.

[jgmaynard]

To be honest, I wouldn't worry all that much about polls in NH - most people here don't make up their minds til the last minute. In 2002, a little-known candidate for Governor (Bruce Keough) went from 3% to nearly 30% in three days right before the primary. I find that candidates people are talking about and the number and placement of lawn signs are far more indicitive of what is really going to happen. People called me crazy months ago, when I said that Obama will beat Hillary here, but that's what the latest polls show.
Keep an eye on the polls, but dont let them either get you down nor make you complacent. There's a lot of work to do, but we can get there.

JM

[speciallyblend]

we must win NH,though 2nd would be good. We also need a top 3 finish in Iowa,though 4th is workable we need a top 3 in IA,this scenario will expand our message and the gates will open up;)

[dante]

Get That Blimp To Nh Asap!!!

[jgmaynard]

McCain said that there are three dorrs out of Iowa and two doors out of NH. That may be true. Of course, Rudy is holding out for Super Tuesday, so I'd be surprised to see him drop before that regardless of the results.

JM

[lloydian]

Ron Paul has huge support in NH. Just talk to folks who have been there.

I have no idea why the polls aren't picking this up - however the supporters exist.

Evidence of his support is everywhere - more visible support than any other Rep.

[WillInMiami]

Here's why is't good news. Romney's support will not be that strong for the actual primary vote - many respondants will not show up to vote and others will change thier minds. His actual vote will be somewhere in the 20% range. This is also true for Huckabee. McCain, Thompson, and Guiliani will be less than 20%. Hunter and Tancrado will get 1 or 2 percent. We KNOW that Paul will get more than what he's polling because of the Independants, the newly registered Republicans, and the youth vote that isn't being polled.

Here's my prediction for NH:

Paul: 23%
Romney: 19%
Huckabee: 22%
Guiliani: 17%
McCain: 11%
Thompson: 4%
Hunter: 2%
Tancrado: 2%

It'll be a close race but we'll finish 1st or 2nd...

[Micahyah]

Here's my prediction for NH:

Paul: 23%
Romney: 19%
Huckabee: 22%
Guiliani: 17%
McCain: 11%
Thompson: 4%
Hunter: 2%
Tancrado: 2%

It'll be a close race but we'll finish 1st or 2nd...

I'd say that is about right, except switch McCain and Giuliani. McCain has been rising and he's putting all of his effort in to NH. Giuliani is sending up people on Saturday but he's still sticking with his Florida and onward strategy so NH isn't that big of a deal to him. If McCain finishes any lower than second in NH he'll drop out.

[werdd]

Mitt Romney has a huge lead. That's not good.

doesnt matter those are republicans, half of NH is independents, republican registered 2 time bush voters are the minority in NH.

[jgmaynard]

Here's my prediction for NH:

Paul: 23%
Romney: 19%
Huckabee: 22%
Guiliani: 17%
McCain: 11%
Thompson: 4%
Hunter: 2%
Tancrado: 2%


No way - McCain is WAY more popular here than Guili and WAY more popular than Huck. Geez, man! We're the most atheistic state in the nation - the evengelical vote doesn't exist here like it does in other states. I'm not sure of the order yet, but I'll bet dollars to donuts that Paul, Romney and McCain are the top three in NH.

JM

[DRV45N05]

Buchanan was at 7% in New Hampshire polls two weeks before the 1996 New Hampshire primary.

This poll means squat.

[RonPaulFever]

I don't think Thompson's number are correct. He has a lot of old supporters that still use telegraph and I bet the polling services are not getting in touch with them.

lol

Reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Mr. Burns goes to the post office:

"Yes, I'd like to send this letter to the Prussian consulate in Siam by aeromail. Am I too late for the 4:30 autogyro?"

[DXDoug]

ya never can be to sure with polls... let keep working hard

[Falseflagop]

Stop with these BS polls this guy is on FOX all the time enough said!

[Bigboyen]

We KNOW that Paul will get more than what he's polling because of the Independants, the newly registered Republicans, and the youth vote that isn't being polled.


The independents that say they will vote in the primary get polled. Just so everyone knows. And it’s the same for newly registered Republicans.

[jd603]

bingo.


Forget these Polls.

Don't you see that it is just manufactured?

[dirka]

Forget the Polls!!

4 years ago Dean was polling low 30's and Kerry was at like 4%, and everyone knows how that turned out. So just give it time, there are a lot of things to come after christmas

[Mental Dribble]

The independents that say they will vote in the primary get polled. Just so everyone knows. And it’s the same for newly registered Republicans.

They poll Likely republican voters. Not likely republican primary voters, further, it takes time for new people to be entered into the list.

His support is much stronger than the percentage shown. We will get a bump after this weekend too.

[Bigboyen]

They poll Likely republican voters. Not likely republican primary voters, further, it takes time for new people to be entered into the list.

His support is much stronger than the percentage shown. We will get a bump after this weekend too.

No, Rasmussen uses random calling. They don't use a list of registered republicans.

[Primbs]

The election is not today so the polls mean little. When the TV ads start to fly and the blimp is over New Hampshire expect the polls to change dramatically.

On the ground get out the vote organizations matter also.

[steph3n]

The election is not today so the polls mean little. When the TV ads start to fly and the blimp is over New Hampshire expect the polls to change dramatically.

On the ground get out the vote organizations matter also.

with winter weather don't except the blimp to make it to NH, SC and FL is more like it.

[Zeeder]

I'll believe in polls when they actually predict the winner.
Did these guys predict the winner last time? How bout the time before? Were they close to the actual results?

Have they EVER polled me?

The answer to these questions are a big fat NO.

[Badger Paul]

Right now we're in a holding pattern in New Hampshire, but with Tea Party, a Mitt-Huckabee catfight in Iowa and good showing in Iowa those numbers will change.

All poll are just snapshots at the time of the race. Huckabee's doing well because he's getting the most attention. If we do well in Iowa, WE will get all the attention.

[Goldwater Conservative]

On Rasmussen's methodology:

"First, we ask about voting history and only include those who say they vote all of the time or most of the time."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/iowa_caucus_screening

I think that's where we might be getting hurt, if we are (I think so). The question references past voting, and as we know Paul has brought in a lot of young people and cured a lot of apathy.

Edit: Scratch that, I thought this was for all states, not just Iowa. Still, maybe the methodology is similar for NH.

[R_Harris]

Right now we're in a holding pattern in New Hampshire, but with Tea Party, a Mitt-Huckabee catfight in Iowa and good showing in Iowa those numbers will change.

All poll are just snapshots at the time of the race. Huckabee's doing well because he's getting the most attention. If we do well in Iowa, WE will get all the attention.


Are we really doing that well in Iowa? I have yet to see any poll there with Ron over 8%.

I am very concerned. I really hoped he would be at 10% right now, perhaps even at 15%.

Why is he waiting to do ANYTHING in Iowa and NH? We are 3 weeks away from Iowa, 4 weeks away from NH.

HE SHOULD NOT BE HOLDING BACK ANYTHING RIGHT NOW - THERE SHOULD BE TV, RADIO, AND PRINT ADS GOING FULL BLAST EVERY DAY.

I am getting 1984 Senate race flashbacks right now.

[RevolutionSD]

On Rasmussen's methodology:

"First, we ask about voting history and only include those who say they vote all of the time or most of the time."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/iowa_caucus_screening

I think that's where we might be getting hurt, if we are (I think so). The question references past voting, and as we know Paul has brought in a lot of young people and cured a lot of apathy.

BINGO!

At least 60% of RP's support is coming from people who haven't voted in the past. And then you add in the land line factor, and you can just ignore the 8% they keep giving Paul. He's at least 14%.

[AtomiC]

These polls are fake. You notice how Ron Paul's numbers never change?

[wfd40]

Forget the Polls!!

4 years ago Dean was polling low 30's and Kerry was at like 4%, and everyone knows how that turned out. So just give it time, there are a lot of things to come after christmas

that's because that election was fixed...

Think about it... there is no way Kerry gets the nod from Dems when dean and Edwards are destroying him. It just aint possible... the guy had already been labeled as the one Dem Bush could beat. And bush was getting destroyed in national polls against Dean and Edwards.

And this is why I worry =/

[Sematary]

No. Not Rasmussen.

They are not "manufacturing" the poll at all. What I would like to know is whether they are including undeclareds in their poll, however, or just including Republicans.

Hopefully, on the day of the primary, there is 2 feet of snow on the ground and an inch an hour coming down. RP will win by a huge margin. :D

[mrd]

This is just weird. Ron Paul has the most yardsigns, he has tons of support - I've heard this from multiple mouths, even on the TV. Yet these polls show him waaaay behind. So, let's assume those polled are, in fact, the same group of people that will be voting in the primary.

It then seems a majority of primary voters aren't enthusiastic enough about their preferred candidate to even put up a yard sign, but a majority of RP supporters are. Supporters of other candidates are either unfamiliar with RP's positions, or they would rather support someone they don't care about over Ron Paul.

I am inclined to assume these people are unfamiliar with Ron Paul's positions! So we need to get the word out! Spread it! The best method? Viral, of course. Door to door knocking, yes it's good, we need it. But there's alot of boots in NH, they need to implement some viral strategies.

How about sponsoring contests on the radio? Like, $500 to the person who can best explain why _______. Fill in the blank. Why universal healthcare is the wrong choice. Why the CIA's head Bin Laden analyst supports Ron Paul? Why Ron Paul receives donations from more people than other candidates? Why Ron Paul's suggestion to adhere to the Constitution is called unrealistic by political pundits? Etc.

Offering up money for someone just to call a radio station and sound their opinion is an easy way to get people talking about it. He's catchin on, I'm tellin ya!

[daviddee]

...

[nbhadja]

You people who believe the polls are insane. The fact that Huckabitch is number 1 in NH shows how BS these polls are.

But they were pretty accurate in NH (and the country) when they showed Dean winning easily............o wait, Kerry won NH and the country easily.

[Cleaner44]

I don't think Thompson's number are correct. He has a lot of old supporters that still use telegraph and I bet the polling services are not getting in touch with them.

oooooooooooooooooooooooolol