Midterm Predictions: 6 Days Out

[r3volution 3.0]

Vote hard

[CCTelander]

My prediction? No matter who wins, liberty will lose.

Vote hard.

[Swordsmyth]

Blue Ebb Tide.

The Demoncrats will lose seats in the Senate and fail to take the House.

[r3volution 3.0]

No matter who wins, liberty will lose.

Well that's a given, but the show must go on.

[donnay]

https://s16-us2.startpage.com/cgi-bin/serveimage?ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2F The_Donald%2Fcomments%2F9kak7w%2Fred_tsunami_incom ing%2F&ua=TW96aWxsYS81LjAgKE1hY2ludG9zaDsgVTsgUFBDIE1hYyB PUyBYIDEwXzVfNjsgZW4tdXMpIEFwcGxlV2ViS2l0LzUyOC4xN iAoS0hUTUwsIGxpa2UgR2Vja28p&uadata=5bc8797972442b00ffe5b09f41c80cad&url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fjwtuss1z9gp11. jpg%3Fwidth%3D960%26crop%3Dsmart%26auto%3Dwebp%26s %3D393e6b67665ba03729e7935ecd1c8f6decc27a93&sp=d1fa4c94d905ff04b73fb43bc9f7231b&f=b7774c1cc1ba40386c49a12a76301ec2.jpg


A Red Tsunami.

Liberals will be the biggest losers, of which they have proven they are.

[aGameOfThrones]

I want Republicans to have just one seat majority for the leftist super meltdown :D

[Swordsmyth]

I want Republicans to have just one seat majority for the leftist super meltdown :D
The meltdown would be even better if the Republicans gain seats in the House.

[CCTelander]

Well that's a given, but the show must go on.


And on, and on, and ...

[Anti Globalist]

I'm predicting a red wave.

[oyarde]

One of the first two would be my guess , house incumbents rarely lose .

[Swordsmyth]

One of the first two would be my guess , house incumbents rarely lose .
There is a risk because so many R incumbents retired to try and give the Demoncrats a chance to take the House.

[Anti Globalist]

I'm going to be legitimately shocked if Pelosi ends up being Speaker of the House.

[aGameOfThrones]

If the Senate gets 60 Rs the leftist will move to canada LOL

[spudea]

I'm gonna stick with my original prediction from Sept, and the polls have narrowed since then so I'm even more confident.


I think they could lose ~10-15 due to the midterm curse but think Republican voters aren't gonna treat this like a midterm, more like a presidential election and turn out more than in the past.

[TER]

I'm gonna stick with my original prediction from Sept, and the polls have narrowed since then so I'm even more confident.

I’m with you

Gonna lose a handful of seats but still retain the House.

[PAF]

Russian roulette with all 6 loaded? Then I’d be accused of colluding with the Russians!

[Krugminator2]

Best guess Dems pick up 30-40 and just take the House.

Like 1% chance Dems pick up fewer than 10 like the votes in this poll are saying right now.

[Jamesiv1]

I predict the Dems get buried.

Unless a bunch of dead people and illegals vote.

[r3volution 3.0]

I'm going to be legitimately shocked if Pelosi ends up being Speaker of the House.

There's a fairly good chance that Pelosi won't be Speaker (at all or for long) even if the Dems takes the House.

She's about as popular among Dems as Jeb Bush is among GOPers.

[Anti Federalist]

Dems will just eke out a majority in the House, while the GOP will hold on to the senate.

Status quo, basically.

[Ender]

I predict the Dems get buried.

Unless a bunch of dead people and illegals vote.

I'm betting on dead people- it IS Halloween, after all. :flushed:

[nobody's_hero]

I hope the libertarian party is ready to take advantage of the situation when the democratic party craps the bed. It would be nice to have a party that says it wants to shrink government versus a party that actually wants to shrink government, without all the static and interference from the party that openly and unabashedly wants to grow it. Good riddance to the donkey party.

[oyarde]

Best guess Dems pick up 30-40 and just take the House.

Like 1% chance Dems pick up fewer than 10 like the votes in this poll are saying right now.

40 seems like a lot . Consider there would be some states where they would likely gain none that means two or more from ea of the other states . They already own all the seats in the communist east and west coast states and large population centers so no gains there . What am I missing ?

[r3volution 3.0]

40 seems like a lot . Consider there would be some states where they would likely gain none that means two or more from ea of the other states . They already own all the seats in the communist east and west coast states and large population centers so no gains there . What am I missing ?

538's model currently has the most likely outcome at 39.

Personally, I think it'll be a bit less than that, low 30s.

[spudea]

538's model currently has the most likely outcome at 39.

Personally, I think it'll be a bit less than that, low 30s.

Heres how Nate Silver describes his own model on the House election....


For instance, when we launched the 2018 House forecast, Democrats’ chances of winning the House were about 7 in 10 — right about what Hillary Clinton’s chances were on election night in 2016! So ignore those probabilities at your peril.
…
In Senate and gubernatorial races, most states have abundant polling. But this is less true in the House, where districts are polled sporadically and polling can be an adventure because of small sample sizes and the demographic peculiarities of each district.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-fivethirtyeights-house-and-senate-models-work/

https://www.odwyerpr.com/site_images/20161110164628_111016the-wrap-nate-silver-blew-it-bigly-on-election-night.jpg

[UWDude]

Supermajority House and Senate
GOP

[UWDude]

I hope the libertarian party is ready to take advantage of the situation when the democratic party craps the bed. It would be nice to have a party that says it wants to shrink government versus a party that actually wants to shrink government, without all the static and interference from the party that openly and unabashedly wants to grow it. Good riddance to the donkey party.

This is a likely scenario. The death of the DNC is about 6 days away. I am not kidding, when I say, they may not be able to field a presidential candidate in 2024. When losing happens, the losers turn on each other, and blame each other. But, by 2024, I am sure the GOP will be a hated, bloated monster.

[Krugminator2]

Heres how Nate Silver describes his own model on the House election....



https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-fivethirtyeights-house-and-senate-models-work/

https://www.odwyerpr.com/site_images/20161110164628_111016the-wrap-nate-silver-blew-it-bigly-on-election-night.jpg


What's funny is I consider Silver's analysis of the Trump race the single most impressive thing he has done. Nate Silver kind of was right about Trump and Hillary. Trump barely won. Most models had Hillary at like 95%+. Silver got a ridiculous amount of heat for skewing the odds in Trumps direction. It turned out he knew what he doing.

For example. here the criticism he got right before the election. Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls — All Of Them — In Trump’s Direction https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

[aGameOfThrones]

This is a likely scenario. The death of the DNC is about 6 days away. I am not kidding, when I say, they may not be able to field a presidential candidate in 2024. When losing happens, the losers turn on each other, and blame each other. But, by 2024, I am sure the GOP will be a hated, bloated monster.

If John James wins the senate seat... then 2024 Presidential Candidate.

[UWDude]

If John James wins the senate seat... then 2024 Presidential Candidate.

Tim Kaine thinks his seat is safe.

[Swordsmyth]

Tim Kaine thinks his seat is safe.
And he and "Madame President" thought they had a lock on the White House.

[CCTelander]

http://justabgkid.com/votebumsout.jpg

[r3volution 3.0]

http://justabgkid.com/votebumsout.jpg

©2016, 2014, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2006, 2004, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1996, 1994...

[Aratus]

I want Republicans to have just one seat majority for the leftist super meltdown :D

This has high odds of happening.
If the GOP looses THREE senate
seats, my best guess, a narrowly
flipped Senate tied to an almost
flipped HOUSE impeaches DJT!!!

[Aratus]

If the GOP clings onto the HOUSE by ONE seat, POTUS PENCE may be impossible to impeach
if there is total & complete GOP party unity. This is AFTER a most hypothetical impeachment
and conviction of Donald John Trump. Again, I am aware Andrew Johnson came within one lil
vote of conviction in 1868. A flipped HOUSE hands the next (D)SPEAKER a whole new address,
if a ton of dirt & illegality surfaces about DJT and close associates. 1600 PENN AVE = A flip???

[Aratus]

I'm going to be legitimately shocked if Pelosi ends up being Speaker of the House.

Even if there is a Blue Wave, she may be challenged by the "young turks" in her own party, if DJT = vulnerable.

[Aratus]

Mark my words! An intense leadership challenge within the House Democrats may precede a formal
attempt at taking impeachment to the max. To put Pulosi in, Pence has to be out. The VEEP position
open. Number 46 is either Pence or a very lucky young Democrat, if events move rapidly b4 2o20!!!

[A Son of Liberty]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E

//

[nobody's_hero]

This is a likely scenario. The death of the DNC is about 6 days away. I am not kidding, when I say, they may not be able to field a presidential candidate in 2024. When losing happens, the losers turn on each other, and blame each other. But, by 2024, I am sure the GOP will be a hated, bloated monster.

The sad part is that there's a lot of people who seem to think that the existence of D's keep some sort of a balance of power. That's utter BS. At best, it's an act when they put up opposition, and never for the right reasons anyway. Don't fret. It's a worthless party and we're overdue to have a major party go extinct in this country.


You want a real prediction? One that cuts through these bull-shit polls?


Democrat party goes extinct within 2 more presidential election cycles, but not before a ton of cheating and meltdowns on the way. It will be replaced by a much smaller but radical openly socialist party, forcing even more liberals to re-examine their beliefs and join the exodus from the left. The Libertarian party will either seek advantage of the situation to grow by leaps and bounds, or stubbornly double down on purity testing for new membership. The republican establishment will try to consolidate power, leading to a second and much larger civil war for control of the party than we saw between Ron Paul folks and the establishment, and might be driven out by former liberals (#walkaway) and the remnant of actual conservatives (if they fail, the libertarian party better have their shit together and start advertising its existence, but I'm not holding my breath). This civil war v.2 won't happen until 2024. Trump will have a second term but in the mean time he's gonna keep hammering the media into the ground which should make having an open debate more feasible without all the background noise and unwanted liberal distraction.

There, a real f'kin' prediction. Instead of "derpy derp, how many seats dems gonna get? A) A million B) 2 Million C) A gazillion"

[UWDude]

Mark my words!

Why would I? You are full of it, and out of touch.
There will be no impeachment. There will be no Dem majority in either house.
So you can go ahead and stop fantasizing about it.

[CaptUSA]

I have no idea - don't really follow the team red vs team blue stuff that closely, but being a good citizen I felt compelled to vote.

Did I do good???

[AuH20]

Is it me or are the dems cooked for 2020, given that they've exhausted so much political capital against Trump these midterms? I think they will suffer the penalties for over-saturation BIGLY! Everyone is utterly nauseated with their criticisms and unfounded accusations.

[CCTelander]

I have no idea - don't really follow the team red vs team blue stuff that closely, but being a good citizen I felt compelled to vote.

Did I do good???


You're a great American.

[Aratus]

Ten voters here expect any hypothetical (D) gains to be under ten seats. This is half of us.
Ten of us, the other half, have things going from 11 seats on up to 70. The median is about
25 to 30 seats for 1/2 of us, and 10 to 15 seats for 1/2 of us. Almost 2/3rds of us feel that
the Democrats may fall short of completely flipping the House. SIX of us expect this next!!!

[eleganz]

Don't know why we have so many prediction poll threads, I think Dems will take between 16-22 seats, the pollsters have been over projecting the democratic surge.

Everybody put your predictions in the postings and we can come back and see who got it closest, maybe that person should get a prize. lol


This has high odds of happening.
If the GOP looses THREE senate
seats, my best guess, a narrowly
flipped Senate tied to an almost
flipped HOUSE impeaches DJT!!!

Don't know why you keep repeating this, Dems won't take the senate and Trump won't be impeached.

[TheCount]

538's model currently has the most likely outcome at 39.

Personally, I think it'll be a bit less than that, low 30s.

Ayyyyyyy