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View Full Version : November Bi-Election --- How many HOUSE seats do the Democrats gain?




Aratus
10-07-2018, 11:55 AM
We had a poll on this topic that is closed.
I'm reframing it. October has its surprises.

specsaregood
10-07-2018, 12:08 PM
We had a poll on this topic that is closed.
I'm reframing it. October has its surprises.

Americans are bandwagon fans and the GOP team is currently winning... I'm getting the impression that voters will show up to enable the GOP to do a dance in the endzone.

timosman
10-07-2018, 12:26 PM
devil21 claims to know how this will unfold. Hope to learn more.

RonZeplin
10-07-2018, 12:44 PM
President Pelosi will nominate Hillary Rodham Clinton to the SCOTUS. :voltage:

https://media.breitbart.com/media/2017/06/Nancy-Pelosi-gavel-Getty-640x481.jpg

spudea
10-07-2018, 01:01 PM
poll is too complicated.

timosman
10-07-2018, 01:08 PM
poll is too complicated.

This is what happens when you suffer from TDS. :cool:

Aratus
10-07-2018, 01:15 PM
This is what happens when you suffer from TDS. :cool:

You create scenario contingent polls.
I didn't carbon copy the previous one
that was quite good, that showed this
site split between folks who see no gain
or a big (D) gain. A Blue Wave has alot
of ways it could impact. No change, then
it's status quo. Mitch McConnell rules all.

Anti Globalist
10-07-2018, 01:31 PM
The Dems will only gain a couple seats.

UWDude
10-07-2018, 03:11 PM
Where is the bloodbath option?
Democrats are going to get slaughtered, like they never have before.
Trump broke up the demographic viewerships, to blind the Democrats.
The Democrats have no idea the size of Trump's cult like shadow armies everywhere, and they grow by the day.

Yet, to the lazy analytics, who never knew struggle, or understood war, everything looks peachy fine hunky dory dandy.
They are way too busy showing off their life on social media, than doing any actual research.
Against them, is a shadow army of volunteers, like never seen before, from all over the world, using the vernacular.

It doesn't really matter what tricks the Democrats pull next, indeed, every stunt from here on out just adds powder to the keg.
What that means is, the Trump train is gaining momentum, and nothing is going to stop it.
I won't even say "barring some catastrophe".
Meuller can come out with his report a week before the election, it will just make Trump stronger.

Now Trump grabbed Feinstein by the pussy. He has the goods on her, and 100 senators and their staff know it.
She is compromised now. All Trump has to do is wave his hand, and she goes to prison for life.
But, Trump, genius that he is, has decided to just "publicly" humiliate her in front of her colleagues.
They all know she is weak now, and Trump can call in the favor he wants to, at any moment.

She got a spanking. Old Chuck Shumer granpa'd her, and told her it is alright. But the democrats are more furious with her than the Republicans. That is why Graham is peacocking. The whole senate knows the horrible truth now. Feinstein is compromised by Trump.
What does Diane have on Lisa? How much money would it take to fix an election in Alaska?
Feinstein still gave the order for Murkowski to vote no, in a symbolic scream for the history books nobody will read.
How pathetic.

It's that Masonic magic, again.
Trump, fitting name, no?

Plus, their managers want them to be optimistic, because that counts, and spirit is part of politics.

Democrats lose 5 senate seats and 10 house seats, at least. At least one senate loss will be in a so-called "safe" state, I would bet 2, though.

ILUVRP
10-07-2018, 03:24 PM
dems gain over 30 house seats

specsaregood
10-07-2018, 03:48 PM
What does Diane have on Lisa? How much money would it take to fix an election in Alaska?
Feinstein still gave the order for Murkowski to vote no, in a symbolic scream for the history books nobody will read.


FWIW, Murkowski voted "present" on the actual confirmation vote.

timosman
10-07-2018, 04:17 PM
FWIW, Murkowski voted "present" on the actual confirmation vote.

Well, this was a result of an agreement with Daines. He was at his daughter's wedding, Murkowski voted no, he would vote yes. She withdrew her vote to allow his vote to be counted and partially to save her face.

Aratus
10-07-2018, 10:03 PM
The 50 to 48 vote, indeed.

eleganz
10-07-2018, 11:55 PM
devil21 claims to know how this will unfold. Hope to learn more.

If only they would post this secret script of knowledge so we can all be illuminated and predict the future.

devil21
10-08-2018, 07:31 AM
If only they would post this secret script of knowledge so we can all be illuminated and predict the future.

Here's a clue. There's at least 45 intel officers running almost exclusively as Democrats in various House races for a reason.

"Predicting" the future is a combination of knowledge of the agenda and methods used and paying attention to the information that the media mostly ignores. Think like a military strategist, not a voter. Stop being so emotionally invested in the outcome. It's that emotional investment that turns off your critical, analytical thinking ability.

CaptUSA
10-08-2018, 07:46 AM
President Pelosi will nominate Hillary Rodham Clinton to the SCOTUS. :voltage:

https://media.breitbart.com/media/2017/06/Nancy-Pelosi-gavel-Getty-640x481.jpg

https://i.redd.it/hjezaywh9bmz.jpg

thoughtomator
10-08-2018, 08:00 AM
GOP gains in the Senate are all but certain now. Only question is how many.

GOP has an amazing 42 of 51 seats that are not up for re-election this year. Of the remaining ones, four are safe, two lean GOP and three are considered tossups.

Looking at the terrain, the leaners (MS, ND, TX) and the seats in TN and MO are looking like GOP locks. That's 51 seats - equal to the current.

To stop GOP gains, Democrats have to sweep all of the other Senate races. This would involve holding onto MT, IN, and capturing the seat in AZ, all unfavorable terrain.

Serious D-downside possibilities are open now thanks to the Kavanaugh affair. They could potentially lose ALL the toss-ups plus NJ, WV, and perhaps even RI - word has it that Whitehouse's challenger is within 10 points in internal polling and has momentum. That would be +8 seats, giving the GOP a filibuster-proof 60 vote supermajority.

thoughtomator
10-08-2018, 08:02 AM
Where is the bloodbath option?

It's not there because they already had a bloodbath in 2014 that held intact through 2016. Current numbers are post-bloodbath levels.

shakey1
10-08-2018, 08:59 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miSP9YwhktQ

nobody's_hero
10-08-2018, 11:27 AM
This is almost good enough to be a CNN poll.

Your options are essentially, "democrats don't lose" or "democrats win."

Would you like to turn 90 degrees left? Or 270 degrees to the right?

Cleaner44
10-08-2018, 01:34 PM
There will be no Blue Wave™. Fraudulent propaganda is fraudulent.

Aratus
10-08-2018, 03:13 PM
So far, at least 8 of us do think the House will not Flip.
I am sore torn. I hedged things. If I now remove my own
votes, this poll is sorta doing what the other one did, going
by the tally I just looked at. The other poll here expected
a loss of GOP seats, but a clear split over the impact

r3volution 3.0
10-08-2018, 07:48 PM
The Dems were already going to take 15-30 seats.

With Kavanaugh being confirmed, GOP excitement will wane, while the Dems will be going berserk.

Aratus
10-08-2018, 08:35 PM
It's not there because they already had a bloodbath in 2014 that held intact through 2016. Current numbers are post-bloodbath levels.

Agreed.

Aratus
10-08-2018, 08:41 PM
If things are schizoid as the GOP wins 10 seats as it
secures roughly 60 Senate seats, but the House sees
the GOP loose 20 to 25 or even 30 seats, given that
modern voters split tickets, you'd have a flipped House
impeaching people when in a foul mood, only to see a
SENATE having to try them one by one, as a slap on
the wrist is the worst thing the impeached people face.
The system could end up highly partisan and screwy as
this is hashed out for different pools of voters nationwide.
As I said, the "zoo" potential in 2019 exists. Expect chaos.

Aratus
10-08-2018, 08:48 PM
This is almost good enough to be a CNN poll.

Your options are essentially, "democrats don't lose" or "democrats win."

Would you like to turn 90 degrees left? Or 270 degrees to the right?


I have overlapping multiple options, each combo creates an alternative reality
for a universe that is very much like this one, inside the multiverse our own lil
universe is part of. What is alarming, the ones where Tim Kaine or Mike Pence
are already sworn in as the president of the USA are so damn close to this one!

timosman
10-08-2018, 08:50 PM
I have overlapping multiple options, each combo creates an alternative reality
for a universe that is very much like this one, inside the multiverse our own lil
universe is part of. What is alarming, the ones where Tim Kaine or Mike Pence
are already sworn in as the president of the USA are so damn close to this one!

and yet, the energy required to transition to either one is ...... huge :cool:

oyarde
10-08-2018, 10:42 PM
I voted . I guess less than double digits in the house and nothing in the senate for Dem gains

aGameOfThrones
10-09-2018, 12:44 AM
GOP gains in the Senate are all but certain now. Only question is how many.

GOP has an amazing 42 of 51 seats that are not up for re-election this year. Of the remaining ones, four are safe, two lean GOP and three are considered tossups.

Looking at the terrain, the leaners (MS, ND, TX) and the seats in TN and MO are looking like GOP locks. That's 51 seats - equal to the current.

To stop GOP gains, Democrats have to sweep all of the other Senate races. This would involve holding onto MT, IN, and capturing the seat in AZ, all unfavorable terrain.

Serious D-downside possibilities are open now thanks to the Kavanaugh affair. They could potentially lose ALL the toss-ups plus NJ, WV, and perhaps even RI - word has it that Whitehouse's challenger is within 10 points in internal polling and has momentum. That would be +8 seats, giving the GOP a filibuster-proof 60 vote supermajority.

FL? Rick Scott might take it.

Schifference
10-09-2018, 03:11 AM
I have overlapping multiple options, each combo creates an alternative reality
for a universe that is very much like this one, inside the multiverse our own lil
universe is part of. What is alarming, the ones where Tim Kaine or Mike Pence
are already sworn in as the president of the USA are so damn close to this one!

You have covered almost all options.

eleganz
10-09-2018, 04:17 PM
Here's a clue. There's at least 45 intel officers running almost exclusively as Democrats in various House races for a reason.

"Predicting" the future is a combination of knowledge of the agenda and methods used and paying attention to the information that the media mostly ignores. Think like a military strategist, not a voter. Stop being so emotionally invested in the outcome. It's that emotional investment that turns off your critical, analytical thinking ability.

Nono, I'm sorry but you're not thinking like a military strategist. Waiting for outcomes to happen and then saying, "oh I told you so" does not make you a critical thinker. Saying Ginsberg will retire does not make you a critical thinker. You said Rand would win and squash the conservative movement, that didn't happen.

Making shotgun guesses at what could happen in the future and then bragging about being right and credit your military strategery thinking because one of your predictions came true, does not make you special. More than likely it makes you delusional.

You throw one knife at a target and your chances of hitting it are low. Throw 20 and your chances are much higher.

Sorry, you're not operating at a higher intellectual level than anybody else here on RPF who have spent the last decade obsessing over the shadow government.

UWDude
10-12-2018, 09:34 PM
devil
the name is fitting
Now outting himself as a true prophet.
Sure you are, dude.

UWDude
10-12-2018, 09:50 PM
It's not there because they already had a bloodbath in 2014 that held intact through 2016. Current numbers are post-bloodbath levels.

True. So you would expect at least a slowing in the bleeding.

Not even.

The censorship has backfired greatly.

Trump knew it was coming the whole time.
So he planned for it. With the military, and without the CIA
(except of course the loyalist operatives)

Kanye is more hated than loved by one demographic, and more loved than hated by another.
This is one of those shadow demographics. Trump understands his popularity with these groups was always low, but one was significantly lower than the other.
So, love, hate... how do they compliment each other?
The answer is before this.

Anna Kerenina, Tolstoy

Super-quick Synopsis:

Levin (protagonist) writes novels on "The Serbian question", some great question... if you were aristocrat Russian, ....in the mid to late 19th century.
One of the many points of Tolstoy's book, is how quickly Levin loses desire for everything, including his obsession with Russian geopolitics, when he meets Kitty, who he later marries. A few years later, after the honeymoon wore off, he found himself again, pondering great 19th century Russian geopolitical questions... ...until personal life again interrupts.

Trump is going for the hearts. He doesn't care about the minds.
And it is because he is all heart.

thoughtomator
10-12-2018, 10:00 PM
My current predictions aren't accommodated in this poll; the conventional wisdom is not taking the Kavanaugh factor into full account, probably because nothing of the like has been seen in modern US politics.

MN-8 just printed a +20R change between one month ago and today. TN Senate went from +6D to +14R before the latest Veritas scandal. WV Sen a D+8 lead evaporated even with Manchin voting to confirm. AZ Sen printed this week a +6R after printing +3D for months, and a major scandal just hit the Dem in the past few days. Shalala (a senior D party official) now in a dead heat in a +20 Clinton district.

The Washington Post printed the Blasey Ford article on 9/16 and it looks like that was the high water mark for Democratic chances, going downhill NOT when she was exposed weeks later but pretty much immediately, as in over next few days. So by and large people knew it was a hoax before she testified and were not fooled.

Ever since then: blowback. Shifts of +10R to +20R between early Sep and early Oct are popping up all over the place.

This is going to be a bloodbath for the Dems and I don't seem them holding onto their existing count under these conditions. They will lose more.

UWDude
10-12-2018, 10:25 PM
The blind spot of these buffoons, many of which are posters here, is they believe people in the alt media are "leaders". They think Trump is "brainwashing" people.

They do not understand, the people are flocking to their preferred choice of news.
A biological need of some people, to keep up on politics. Nicotine.
It is not because they want to be told how to think, it is because they want to be told what they already think.

They think they can shut down accounts like they are tv stations.
As if the internet is another mono-directional medium.
Information supply and demand. The more it is restricted, the more precious it becomes.

As if Trump is just
covfefe.

Aratus
10-12-2018, 10:30 PM
If I do not tally my own votes, this poll is not really
that much different than the previous one that closed.
Slightly more of us do think the GOP won't loose too many
seats in Congress, slightly less of us expect some form
of a Blue Wave to hit. It's 10 to 7 or 10 to 8, roughly.

Aratus
10-12-2018, 10:34 PM
I hedged my bets. I still think there is to be a Blue Wave
but 10 people expect no flip in the House at all. Seven of
us are more open to the idea nothing is in the bag at all.

timosman
10-18-2018, 08:47 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjUvfZj-Fm0

oyarde
10-18-2018, 08:51 PM
Poll says no flip

eleganz
10-19-2018, 05:36 PM
My prediction today 10/19/18 is Dems pick up 21 house seats. GOP maintain house.







RCP's current dem advantage is +26 seats today but a lot of races don't have polls recently done so I would say if the election happened today, Dems would pick up less than 15 seats.

If Dems win, I predict a lot of impeachment chatter but no actual impeachment.