Midterms - How Many House Seats Will The GOP Lose?

[r3volution 3.0]

The GOP currently has 235 seats, the Dems 193, with 7 vacancies.

218 are needed for a majority.

Vote and comment.

Below, for your viewing pleasure, are the latest polling data, trend chart, and forecast, compliments of RCP.

https://i.imgur.com/tguk3wY.png

https://i.imgur.com/t9PSIOl.png

https://i.imgur.com/27aRQqp.png

[r3volution 3.0]

For the record, since this is not a public poll, I'm going with 10-17.

I think the GOP will come close, losing maybe 15 or 16, but just barely keep the majority.

[RonZeplin]

Gridlock = MAGA

The more candidates Trump endorses, the more certain MAGA becomes.

[Anti Federalist]

I don't take part in polls or questions like this, since 2016.

It was a sure thing, as positive as the sun coming up in the morning, that Hillary would be next.

I thought so and said so, and ended up looking foolish.

It will be whatever it will be, polls and the voting process are so monkey fucked as to not be credible.

[KEEF]

I believe there was a meeting of the Neocon minds during today’s McCain ceremony to assure that the Machine can still keep power. Evidence in the number of jabs taken at MAGA during everyone’s eulogy speech while the media gushing over getting bipartisanship back into our country.

[oyarde]

Less than 11 1/2 .

[Swordsmyth]

I can only say that I don't believe the GOP will lose the house, I can't guess any more precisely than that, they might barely hold on or they might gain seats.

[r3volution 3.0]

I don't take part in polls or questions like this, since 2016.

It was a sure thing, as positive as the sun coming up in the morning, that Hillary would be next.

I thought so and said so, and ended up looking foolish.

It will be whatever it will be, polls and the voting process are so monkey fucked as to not be credible.

The polls in 2016 were pretty accurate, as they usually are.

What happened was that they tightened a lot in the last few weeks, having previously shown pantsuit a clear favorite.

The actual election results were mostly within the MoE of the final polls; remember, Trump barely squeaked it out.

Likewise, it's reasonable to assume that if the midterms were held today, the results would be close to the current polls.

Of course, the polls may change (though I personally doubt they'll change much, at least in a pro-GOP direction).

Apart from the polls, there's a very long-standing trend of the in-power party suffering in the midterms.

[Anti Federalist]

The polls in 2016 were pretty accurate, as they usually are.

It wasn't reported that way.


First things first: Hillary Clinton has a 70 percent chance of winning the election, according to both the FiveThirtyEight polls-only and polls-plus models. That’s up from a 65 percent chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign. Clinton’s projected margin of victory in the popular vote has increased to 3.5 percent from 2.9 percent.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clinton-gains-and-the-polls-magically-converge/

[r3volution 3.0]

It wasn't reported that way.

538's odds =/= polls.

Look at the actual polls on Real Clear Politics.

Nationally, and in almost every state, the polls were within the MoE.

[nikcers]

It could change at any moment, at the moment the GOP should gain seats. Especially if they use John McCain's death to guilt people into voting in the mid terms.

[UWDude]

LOL

Pugs gonna take it all.

then 11/11 parade.

[Anti Globalist]

Idk how many seats are going to be lost but I'm sure the republicans will keep the house.

[timosman]

It could change at any moment, at the moment the GOP should gain seats. Especially if they use John McCain's death to guilt people into voting in the mid terms.

rev 3.0 will be very unhappy. :cool:

[timosman]

I will vote if Rev 3.0 promises to change his avatar to a donkey for a year if None is the actual outcome in November. :D

[Grandmastersexsay]

The actual election results were mostly within the MoE of the final polls; remember, Trump barely squeaked it out.

304 to 227 electoral college votes. That's a lot better than barely squeaking by.

[timosman]

304 to 227 electoral college votes. That's a lot better than barely squeaking by.

But he lost the popular vote. :cool:

[TheCount]

More than none.

[Cleaner44]

I don't take part in polls or questions like this, since 2016.

It was a sure thing, as positive as the sun coming up in the morning, that Hillary would be next.

I thought so and said so, and ended up looking foolish.

It will be whatever it will be, polls and the voting process are so monkey $#@!ed as to not be credible.

Their polls are useless. This idea of a generic ballot is meaningless. People won't be voting on a generic ballot, they will be voting for their specific local representative. I chalk this whole the thing up to the media pushing a "fake it till you make it" mentality.

I suspect the Democrats will be disappointed when they fail to take back the House. Personally I am hoping the Republicans gain even 1 seat, just to destroy them mentally.

It seems to me that Democrats not only have been failing in their elections since 2010, but that they are even more out of step with the public than ever before.

They gave away the working class vote
They gave away being champions of the 1st Amendment
They appear to care more about foreigners than Americans


They have nothing to sell to the public beyond guilt and that has a very limited market. The African-American vote is eroding and former Democrats everywhere are choosing to #WalkAway.

I see the media selling the dream, just as they did for Hillary. Reality was harsh in 2016 and I suspect it will be again in 2018. People like having jobs and more money in their paychecks. Calling Republicans Nazis for 3 years isn't going to get the job done for the left... in my opinion.

[Anti Federalist]

538's odds =/= polls.

Look at the actual polls on Real Clear Politics.

Nationally, and in almost every state, the polls were within the MoE.

I understand your point and don't contest it, you're right, it was a squeaker.

But it wasn't being reported that way.

I could clog the board with 10,000 more headlines just like 538's that were reporting Hillary as a "sure thing".

And that kind of "reporting" swings polls.

[TheTexan]

My GOP sources tell me we are going to gain 11 seats this cycle. The MAGA wave is going strong :)

[oyarde]

My GOP sources tell me we are going to gain 11 seats this cycle. The MAGA wave is going strong :)

That is just as likely as losing a dozen .

[spudea]

I think they could lose ~10-15 due to the midterm curse but think Republican voters aren't gonna treat this like a midterm, more like a presidential election and turn out more than in the past.

[nikcers]

I think they could lose ~10-15 due to the midterm curse but think Republican voters aren't gonna treat this like a midterm, more like a presidential election and turn out more than in the past.

I could be wrong but -it looks like the mid terms will probably be rigged if you look at all the different narratives they are pushing they will blame Russia if they don't get the outcome they desire and might even blame Russia if they get the outcome they desire. Here are just a few that i found in 10 seconds, I am sure there are probably more on every political echo chamber and fake news outlet there is promoting this idea. I am just glad I don't have to think for myself, that would be stressful.


Facebook: warns of midterms election interference, fingers point to Russia


Homeland Security:Every US state must prepare for Russian election interference in midterms


CNN: More than half of American adults say they believe it's likely there will be Russian interference in November's midterm elections, (according to poll)


Trump: "I’m very concerned that Russia will be fighting very hard to have an impact on the upcoming Election. Based on the fact that no President has been tougher on Russia than me, they will be pushing very hard for the Democrats. They definitely don’t want Trump!"

[Krugminator2]

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2704/Which-party-will-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms



Democratic

DEM.HOUSEMAJ.2019
(https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4331/Will-the-Democratic-Party-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms)

68¢
68¢
67¢
33¢
32¢



https://az620379.vo.msecnd.net/images/Contracts/small_a775d35a-1b1b-4bc5-bde0-93ed6d03d6f3.png (https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4330/Will-the-Republican-Party-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms)
Republican

REP.HOUSEMAJ.2019
(https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4330/Will-the-Republican-Party-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms)


38¢



The Dems are the betting favorites.

[nikcers]

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2704/Which-party-will-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms



Democratic

DEM.HOUSEMAJ.2019
(https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4331/Will-the-Democratic-Party-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms)
68¢
68¢
67¢
33¢
32¢



https://az620379.vo.msecnd.net/images/Contracts/small_a775d35a-1b1b-4bc5-bde0-93ed6d03d6f3.png (https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4330/Will-the-Republican-Party-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms)
Republican

REP.HOUSEMAJ.2019
(https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4330/Will-the-Republican-Party-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms)

38¢



The Dems are the betting favorites.

Does that mean the end of tax cuts?

[Krugminator2]

Does that mean the end of tax cuts?


Doubt it. Repubs are favored to win the senate and Trump still can veto.

[TheCount]

I understand your point and don't contest it, you're right, it was a squeaker.

But it wasn't being reported that way.

I could clog the board with 10,000 more headlines just like 538's that were reporting Hillary as a "sure thing".

And that kind of "reporting" swings polls.

70% is not a sure thing.

[Krugminator2]

70% is not a sure thing.


538 and Nate Silver were outliers and by far the most accurate. As a side not it is ridiculous the ridicule Silver got from conservatives when his work was so much closer to correct than anyone else's. But AF's point was true for the prognosticators in general. Huffington Post's polling thing has Hillary Clinton at 100%. So many of those forecasters had it at 95% Hillary like Sam Wang. http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/08/final-mode-projections-clinton-323-ev-51-di-senate-seats-gop-house/

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

[nikcers]

538 and Nate Silver were outliers and by far the most accurate. But his point was true for the prognosticators in general. Huffington Post's polling thing has Hillary Clinton at 100%.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_us_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

That really begs the question because I like to gamble- if you have ever gambled before you know that shit happens no matter how improbable. That's why with polling i think there is a margin of error that basically says that the percentage is always approximate. Doesn't that mean that 100% isn't always 100%?

[Aratus]

I will vote if Rev 3.0 promises to change his avatar to a donkey for a year if None is the actual outcome in November. :D

If Pence becomes president in 2019 because Trump retires or is impeached & convicted,
Could you change your avatar to a donkey for six months after that point in time? On the
flip side of the coin, I will change my avatar to a donkey for a two years if Donald Trump's
Poll numbers by January of 2020 indicate he has at least a ONE IN FIVE chance at the GOP
NOMINATION!!! In other words, he has less than four GOP opponents and high poll numbers!

[oyarde]

I will ask Pence to use me for his Avatar

[Krugminator2]

That really begs the question because I like to gamble- if you have ever gambled before you know that $#@! happens no matter how improbable. That's why with polling i think there is a margin of error that basically says that the percentage is always approximate. Doesn't that mean that 100% isn't always 100%?

Yeah. I think it is part of the reason Nate Silver was a real world practitioner. He played poker for a living and understands risk and probabilities a lot better than all the people who have never had skin in the game.

And of course, Huffington Post is a joke publication and should be completely ignored.

[Aratus]

The Democrats mayhap gain 16 seats...
Just enuff to be 100% politically frustrating
And maybe enuff for a long & banal Senate Trial
Just a lil short of securely flipping the House.
The guy 60 Minutes profiled = Speaker

[Swordsmyth]

Their polls are useless. This idea of a generic ballot is meaningless. People won't be voting on a generic ballot, they will be voting for their specific local representative. I chalk this whole the thing up to the media pushing a "fake it till you make it" mentality.

I suspect the Democrats will be disappointed when they fail to take back the House. Personally I am hoping the Republicans gain even 1 seat, just to destroy them mentally.

It seems to me that Democrats not only have been failing in their elections since 2010, but that they are even more out of step with the public than ever before.


They gave away the working class vote



They gave away being champions of the 1st Amendment



They appear to care more about foreigners than Americans



They have nothing to sell to the public beyond guilt and that has a very limited market. The African-American vote is eroding and former Democrats everywhere are choosing to #WalkAway.

I see the media selling the dream, just as they did for Hillary. Reality was harsh in 2016 and I suspect it will be again in 2018. People like having jobs and more money in their paychecks. Calling Republicans Nazis for 3 years isn't going to get the job done for the left... in my opinion.
I look forward to hearing the lamentations of their women.

https://cdn2.btrstatic.com/pics/showpics/large/341227_bU7lDn12.jpg



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDYNVH0U3cs

[dannno]

I understand your point and don't contest it, you're right, it was a squeaker.



Donald J. Trump won the Electoral College (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/12/19/us/elections/electoral-college-results.html) with 304 votes compared to 227 votes for Hillary Clinton.

??

[dannno]

Nominee
George W. Bush (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Bush)
Al Gore (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Gore)




Party
Republican (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States))
Democratic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States))


Home state
Texas (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas)
Tennessee (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee)


Running mate
Dick Cheney (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Cheney)
Joe Lieberman (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Lieberman)


Electoral vote
271
266[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2000#cite_not e-2)


States carried
30
20 + DC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.)


Popular vote
50,456,002
50,999,897


Percentage
47.9%
48.4%




Squeaker

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/qkjqHsx5XVg/maxresdefault.jpg


https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Lw8J0rkAVs4/hqdefault.jpg


That's not a squeaker, this is a squeaker..

https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/2847590.main_image.jpg?strip=all





Nominee
George W. Bush (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Bush)
John Kerry (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kerry)




Party
Republican (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States))
Democratic (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States))


Home state
Texas (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas)
Massachusetts (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts)


Running mate
Dick Cheney (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Cheney)
John Edwards (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Edwards)


Electoral vote
286[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004#cite_not e-fecresults-2)
251[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004#cite_not e-fecresults-2)[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004#cite_not e-3)


States carried
31
19 + DC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.)


Popular vote
62,040,610
59,028,444


Percentage
50.7%
48.3%

[r3volution 3.0]

I understand your point and don't contest it, you're right, it was a squeaker.

But it wasn't being reported that way.

I could clog the board with 10,000 more headlines just like 538's that were reporting Hillary as a "sure thing".

And that kind of "reporting" swings polls.

I guess dicking around will cause people to be angry.

On the other hand, what kind of jackass is doing this.

[timosman]

I guess dicking around will cause people to be angry.

On the other hand, what kind of jackass is doing this.

:confused:

[r3volution 3.0]

304 to 227 electoral college votes. That's a lot better than barely squeaking by.

It's 235 that the GOP has now...

They meed 218.

[r3volution 3.0]

:confused:

:confused::confused:

[Aratus]

The DEMOCRATs need at least 220 HOUSE seats to have a comfortable flip?

[Cleaner44]

The number of voting seats in the House of Representatives is currently set at 435.

Republicans = 241
Democrats = 194

241-18=223
194+18=212

241-24=217
194+24=218

Poll is flawed. The difference between gaining 18 seats and taking the house is significant.

241+1 > 194+23

Democrats have to flip 24 seats or this election is a disaster for them. I don't think they will do it. I think they will fail... again.

P.S.
https://www.predictit.org/

[Aratus]

The number of voting seats in the House of Representatives is currently set at 435.

Republicans = 241
Democrats = 194

241-18=223
194+18=212

241-24=217
194+24=218

Poll is flawed. The difference between gaining 18 seats and taking the house is significant.

241+1 > 194+23

Democrats have to flip 24 seats or this election is a disaster for them. I don't think they will do it. I think they will fail... again.

P.S.
https://www.predictit.org/

EXCELLENT POINT. We all look like idiots, we could have done the math.
Impeachment hinges on getting Republicans to turn on Trump if there is
not a HOUSE flip. It was about to happen to Nixon but he cut it all short
by resigning. I think DJT is going to see GOP moderates 'betray' him as
things slowly get worse. Technically "Neo-Cons" are Reagan Democrats.

[Aratus]

A loss of 20 seats places the Democrats within "spitting" distance of a House flip
but it might hand them the means to get an impeachment on DJT. Especially if all
GOP party unity dissolves, the Republican Party may fragment over Trump's guilt.

[r3volution 3.0]

The number of voting seats in the House of Representatives is currently set at 435.

Republicans = 241
Democrats = 194

241-18=223
194+18=212

241-24=217
194+24=218

Poll is flawed. The difference between gaining 18 seats and taking the house is significant.

241+1 > 194+23

Democrats have to flip 24 seats or this election is a disaster for them. I don't think they will do it. I think they will fail... again.

P.S.
https://www.predictit.org/

No, the GOP presently has 235 sears, not 241.

[Aratus]

No, the GOP presently has 235 sears, not 241.

TWENTY SEATs GOING DEMOCRAT CREATES THE SENATE TRIAL ZOO.

[r3volution 3.0]

TWENTY SEATs GOING DEMOCRAT CREATES THE SENATE TRIAL ZOO.

Oh, with the Dems taking a couple dozen seats, things will definitely get zoo-ey.

[Aratus]

In order to not be backlashed on by the voters, they NEED some GOP folk to vote with them.

[eleganz]

At this time, none of the polls matter because the news cycle and what is released in October will dictate the outcome. Democrats do have a lot of momentum right now and the GOP has a massive uphill battle. This mid term is basically yes Trump or no Trump and if Trump wants to win, he essentially has to will it into being.


I don't think the dems have any tricks up their sleeve because they play everything the second its available. The Manafort and Cohen sagas have dried up, Avennatti and Stormy are almost completely forgotten about. I do believe Trump/Sessions will likely break some Clinton/FBI/DOJ collusion stories around October. I used to think that Sessions was being quiet because of blackmail but I think blackmail is too conspiratorial, the simpler explanation is the former and thats why Trump was attacking Sessions on Twitter, just part of a deception play.

That explanation plus every time I counted Trump out, he proved me wrong so I'm going with full GOP control this Nov. The guy knows whats at stake, I think he will campaign even harder than 2016 because holding the house means everything. If I were in Trump's position, I'd campaign to my last breath, there is no other choice.

Who else here thinks that if he gets the China deal done by midterms, its over?

[Cleaner44]

No, the GOP presently has 235 sears, not 241.

No, the GOP presently has 236 seats.

The Democrats currently have 193 seats.

There are 6 seats vacant.

http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/cong.aspx

[Cleaner44]

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2704/Which-party-will-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms



Democratic

DEM.HOUSEMAJ.2019
(https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4331/Will-the-Democratic-Party-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms)

68¢
68¢
67¢
33¢
32¢



https://az620379.vo.msecnd.net/images/Contracts/small_a775d35a-1b1b-4bc5-bde0-93ed6d03d6f3.png (https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4330/Will-the-Republican-Party-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms)
Republican

REP.HOUSEMAJ.2019
(https://www.predictit.org/Contract/4330/Will-the-Republican-Party-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms)


38¢



The Dems are the betting favorites.

Someone here introduced me to PredicitIt back in 2016. The Democrat Hillary Clinton was the betting favorite at .80 to Trump at .20 when I bought my shares. Easy money.

It seems to me that there are a ton of stupid liberals there that are buying whatever BS the media is selling them. Oddly we even have people here doing the same thing.

[Swordsmyth]

You often here the phrase “The presidents party loses an average of 32 House seats in their first midterm”
And because of this, we are to assume that the Republicans will automatically lose the House since the Democrats only need 23 seats to take the House back.
However, after further research by our team- we realized those averages weren’t exactly true. Democrat presidents first midterms have been much worse historically than Republican presidents first midterms- much worse. We did an analysis on every presidents first midterm since WWII, and averaged out how each party has done over time. Here were the results.
https://etholytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Screen-Shot-2018-09-17-at-7.41.30-PM-300x170.png
On average, Democrat presidents lose 35.2 seats in the House. Republican presidents only lose 11.2 seats in the House in their first midterm on average. Again, this is every president since WWII, so this is a very extensive analysis. We studied all first after each president was elected. Which means, Gerald Ford didn’t ever have a midterm since he wasn’t elected, and Harry Truman didn’t have his first midterm until 1950- since he was first elected in 1948.
So when we hear the old saying “the President always loses the House”- this has been much more hard on Democrat presidents. The worst first midterm we’ve ever seen from a President on this list was President Obama in 2010. As for the Republicans, their last 2 opening midterm have been rather quiet- losing only 7 seats in 1990 and actually gaining 8 seats in 2002 (although much of that has to do with 9/11). But even if we toss out 2002 because it was an anomaly due to 9/11, the Republicans average loss would still only 16.0 seats in the House. Not the 23 seats the Democrats need at a minimum.
Here’s one final thought: The Democrats need 23 seats at a minimum to claim the House back. Only once since WWII have the Republicans ever lost more than 23 seats in their first midterm- and it was 26 seats in 1982. Based on these odds, the Democrats would need something historic to take back the House.

https://etholytics.com/house-seat-loss-by-presidents-party-has-been-inflated-by-democrat-presidents/

[aGameOfThrones]

I just want the republicans to win for the Liberal Meltdown. :D

[Aratus]

Swordsmyth... We both know DJT is not politics as usual. There are no rules. Ignore statistics.

[Aratus]

Anything may happen between now and November.
He may see a rebuke in terms of flipped seats or he
may get very lucky and see minimal change as it is.

[timosman]

Paging devil21 ...

[Aratus]

The poll is closed. Do we need a new one on this topic?

[Pauls' Revere]

how many house seats would the DEMs need to lose for the party to die off?

[Pauls' Revere]

I just want the republicans to win for the Liberal Meltdown. :D

Right, the show is worth the price of admission.

[specsaregood]

Right, the show is worth the price of admission.

When I tell people that I voted for Trump just for the laughs and that it has paid dividends, they get more upset than if I said I voted for Trump because I liked and agreed with him. "This isn't a joke, this is the presidency!" "Oh, but that is where we disagree."

They usually go down the line of saying, "But he has embarrassed and put shame on the role of the president!" "Good."

[Anti Globalist]

With the confirmation of Kavanaugh the GOP will lose even less seats.

[Pauls' Revere]

When I tell people that I voted for Trump just for the laughs and that it has paid dividends, they get more upset than if I said I voted for Trump because I liked and agreed with him. "This isn't a joke, this is the presidency!" "Oh, but that is where we disagree."

They usually go down the line of saying, "But he has embarrassed and put shame on the role of the president!" "Good."

I just might vote him come 2020 if it means the Lib's will burn their capital Berkeley. LOL

[Swordsmyth]

The poll is closed. Do we need a new one on this topic?

One that doesn't close before election day.

[nbhadja]

I can't believe that Ron Paul supporters of all people ate up the fake new's lies about there being a blue wave. There will be a red wave next month and the GOP will win seats. I guess some people only see the truth when they want to and go back to sheeple mode after that.

[timosman]

I can't believe that Ron Paul supporters of all people ate up the fake new's lies about there being a blue wave. There will be a red wave next month and the GOP will win seats. I guess some people only see the truth when they want to and go back to sheeple mode after that.

Are you accusing Aratus of being irrational? :confused:

[specsaregood]

When I tell people that I voted for Trump just for the laughs and that it has paid dividends
--snip--

1049063520783032320

dividends dude.