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View Full Version : Chinese leaders ‘absolutely confused’ by Trump’s demands on trade




Zippyjuan
06-23-2018, 12:33 PM
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/23/trump-china-trade-confusion-635865


Donald Trump has called on China to capitulate to U.S. demands on trade. The problem is nobody knows exactly what Trump actually wants — including the Chinese.

One week, he condemns threats to American national security interests and the next, agrees to lift a ban on doing business with Chinese telecom giant ZTE. He rails about the U.S. trade deficit with China, then dismisses Beijing’s offer — negotiated by his own officials — to boost its purchases of U.S. goods by billions of dollars.

Beyond the feints and jabs, he’s raised so many different issues that it’s hard to know what his priorities might really be.

The strategy is straight out of “The Art of the Deal”: “I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I’m after.” But some doubt that approach translates to negotiating with a global superpower. By all accounts, it has left the Chinese increasingly mystified about what Trump really wants at a pivotal moment when the world’s two largest economies are teetering on the edge of sustained trade warfare.

“They’re absolutely confused,” Derek Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, said of the Chinese.

Without clear demands, he argued, Beijing is unlikely to offer much. “The concession has to get them something. And they don’t know what they’re going to get because the U.S. doesn’t have a strategy.”

Chinese officials, for their part, are increasingly blunt about their frustration.

“We appeal our American interlocutors to be credible and consistent,” Li Kexin, minister at the Chinese embassy in Washington, said in a speech Tuesday at the Institute for China-America Studies. “When you agree, you mean it.”

And on Friday, Gao Feng, spokesman for China’s Ministry of Commerce, criticized the U.S. as “capricious.”

Trump’s aggressive approach is a reversal from more than a decade of U.S. policy toward China, which involved negotiating on a suite of business issues every year to make incremental progress. Any gains were secured largely by convincing Beijing that a more open economy was ultimately in its best interests — a tactic that worked very slowly and only to a point.

The president’s willingness to antagonize China more directly has largely been embraced by the U.S. companies and workers desperate for quicker and more substantial results. But veterans of international negotiations are skeptical that negotiations will succeed unless they’re more clearly focused.

“Yes, they have a plan. No, I don’t think it will work,” said Bill Reinsch, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The plan is always push harder, demand everything and offer nothing.”

The underlying structure of China’s economy is the cause of many of U.S. companies’ most intractable complaints, something that won’t change in a matter of weeks or even months.

eijing makes U.S. companies jump through more hoops than domestic companies. It conducts cyber espionage and steals U.S. trade secrets and intellectual property, like patents. And the Chinese government subsidizes its companies on a grand scale, guaranteeing that they can sell goods below a market-set price.

All of these policies have been identified by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative as the impetus for new tariffs set to be imposed on $50 billion in Chinese goods. But across the ideological spectrum, China watchers are worried the president’s laser-like focus on the trade deficit may lead him to lose focus on seeking structural changes to the Chinese nonmarket system.

“This is a multiyear process that involves a lot of pain,” Scissors said. “If you don’t want to face the pain and take the time, then don’t do it.”

Chinese officials have similarly cautioned that this negotiation may take years.

“Let’s talk about it, no matter on trade deficit or structural issues,” Li said.

Adding to the confusion, senior administration officials have said they don’t know exactly what Trump will decide to say or do on trade at any given moment. That uncertainty has led advisers to compete for his attention in a bid to sway him, which leads to varied tactics and mixed messaging.

Officials like National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow have indicated the goal is to knock down barriers to U.S. exports, such as tariffs. But under the rules of the World Trade Organization, China is bound to give the United States the same tariff treatment as every other WTO member, making negotiations on the reduction of duties difficult.

Meanwhile, the new U.S. tariffs, aimed at extracting concessions from the Chinese, were designed largely as a response to intellectual property theft, with a nod to China’s policy of propping up companies in particular sectors.




Beyond uncertainty about the administration’s goals, U.S. business groups also aren’t pleased with the approach taken by the administration — imposing a lot of new tariffs — in a bid to spur change.

“One way we’ve been putting it lately is: right question, wrong answer,” said Josh Kallmer, senior vice president of global policy at the Information Technology Industry Council.

“We’ve actually been really supportive of the administration for undertaking the investigation and raising this to a level of seriousness that past administrations have not,” added Kallmer, a former career official at the USTR with experience in negotiating with China.

But “the path they’ve gone on, we’ve found it to be pretty counterproductive and bordering on irresponsible,” he added, saying tariffs are merely going to hurt American standards of living by raising prices.

More at link.

enhanced_deficit
06-23-2018, 01:29 PM
Those demands came a day after this Nk-China meeting.. so this might not be all just about 'trade' per se.

"NK's supreme leader is on a diplomatic peace talks summits spree it seems and he doesn't know how to quit:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPAUpJIn7ww"

From: Will North Korea's Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un win Nobel Peace Prize? (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?522565-Will-North-Korea-s-Supreme-Leader-Kim-Jong-Un-win-Nobel-Peace-Prize&)

spudea
06-23-2018, 01:48 PM
More garbage. The singular Chinese official cited expressed frustration, not confusion. In order to get their headline, they site an academic that noone in the world has heard of and should never hear from again because clearly he is confused.

The admin strategy and demands are crystal clear. China must lower trade barriers and buy more US products in order to lower the deficit. Until a strong commitment to that is agreed, tariffs go on.

Swordsmyth
06-23-2018, 04:08 PM
They are confused because it never occurred to them that mere mortals would expect to be treated as equals to "The Middle Kingdom" between earth and heaven and superior to all others.

timosman
06-23-2018, 05:00 PM
They are confused because it never occurred to them that mere mortals would expect to be treated as equals to "The Middle Kingdom" between earth and heaven and superior to all others.

They got a pretty good handle on Obama and Clinton and now out of sudden Trump shows up and wreaks havoc.

Krugminator2
06-23-2018, 05:23 PM
I don't like tariffs at all. I don't like all the manufacturing jobs arguments. I am a pure free trader. I am for unilateral free trade, but there are trade agreements in place that China actively cheats on.

I think the right answer may be to sanction the hell out of China. They are a rogue state that is literally aiding and actively encouraging the theft of US property. It is past ridiculous.

From today.
1010107724070178816

Here is a good article by a very reasonable person. https://www.forbes.com/sites/cblock/2018/03/13/yes-china-does-cheat-in-trade-the-rest-of-the-world-needs-to-wake-up/#32a315866ed2

Here is the trailer to a documentary I watched on all the Chinese scam companies from a few years ago. China was putting short sellers in prison without trial for trying to point out these frauds. China is a third world shithole country.

Trump kind of \ is right about China stealing from the US citizens just not from trade.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55892jT06aI

oyarde
06-23-2018, 09:09 PM
Everyone knows not to trust the chinese.

Danke
06-23-2018, 10:38 PM
Everyone knows not to trust the chinese.


Nor their descendants, it is a genetic trait.

Zippyjuan
06-23-2018, 10:40 PM
Ron Paul- Trump Tariffs Unconstitutional (See about three minutes in- first bit is about the budget spending bill) (Note- President can only get away with if it if he can claim it is due to "national emergency" which is being very heavily stretched these days- everything is a "national emergency")


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8meIU4RLa8

Zippyjuan
06-23-2018, 10:43 PM
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2018/march/12/tariffs-are-not-the-answer/


Tariffs Are Not the Answer

President Trump’s planned 25 percent tariff on steel imports and 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports may provide a temporary boost for those industries, but the tariffs will do tremendous long-term damage to the American and global economies. Tariffs raise the price of, and reduce demand for, imported goods. Tariffs ensure the preferences of politicians, instead of the preferences of consumers, to determine how resources are allocated. This reduces economic efficiency and living standards.

Some justify these economic inefficiencies as being worth it to save American jobs. This ignores how tariffs increase costs of production for industries reliant on imported materials to produce their products. These increased costs lead to job losses in those industries. For example, President Trump’s proposed steel tariff could cost nearly 40,000 jobs in the steel-dependent auto manufacturing industry. Tariffs also cause job losses in industries reliant on exports. This is especially true if — as is likely to be the case — other countries respond to President Trump’s actions by increasing tariffs on US products.

Many of President Trump’s critics do not themselves support true free trade, which is the voluntary exchange of goods and services across borders. Instead, they support the managed (by government) trade of NAFTA and the World Trade Organization (WTO). NAFTA and the WTO promote world government and crony capitalism, not free markets. Any libertarian or free-market conservative who thinks the WTO promotes economic liberty should remember that the WTO once ordered Congress to raise taxes!

Foreign manufacturers may make convenient scapegoats for the problems facing US industry. However, the truth is that most of the problems plaguing American businesses stem from the US government. American businesses are burdened by thousands of federal regulations controlling every aspect of their operations. The tax system also burdens businesses. Until last year’s tax reform bill, the US had the highest corporate tax rates in the developed world. The tax reform bill lowered corporate taxes, but the US corporate tax rate is still higher than that of many other developed countries.



More at link.

Swordsmyth
06-23-2018, 10:51 PM
Ron Paul- Trump Tariffs Unconstitutional (See about three minutes in- first bit is about the budget spending bill) (Note- President can only get away with if it if he can claim it is due to "national emergency" which is being very heavily stretched these days- everything is a "national emergency")


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8meIU4RLa8

Maybe after we plug the hole in the hull and pump the bilges we should get around to putting the deck chairs back where they belong instead of where previous administrations arranged them.

Swordsmyth
06-23-2018, 10:55 PM
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2018/march/12/tariffs-are-not-the-answer/



More at link.
Ron is wrong, other countries aren't going to stop waging trade warfare against us until we fight back, not fighting back has hollowed out our economy and destroyed our middle class.

Rising wealth inequality between ordinary Americans and the crony capitalists that have benefited from collaborating in the trade wars and their camp followers is making socialism dangerously popular as all of America is turned into a giant welfare ghetto.

Danke
06-23-2018, 11:03 PM
I don't like tariffs at all. I don't like all the manufacturing jobs arguments. I am a pure free trader. I am for unilateral free trade, but there are trade agreements in place that China actively cheats on.

I think the right answer may be to sanction the hell out of China. They are a rogue state that is literally aiding and actively encouraging the theft of US property. It is past ridiculous.

From today.
1010107724070178816

Here is a good article by a very reasonable person. https://www.forbes.com/sites/cblock/2018/03/13/yes-china-does-cheat-in-trade-the-rest-of-the-world-needs-to-wake-up/#32a315866ed2

Here is the trailer to a documentary I watched on all the Chinese scam companies from a few years ago. China was putting short sellers in prison without trial for trying to point out these frauds. China is a third world shithole country.

Trump kind of \ is right about China stealing from the US citizens just not from trade.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55892jT06aI

https://flixtor.to/watch/movie/26585322/the-china-hustle

nikcers
06-23-2018, 11:09 PM
Ron is wrong, other countries aren't going to stop waging trade warfare against us until we fight back, not fighting back has hollowed out our economy and destroyed our middle class.

Rising wealth inequality between ordinary Americans and the crony capitalists that have benefited from collaborating in the trade wars and their camp followers is making socialism dangerously popular as all of America is turned into a giant welfare ghetto.

Theres no reason to stop using the Chinese trade cheaters narrative. You can even double down when one of those Tech unicorns blow up. A lot of people are betting big on Apple, they are a really popular company and the Chinese government have already gave them the axe a few times already.

Zippyjuan
06-23-2018, 11:32 PM
Ron is wrong, other countries aren't going to stop waging trade warfare against us until we fight back, not fighting back has hollowed out our economy and destroyed our middle class.

Rising wealth inequality between ordinary Americans and the crony capitalists that have benefited from collaborating in the trade wars and their camp followers is making socialism dangerously popular as all of America is turned into a giant welfare ghetto.

That isn't Canada or China's fault.

Swordsmyth
06-23-2018, 11:37 PM
That isn't Canada or China's fault.

Yes it is, it is also Mexico's fault and Germany's fault and the list goes on and on.
Most of all it is the fault of past administrations that made the bad deals.

timosman
06-23-2018, 11:40 PM
Yes it is, it is also Mexico's fault and Germany's fault and the list goes on and on.
Most of all it is the fault of past administrations that made the bad deals.

NEWSFLASH: We've been electing mostly morons.:cool:

Swordsmyth
06-23-2018, 11:42 PM
NEWSFLASH: We've been electing mostly morons traitors.:cool:

Fixed it, the morons are in the minority in D.C.

spudea
06-24-2018, 02:34 PM
1010978975391322112

Zippyjuan
06-24-2018, 02:35 PM
1010978975391322112

Will the US remove all of their trade barriers? (everybody including the US plays this game).

Swordsmyth
06-24-2018, 03:49 PM
Will the US remove all of their trade barriers? (everybody including the US plays this game).

We should but we have less to remove than anyone else.

Zippyjuan
06-24-2018, 04:05 PM
We should but we have less to remove than anyone else.

Actually we are about average. China is above average and Mexico a bit higher but we are pretty much the same as our other major trading partners.

What we charged on the average import from selected countries- orange is by dollar value of imports, blue is by dollar value of the tariffs we collect on them:

https://sc.cnbcfm.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/files/2016/12/06/TariffsChart2-01.png


Some countries pay close to zero overall, while others pay an average of 7 percent or higher, depending on individual trade agreements and the goods they export. Last year, total tariffs collected came to $34 billion out of $2.2 trillion in imports, or about $100 for every person in the U.S., according to a CNBC analysis of data from the U.S. International Trade Commission.


Tariffs on China and Mexico could cost about $1,000 per American per year.

Swordsmyth
06-24-2018, 04:31 PM
Actually we are about average. China is above average and Mexico a bit higher but we are pretty much the same as our other major trading partners.

What we charged on the average import from selected countries- orange is by dollar value of imports, blue is by dollar value of the tariffs we collect on them:

https://sc.cnbcfm.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/files/2016/12/06/TariffsChart2-01.png
Cherry picked statistics.

Zippyjuan
06-24-2018, 04:39 PM
Cherry picked statistics.

Can you provide other figures?

More extensive list of countries: https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/USA/Year/LTST/TradeFlow/Import/Partner/by-country

Swordsmyth
06-24-2018, 05:45 PM
Can you provide other figures?

More extensive list of countries: https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/USA/Year/LTST/TradeFlow/Import/Partner/by-country

I don't intend to waste my time on you, the truth is out there and has been demonstrated before.

devil21
06-24-2018, 08:03 PM
Bs article. First, Zippy posted it so that's strike #1. Second, Chinese officials and US officials have been meeting and there's no confusion between them since they all work together at those upper levels so that's strike #2. Third, Trump's public job is to keep the American sheep confused, not foreign governments, and he's doing a workmanlike effort at it so that's strike #3.

Zippyjuan
06-24-2018, 08:35 PM
I don't intend to waste my time on you, the truth is out there and has been demonstrated before.

I see. You don't have any. Thanks anyhow.

Swordsmyth
06-24-2018, 08:37 PM
I see. You don't have any. Thanks anyhow.
I could get some but you don't deserve the effort.

Zippyjuan
06-24-2018, 08:44 PM
I could get some but you don't deserve the effort.

It was worth the effort to respond to every post I made.

Gumba of Liberty
06-24-2018, 08:52 PM
Will the US remove all of their trade barriers? (everybody including the US plays this game).

You can’t just remove tariffs. Corporate Subsidies must be removed simultaneously. If you don’t remove subsidies everything remains artificially manipulated and you get massive unemployment in the nation without the subsidies - just look at what NAFTA did to the Mexican Farmer.