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Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 02:09 PM
Trade is very complicated. It depends on what you count. Do you include goods a country like Canada gets from other countries and then ships to the US? Do you include services? We import oil from them but then refine the oil into products like gasoline and ship it back to them. Products move back and forth with one country adding something and sending it back or even on to another country which can happen many times before a consumer gets a final good to purchase.

https://www.ft.com/content/1d8a46e8-2876-11e8-b27e-cc62a39d57a0


Does the US have a trade deficit with Canada?

Donald Trump loves to hate trade deficits. And he loves to hate what he claims is the US trade deficit with Canada. The problem is that’s something Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau denies having.*

The latest flare-up came in a presidential tweet on Wednesday, after it was reported that Mr Trump simply made up the claim about the deficit in a meeting with Mr Trudeau. “I had no idea, I just said ‘you’re wrong’,” Mr Trump recounted to attendees at a fundraising dinner this week, according to a transcript reported by the Washington Post.

The tweet prompted a quick retort from pundits in Washington that US trade data showed the US had a surplus, not a deficit, with Canada.*

But it turns out things are not that simple. It depends on whose data you rely on and what you call a trade deficit.*

Here are three points:

Yes, US trade data show that the US had a trade surplus with Canada last year
According to figures released by the US Commerce Department last week the US in 2017 had a trade surplus in goods and services of $2.8bn.*

But that was largely thanks to a $25.9bn US surplus in services, which range from financial services to tourism. That offset a $23.1bn deficit in goods, which is what Mr Trump has tended to focus on.*

The overall surplus was also down from $7.7bn in 2016, though the US trade representative’s office complicates things by putting the 2016 surplus at $12.5bn, underscoring the existence of varying methodologies even within the US government.

Canada’s own trade data appear to prove Mr Trump’s claim

This is where things get interesting. There is actually a very real discrepancy between US and Canadian trade data, which show Canada running a much larger surplus in goods with the US than US data does.*

And if you take Canadian data at face value, Mr Trump appears to be right.*

According to its official balance of payments statistics, Canada last year had a goods and services surplus with the US of C$26.8bn (in US dollars, $20.5bn).

Canada’s official trade data show a much larger deficit in goods of*C$89.2bn (US$68.3bn at today’s exchange rate). But that picture is complicated by the question of re-exports, or goods from third countries that are passing through Canada on their way to the US (which is something US officials argue distorts their data as well).

Canada does have a trade deficit in services with the US, however. Last year it was worth C$13.7bn.

Economists really wish Trump didn’t care about this

There are few things that annoy economists more than President Trump’s obsession with trade deficits or his conviction that he can reduce them via his embrace of protectionism.

A country’s trade balance is the result of many different things, ranging from the value of its currency to its standing as an investment destination in the world. Macroeconomic policy, economists point out, often has a bigger impact on trade balances than trade policy.

Traditional trade data are also bad at reflecting the realities of the global economy today. In a world of global supply chains where imports of parts often leave countries as value-added exports of final products, and services are an increasingly important and misunderstood component, old fashioned trade data just doesn’t cut the mustard. That is why economists at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have been working for years on data that better reflect the value-added trade in goods around the world.*

The US also has a unique relationship with its trade balance because of its position in the world. The fact that the dollar is a reserve currency and that US capital markets attract foreign investors is one driver of the deficit. Ironically, the tax cuts that Mr Trump championed — which will increase the US’s fiscal deficit and the US government’s need to borrow to fund it — are likely to have more of an impact on the trade deficit in 2018 than any trade policy moves.*

Another deficit driver is the fact that US consumers save less than those in China and other countries and have an insatiable appetite for things like cheap consumer electronics.*

A narrowing of the trade deficit also tends to be a sign of bad economic times in the US. The last time the US deficit narrowed sharply was in 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis.*The last time the US ran a*trade surplus with the world was 1975.

And finally: Mr Trump’s own metrics aren’t going his way. The US trade deficit actually increased by 12.1 per cent in his first year in office — something he has regularly declined to mention.*

FSP-Rebel
06-11-2018, 02:16 PM
Tell that to our dairy farmers that are getting hit w/ 270% tariffs. Stay out of the weeds w/ the MSM fantasy stats.

timosman
06-11-2018, 02:19 PM
Zippy, a lonely voice of reason on RPF. :cool:

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 02:32 PM
Tell that to our dairy farmers that are getting hit w/ 270% tariffs. Stay out of the weeds w/ the MSM fantasy stats.

The US also protects our own dairy with price supports which has led to the real problem- over-production. Canada tries to limit supplies.

https://www.realagriculture.com/2018/02/u-s-dairy-subsidies-equal-73-percent-of-producer-returns-says-new-report/


U.S. dairy subsidies equal 73 percent of producer returns, says new report

Comparing government support for Canadian versus American dairy farmers is not a simple black and white process. While Canada’s dairy sector operates under a regulated supply management system, the U.S. government’s support for its dairy farmers is less direct.

Support, in its various forms, equaled 73 percent of U.S. dairy farmers’ market returns in 2015, according to a report published by a Canadian trade consulting firm on Thursday.

The 588-page study by Grey, Clark, Shih and Associates — commissioned by Dairy Farmers of Canada (DFC) — says the American government contributed around $22.2 billion in direct and indirect subsidies to the dairy sector in 2015.

“The support is completely ignored,” he said. “When it comes to farm support, the U.S. has the deepest pockets; deeper even than the European Union. Our study provides detail nationally, and on a state basis, the losses to U.S. dairy farmers. USDA data reveals that for more than a decade, U.S. farm gate prices for milk fail to cover costs of production.”

Based solely on the USDA’s national average farm-gate price and national average costs of production, Clark says American dairy farmers lost money every year from 2005 to 2016.

The report figures support granted to U.S. dairy farmers in 2015 represented approximately C$0.35 per litre — almost three-quarters of producers’ revenue.

When you subsidize things, you tend to get too much of it.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/got-milk-too-much-of-it-say-us-dairy-farmers-2017-05-21


Got Milk? Too much of it, say U.S. dairy farmers

U.S. dairy farmers' big bet on global demand for milk is souring.

The industry was in trouble long before a trade squabble with Canada last month that reduced demand for ultrafiltered milk, a cheese ingredient. Dairy farmers fear a spat that has jeopardized roughly $150 million in sales for Wisconsin, New York and Minnesota producers is just a prelude to disruptions to come if President Donald Trump renegotiates the North American Free Trade Agreement as promised.

"There was a perfect storm," said Jaime Castaneda, senior vice president of trade policy at the National Milk Producers Federation.

Dairy farmers aggressively expanded their herds three years ago when milk prices were driven up by growing demand from middle-class consumers in North America, Asia and other markets. By March, there were 9.4 million commercial dairy cows in the U.S., a 20-year high, according to the Agriculture Department.

But China, Russia, Venezuela and other importers scaled back their dairy purchasing in recent years due to domestic troubles. The European Union, meanwhile, greatly increased its dairy production after lifting 30-year-old quotas in 2015. Then came a world-wide surge in agricultural production that has pushed down prices for grains and meat as well as for dairy.

The dollar has also been on a multiyear climb, making U.S. exports less competitive. Milk prices have plummeted by a third in the past two years, USDA data shows. The value of U.S. dairy exports fell to $4.8 billion last year, down 50% from 2014.

Milk prices in March stood at $17.30 per hundred pounds, the USDA said, down $1.20 from a month earlier. That industry benchmark is an average of prices farmers receive and is based on a variety of dairy products including butter, cheese and skim milk powder.

Commodities markets like dairy are prone to booms and busts because of the long lead time to ramp up supply. But the current glut -- and the accompanying downswing in exports -- may pose one of the biggest challenges yet to the U.S. dairy industry.

"A lot relies on exports, and that's why swings are such a big deal," said Ben Laine, an economist at CoBank Acb, an agriculture cooperative bank. "That's where any surplus goes."

The glut is likely to grow this spring, the most productive time of the year as temperatures rise and days grow longer. An unusually mild winter started this year's milking season months early at some dairies, further contributing to the milk crush.

"You can't turn the cows off," said Ken Nobis, president of a dairy cooperative in Michigan, where the busy season started three months early.



Meanwhile, U.S. dairy products are piling up. The U.S. has more than 800 million pounds of American cheese in reserve, the most since 1984, according to the USDA. The amount of butter in reserve totals 272 million pounds, the most since 1994. Some U.S. farmers are dumping millions of pounds of excess milk onto fields. In the Midwest and Northeast, nearly 78 million gallons of milk have been dumped so far this year, up 86% from the same period last year.

Lawmakers from Wisconsin and New York are asking the USDA to buy excess cheese again. Last year the agency spent $20 million to purchase cheese from private inventories for food banks and pantries.

The USDA already spent all authorized funds to buy up excess dairy this fiscal year, but the new request is under consideration, an agency spokeswoman said.

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 02:34 PM
Maybe we should try what DJTvsg suggested and end all tariffs, barriers and subsidies.

FSP-Rebel
06-11-2018, 02:38 PM
W/o the need for a long-winded rebuttal rant, the point is to make the trade sequence a lot more fair and threatening tariffs to reduce tariffs worked on China. On the domestic front, supply and demand is gonna dictate the profits. I've never been a fan of these farmers' associations that love their subsidies.

shakey1
06-11-2018, 02:40 PM
When you subsidize things, you tend to get too much of it.



This much is true.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 03:13 PM
Politically, ending farm subsidies would cause large amounts of dairies (and other farmers who supply their feed) to go out of business but then supply would shrink and consumers would face higher prices for dairy products. It could mean shortages of dairy during drought years (and again higher prices in response to that scarcity).

oyarde
06-11-2018, 03:21 PM
I support abolishing the USDA and subsidies .

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 03:28 PM
Politically, ending farm subsidies would cause large amounts of dairies (and other farmers who supply their feed) to go out of business but then supply would shrink and consumers would face higher prices for dairy products. It could mean shortages of dairy during drought years (and again higher prices in response to that scarcity).

Your kind always claims the sky will fall if the market is allowed to work.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 03:31 PM
Your kind always claims the sky will fall if the market is allowed to work.

Protecting these over-producing dairy farms is exactly why Trump says he want to impose more tariffs on Canada. It is a matter of "national security". (The president would need Congress to approve any tariffs unless he uses that claim of national security).

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 03:32 PM
Protecting these over-producing dairy farms is exactly why Trump says he want to impose more tariffs on Canada. It is a matter of "national security". (The president would need Congress to approve any tariffs unless he uses that claim of national security).

Then why did he suggest ending subsidies?

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 03:33 PM
Then why did he suggest ending subsidies?

Trump says a lot of things which contradict previous statements.

timosman
06-11-2018, 03:34 PM
I support abolishing the USDA and subsidies .

Abolishing subsidies would end the economy as we know it.:cool:

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 03:36 PM
Trump says a lot of things which contradict previous statements.

And you are incapable of understanding the method to his madness.

oyarde
06-11-2018, 03:36 PM
Abolishing subsidies would end the economy as we know it.:cool:
Would not bother me a bit .

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 03:40 PM
Protecting these over-producing dairy farms is exactly why Trump says he want to impose more tariffs on Canada. It is a matter of "national security". (The president would need Congress to approve any tariffs unless he uses that claim of national security).

The Financial times advocates free markets and is in favour of globalisation. They should love Trump.


Trump said his ultimate goal was the elimination of all trade duties.
"Ultimately that's what you want," he said. "You want a tariff free. You want no barriers. And you want no subsidies. Because you have some cases where countries are subsidizing industries and that's not fair."

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/09/politics/trump-g7-tariffs-trade/index.html

This is called bargaining from a position of superiority.


"I will always protect Canadian workers and Canadian interests," Trudeau said.

When Trudeau says it the progressives salivate at his leadership abilities. When Trump does it WRT American workers and Americans interests he's a nationalist fascist. Lol.

oyarde
06-11-2018, 03:40 PM
I support abolishing the USDA and all subsidies . The free market will determine the real value of a gallon of milk , raisins etc Overproduction will be halted and there will be more diversity .

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 03:44 PM
And you are incapable of understanding the method to his madness.

"Over promise, under deliver".

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 03:46 PM
The Financial times advocates free markets and is in favour of globalisation. They should love Trump.



And you want no subsidies. Because you have some cases where countries are subsidizing industries and that's not fair."


Noting that Trump has not called for ending any subsidies to US industries. Only foreigners.

He also once said the US should not tell other countries what to do. He actually said he supported the idea of other countries protecting their industries- just this week. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/06/10/within-the-first-minute-ill-know-trumps-confident-g-7-news-conference-annotated/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.0bef056c0086


So I don't blame them. I blame our leaders. In fact, I congratulate the leaders of other countries for so crazily being able to make these trade deals that were so good for their country and so bad for the United States.

and that was in the same speech criticizing Canada for protecting their dairy industry.

oyarde
06-11-2018, 04:02 PM
This canadian aggression should not be stood for . We can just annex it and make it like puerto rico.

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 04:02 PM
"Over promise, under deliver".


Noting that Trump has not called for ending any subsidies to US industries. Only foreigners.

He also once said the US should not tell other countries what to do. He actually said he supported the idea of other countries protecting their industries- just this week. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/06/10/within-the-first-minute-ill-know-trumps-confident-g-7-news-conference-annotated/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.0bef056c0086



and that was in the same speech criticizing Canada for protecting their dairy industry.



You don't have to keep proving your incapacity to understand, everyone is already aware of it.

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 04:03 PM
Noting that Trump has not called for ending any subsidies to US industries. Only foreigners.

He also once said the US should not tell other countries what to do. He actually said he supported the idea of other countries protecting their industries- just this week. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/06/10/within-the-first-minute-ill-know-trumps-confident-g-7-news-conference-annotated/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.0bef056c0086



and that was in the same speech criticizing Canada for protecting their dairy industry.

Umm, that's NOT supporting them. That's CONGRATULATING them for taking advantage all these years. Something he intends to end. He may, he may not get something done, but at least it's a hell of a lot better than the progressive mentality of "Those jobs are gone." But, whatev's, dude. Carry on.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 04:06 PM
Umm, that's NOT supporting them. That's CONGRATULATING them for taking advantage all these years. Something he intends to end. He may, he may not get something done, but at least it's a hell of a lot better than the progressive mentality of "Those jobs are gone." But, whatev's, dude. Carry on.

Tariffs ARE subsidies (indirect) which protect particular industries. Trump loves them. He is going to protect the steel industry. He is going to protect the coal industry. He is going to protect the dairy industry. They are also all industries facing lower demand for their output globally combined with global over-production and higher automation which all mean lost jobs within them. Yes, quite a few of those jobs are gone forever. "Tariff wars are good!"

Superfluous Man
06-11-2018, 04:08 PM
Maybe we should try what DJTvsg suggested and end all tariffs, barriers and subsidies.

Hopefully Trump will actually do that, and not wait for some other countries to do it first before he does.

Superfluous Man
06-11-2018, 04:11 PM
Umm, that's NOT supporting them. That's CONGRATULATING them for taking advantage all these years. Something he intends to end. He may, he may not get something done, but at least it's a hell of a lot better than the progressive mentality of "Those jobs are gone." But, whatev's, dude. Carry on.

What progressive mentality? And what jobs?

And please tell me you're not siding with Trump in congratulating foreign regimes for doing something that hurts their own people like imposing tariffs on them.

Taking advantage? This kind of talk going on in this forum is surreal.

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 04:12 PM
Hopefully Trump will actually do that, and not wait for some other countries to do it first before he does.

Maybe it would be best to negotiate a deal for everyone to do it.

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 04:16 PM
Tariffs ARE subsidies which protect particular industries. Trump loves them. He is going to protect the steel industry. He is going to protect the coal industry. He is going to protect the dairy industry.

Unless others agree to a free market. He's using the U.S. ability, as a consumer nation, to bargain from a position of power. Nothing wrong with that.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 04:24 PM
Unless others agree to a free market. He's using the U.S. ability, as a consumer nation, to bargain from a position of power. Nothing wrong with that.

There are other effects of tariffs. A tariff on steel adds costs to industries who use steel to make products. They must either raise their prices or reduce labor (cut jobs). More companies use steel than produce it so the lost jobs could be greater than the jobs saved. If we impose tariffs on one country, they respond by putting tariffs on industries in our country- costing jobs in those industries.

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 04:24 PM
What progressive mentality? And what jobs?

And please tell me you're not siding with Trump in congratulating foreign regimes for doing something that hurts their own people like imposing tariffs on them.

Taking advantage? This kind of talk going on in this forum is surreal.

He's congratulating them on taking advantage of trade deals where America runs a deficit with their countries. The United States has the world's largest trade deficit. It's been that way since Gerald Ford. It's time that ended.

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 04:29 PM
There are other effects of tariffs. A tariff on steel adds costs to industries who use steel to make products. They must either raise their prices or reduce labor (cut jobs). If we impose tariffs on one country, they respond by putting tariffs on industries in our country- costing jobs in those industries. More companies use steel than produce it so the lost jobs could be greater than the jobs saved.

We are the largest consumer nation. If they don't want to play fair then fuck them. Tariff the hell out of them. Trump is the only president that has realized that he negotiates from a position of power.

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 04:34 PM
Maybe it would be best to negotiate a deal for everyone to do it.

No shit. We are the largest consumer nation on this earth. We negotiate from a position of power. But, progressives would rather we get a shit-tonne of cheap shit so the unemployed welfare queens can have the illusion of living high on the hog with Obama phones and 52" T.V. screens. Instead of, you know, actually having to work for the things they really want in life. And, notice, most of the cheap shit has to do with media propaganda tools.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 04:37 PM
We are the largest consumer nation. If they don't want to play fair then $#@! them. Tariff the hell out of them. Trump is the only president that has realized that he negotiates from a position of power.

We have over $5 trillion in foreign trade- $2.3 trillion just in exports which is 12.5% of our total GDP. If we stopped trading with everybody, our economy would collapse. A hefty price for "principle". Then you end up with even more of your unemployed welfare queens. Tariffs are a corporate form of welfare.

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 04:41 PM
We have over $5 trillion in foreign trade- $2.3 trillion just in exports which is 12.5% of our total GDP. If we stopped trading with everybody, our economy would collapse. A hefty price for "principle". Then you end up with even more of your unemployed welfare queens.

Again. Would not happen. America negotiates from a position of power. We have the trade deficit. China has a roughly 15% total GDP with America. Would China "collapse?" No. And neither would we.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 04:47 PM
Again. Would not happen. America negotiates from a position of power. We have the trade deficit. China has a roughly 15% total GDP with America. Would China "collapse?" No. And neither would we.

US imports from China totaled $115.6 billion in 2016 and their GDP is $11.2 trillion. Their exports to us are about one percent of their GDP. They would weather a trade war better than we would.

Trade wars are the proverbial cutting off your nose to spite your face. You hurt yourself as much as the other guy.

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 04:52 PM
US imports from China totaled $115.6 billion in 2016 and their GDP is $11.2 trillion. Their exports to us are about one percent of their GDP. They would weather a trade war better than we would.

They are more fragile than we are.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 04:53 PM
They are more fragile than we are.

What do you mean by "fragile"?

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 04:56 PM
What do you mean by "fragile"?

They are more centrally planned and other such weaknesses, it will take much less to cause them to collapse than it will take to hurt us.

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 04:59 PM
US imports from China totaled $115.6 billion in 2016 and their GDP is $11.2 trillion. Their exports to us are about one percent of their GDP. They would weather a trade war better than we would.

I'll admit my figures were wrong there. But, so are yours. Imports from China totaled $478 billion. That $116 billion number you came up with was what America exported. Thus the trade deficit.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 05:03 PM
They are more centrally planned and other such weaknesses, it will take much less to cause them to collapse than it will take to hurt us.

So they would lose less (both sides lose). But with strong central control, companies in China would be less likely to lay off workers than in the US meaning we would lose more jobs than they will.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 05:05 PM
I'll admit my figures were wrong there. But, so are yours. Imports from China totaled $478 billion. That $116 billion number you came up with was what America exported. Thus the trade deficit.

Thanks for the correction. We still don't win in any trade wars. We end up worse off than we were before.

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 05:06 PM
So they would lose less (both sides lose). But with strong central control, companies in China would be less likely to lay off workers than in the US meaning we would lose more jobs than they will.

You are delusional.

Superfluous Man
06-11-2018, 05:13 PM
Maybe it would be best to negotiate a deal for everyone to do it.

Yes. And then when they don't go along with it, it would be best for Trump to lower, not raise, the tariffs he is imposing on us.

Superfluous Man
06-11-2018, 05:14 PM
But, progressives...

You obviously don't know what that word means.

Supporting tariffs *is* progressive.

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 05:16 PM
Thanks for the correction. We still don't win in any trade wars. We end up worse off than we were before.

We run roughly a 5 times trade deficit with China. Add into that the fact that their GDP is 8 trillion less than ours. Us shutting THEM off hurts THEM worse than US. Which means that they WILL negotiate better deals. That's how it's suppose to work. And something other American presidents and administrations have refused to try. If Trump can close that gap, even by half, that means tens of millions of jobs.

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 05:16 PM
Yes. And then when they don't go along with it, it would be best for Trump to lower, not raise, the tariffs he is imposing on us.

This has worked so well in the past?

Danke
06-11-2018, 05:24 PM
End the income tax, replace with across the board tariffs. Consumers that work for their money would have more than enough to absorb any price increases.

oyarde
06-11-2018, 05:28 PM
What do you mean by "fragile"?

I would say that is right . They have everything on such a large scale they have to sustain some real growth to prevent a slow down . We on the other hand can chug along at near zero growth and scrape by .

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 05:28 PM
You obviously don't know what that word means.

Supporting tariffs *is* progressive.

You obviously don't understand economic warfare. Tariffs are applied when other countries use subsidies to undercut American employment, outright steal technology, and basically wage economical war against us.

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 05:29 PM
End the income tax, replace with across the board tariffs. Consumers that work for their money would have more than enough to absorb any price increases.

Absolutely.

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 05:32 PM
I would say that is right . They have everything on such a large scale they have to sustain some real growth to prevent a slow down . We on the other hand can chug along at near zero growth and scrape by .

Welfare queens might not get 52" T.V's, and the latest Samsung or iPhone, but the rest of us would do alright.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 06:51 PM
Welfare queens might not get 52" T.V's, and the latest Samsung or iPhone, but the rest of us would do alright.

Why would welfare recipients receive fewer payments during a tariff war? How do tariffs work? Nobody would lose their jobs due to tariffs?

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 06:57 PM
Why would welfare recipients receive fewer payments during a tariff war? How do tariffs work? Nobody would lose their jobs due to tariffs?

Welfare might only offer sustenance instead of "the good things in life." That's a motivator for getting off welfare.

And again, you aren't grokking the negotiation aspect of it. It's a threat. One which would cause more harm from those that sell to us than those that buy from us.

You're gonna have to wrap your head around that before we can continue.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 07:04 PM
Welfare might only offer sustenance instead of "the good things in life." That's a motivator for getting off welfare.

.

That would be completely separate from any tariffs or trade war. That would be a law written by Congress and signed by the President- not an effect of tariffs.


And again, you aren't grokking the negotiation aspect of it. It's a threat. One which would cause more harm from those that sell to us than those that buy from us.

You're gonna have to wrap your head around that before we can continue

I see. Tariffs don't harm anybody. So if we impose a tariff on steel, the car makers don't have to worry about their higher costs. And when Canada responds with a tariff on whiskey, the workers at Jack Daniels won't have to worry. It only hurts Canada since we buy less steel from them and they still buy the same amount from us and US producers don't notice that their costs just went up. If we buy less from them, they are going to start buying less from us and both lose jobs.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 07:11 PM
We run roughly a 5 times trade deficit with China. Add into that the fact that their GDP is 8 trillion less than ours. Us shutting THEM off hurts THEM worse than US. Which means that they WILL negotiate better deals. That's how it's suppose to work.

Supposed to work. Unless they decide to call your bluff and retaliate with their own tariffs. Then you add more and they add more. When China did that, Trump suddenly called for a "tariff truce".


And something other American presidents and administrations have refused to try. If Trump can close that gap, even by half, that means tens of millions of jobs.

Tens of millions of jobs? With only six million currently unemployed (out of work and looking for a job), some will have to start working even more jobs. Or let in more immigrants to fill them. https://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/us/

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 07:22 PM
That would be completely separate from any tariffs or trade war. That would be a law written by Congress and signed by the President- not an effect of tariffs.



I see. Tariffs don't harm anybody. So if we impose a tariff on steel, the car makers don't have to worry about their higher costs. And when Canada responds with a tariff on whiskey, the workers at Jack Daniels won't have to worry. It only hurts Canada since we buy less steel from them and they still buy the same amount from us and US producers don't notice that their costs just went up. If we buy less from them, they are going to start buying less from us and both lose jobs.

See? You don't understand shit. They will capitulate. They HAVE NO CHOICE. Lol. You just don't get it. Has any country threatened a boycott of ours over tariffs? NO. They know where their bread is buttered.

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 07:25 PM
Supposed to work. Unless they decide to call your bluff and retaliate with their own tariffs. Then you add more and they add more. When China did that, Trump suddenly called for a "tariff truce".



Tens of millions of jobs? With only six million currently unemployed (out of work and looking for a job), some will have to start working even more jobs. Or let in more immigrants to fill them. https://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/us/

You won't see them retaliate by threatening to not sell to us, will you? You just don't get it.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 07:25 PM
See? You don't understand $#@!. They will capitulate. They HAVE NO CHOICE. Lol. You just don't get it. Has any country threatened a boycott of ours over tariffs? NO. They know where their bread is buttered.

You convinced me. Tariffs are wonderful and create millions of jobs. Nobody gets hurt.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 07:29 PM
You won't see them retaliate by threatening to not sell to us, will you? You just don't get it.

No, nobody retaliating. They are afraid.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/canada-eu-steel-aluminum-tariffs-retaliate/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-us-auto-tariffs-1.4701087

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-44378660

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/china-tariffs-trade-u-s-trump-1.4684091

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 07:30 PM
You convinced me. Tariffs are wonderful and create millions of jobs. Nobody gets hurt.

As a bargaining tool they work great. Again, please tell me why these countries haven't simply refused to trade with us over Trumps tariffs? You say it would hurt us worse than them. So why not just end trade with the U.S., until we capitulate, genius?

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 07:31 PM
You convinced me. Tariffs are wonderful and create millions of jobs. Nobody gets hurt.

Guns save lives too.

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 07:33 PM
No, nobody retaliating. They are afraid.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/canada-eu-steel-aluminum-tariffs-retaliate/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-us-auto-tariffs-1.4701087

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-44378660

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/china-tariffs-trade-u-s-trump-1.4684091

It isn't over yet, they are still laboring under the delusion that we will fold if they bluff.

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 07:33 PM
No, nobody retaliating. They are afraid.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/canada-eu-steel-aluminum-tariffs-retaliate/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-us-auto-tariffs-1.4701087

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-44378660

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/china-tariffs-trade-u-s-trump-1.4684091

So we ramp up ours. You haven't heard a single country say that the refuse to sell to us. Have you? These are just weak counter moves. The US is THE LARGEST CONSUMER NATION on the face of the earth. These are just face saving measures. But, they'll come in line during trade negotiations.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 07:38 PM
So we ramp up ours. You haven't heard a single country say that the refuse to sell to us. Have you? These are just weak counter moves. The US is THE LARGEST CONSUMER NATION on the face of the earth. These are just face saving measures. But, they'll come in line during trade negotiations.

Like NAFTA which involves tariff targets Mexico and Canada?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-tariffs-only-add-to-the-obstacles-for-nafta-negotiations-2018-05-31


U.S. tariffs only add to the obstacles for Nafta negotiations

Experts say Canada, Mexico unlikely to make concessions

The Trump administration’s decision to impose steel and aluminum tariffs against allies Canada and Mexico throws the latest wrench into talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, which started last year and had already hit roadblocks in May.

Rather than forcing Canada and Mexico into concessions on Nafta, analysts say, the tariff move is likely to strengthen Canada’s and Mexico’s resolve to not back down on unconventional U.S. demands for Nafta, such as the elimination of international panels to resolve trade disputes and a new clause under which the pact would expire if not explicitly renewed every five years.

The U.S. “may see this as a cost-free way of applying additional pressure. But the result will be the opposite,” said Gordon Ritchie, a former Canadian ambassador for trade negotiations.

He and other analysts say the tariffs put further trade-pact negotiations against a backdrop of ill-will and a widespread trade skirmish, none of which bodes well for a resolution to the Nafta stalemate.

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 07:44 PM
Like NAFTA which involves tariff targets Mexico and Canada?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-tariffs-only-add-to-the-obstacles-for-nafta-negotiations-2018-05-31

Bullshit posturing. You still aren't getting it. But, progressives rarely do. Just sit back, get off your computer and relax. Everything is gonna be better than alright. Certainly better than under Obama.

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 07:44 PM
Like NAFTA which involves tariff targets Mexico and Canada?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-tariffs-only-add-to-the-obstacles-for-nafta-negotiations-2018-05-31

NAFTA needs to die, we can cut a deal with each country one at a time after they accept that we aren't their patsy anymore.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 07:50 PM
Bull$#@! posturing. You still aren't getting it. But, progressives rarely do. Just sit back, get off your computer and relax. Everything is gonna be better than alright. Certainly better than under Obama.

All hail King Trump! Ruler of the World! Everybody should bow down to Me!

Ask not what Trump can do for you- ask what you can do for Trump! (or we will impose tariffs/ sanctions on you!)

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 07:59 PM
All hail King Trump! Ruler of the World! Everybody should bow down to Me!

Ask not what Trump can do for you- ask what you can do for Trump! (or we will impose tariffs/ sanctions on you!)

Knew it was only a matter of time before your progressive EMOTIONS trumped your progressive tactics. Carry on.

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 08:02 PM
Knew it was only a matter of time before your progressive EMOTIONS trumped your progressive tactics. Carry on.

Whenever they are losing the argument they switch to emotions.

Zippyjuan
06-11-2018, 08:03 PM
Knew it was only a matter of time before your progressive EMOTIONS trumped your progressive tactics. Carry on.

So what deals has Trump actually negotiated to completion as President? The Great Negotiator? He has ended several. So far he has shown better skill at tearing things down than building them up.

What countries have "caved in" to his demands since he began to threaten sanctions?

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 08:18 PM
So what deals has Trump actually negotiated to completion as President? The Great Negotiator? He has ended several. So far he has shown better skill at tearing things down than building them up.

Tearing things down isn't a good thing? Shaking things up? Probably better a status-quo president like Hillary, amirite? Six months in. Only a beginning. The omelet is not yet made but the eggs are getting broken. Better find a safe space, Zippy. More than likely, if things keep going as they are, you've got another 7.5 years of Trump rage ahead of you. It'll wear you down and burn you out.
And the truth of the matter is I don't much care for him. But, I've learned to let it go. It's better than the status-quo. He's actually created a rift in America that has been long festering. Progressivism is at an end. And that, in and of itself, is a good thing.

Danke
06-11-2018, 08:19 PM
See? You don't understand shit. They will capitulate. They HAVE NO CHOICE. Lol. You just don't get it. Has any country threatened a boycott of ours over tariffs? NO. They know where their bread is buttered.
6012

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 08:25 PM
Tearing things down isn't a good thing? Shaking things up? Probably better a status-quo president like Hillary, amirite? Six months in. Only a beginning. The omelet is not yet made but the eggs are getting broken. Better find a safe space, Zippy. More than likely, if things keep going as they are, you've got another 7.5 years of Trump rage ahead of you. It'll wear you down and burn you out.
And the truth of the matter is I don't much care for him. But, I've learned to let it go. It's better than the status-quo. He's actually created a rift in America that has been long festering. Progressivism is at an end. And that, in and of itself, is a good thing.

18 months, but you are correct anyway.

timosman
06-11-2018, 08:27 PM
US imports from China totaled $115.6 billion in 2016 and their GDP is $11.2 trillion. Their exports to us are about one percent of their GDP. They would weather a trade war better than we would.

Trade wars are the proverbial cutting off your nose to spite your face. You hurt yourself as much as the other guy.

Where does the rest of their GDP come from? Same BS as ours?:cool:

timosman
06-11-2018, 08:31 PM
Nice job everybody.:cool:

Swordsmyth
06-11-2018, 08:31 PM
Where does the rest of their GDP come from? Same BS as ours?:cool:

Ghost cities.

phill4paul
06-11-2018, 08:55 PM
18 months, but you are correct anyway.

Thanks for the correction. Between my mom's stroke in Dec. and the uptick in work because people are spending now I've lost track. I've raised my cash price this year 30% and nobody has blinked. I've had two days off in the last 20. Don't know what Trump is doing but he's got something moving along. It's much better than under Obama.