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Swordsmyth
04-06-2018, 06:26 PM
U.S. aluminum prices are dropping, despite a 10% tariff imposed by President Donald Trump on the metal in early March intended to protect U.S. companies and allow for the creation of new manufacturing plants, one of his main promises during the 2016 presidential election.
The president touted the falling aluminum costs -- down 4% from when the White House first announced the tariffs -- on Twitter early Friday morning.
“Despite the Aluminum Tariffs, Aluminum prices are DOWN 4%. People are surprised, I’m not!” he wrote. “Lots of money coming into U.S. coffers and Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!”

More at: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-touts-falling-aluminum-prices-after-tariffs
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tod evans
04-06-2018, 06:35 PM
Bauxite production is relevant to the cost of aluminum more than politics....


https://www.mining-technology.com/features/featurebauxite-behemoths-the-worlds-biggest-bauxite-producers-4274090/

oyarde
04-06-2018, 06:41 PM
I do not really use aluminum but I used to sell it . I do still buy and sell some copper, nickel and lead. I usually know about what current copper price is but I really do not pay much attention to aluminum.

acptulsa
04-06-2018, 06:45 PM
Oh, look. Mr. I Don't Sell Trump is sending out mass spam.

Four percent. Who the fuck cares?

thoughtomator
04-06-2018, 06:45 PM
And yet dire predictions of higher prices were made nonetheless.

Almost as if... they didn't know wtf they were talking about and were just regurgitating a hypothesis that is not anywhere near as relevant to the real world as they thought.

juleswin
04-06-2018, 06:53 PM
Extra extra read all about it. Tax increases now lead to price drops. I mean, make it more expensive for people to buy a product and the price just drops.

How can u people be so foolish. And even prices drops, they dropped inspite of the tariffs and were going to drop anyway.

https://www.fastmarkets.com/base-metals/aluminium-prices-and-charts/

RonZeplin
04-06-2018, 06:58 PM
U.S. aluminum prices are dropping, despite a 10% tariff imposed by President Donald Trump on the metal in early March intended to protect U.S. companies and allow for the creation of new manufacturing plants, one of his main promises during the 2016 presidential election.
The president touted the falling aluminum costs -- down 4% from when the White House first announced the tariffs -- on Twitter early Friday morning.
“Despite the Aluminum Tariffs, Aluminum prices are DOWN 4%. People are surprised, I’m not!” he wrote. “Lots of money coming into U.S. coffers and Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!”

More at: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-touts-falling-aluminum-prices-after-tariffs


Dead cat bounce. Give it time, way too soon to see all of the horrific effects yet.

https://humbleblatherskite.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/trumpsmugmissionaccomp.jpg?w=450&h=267

If anything goes wrong, I'll fire someone.

Zippyjuan
04-06-2018, 07:04 PM
Still eleven percent higher than a year ago. Prices rose in anticipation of the tariffs.

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ihqAGcTK1jUE/v4/800x-1.png

Swordsmyth
04-06-2018, 07:08 PM
Still eleven percent higher than a year ago. Prices rose in anticipation of the tariffs.
Panic buying, now the price is dropping again.

Zippyjuan
04-06-2018, 07:09 PM
Panic buying, now the price is dropping again.

But not to as low as it was. Prices are still higher.

Swordsmyth
04-06-2018, 07:12 PM
But not to as low as it was. Prices are still higher.
It took time to rise and it will take time to drop.
Also there are other factors involved in setting the price.
The fact is that the doom and gloom predictions are not happening.

phill4paul
04-06-2018, 07:18 PM
But not to as low as it was. Prices are still higher.

Not enough for my beer can recycling to fund my retirement. MAGA.

juleswin
04-06-2018, 07:33 PM
Not enough for my beer can recycling to fund my retirement. MAGA.

New reality: selling aluminium beer cans to pay for our retirement #MAGA

phill4paul
04-06-2018, 07:36 PM
New reality: selling aluminium beer cans to pay for our retirement #MAGA

Reality. Government employees won't have to. Join the government. Good times!

oyarde
04-06-2018, 07:42 PM
Consider this , West Texas Light oil is at 62.06 , Copper at 3.05 and wholesale gasoline at 1.95 . If the economy was growing significantly or was expected to I would expect those numbers to be much higher . I never expected tariffs to have any significant impact on pricing . You can run a company or you cannot .

spudea
04-06-2018, 07:43 PM
Extra extra read all about it. Tax increases now lead to price drops. I mean, make it more expensive for people to buy a product and the price just drops.

How can u people be so foolish. And even prices drops, they dropped inspite of the tariffs and were going to drop anyway.

https://www.fastmarkets.com/base-metals/aluminium-prices-and-charts/

You are linking the price for aluminum in London which is not conducive to the price in the USA. You graduated from the school of Zippyjuan...

juleswin
04-06-2018, 07:43 PM
Reality. Government employees won't have to. Join the government. Good times!

That is why I got into healthcare. Medicare and medicaid is essentially responsible for my pay. Thank you socialized medicine :)

juleswin
04-06-2018, 07:47 PM
You are linking the price for aluminum in London which is not conducive to the price in the USA. You graduated from the school of Zippyjuan...

You mean to tell me that the chart in pound and dollar is the London market? I just got that from google search and assumed that the chart in dollar referred to US market. Maybe you can link me to a chart that reflects the US market cos I am just confused.

phill4paul
04-06-2018, 07:48 PM
That is why I got into healthcare. Medicare and medicaid is essentially responsible for my pay. Thank you socialized medicine :)

Way to go Tax Tick! You're to be commended! :rolleyes:

juleswin
04-06-2018, 07:53 PM
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/aluminum_historical_large.html

Found this site with charts. Looks similar to the previous one I posted.

brushfire
04-06-2018, 08:04 PM
LOL Just like his tax reform - immediate response by the market!

Lets take a look at prices in a few weeks/months, and then lets see whose fault it is when prices creep up... (then again, if production halts, aluminum may be pennies for a pound)


Hey! Nobody gets out of this one - this next bubble's gonna be yuuuge. We'll be so fking sick of winning, I guess we'll be losing.

...And the brown motherfkers out east better start preemptively spreading democracy in a hurry, 'cause 'merica's gonna have her self a bubble war. Check it!


Hope I'm wrong.

r3volution 3.0
04-06-2018, 08:05 PM
Extra extra read all about it. Tax increases now lead to price drops. I mean, make it more expensive for people to buy a product and the price just drops.

How can u people be so foolish. And even prices drops, they dropped inspite of the tariffs and were going to drop anyway.

Stop baffling them with sound reasoning.

bunklocoempire
04-06-2018, 08:08 PM
U.S. aluminum prices are dropping, despite a 10% tariff imposed by President Donald Trump on the metal in early March intended to protect U.S. companies and allow for the creation of new manufacturing plants, one of his main promises during the 2016 presidential election.
The president touted the falling aluminum costs -- down 4% from when the White House first announced the tariffs -- on Twitter early Friday morning.
“Despite the Aluminum Tariffs, Aluminum prices are DOWN 4%. People are surprised, I’m not!” he wrote. “Lots of money coming into U.S. coffers and Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!”

More at: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-touts-falling-aluminum-prices-after-tariffs
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Thanks for including me in your big, life moment, and congrats on 4 %.

Edit:

https://pictshare.net/360x360/0jbj9ws13g.gif

devil21
04-06-2018, 08:11 PM
Still no one can tell me whether Trump's "proclamation" of tariffs carried any legal weight or whether it was more fake news.

EBounding
04-06-2018, 08:18 PM
Neat. Thanks for letting me know?

Raginfridus
04-06-2018, 08:25 PM
U.S. aluminum prices are dropping, despite a 10% tariff imposed by President Donald Trump on the metal in early March intended to protect U.S. companies and allow for the creation of new manufacturing plants, one of his main promises during the 2016 presidential election.
The president touted the falling aluminum costs -- down 4% from when the White House first announced the tariffs -- on Twitter early Friday morning.
“Despite the Aluminum Tariffs, Aluminum prices are DOWN 4%. People are surprised, I’m not!” he wrote. “Lots of money coming into U.S. coffers and Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!”

More at: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-touts-falling-aluminum-prices-after-tariffs
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The Rebel Poet
04-06-2018, 08:27 PM
Still no one can tell me whether Trump's "proclamation" of tariffs carried any legal weight or whether it was more fake news.
“The role of the god-emperor is to make Law, interpret the constitutionality of public and private activity, and inform the public of public opinion via social media.” - New American Post-Trumpbama Constitution, Article I, Section I, Subsection A, Title 1a.

Ender
04-06-2018, 08:28 PM
I feel so special.

r3volution 3.0
04-06-2018, 08:47 PM
“The role of the god-emperor is to make Law, interpret the constitutionality of public and private activity, and inform the public of public opinion via social media.” - New American Post-Trumpbama Constitution, Article I, Section I, Subsection A, Title 1a.

"You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to The Rebel Poet again"

spudea
04-06-2018, 08:57 PM
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/aluminum_historical_large.html

Found this site with charts. Looks similar to the previous one I posted.

honestly I've forgotten what we are going back and forth about. The chart clearly shows the current price is lower than when the tariffs were implemented. The exact opposite of what many here predicted. You appear to be focused on the spike in the past couple days, which a trend it is not. I'm reading articles about domestic producers coming back online creating jobs here at home. When these producers enter the market will counter the price effect on imported aluminum. Its not like you suggest that prices will always be higher with tariffs and lower without tariffs. There is a clear difference in economic theory and economic reality when multiple additional variables are considered.

nobody's_hero
04-06-2018, 09:36 PM
There is a clear difference in economic theory and economic reality when multiple additional variables are considered.

much truth in that sentence.

dannno
04-06-2018, 09:39 PM
As if a million fucks cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced...

The first part is true, but seems they are doubling down now.

goldenequity
04-06-2018, 10:10 PM
article on rare earth metals (http://theweek.com/articles/765276/how-china-win-trade-war-1-move)

Swordsmyth
04-06-2018, 10:15 PM
article on rare earth metals (http://theweek.com/articles/765276/how-china-win-trade-war-1-move)

They can't afford to pull that trigger and we can replace their production if we had to.

Origanalist
04-06-2018, 11:04 PM
Cant_stop_laughing.

nikcers
04-07-2018, 12:10 AM
article on rare earth metals (http://theweek.com/articles/765276/how-china-win-trade-war-1-move)
Why do you think they were threatening NK?

Estimates as to the value of the nation’s mineral resources have varied greatly over the years, made difficult by secrecy and lack of access. North Korea itself has made what are likely exaggerated claims (http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/english/news/politics/9752-selling-minerals-north-korean-officially-mines-rare-earth-elements-boost-economy) about them. According to one estimate from a South Korean state-owned mining company, they’re worth over $6 trillion (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-01-19/north-korea-new-land-of-opportunity). Another from a South Korean research institute puts the amount closer to $10 trillion (http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/05/korea-opportunities).

Found this interesting comment on reddit under a thread Why does China defend North Korea so often at the international level? (https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/1y6rpy/why_does_china_defend_north_korea_so_often_at_the/)


North Korea has one of the largest, if not the largest, deposits of rare earth elements in the world. These minerals are not only used in televisions and mobile devices, but missiles and advanced defense systems as well. Some estimate that there is $6 Trillion worth in North Korea.With China already having a monopoly on rare earth elements, producing around 95% of the current supply, and their trade relationship with the DPRK, this creates an economic boon for China. It also aids the DPRK, because they don't have the infrastructure to mine for REEs, as they are very costly to extract.
China's monopoly of REE's is in fact considered a national security issue by the Worldwide Threat Assessment. Imagine if they begin to mine for them in the DPRK.
I didn't even mention the amount of other minerals in North Korea.
Sources: http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/at-the-edge/2013/04/02/chinas-continuing-monopoly-over-rare-earth-minerals
http://www.mining.com/largest-known-rare-earth-deposit-discovered-in-north-korea-86139/

AZJoe
04-07-2018, 02:39 AM
Well there you have - cause and effect. Just proved that raising taxes causes lower prices. Who'd have thunk it?
Amazing! Time to raise taxes on everything!

dannno
04-07-2018, 02:48 AM
Well there you have - cause and effect. Swordmyth just proved that raising taxes causes lower prices. Who'd have thunk it?
Amazing! Time to raise taxes on everything!

I think he was just showing that when you have somebody really, legitimately smart with good intentions in charge of a corrupt, manipulated system that they can potentially change some things for the better.

Also, Trump was attacked because people thought that the price of soda cans were going to rise, and it doesn't look like that is happening.

juleswin
04-07-2018, 04:32 AM
honestly I've forgotten what we are going back and forth about. The chart clearly shows the current price is lower than when the tariffs were implemented. The exact opposite of what many here predicted. You appear to be focused on the spike in the past couple days, which a trend it is not. I'm reading articles about domestic producers coming back online creating jobs here at home. When these producers enter the market will counter the price effect on imported aluminum. Its not like you suggest that prices will always be higher with tariffs and lower without tariffs. There is a clear difference in economic theory and economic reality when multiple additional variables are considered.

Don't get me wrong, I think it is very possible that the tariffs could bring in local investment in metal production, jobs and experience that could down the line lead to US being experts at producing aluminium. And given enough protection from foreign competition could lead to the point where the US metal producing companies can compete with Canadian, Mexican and maybe even Chinese companies. So yes, I can see prices stabilizing down the line but what little price drop cannot be attributed to the recent tax by Trump.


Its not like you suggest that prices will always be higher with tariffs and lower without tariffs.

This is exactly what I am saying. Prices will always go up when taxes increase. Now, if prices were on the decline before the tax increase, then said tax increase would only reduce the rate of decline. You know when I used to post of DU, I remember instances when minimum wage was raised and then unemployment rate when down. They would say the same things you said now i.e. "See, we raised the minimum wage and nobody lost their jobs". Ofc this is not what happened.


There is a clear difference in economic theory and economic reality when multiple additional variables are considered

Well, if we are to consider one variable at a time, then tariffs effect on prices matches up with the economic theory. What I mean is that if everything else remained the same and tariffs were raised, then you will see a bump in prices just as would have been predicted by the economics theory models.

angelatc
04-07-2018, 08:31 AM
Why did you tag me in this? Pretty sure you DON'T want my attention.

osan
04-07-2018, 09:07 AM
Bauxite production is relevant to the cost of aluminum more than politics....


https://www.mining-technology.com/features/featurebauxite-behemoths-the-worlds-biggest-bauxite-producers-4274090/

Probably depends on the politics in question, methinks. But yeah, generally speaking in the absence of extremities I would agree.

Standard economic theory suggests the tariff is a bad thing. All else equal, I agree. One thing the books do not seem to cover, at least not in any detail that I can recall, is the case where one nation imposes tariffs in response to another nation's market-distorting practices. The only case of this I can recall from my own texts (particularly Mankiew, regarded as a standard across many of the top business schools), is that of trade wars, which is something of a reductio ad absurdum example - two nations duking it out in tit-for-tat fashion until the respective populations are each reduced to states of hunger-infused poverty.

Has China not been exercising protectionist policies, at least against American products for many years? They have by all means been distorting the global labor market by running what is in all practical terms a slave labor market, which has so very clearly distorted the global economy as to be nearly unworthy of argument.

As some here may recall, I have for years posited the possibility that tariffs may actually work as intended when applied for the sake of neutralizing these market-distorting practices. In another post from some years ago, I suggested that a tariff calculated to bring the typical effective price (whether retail or wholesale) to within some percentage of that commonly found in one's homeland for a given widget, say 20%, might well give the foreign producer (China) the incentive to ease up on its tyrannical and distorting administration of slave labor.

The unweighted average hourly wage in America is about $29/hour, calculated very casually (did not include dollar fractions in hourlies because I am lazy) from https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t19.htm.

The average hourly in China is now, shockingly, $3.60 per hour, way up from the $0.66/hr in 2006. Nonetheless, it costs American employers an average of eight-times the labor cost of their Chinese counterparts. That discrepancy cannot be credibly argued as not distorting the markets. There are additional factors here, of course, such as the relative productivity of Chinese workers v. American, but I do not believe that American workers are so much more efficient that they produce 8x per unit time, at equal or better quality, than do their Chinese competitors. Let us generously place it a 4x, leaving the effective relative labor costs of Chinese to American as 1/4. I will argue that that remains a significantly distorting factor precisely because the discrepancy is not "organic". It is the result of tyrannical government economic policies that see workers punished with deep severity for so much as asking for a raise.

So here we have America slapping them with a 10% tariff on aluminum. It will be interesting to see the longer-term result. As for now, it is too soon either to crow or condemn over it. It will be interesting to see how the US responds if and when the prices from China begin to align more closely with those in America. Will the tariff be lifted? Only time will tell, but given the proclivity to greed combined with a generally deplorable ignorance on topics like economics by those in Congress and so forth, my optimism would remain tempered until such time as we see the beef.

But if it proves out to work when prudently applied, the economic texts will all stand in need of some revision on the matter of tariffs.

Therefore, rather that either cursing Trump or getting on one's knees before him for happy time, perhaps we are better served to sit back and watch the fun as it unfolds.

Just a thought.

osan
04-07-2018, 09:26 AM
But not to as low as it was. Prices are still higher.


It took time to rise and it will take time to drop.
Also there are other factors involved in setting the price.
The fact is that the doom and gloom predictions are not happening.

You are each missing a point.

Firstly, Zippy pal, the dollar loses value by the minute. Therefore, short of a quantum improvement in the cost of production, such as ordinary people suddenly crapping pigs of pure aluminum ready for processing into the products you know and love, the price will continue to rise. Your implication of FAIL is, therefore, FAIL.

Secondly, we do not know how far it will drop or for how long it will remain down in relative terms, so I would advise a bit more caution with the optimism. Four percent is significant, even though some here so not seem to think so. But I would not be handing out the cigars just yet, not breaking out the DP (shitty tasting champagne anyhow, to my palate).

"Hurry up and wait" is the proper prescription at this time, which could change in a moment. But until it changes, it remains my choice.

TheCount
04-07-2018, 09:31 AM
U.S. aluminum prices are dropping, despite a 10% tariff imposed by President Donald Trump on the metal in early March intended to protect U.S. companies and allow for the creation of new manufacturing plants, one of his main promises during the 2016 presidential election.
The president touted the falling aluminum costs -- down 4% from when the White House first announced the tariffs -- on Twitter early Friday morning.
“Despite the Aluminum Tariffs, Aluminum prices are DOWN 4%. People are surprised, I’m not!” he wrote. “Lots of money coming into U.S. coffers and Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!”

Wasn't the supposed purpose behind these tariffs to save domestic aluminum manufacturers from prices which were too low for them to compete?

And now you and your god emperor are celebrating that the prices are even lower?

osan
04-07-2018, 09:34 AM
It took time to rise and it will take time to drop.
Also there are other factors involved in setting the price.
The fact is that the doom and gloom predictions are not happening.


You are linking the price for aluminum in London which is not conducive to the price in the USA. You graduated from the school of Zippyjuan...

Aluminum is a base commodity, traded in and between global markets. Were there a significant discrepancy, say, between the London and Chicago exchanges, the arbitrageurs would be on that like stink on rice. The differences would disappear in a matter of ours at the most, and more likely minutes.

In this world of virtually instantaneous access and interoperation, there is very little difference in the prices of commodities such as aluminum between markets anymore. Therefore, short of momentary spike-changes, which are rapidly absorbed back down to the mean, London prices should be valid most of the time.

osan
04-07-2018, 09:48 AM
It took time to rise and it will take time to drop.
Also there are other factors involved in setting the price.
The fact is that the doom and gloom predictions are not happening.


honestly I've forgotten what we are going back and forth about. The chart clearly shows the current price is lower than when the tariffs were implemented. The exact opposite of what many here predicted. You appear to be focused on the spike in the past couple days, which a trend it is not. I'm reading articles about domestic producers coming back online creating jobs here at home. When these producers enter the market will counter the price effect on imported aluminum. Its not like you suggest that prices will always be higher with tariffs and lower without tariffs. There is a clear difference in economic theory and economic reality when multiple additional variables are considered.

Well said.

If producers are in fact coming back online, that is real. Will one say that it's not happening, or that it is of no consequence? If so, then stand before the bulldozers that are not there, not clearing the building sites and see whether you get run flat.

The levels of irrationality I am witnessing here, the apparent lust to rush to judgment, is very puzzling. I recall a time here where the measure of men's comments were far more carefully carried forth. Speaking in terms of the gestalt, we used to criticize the "left", or whatever you want to call them, for doing precisely this - for knee-jerking based on emotion whilst abandoning reason, logic, and the facts. What happened here? Why is there so much of the same going on now? I see no justification, as yet, for going all apey about the guy in the egg-shaped office. It's as if some have rejected the prudence of being patient.

I also find it odd that, given the position in which every last one of us finds himself in terms of rights, economics, and so on, that there are those for whom no amount of good news, however marginal it may seem to him, is accepted with grace and appreciation. "Meh... four fucking lousy percent... FUCK TRUMP!"

Come now - we have all proven ourselves (well most of us anyhow) more than capable of being the better man regarding our habits and thoughts on such matters. I also thought we were all friends here, despite our sometimes rather vociferous differences of opinion. Getting all worked up and fleeing from basic sense is pointlessly destructive of the fabric from which I have always assumed this forum to have been woven. Have I been mistaken?

I'll be over here, donning my Nomex, if anyone needs me.

osan
04-07-2018, 09:55 AM
It took time to rise and it will take time to drop.
Also there are other factors involved in setting the price.
The fact is that the doom and gloom predictions are not happening.


Wasn't the supposed purpose behind these tariffs to save domestic aluminum manufacturers from prices which were too low for them to compete?

Methinks you have completely misconstrued, but if you can substantiate this with solid facts, I will demur.

Otherwise, the rest of your post face-plants with a <thud>.

TheCount
04-07-2018, 10:07 AM
Methinks you have completely misconstrued, but if you can substantiate this with solid facts, I will demur.

Otherwise, the rest of your post face-plants with a <thud>.


https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-proclamation-adjusting-imports-aluminum-united-states/


1. On January 19, 2018, the Secretary of Commerce (Secretary) transmitted to me a report on his investigation into the effect of imports of aluminum on the national security of the United States under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended (19 U.S.C. 1862).

2. The Secretary found and advised me of his opinion that aluminum is being imported into the United States in such quantities and under such circumstances as to threaten to impair the national security of the United States. The Secretary found that the present quantities of aluminum imports and the circumstances of global excess capacity for producing aluminum are “weakening our internal economy,” leaving the United States “almost totally reliant on foreign producers of primary aluminum” and “at risk of becoming completely reliant on foreign producers of high-purity aluminum that is essential for key military and commercial systems.” Because of these risks, and the risk that the domestic aluminum industry would become “unable to satisfy existing national security needs or respond to a national security emergency that requires a large increase in domestic production,” and taking into account the close relation of the economic welfare of the Nation to our national security, see 19 U.S.C. 1862(d), the Secretary concluded that the present quantities and circumstances of aluminum imports threaten to impair the national security as defined in section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended.

...

7. In the exercise of these authorities, I have decided to adjust the imports of aluminum articles by imposing a 10 percent ad valorem tariff on aluminum articles, as defined below, imported from all countries except Canada and Mexico. In my judgment, this tariff is necessary and appropriate in light of the many factors I have considered, including the Secretary’s report, updated import and production numbers for 2017, the failure of countries to agree on measures to reduce global excess capacity, the continued high level of imports since the beginning of the year, and special circumstances that exist with respect to Canada and Mexico. This relief will help our domestic aluminum industry to revive idled facilities, open closed smelters and mills, preserve necessary skills by hiring new aluminum workers, and maintain or increase production, which will reduce our Nation’s need to rely on foreign producers for aluminum and ensure that domestic producers can continue to supply all the aluminum necessary for critical industries and national defense. Under current circumstances, this tariff is necessary and appropriate to address the threat that imports of aluminum articles pose to the national security.

...

10. In the meantime, the tariff imposed by this proclamation is an important first step in ensuring the economic viability of our domestic aluminum industry. ... It is my judgment that the tariff imposed by this proclamation is necessary and appropriate to adjust imports of aluminum articles so that such imports will not threaten to impair the national security as defined in section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended.

nobody's_hero
04-07-2018, 12:06 PM
Well, if we are to consider one variable at a time, then tariffs effect on prices matches up with the economic theory. What I mean is that if everything else remained the same and tariffs were raised, then you will see a bump in prices just as would have been predicted by the economics theory models.

Seldom in reality is only one variable considered at a time, and that is the point. The problem is that many people who come from the free market schools of thought adhere strictly to economic theory as though it was economic law, and will not view anything in terms other than cut-and-dry. No gray area allowed. If it cannot be explained, it must simply be wrong.

bunklocoempire
04-07-2018, 12:24 PM
I think he was just showing that when you have somebody really, legitimately smart with good intentions in charge of a corrupt, manipulated system that they can potentially change some things for the better.

Also, Trump was attacked because people thought that the price of soda cans were going to rise, and it doesn't look like that is happening.

Meh. President Torture is "attacked' because he is piddling around with symptoms and never mentions the f'n truth.

Protect my natural rights is supposed to be job # 1, but he's never even mentioned them.

Double-down on truth? Every time - hasn't failed me yet.

juleswin
04-07-2018, 12:53 PM
Seldom in reality is only one variable considered at a time, and that is the point. The problem is that many people who come from the free market schools of thought adhere strictly to economic theory as though it was economic law, and will not view anything in terms other than cut-and-dry. No gray area allowed. If it cannot be explained, it must simply be wrong.

I worked in medical research after college and all we did was try to isolate one variable to see the effect on xxx biomaterial. Regardless my whole reason for coming into the thread is to dispell the implication that raising the price of aluminium via tariff can led to reduced aluminium prices. When the opposite is the case, stated differently, tariffs will 100% of the time lead to an increase in price of x tariffed goods.


Btw, I believed in the law of supply and demand before I became a free marketer. Think of it this way, when a tariff is imposed, it is done to reduce the supply of the tariffed goods. When this is done, it raises the price of the material hopefully to the point where local producers can produce the good and still make some profit. Now imagine if real prices dropped when a tariff is implemented, how would the local producers ever get into the market? If they couldn't make a profit at price level 10, then no way they can do the same at price level 8.

So yea, the economic theory better work on this one or else everybody will be screwed. Btw, I think it is still possible for locally produced prices to drop to the pre tariffed good price with time. Just not days after the tariff is imposed.

Swordsmyth
04-07-2018, 01:19 PM
Wasn't the supposed purpose behind these tariffs to save domestic aluminum manufacturers from prices which were too low for them to compete?

And now you and your god emperor are celebrating that the prices are even lower?

Price and market share are two different things, in any case the point is that people howled that prices were going to skyrocket and wreck the economy and that isn't happening.

bunklocoempire
04-07-2018, 02:06 PM
Well said.

If producers are in fact coming back online, that is real. Will one say that it's not happening, or that it is of no consequence? If so, then stand before the bulldozers that are not there, not clearing the building sites and see whether you get run flat.

The levels of irrationality I am witnessing here, the apparent lust to rush to judgment, is very puzzling. I recall a time here where the measure of men's comments were far more carefully carried forth. Speaking in terms of the gestalt, we used to criticize the "left", or whatever you want to call them, for doing precisely this - for knee-jerking based on emotion whilst abandoning reason, logic, and the facts. What happened here? Why is there so much of the same going on now? I see no justification, as yet, for going all apey about the guy in the egg-shaped office. It's as if some have rejected the prudence of being patient.

I also find it odd that, given the position in which every last one of us finds himself in terms of rights, economics, and so on, that there are those for whom no amount of good news, however marginal it may seem to him, is accepted with grace and appreciation. "Meh... four fucking lousy percent... FUCK TRUMP!"

Come now - we have all proven ourselves (well most of us anyhow) more than capable of being the better man regarding our habits and thoughts on such matters. I also thought we were all friends here, despite our sometimes rather vociferous differences of opinion. Getting all worked up and fleeing from basic sense is pointlessly destructive of the fabric from which I have always assumed this forum to have been woven. Have I been mistaken?

I'll be over here, donning my Nomex, if anyone needs me.


Friends can name names, so please name names, friend, so friends have a chance to address specific concerns. Thanks.

TheCount
04-07-2018, 05:24 PM
Price and market share are two different things, in any case the point is that people howled that prices were going to skyrocket and wreck the economy and that isn't happening.
Are you arguing that tariffs caused the domestic production to be cheaper?

If not, then the tariffs were ineffective at what the tariffs were supposed to do, in which case congratulations, taxes were increased for nothing.


No matter what the cause of this change is, it is not persuasive for your argument.

osan
04-07-2018, 07:47 PM
The Secretary found and advised me of his opinion that aluminum is being imported into the United States in such quantities and under such circumstances as to threaten to impair the national security of the United States...

This relief will help our domestic aluminum industry to revive idled facilities, open closed smelters and mills, preserve necessary skills by hiring new aluminum workers, and maintain or increase production...

Under current circumstances, this tariff is necessary and appropriate to address the threat that imports of aluminum articles pose to the national security...

the tariff imposed by this proclamation is an important first step in ensuring the economic viability of our domestic aluminum industry. ... It is my judgment that the tariff imposed by this proclamation is necessary and appropriate to adjust imports of aluminum articles so that such imports will not threaten to impair the national security as defined in section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended.



I don't see how his supports your position. Rather, it would seem to support mine. The longer US facilities remain idle, the more practical knowledge is faded or lost. In a better world where nations do not plot and scheme against others, this would not be a problem. In this world, it is a problem. China is not our friend by any stretch and if they think they can get away with it, they would endeavor to cripple us piecemeal. Some would say that that would not be in their better economic interest, but they would be mistaken. The economic bottom line take a back seat to that of ultimate material power. After all, in this sense economics is warfare by other means, to borrow a notion.

A problem I see with people is the apparent inability or unwillingness to recognize and accept that the world is not as they would have it. Our liberty-normalized ideals cannot be fully practiced in a hostile world full of alien states that have no desire for liberty, whose people lack the same desire, and whose leaders scheme and scam to get over on other nation states. This has been going on forever in the "civilized" world. Such problems were not at all common in most anarchic societies, so far as human study of such populations reveals. The very structure of the Empire fabric brings this evil quality of humanity to the fore. The point here is that until we learn to live with each other as proper human beings, some the measures taken that offend our ideals of liberty will remain as necessities in order to avert greater evils. I'm sorry that it is this way, but on the whole humanity accepts the current scheme of things as somehow unavoidable. The mental juggernaut that this represents is difficult to overstate. Thoughts form reality. So long as people think they want this or must do that, things that are anathema to human liberty, the practicalities will continue to hamstring we who are prepared for true freedom and all that it requires of us, risk as well as reward.

Think of Israel as a good example. They maintain stern control of borders. Why? Because if they opened up, the Arabs would wipe them from the earth in no time. That is an issue of material national defense against genocide, but it is directly and strongly analogous to the economic equivalent.

The fact is that there are nations out there of non-trivial economic reach who would love nothing more than to see America set to wrack and ruin. Many Islamic nations hate us, rightly or otherwise. Russia is not our buddies, not China. Right there you have a set whose combined power easily rivals ours and whose regard for us is less than warm on the best of days.

I want the world to be free, but most of the world has no interest in it. What do we, the truer liberty lovers of the world, do? I don't see much hope here. Recall in days past how I noted that Americans cannot even get it up to take over one measley, miserable, mostly frozen shit-dump of a state to restore proper Constitutional rule. How on earth are we to accomplish this in an area 406.1 times the size and a population 242.56 times as large, nearly half of whom would see the throats of your children slit before accepting liberty?

And what of the rest of the world? There is nary a soul in western Europe interested in freedom, as witnessed by the nearly universal adoption of rank socialism in places like France, UK, Germany, etc. The only people so inclined were the ones who suffered the indignities and privations under the tyranny of the Soviet bloc. The Chinese are a wholly defeated people, bred to strict acceptance of whatever fiat the tyrant yanks from his bootus-hole on whim. Most of Africa is a wasteland of bald-faced savagery as it has been since time immemorial, which in the context of this discussion is actually a good thing because they are in no position to become a material threat to the rest of the world. Given its size and vast resource wealth, were the black Africans to get with an agenda of becoming a global force with which to be reckoned, the world would have yet another cause to sleep with one eye opened.

Humanity, taken as a statistical gestalt, is a train wreck. Few will see it, but we are living in yet another feudal age due to the fact that we stubbornly refuse to behave as a species as if we had the least whit of sense. Don't let the trappings of our technological advances fool you; those levers have, in fact, driven us to greater barbarity than ever before in all our known existences on this world. We are not evolving a whit. We are doing very much the opposite because those very levers make is possible. Back when mass killing was not only a shit-ton of hard physical labor, but laden with all manner of risk that the longer time frames afforded men an opportunity to consider with at least some greater measure of care. Today, a Trump, Putin, or Li Keqiang could set the world toward annihilation in forty minutes or less, were they to allow themselves to be ruled by a hissy fit for whatever reason.

Just take a look at what goes on in Africa daily. I am not even sure I can assess a huge proportion of those populations as quite fully human... or perhaps they are exactly that, driving my points home with even greater force. I watched a video just last night about a woman in Congo who brought the wrong sort of fish to some workers. She was forced to have sex with the son of her husband's other (ex??) wife, and then both were murdered, but not just murdered - no sir. They were dismembered alive, things done to them I will not repeat here, all to the cheers of a raving crowd that seems to have been the entire village or town. Their bodies were left on display.

That's not an aberration. it is commonplace in Africa.

That is the world in which we live. To think that we could just fling wide the doors of economic opportunity, not to mention the borders, is not sound. This world is fixing to come apart at the seams and I believe that taking measures to protect oneself, economically as well as physically, are not wrong in themselves, given the current reality.

I wish it were different.

TheCount
04-07-2018, 07:50 PM
I don't see how his supports your position. Rather, it would seem to support mine. The longer US facilities remain idle, the more practical knowledge is faded or lost.
Why are they idle?

Because they're not competitive.

In what way are they not competitive?

Price.

How was it proposed to fix that?

Tariffs.

osan
04-07-2018, 08:20 PM
I worked in medical research after college and all we did was try to isolate one variable to see the effect on xxx biomaterial.

And did you not discover that such isolations in multivariate systems often would not paint a sufficient causal picture? Synergistic effects based on complex balances of many factors often constitute a vertitable Gordian Knot.


Regardless my whole reason for coming into the thread is to dispell the implication that raising the price of aluminium via tariff can led to reduced aluminium prices.

I must agree that this seems unlikely. There must be more to the truth than this. It does, however, demonstrate that imposition of a tariff does not perforce lead to a rise - at least not immediately. Once again, complex systems can be painfully difficult to analyze correctly, one of the real sticky-wickets being the question of how do we know when the analysis is in fact correct.


When the opposite is the case, stated differently, tariffs will 100% of the time lead to an increase in price of x tariffed goods.

As of this moment, that is resolutely disproved by reality, at least in the short term.



Btw, I believed in the law of supply and demand before I became a free marketer. Think of it this way, when a tariff is imposed, it is done to reduce the supply of the tariffed goods.

That is not necessarily true. As I have posited, it is possible to apply a tariff with the intention of forcing the perceived offender to play nicely, both hands on the table. Whether it works remains to be seen. The result a 4% decrease in the commodity price demonstrates that a tariff does not of necessity have to result in higher prices; that other factors may have a more pronounced effect on price. Only time, and the manner in which China chooses to respond, stands to possibly lend clarity on the question for the longer term.


When this is done, it raises the price of the material hopefully to the point where local producers can produce the good and still make some profit. Now imagine if real prices dropped when a tariff is implemented, how would the local producers ever get into the market? If they couldn't make a profit at price level 10, then no way they can do the same at price level 8.

Eminently valid point. However, I suspect the picture may be more complicated and possibly more subtle than this. I had a notion of how and it just zipped right out of my head, so it may be a while before I can respond intelligently to any request I put up. Sorry about that.


So yea, the economic theory better work on this one or else everybody will be screwed.

Not necessarily. What if it proves out that proper application of such tariffing against those not playing nicely can actually result in the offender altering his practices based in circumspectly applied enlightened self-interest? The whole basis of international macroeconomics would be altered for the better in a fundamental way.

The real sticky wickets there, however, would be knowing how much to apply, for how long, knowing when to remove the tariffs, and having the integrity and sense of enlightened self-interest to follow through, rather than give in to greed and power lust. Given that last bit, perhaps we are screwed no matter how this works out. Ugh.


Btw, I think it is still possible for locally produced prices to drop to the pre tariffed good price with time. Just not days after the tariff is imposed.

Well said.

osan
04-07-2018, 09:12 PM
Why are they idle?

Because they're not competitive.

In what way are they not competitive?

Price.

How was it proposed to fix that?

Tariffs.

The tariffs presumably intended to neutralize majority of the advantage of artificially low labor costs, the result of what is effectively a slave-labor market where the cost disparity is on the order of 9x-10x with American labor. Labor is commonly the single greatest factor in determining costs to produce, and by a large margin. In college I worked in various machine, cabinet, and casting shops.

I once worked in a cabinet shop in Long Island City, "Carpentry Unlimited". We built nothing but custom architectural cabinetry for wealthy clients in the NYC metro area. Being low man on the totem, I mostly built carcasses. One such box was for a liquor cabinet of smallish to middling proportions. I built a very nice carcass, square and perfect. To the outer surfaces I applied an off-white Formica-like laminate. To the front, one of the more experienced makers applied Carpathian Elm burl, which in those days (ca. 1982/83) cost $360.00 for a 4x6 sheet. Even though the veneer was very costly, that element was a drop in the bucket when compared with the $35K price tag of the finished cabinet, which was about 6-6.5 feet tall, a smidge under 4' wide, and about twenty four inches deep. All told, the material costs were in the neighborhood of $1000. The rest was all labor and profit. It took me nearly a full week to complete the carcass because it had to be absolutely perfect and there were a few elements of the design that were not quite straightforward in terms of execution. Then Mike did the finish work which was probably on the order of a full two to three weeks, though I no longer quite recall exactly. The labor costs were perhaps 4-5 times that of materials.

On virtually all of the software development projects I have managed, labor represented ca. 90% of the budgetary outlays. On one such project I was responsible for nearly half a billion dollars of allotted monies toward implementation. The hardware costs were trivial in comparison with those of labor - I would estimate ca. 2%-3% of the total. Labor is the killer in most endeavors today and China is artificially depressing their costs in comparison with those found in America to a factor of about ten. Any advantage greater than 50% can definitely be considered as artificially and I consider anything over about 25% as suspect. Competitive advantage in free markets is supposed to be "organic". Tyrannical maintenance of an artificially low labor market prevents other players from being able to compete as the result of felonious treatment of Chinese workers by their government. Nobody with a shred of basic sense is going to claim or agree that a 10x discrepancy in labor costs is due to a natural and valid advantage enjoyed by the Chinese laborer.

In my opinion it was a grave error to have allowed China the opportunity to drag its miserable self out of the stone age. We should have let them fend for themselves, come what may. But what is done is done. China is clearly a bad economic actor and I have no problem with any measures taken to neutralize their artificial and criminally enforced advantages in labor cost, so long as they actually work as intended. As of now, it is not clear that the tariff will produce the desired result, but the one thing that has been demonstrated is the disproof of the assertion that prices would immediately rise. Clearly, there is more going on in the equation than just the effects of the tariff.

So sit back and observe. Conventional theory may prove out. But if it doesn't, there will have opened a door to some intriguing possibilities, as well as hazards, I am fairly certain. TANSTAAFL. :)

osan
04-07-2018, 09:15 PM
Friends can name names, so please name names, friend, so friends have a chance to address specific concerns. Thanks.

Here's one from this very thread: #4 (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?521098-Trump-touts-falling-aluminum-prices-after-tariffs&p=6613321&viewfull=1#post6613321)

enhanced_deficit
04-07-2018, 09:17 PM
U.S. aluminum prices are dropping, despite a 10% tariff imposed ...


Things fall here n there.

Stocks dive as US proposes more China tariffs, Dow falls 700
PBS NewsHour-Apr 6, 2018


https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/5ac4b5217a74af1f008b45bc-750-568.jpg

TheCount
04-07-2018, 09:32 PM
The tariffs presumably intended to neutralize majority of the advantage of artificially low labor costs, the result of what is effectively a slave-labor market where the cost disparity is on the order of 9x-10x with American labor. Labor is commonly the single greatest factor in determining costs to produce, and by a large margin.

Therefore, a fall in the price makes the American manufacturer even less competitive.

I appreciate your support.

Swordsmyth
04-07-2018, 09:34 PM
Things fall here n there.

Stocks dive as US proposes more China tariffs, Dow falls 700
PBS NewsHour-Apr 6, 2018


https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/5ac4b5217a74af1f008b45bc-750-568.jpg

Panic selling, we shall see what happens as time goes by.

enhanced_deficit
04-07-2018, 09:41 PM
Panic selling, we shall see what happens as time goes by.

To be fair, some even had termed Trump election a result of "panic voting",emotonal response to "threats" posed by Bracak Hussein Obama phenomenon post Iraqi freedom revenge war.

osan
04-07-2018, 10:10 PM
From what I have seen on the idiot tube at a friend's place, it would appear China and USA are fixing to get into a trade war. That is, at least, the timbre of he saber-rattling being presented in the news that I have seen today. Who knows whether that is even marginally trustworthy...

It they choose that path, get ready for some lousy times.

The question here for me would seem to be: who stands to benefit from this, and in what ways? MIC?

Anyone?

I don't think we can credibly believe that this will be undertaken through ignorance, as there is far too much historical data to indicate trade wars lead to nothing good, broadly speaking. I certainly do not believe the Chinese would allow ego to drive their decisions. Trump... maybe, but I am as yet not willing to accept that he is that weak and stupid, but you never know. But if the parties in question are not that clued-out or weak-minded, then what would be driving the decision to take this road? After all, we could be talking about economic upheaval for years. It could lead to good old-fashioned hot-warfare. Could that be the objective here?

Swordsmyth
04-07-2018, 11:52 PM
From what I have seen on the idiot tube at a friend's place, it would appear China and USA are fixing to get into a trade war. That is, at least, the timbre of he saber-rattling being presented in the news that I have seen today. Who knows whether that is even marginally trustworthy...

It they choose that path, get ready for some lousy times.

The question here for me would seem to be: who stands to benefit from this, and in what ways? MIC?

Anyone?

I don't think we can credibly believe that this will be undertaken through ignorance, as there is far too much historical data to indicate trade wars lead to nothing good, broadly speaking. I certainly do not believe the Chinese would allow ego to drive their decisions. Trump... maybe, but I am as yet not willing to accept that he is that weak and stupid, but you never know. But if the parties in question are not that clued-out or weak-minded, then what would be driving the decision to take this road? After all, we could be talking about economic upheaval for years. It could lead to good old-fashioned hot-warfare. Could that be the objective here?

Trump is trying to MAGA and collapse China, China is trying to finish off our economy for good.
I'm not sure how the chicken race will end but unless Trump flinches first China will end up worse off than we will.
I hope China has the sense to back down or things will get ugly.

EBounding
04-08-2018, 06:31 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRqxc8ewnC4

juleswin
04-08-2018, 11:25 AM
And did you not discover that such isolations in multivariate systems often would not paint a sufficient causal picture? Synergistic effects based on complex balances of many factors often constitute a vertitable Gordian Knot.

It depends on the type of research you were doing. Ours were mostly genetic research, especially splicing one gene or combining one gene to a cell to see the effect on tumor suppressing. And to be honest with you, it was one gene at a time all the way through my exit from the job. Synergistic effect I guess would be for later studies. Regardless, it is not uncommon for researchers to isolate 1 factor to see the effect it has on a study subject.




I must agree that this seems unlikely. There must be more to the truth than this. It does, however, demonstrate that imposition of a tariff does not perforce lead to a rise - at least not immediately. Once again, complex systems can be painfully difficult to analyze correctly, one of the real sticky-wickets being the question of how do we know when the analysis is in fact correct.

Like you said before, there are other variables at play but when we are talking about tariffs alone which by its nature increases the price of buying the product. If everything else remains the same will always lead to an increase in price. Now those other factors that are at play can dampen or cover up this price change. But non the less, the price change will happen.



As of this moment, that is resolutely disproved by reality, at least in the short term.

The chart I posted earlier actually shows a sharp price increase within the last 3-4 days. Maybe that is just when the price increase showed up but reality actually agrees with me. Aluminium prices did go up after trending downwards since January.


That is not necessarily true. As I have posited, it is possible to apply a tariff with the intention of forcing the perceived offender to play nicely, both hands on the table. Whether it works remains to be seen. The result a 4% decrease in the commodity price demonstrates that a tariff does not of necessity have to result in higher prices; that other factors may have a more pronounced effect on price. Only time, and the manner in which China chooses to respond, stands to possibly lend clarity on the question for the longer term.

Lets assume the intent of this tariff on steel and aluminium is to get China to reduce the tariffs they have on our other goods. Well, if they do that, it would only reduce the prices on those goods and not aluminium. Aluminium price would still be higher since it is now experinceing a higher tax to buy than it was previously getting. Anyway you cut it, aluminium price goes it.


Eminently valid point. However, I suspect the picture may be more complicated and possibly more subtle than this. I had a notion of how and it just zipped right out of my head, so it may be a while before I can respond intelligently to any request I put up. Sorry about that.

Not necessarily. What if it proves out that proper application of such tariffing against those not playing nicely can actually result in the offender altering his practices based in circumspectly applied enlightened self-interest? The whole basis of international macroeconomics would be altered for the better in a fundamental way.

Play nicely could also mean, China adopting a higher minimum wage(as opposed to slave wages) and better environmental standards. I guess this could lead to a better way of doing business. But it would still leave us with higher prices. Circumspectly applied enlightened self interest? that is a load of words to swallow :). But in the case, I think China can argue that their circumspectly applied, enlightened self interest is already being served. They are making money and the US are getting a cheap product.


The real sticky wickets there, however, would be knowing how much to apply, for how long, knowing when to remove the tariffs, and having the integrity and sense of enlightened self-interest to follow through, rather than give in to greed and power lust. Given that last bit, perhaps we are screwed no matter how this works out. Ugh.



Well said.

I think the best tariffs is the one that is big enough to product local producers from cheaper imports flooding the market. One that would target not just the raw material but the finished good and final one that would last long enough for local producers to gain expertise and experience. So the way I look at it, price increase is a good thing because those companies will need to be able to make some profits while they learn to make cheaper products. This is why I respond to this whole idea that a tariff somehow leads to a reduction in prices

Madison320
04-09-2018, 08:37 AM
The question here for me would seem to be: who stands to benefit from this, and in what ways? MIC?

Anyone?


In the short to mid term the US will get killed by a trade war with China, especially if China stops loaning us money.

fcreature
04-09-2018, 09:24 AM
Really not worth anyone's time to respond to something as idiotic as the idea that taxing something helps to lower it's price.

juleswin
04-09-2018, 09:29 AM
Really not worth anyone's time to respond to something as idiotic as the idea that taxing something helps to lower it's price.

Healthy debating amongst friends only helps sharpen your debating skills for when you run into a much tougher topic.

Superfluous Man
04-09-2018, 09:46 AM
Aluminum just went up 4% this morning. So much for that.
http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/t24_al450x275.gif

oyarde
04-09-2018, 09:56 AM
Aluminum just went up 4% this morning. So much for that.
http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/t24_al450x275.gif

Platinum went up 16 dollars this morning and natural gas up 1 percent previous business day . For no reasons I can see .

osan
04-09-2018, 01:13 PM
Trump is trying to MAGA and collapse China

Collapse China? Not sure how you come to that view, but if true, he's on a fool's errand. For one thing, we depend on China for probably at least half our manufactured goods, perhaps more - I've not checked the figures in years. Killing China might be a suicide move.

Furthermore, China is huge. Killing their economy is no mean task. Further still, this is how wars get started. If China faced a return-to-stoneage prospect, an existential threat, I would see them as having nothing to lose by launching a preemptive strike against America even if they knew they could not possibly win. Humans.


China is trying to finish off our economy for good.

I am more inclined to believe this, but only to a degree. If China kills us, it may kill itself. China would certainly injure itself in the short-term, though in terms of a longer view, the price may be worth it. After all, life is very cheap to the Chinese and has been, historically. Those at the top sacrifice those on the bottom without flinching.


I'm not sure how the chicken race will end but unless Trump flinches first China will end up worse off than we will.

How do you reason?

[quote}I hope China has the sense to back down or things will get ugly.[/QUOTE]

Agreed. They are the offenders, economically speaking. If they cannot compete honestly, perhaps they should be isolated. That would take years to make possible, not to mention withdrawal from CAFTA, which IMO would be a good idea... that is, after we reestablish our manufacturing chops here on the mainland.

Swordsmyth
04-09-2018, 01:43 PM
Collapse China? Not sure how you come to that view, but if true, he's on a fool's errand. For one thing, we depend on China for probably at least half our manufactured goods, perhaps more - I've not checked the figures in years. Killing China might be a suicide move.

Furthermore, China is huge. Killing their economy is no mean task. Further still, this is how wars get started. If China faced a return-to-stoneage prospect, an existential threat, I would see them as having nothing to lose by launching a preemptive strike against America even if they knew they could not possibly win. Humans.
Collapsing China might not be the best idea as you say but they are our main geostrategic rival and their economy is much more brittle than it appears on the surface, for those who think that the world is a giant game of RISK collapsing them looks irresistible.




I am more inclined to believe this, but only to a degree. If China kills us, it may kill itself. China would certainly injure itself in the short-term, though in terms of a longer view, the price may be worth it. After all, life is very cheap to the Chinese and has been, historically. Those at the top sacrifice those on the bottom without flinching.
China is playing the same game of RISK that we are only from the side of the weaker new power, if they are to ever dominate the world they must bring us down first.




How do you reason?
It is a question of who's economic house of cards is shakier, I believe China's is in worse shape than ours, I think we will survive and and grow stronger but I think they will collapse.

I also think that China's hold on it's people is more fragile since it is based on fear.

The biggest question is how will their elite's react, I predict they will divide and fight over the shrinking pie, Xi is afraid of that and that is why he has been consolidating power.

Our people can vent their anger at the ballot box and our elite's can compete at it as well, the Chinese don't have that option and will be more likely to resort to arms.



Agreed. They are the offenders, economically speaking. If they cannot compete honestly, perhaps they should be isolated. That would take years to make possible, not to mention withdrawal from CAFTA, which IMO would be a good idea... that is, after we reestablish our manufacturing chops here on the mainland.
China is determined to dominate the world and they will treat the rest of the world much worse than we have if they succeed (including us), letting them get away with their trade policies has been one of the stupidest things the west has done, even if it isn't already too late it will still be difficult to recover from the damage they have done.

devil21
04-09-2018, 01:53 PM
Agreed. They are the offenders, economically speaking. If they cannot compete honestly, perhaps they should be isolated. That would take years to make possible, not to mention withdrawal from CAFTA, which IMO would be a good idea... that is, after we reestablish our manufacturing chops here on the mainland.

Umm, it's not the Chinese or Americans that are the "offenders". Why do you think Nixon went to China with a HUGE delegation back in 1972? The year after the gold window was completely closed? The answer is because the situation with the Chinese that we are talking about now (trade deficits) was required in order to establish and, later continue, the petrodollar standard. All of this blaming China stuff is a smokescreen. The current situation was planned and executed by the same people that are now telling you to decry it. Your perception and perspective of the situation is being controlled and managed.

nikcers
04-09-2018, 02:34 PM
Umm, it's not the Chinese or Americans that are the "offenders". Why do you think Nixon went to China with a HUGE delegation back in 1972? The year after the gold window was completely closed? The answer is because the situation with the Chinese that we are talking about now (trade deficits) was required in order to establish and, later continue, the petrodollar standard. All of this blaming China stuff is a smokescreen. The current situation was planned and executed by the same people that are now telling you to decry it. Your perception and perspective of the situation is being controlled and managed.
The reason why Nixon went to China was to bring capitalism to China- bring capitalism in order to bring their standard of living up and then leave so their economy topples so the people demand a more western government. The China just reacted by parading their nukes on CCTV when their economy was supposed to collapse. The current situation is a reflection of the petrodollar no longer sufficiently containing Russia, especially because we will lose our ability to control the price of oil if they start going after the oil in the arctic.

Superfluous Man
04-09-2018, 02:38 PM
Agreed. They are the offenders, economically speaking. If they cannot compete honestly, perhaps they should be isolated. That would take years to make possible, not to mention withdrawal from CAFTA, which IMO would be a good idea... that is, after we reestablish our manufacturing chops here on the mainland.

It would not take years, and it would not require withdrawal from CAFTA. You and everyone else who wants to can start boycotting them right this second, and convincing others to join you in that voluntarily.

Raginfridus
04-09-2018, 04:16 PM
Our local plumbing and hvac supplier has raised their prices several times since the tariffs were announced. My boss is using Lowes instead now.

osan
04-09-2018, 05:42 PM
Collapsing China might not be the best idea as you say but they are our main geostrategic rival and their economy is much more brittle than it appears on the surface, for those who think that the world is a giant game of RISK collapsing them looks irresistible.

I'm all for wrecking China, since it is pretty clear they have that in mind for me. If Trump is smart, he will make damned sure we are firmly on our industrial feet before making any decisively ruinous move on China. If China went down tomorrow morning, we'd get sucked down as well. So would Europe, not that I give a damn about what happens to them.


China is playing the same game of RISK that we are only from the side of the weaker new power, if they are to ever dominate the world they must bring us down first.


At least to the degree that they could then dictate terms. Our utter destruction would not be in their better interest. Making us their bitch, OTOH, clearly would.


It is a question of who's economic house of cards is shakier, I believe China's is in worse shape than ours, I think we will survive and and grow stronger but I think they will collapse.

Here I must agree. In many ways the Chinese are a very timid people. I don't mean that as an insult; it is just an observation. They definitely do not possess the same drive as Americans, though they work very diligently and for very long hours. The people working at Bibi's hotel in Beijing have ONE weekend off per month. They sleep on a hard floor. During their free weekend, they will rent a room six or more at a time so they can sleep on a bed. It is very sad. Labor is treated very poorly there.

Because so few Chinese have any real opportunity, there would be a very small incentive for them to pull together to save the economy, IMO. Chinese government would almost certainly force them to work at the end of a gun. That's basically what they do now, anyhow.


I also think that China's hold on it's people is more fragile since it is based on fear.

As I wrote, they are VERY subservient. They are bred to it. Things would have to become life-and -death bad to get them to rebel.


The biggest question is how will their elite's react, I predict they will divide and fight over the shrinking pie, Xi is afraid of that and that is why he has been consolidating power.

A few days ago one of their muckety-mucks said China would pay any price to fight America in a trade war. Big words. Dangerous words.

Time will tell.


Our people can vent their anger at the ballot box and our elite's can compete at it as well, the Chinese don't have that option and will be more likely to resort to arms.


They don't have any, so...


China is determined to dominate the world and they will treat the rest of the world much worse than we have if they succeed (including us), letting them get away with their trade policies has been one of the stupidest things the west has done, even if it isn't already too late it will still be difficult to recover from the damage they have done.

Helping them out of the stone age was the worst thing we did. Allowing all our technologies in was a stroke of grand idiocy.

osan
04-09-2018, 05:52 PM
It would not take years,

Unless the barriers to rebuilding our industrial base are relaxed, it most definitely will take years. Just consider the EPA tangle, the hoops through which manufacturers must jump to build new facilities. Such regulations are especially hostile to heavy industries like steel. One doesn't just build a steel mill and begin operating.

Then there are the OSHA requirements, some of which are reasonable, many of which are idiotically designed to protect stupid people from themselves.

There is the tax issue, which also drives companies away. How about zero percent corporate tax?


and it would not require withdrawal from CAFTA.

Not sure that that is true, but I can accept it as a possibility.

Swordsmyth
04-09-2018, 06:05 PM
I'm all for wrecking China, since it is pretty clear they have that in mind for me. If Trump is smart, he will make damned sure we are firmly on our industrial feet before making any decisively ruinous move on China. If China went down tomorrow morning, we'd get sucked down as well. So would Europe, not that I give a damn about what happens to them.
Is it possible to whittle them down to size slowly? At this point I think that whenever their rise stops they will collapse spectacularly.




At least to the degree that they could then dictate terms. Our utter destruction would not be in their better interest. Making us their bitch, OTOH, clearly would.
Yes, they have an export addiction problem, they must try for a controlled demolition of our economy that is just enough to shut down the MIC and not our consumer base, that will be tricky since the MIC will do everything in it's power to outlive the rest of the economy.




Here I must agree. In many ways the Chinese are a very timid people. I don't mean that as an insult; it is just an observation. They definitely do not possess the same drive as Americans, though they work very diligently and for very long hours. The people working at Bibi's hotel in Beijing have ONE weekend off per month. They sleep on a hard floor. During their free weekend, they will rent a room six or more at a time so they can sleep on a bed. It is very sad. Labor is treated very poorly there.

Because so few Chinese have any real opportunity, there would be a very small incentive for them to pull together to save the economy, IMO. Chinese government would almost certainly force them to work at the end of a gun. That's basically what they do now, anyhow.
True but I was thinking more of their statist economy that is overloaded with debt and misallocated resources too a much greater degree than ours.




As I wrote, they are VERY subservient. They are bred to it. Things would have to become life-and -death bad to get them to rebel.



A few days ago one of their muckety-mucks said China would pay any price to fight America in a trade war. Big words. Dangerous words.

Time will tell.



They don't have any, so...
I'm thinking of a factional/regional conflict in which various power brokers start an uprising and arm the populace, their submissive culture won't stand in the way if they are following a leader, the leaders may talk solidarity right now but when the bone supply shrinks there will be too many dogs.




Helping them out of the stone age was the worst thing we did. Allowing all our technologies in was a stroke of grand idiocy.
China is the proof that the last few generations of THEM are stupider than their ancestors.

enhanced_deficit
04-09-2018, 06:14 PM
Things fall here n there.

Stocks dive as US proposes more China tariffs, Dow falls 700

PBS NewsHour-Apr 6, 2018

https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/5ac4b5217a74af1f008b45bc-750-568.jpg

Dow's 400-point rally is nearly erased in final hour on report of FBI raid of Trump's lawyer
The major indexes closed well off their highs after the New York Times reported the FBI raided the office of President Trump's personal lawyer, Michael Cohen.April 9, 2018



It is good that he mixes it up, it would get boring if he kept touting same thing again and again.


Trump touts the stock market
washingtonpost
Jan 30, 2018 - Trump has made a regular refrain of the run-up in stock prices, leaning on it as a proxy for his own performance, since the president remains underwater in public opinion polls.

Trump touts Dow's fast rise
Aug 1, 2017



As long as he does not start touting fast rising debt also that is allegedly about to explode (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?521196-FEDERAL-DEBT-PRIMED-TO-EXPLODE&), it's all good.

osan
04-09-2018, 07:46 PM
Is it possible to whittle them down to size slowly? At this point I think that whenever their rise stops they will collapse spectacularly.

That is perhaps the only way to avoid a shooting war.

The problem with China is that very few of their people can afford the things they make. I think I understand the strategy with the slave labor - get the bulk of the world's manufacturing through the artificially low labor costs. But once that happens, the wages must rise so that your own people can live as something better than penurious hags. The conditions out in the farmlands are pretty bleak.

Not an easy nut to crack.

There is a part of me that is sorely tempted to say nuke every military base and development facility in China and then dictate terms, but I don't think that would fly in today's world.

Now, if you could goad China into doing something stupid... But I don't think they are that foolish. And so the status quo remains, but time is decidedly not on our side. Time is China's friend, unless what you claim regarding growth is indeed so. Then we're pretty well both screwed... that is, unless the two of us would just agree to play nicely with each other. Don't hold your breath for that.


Yes, they have an export addiction problem,

And it is of their own manufacture. By disallowing a free labor market, they keep their people in penury.


they must try for a controlled demolition of our economy that is just enough to shut down the MIC and not our consumer base, that will be tricky since the MIC will do everything in it's power to outlive the rest of the economy.

I'd be more than happy to see the MIC dismantled, were it not for all the enemies we've made. Now we are pretty well forced to support it in order not to be consumed by a world that is becoming ever less patient with us.


True but I was thinking more of their statist economy that is overloaded with debt and misallocated resources too a much greater degree than ours.


But is that even true? I don't see it.

We are a train wreck insofar as debt goes. China, in this sense, owns our asses. I'm not sure their position is as tenuous as you seem to believe. I hope you are right and I am wrong.

But if China collapses, even just under its own weight, we are not going to fare well here... unless we get some true religion. I do believe that we have both the resources and the spirit to re-tool our industrial base in short order, just as we did during WWII. But that would require the dismantling of all the idiotic environmental and OSHA restrictions. Taxation at 0% would be another right step. Repudiate all national debt and start from a clean slate, but that would also require some tweaking of the Constitution.

Basically, we would need to put me in despotic control of the nation for one year. I could do it - especially massaging the Constitution. The power to tax needs to be swept away to at least the pre-Sixteenth conditions, if not those of the AoC. I would structure things such that people in government would live in a state of low-intensity terror for fear of violating the rights of others. Keep your police forces - they COULD serve a valid purpose: investigation of crimes, just to give one example. Any violation of the rights of men would result in draconian consequences such that many would take their own lives in preference. That is how it must be if government is not to wheedle its way back to tyranny. I'd disarm police, if we kept them. They could wear armor, and all they would do is keep watch and investigate crimes - ACTUAL crimes. Then, upon the usual sworn oath and affirmation resulting in a warrant, they would beg assistance from ordinary citizens - ARMED citizens - to form a posse to find and apprehend the suspects. In criminal cases, every evidentiary advantage is given to defendants and every obstacle placed before prosecution. If it results in lots of guilty people going free, I say that is far preferable to unjustly punishing a single man. There is part of the price of being free.

But I digress, as oft I am wont.


I'm thinking of a factional/regional conflict in which various power brokers start an uprising and arm the populace, their submissive culture won't stand in the way if they are following a leader, the leaders may talk solidarity right now but when the bone supply shrinks there will be too many dogs.


Not likely to happen. They are tamed, utterly domesticated people, bred to obey... though they do have opinions. I'm not saying it could not take place, but only that conditions would have to get to the level of what we're seeing in Venezuela before the average Chinaman would consider such a thing. But I like the idea - imagine smuggling 200 million firearms across the border and a trillion rounds of ammo, gleefully taken up by those sick to death of Chinese tyranny.

The real problem, of course, is the same that would arise in just about any other nation: that to which the newly freed people would repair is often worse than that against which they fought. The number of people across the globe who actually understand proper human freedom, I would wager, is less that one percent of one percent.

In order for such revolutions to yield something better than what came before, a solid understanding of what is wanted must be in hand, as well as the determination and courage to see it realized.

Just look at the French Revolution. The destruction part was a piece of cake, relatively speaking. It failed because what came in the wake was called "the terror" with good reason. Those filthy, progressive/communist-like bastards were far and away more lustfully murderous than the aristocrats could ever have been credited. They were mindless butchers with simplistic thought processes who, in the end, proved themselves far and away more corrupt than Louis and his hotbabe.


China is the proof that the last few generations of THEM are stupider than their ancestors.

I am not prepared to accept this at present, though I hope to hell that you prove correct.

I don't think we want to get into a shooting war with China. While our military is vastly superior to theirs, pound for pound, theirs is far and away larger than ours, and they have indeed developed some good weapons. My little brother recently illuminated me to the virtues of the DF 21 and its ability to kill carriers from THOUSANDS of miles away. That is not good news and China has been acting brattish in the South China sea for a number of years now. Those waters have been heating up slowly but steadily. In fact, I believe we have something like three or four carrier battlegroups steaming there as we type, as a show of whose is bigger. Not sure how smart a move it is, but I don't have the intel to be able to say one way or the other.

We are in interesting times. Let us hope they do not get too interesting.

nikcers
04-12-2018, 10:24 PM
I'm all for wrecking China, since it is pretty clear they have that in mind for me. If Trump is smart, he will make damned sure we are firmly on our industrial feet before making any decisively ruinous move on China. If China went down tomorrow morning, we'd get sucked down as well.
Not really- last time their economy was supposed to crash they paraded their ICBM's on CCTV and so they backed off a bit. Now we are back on the TPP train, and Trump has even put anti ICBM thaad systems on the SK border as a clear response to NK's missle program. Now they are going to sell the idea that they are doing it for humanitarian reasons, to stop all the human rights abuses in NK. To save them from the oppressive Chinese regime!!!


SEOUL--The Chinese yuan apparently has growing currency in North Korea and is commonly used in daily transactions such as paying taxi fares and restaurant bills.That's according to hundreds of North Koreans who defected and were surveyed by Lee Jong-kyu, a fellow at South Korea's leading think tank, the Korea Development Institute.
The situation is a far cry from the 1990s, when only 4.9 percent of defectors said foreign currencies, including the U.S. dollar, were commonly used in daily transactions.
Lee's study targeted around 1,000 defectors. The results, released Feb. 28, found that 44.3 percent of defectors between 2011 and 2015 said foreign currencies were often used for transactions. However, 52.5 percent of defectors after 2013 said the yuan is chiefly used nowadays.

osan
04-12-2018, 10:47 PM
Not really- last time their economy was supposed to crash they paraded their ICBM's on CCTV and so they backed off a bit. Now we are back on the TPP train, and Trump has even put anti ICBM thaad systems on the SK border as a clear response to NK's missle program. Now they are going to sell the idea that they are doing it for humanitarian reasons, to stop all the human rights abuses in NK. To save them from the oppressive Chinese regime!!!


I'm not following you here. How does your response relate to my statement?

nikcers
04-12-2018, 10:57 PM
I'm not following you here. How does your response relate to my statement?
I seem to recall the implication that you had inferred if Chinas economy collapsed it would hurt our economy. That is quite the contrary, and that's basically their intention. I guess I could have misread what you wrote or implied if it was something more subtle in the huge post you wrote. If I did misunderstand you then I guess sorry, if not I do disagree, I don't think that if Chinas economy collapsed tomorrow the neocons would miss one night of sleep over it. In fact they would try to egg it on and then incite regime change within their population in order to change up the world order. In the words of Trump, maybe Mexico will be the new China, in terms of trade.

osan
04-13-2018, 08:21 AM
I seem to recall the implication that you had inferred if Chinas economy collapsed it would hurt our economy. That is quite the contrary, and that's basically their intention. I guess I could have misread what you wrote or implied if it was something more subtle in the huge post you wrote. If I did misunderstand you then I guess sorry, if not I do disagree, I don't think that if Chinas economy collapsed tomorrow the neocons would miss one night of sleep over it. In fact they would try to egg it on and then incite regime change within their population in order to change up the world order. In the words of Trump, maybe Mexico will be the new China, in terms of trade.


This is how I see it at present. We are grossly over-dependent on China for a vast array of both consumer products and commodities such as steel, rare-earth elements, and so forth. If their economy goes <poof>, pray tell where will we procure the products and commodities in question in the shorter term if our own manufacturing base is not in place to take over?

I may have chosen my words less than optimally when I wrote that if China's economy goes, so does ours, but we would be negatively affected for a time. Add to that the dire state of weakness of a great multiplicity of Americans. About 10 years ago, for example, the state was late with welfare disbursements in my neck of WV. They were, as I recall, two days late - may have been three - and there were people ready to burn the county to the ground. This is not an isolated condition. What does anyone think that places like Los Angele, NYC, etc., will be like if the inept and dependent people cannot be kept passivated with the "free" stuff to which they have become accustomed? It's not just welfare recipients, either. Consider how many mentally and emotionally weak people there are out there - like college students such as those so commonly encountered in places like Yale, Harvard, Brown, and Evergreen. They have nervous breakdowns when people say things that leave them feeling "marginalized", such as when someone asks "where are you from?" This is deep psychopathology, clinically speaking. Do we believe they will suddenly buck up and become adult just because reality steadfastly refuses to kowtow to the whinging and tantrum pitching as do the administrators at their respective institutions of higher babysitting? I don't see it.

There would be rioting on a mass scale in some locales, methinks.

Don't misunderstand, I think this would be a good thing. Killing a few tens of thousands of stragglers in response to their as-yet unchallenged bad behavior could do nothing wrong in terms of delivering a lesson in hard reality to the rest. But that reality would still likely be as I suspect - unless you have a convincing basis for believing otherwise, to which my mind is wide open.

Europe is in even worse shape. They are at least as badly dependent on Chinese products, but suffer the additional problems of out of control immigration - particularly of people innately hostile to the fundamental fabric of that which constitutes all European culture, no to mention the widespread adoption of net-loss carrying "socialism". While our debt situation is bad, Europe's is even worse, so far as I can tell. The Euro is teetering, as are nations such as Sweden which, in direct spite of the lies told about how successful they are, is balancing on a knife's edge. I do not for a moment believe that Sweden would well survive a large disruption, whether by force majeure or political upheaval such as from a Tet-style attack by jihadist moles.

All this, of course, speaks to shorter term effects - well, maybe not for Sweden as they seem to be well down the path of national suicide, perhaps already past a point of no return. Longer term, barring something really bad like nuclear warfare, we would recover because the American spirit remains very much alive.

On the other side of the coin, China could better weather the effects of economic collapse than could Europe, IMO, because most of China remains just this side of stone-age agrarian in its fabric. Were 100 million Chinese to die over a year's term for lack of the things to which they had become accustomed, I cannot see that their government would be upset about it in the least. They would endeavor to save their brain trust, sacrificing peasants by the millions - perhaps the precise opposite of that which dear Uncle Mao did during his "cultural revolution", where he murdered tens of millions of intellectuals and other "counter-revolutionaries" in his steadfast effort to drive China back into being a stone-age society. Damned shame they got wise, but I digress.

nikcers
04-13-2018, 09:08 AM
This is how I see it at present. We are grossly over-dependent on China for a vast array of both consumer products and commodities such as steel, rare-earth elements, and so forth. If their economy goes <poof>, pray tell where will we procure the products and commodities in question in the shorter term if our own manufacturing base is not in place to take over?

I may have chosen my words less than optimally when I wrote that if China's economy goes, so does ours, but we would be negatively affected for a time. Add to that the dire state of weakness of a great multiplicity of Americans. About 10 years ago, for example, the state was late with welfare disbursements in my neck of WV. They were, as I recall, two days late - may have been three - and there were people ready to burn the county to the ground. This is not an isolated condition. What does anyone think that places like Los Angele, NYC, etc., will be like if the inept and dependent people cannot be kept passivated with the "free" stuff to which they have become accustomed? It's not just welfare recipients, either. Consider how many mentally and emotionally weak people there are out there - like college students such as those so commonly encountered in places like Yale, Harvard, Brown, and Evergreen. They have nervous breakdowns when people say things that leave them feeling "marginalized", such as when someone asks "where are you from?" This is deep psychopathology, clinically speaking. Do we believe they will suddenly buck up and become adult just because reality steadfastly refuses to kowtow to the whinging and tantrum pitching as do the administrators at their respective institutions of higher babysitting? I don't see it.

There would be rioting on a mass scale in some locales, methinks.

Don't misunderstand, I think this would be a good thing. Killing a few tens of thousands of stragglers in response to their as-yet unchallenged bad behavior could do nothing wrong in terms of delivering a lesson in hard reality to the rest. But that reality would still likely be as I suspect - unless you have a convincing basis for believing otherwise, to which my mind is wide open.

Europe is in even worse shape. They are at least as badly dependent on Chinese products, but suffer the additional problems of out of control immigration - particularly of people innately hostile to the fundamental fabric of that which constitutes all European culture, no to mention the widespread adoption of net-loss carrying "socialism". While our debt situation is bad, Europe's is even worse, so far as I can tell. The Euro is teetering, as are nations such as Sweden which, in direct spite of the lies told about how successful they are, is balancing on a knife's edge. I do not for a moment believe that Sweden would well survive a large disruption, whether by force majeure or political upheaval such as from a Tet-style attack by jihadist moles.

All this, of course, speaks to shorter term effects - well, maybe not for Sweden as they seem to be well down the path of national suicide, perhaps already past a point of no return. Longer term, barring something really bad like nuclear warfare, we would recover because the American spirit remains very much alive.

On the other side of the coin, China could better weather the effects of economic collapse than could Europe, IMO, because most of China remains just this side of stone-age agrarian in its fabric. Were 100 million Chinese to die over a year's term for lack of the things to which they had become accustomed, I cannot see that their government would be upset about it in the least. They would endeavor to save their brain trust, sacrificing peasants by the millions - perhaps the precise opposite of that which dear Uncle Mao did during his "cultural revolution", where he murdered tens of millions of intellectuals and other "counter-revolutionaries" in his steadfast effort to drive China back into being a stone-age society. Damned shame they got wise, but I digress.
I just don't see production going down just because their economy goes down- because you are right people will still buy their stuff. It might even cause other countries to be able to buy their stuff easier. The thing with the way America manipulates their currency there would be lots of deflation and if their economy collapsed they would just no longer be able to control the deflation effects. They would become more dependent on other currencies and no longer be able to dump other currencies on the marketplace. Essentially when you don't have good credit you can't really monetize debt and interest in order to manipulate the markets.

osan
04-13-2018, 04:41 PM
I just don't see production going down just because their economy goes down- because you are right people will still buy their stuff. It might even cause other countries to be able to buy their stuff easier. The thing with the way America manipulates their currency there would be lots of deflation and if their economy collapsed they would just no longer be able to control the deflation effects. They would become more dependent on other currencies and no longer be able to dump other currencies on the marketplace. Essentially when you don't have good credit you can't really monetize debt and interest in order to manipulate the markets.

Ah, methinks I see the disconnect - our respective notions of the economy tanking. What I mean is ruin, not recession. Industries tank in their near-entirety.

Anything less than that is an inconvenience. When I say "tanks", I mean "tanks all the way".

Many Americans believe the US economy tanked in 2008 with the election of slime to the Oval Office. Such people are sorely ignorant of what a busted economy looks like. In the wake of burst bubbles and all that, the worst we can say about the American economy was that is experiences a slight bump, which is not to say some people did not lose their shirts, for surely they did. But food, shelter, heat, etc. all remained plentifully available. Compare with post-war Germany where women sold themselves just to have a couple of cigarettes such that they would have some marginal relief from the misery of their daily existences. That is the truer meaning of a downed economy, not mere inconveniences of which soft, weak, ignorant, and characterless people shriek and holler about as if the world were coming to an end.

So now that we perhaps understand one another better, what say you?

nikcers
04-13-2018, 08:36 PM
Ah, methinks I see the disconnect - our respective notions of the economy tanking. What I mean is ruin, not recession. Industries tank in their near-entirety.

Anything less than that is an inconvenience. When I say "tanks", I mean "tanks all the way".

Many Americans believe the US economy tanked in 2008 with the election of slime to the Oval Office. Such people are sorely ignorant of what a busted economy looks like. In the wake of burst bubbles and all that, the worst we can say about the American economy was that is experiences a slight bump, which is not to say some people did not lose their shirts, for surely they did. But food, shelter, heat, etc. all remained plentifully available. Compare with post-war Germany where women sold themselves just to have a couple of cigarettes such that they would have some marginal relief from the misery of their daily existences. That is the truer meaning of a downed economy, not mere inconveniences of which soft, weak, ignorant, and characterless people shriek and holler about as if the world were coming to an end.

So now that we perhaps understand one another better, what say you?
Just because we bailed out the industries doesn't mean they didn't crash. 50% of the people I knew who owned a house lost their house and are making debt payments to the banks that we bailed out. Everyone else is renting forever because they think that buying a house is a big fucking scam.

I know we have been pretending like the crash of 08 wasn't that bad, but I think it really depends on what market you are in. The people who won the election for cheeto Hitler did so because they were apolitical jackasses who thought that they could get back at the political elite and because they were promised a government solution to the 2008 problem that never really ended. If it ended we would have higher wages, not stagnation. They just passed a bunch of tax breaks to hide the wage stagnation.

osan
04-14-2018, 09:29 AM
Just because we bailed out the industries doesn't mean they didn't crash.

Actually, it does. That aside, we were not speaking of industries, but entire economies. BIG difference. It's one thing when your 30' cabin cruiser sinks with 3 people aboard. There is a big difference in degree when a cruise ship with seven thousand people goes under.



50% of the people I knew who owned a house lost their house and are making debt payments to the banks that we bailed out. Everyone else is renting forever because they think that buying a house is a big fucking scam.

That sucks dead bunnies, but it is not the same as having no food.


I know we have been pretending like the crash of 08 wasn't that bad,

The pretending was the opposite - that the world had somehow come to an end, or was about to.

I don't think anyone is saying it wasn't bad - I sure am not. But people were not dying by the millions, if even by the handfuls. I'm sure a few suicides can be rightly linked to the downturn, and as I before acknowledged, many lost their shirts - but the fact that new shirts could be had is prima facie proof that the economy had not come anywhere near to crashing. Had it, the corpses would have been piled high.

When an economy crashes for real, government is unable to bail out people because there is nothing left with which to do so. It is a most dangerously unfortunate habit of men to inflate truth with words unsuited to a circumstance. "Oh my GOD, the economy has CRASHED!!!". No, asshole, it hiccuped or farted and some people were hurt. Nobody went hungry. Hospitals didn't run out of medicines. Fuels didn't become unavailable. Fertilizers didn't disappear, along with entire crops.

A market crash is not good, but it is nothing compared with a general economic crash wherein the transactional infrastructure collapses into rubble. That is very serious business and has happened only a relatively few times throughout human history. Even the black plague didn't quite bring about European economic collapse, though it seems to have come uncomfortably close.

nikcers
04-14-2018, 09:32 AM
Actually, it does. That aside, we were not speaking of industries, but entire economies. BIG difference. It's one thing when your 30' cabin cruiser sinks with 3 people aboard. There is a big difference in degree when a cruise ship with seven thousand people goes under.




That sucks dead bunnies, but it is not the same as having no food.



The pretending was the opposite - that the world had somehow come to an end, or was about to.

I don't think anyone is saying it wasn't bad - I sure am not. But people were not dying by the millions, if even by the handfuls. I'm sure a few suicides can be rightly linked to the downturn, and as I before acknowledged, many lost their shirts - but the fact that new shirts could be had is prima facie proof that the economy had not come anywhere near to crashing. Had it, the corpses would have been piled high.

When an economy crashes for real, government is unable to bail out people because there is nothing left with which to do so. It is a most dangerously unfortunate habit of men to inflate truth with words unsuited to a circumstance. "Oh my GOD, the economy has CRASHED!!!". No, $#@!, it hiccuped or farted and some people were hurt. Nobody went hungry. Hospitals didn't run out of medicines. Fuels didn't become unavailable. Fertilizers didn't disappear, along with entire crops.

A market crash is not good, but it is nothing compared with a general economic crash wherein the transactional infrastructure collapses into rubble. That is very serious business and has happened only a relatively few times throughout human history. Even the black plague didn't quite bring about European economic collapse, though it seems to have come uncomfortably close.
A big ship takes a long time to turn around and a long time to sink. I bet people didn't even think the titanic was sinking because they were convinced that it was unsinkable. Just imagine if a bunch of people started to bail out the water constantly, it would even take longer to sink..


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwTormH7Yvk

Aratus
04-17-2018, 03:13 AM
U.S. aluminum prices are dropping, despite a 10% tariff imposed by President Donald Trump on the metal in early March intended to protect U.S. companies and allow for the creation of new manufacturing plants, one of his main promises during the 2016 presidential election.
The president touted the falling aluminum costs -- down 4% from when the White House first announced the tariffs -- on Twitter early Friday morning.
“Despite the Aluminum Tariffs, Aluminum prices are DOWN 4%. People are surprised, I’m not!” he wrote. “Lots of money coming into U.S. coffers and Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!”

More at: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trump-touts-falling-aluminum-prices-after-tariffs
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WHAT IF THE ECONOMY IS ABOUT TO REALLY TANK...

goldenequity
04-19-2018, 10:29 AM
U.S. ATTEMPTS TO PUT FORCEFUL, SANCTION PRESSURE ON RUSSIA DO NOT LOOK LIKE SEEKING DIALOGUE;
THEY ARE UNDERMINING GLOBAL STABILITY - RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY
(yes. they indeed are.)


--------------

Russia’s aluminum deliveries to Japan halted over US sanctions
http://tass.com/economy/1000715
Russia accounts for about 15% of Japan’s aluminum imports, according to Rusal Japan

https://phototass1.cdnvideo.ru/width/744_b12f2926/tass/m2/en/uploads/i/20180419/1192459.jpg


Teaming up with China...

Russian Aluminum Giant Seeks Rescue From US Sanctions In China
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-19/russian-aluminum-giant-seeking-rescue-us-sanctions-china

One week ago, when we first discussed the upcoming surge in commodity prices - especially aluminum and nickel - following Trump's latest Russian sanctions,
which in turn
sent the stock and bond prices of Russian aluminum giant Rusal crashing amid fears the company
would be unable to access capital markets now that it has become "radioactive" to western banks,
we suggested that it do the next logical thing:
"seek funding in China" or approach Beijing as a market that is exempt from US sanctions: after all, China itself has a ravenous demand for the product.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/rusal%20alu%20giant.jpg?itok=EfAUkfTk

As it turns out, that's precisely what the company - owned by Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska -has done.

----

While Beijing may be able to quietly provide Rusal with funding, China may not be the "all-in" savior Rusal is seeking.

SUPPLY
As a reminder, the world’s biggest aluminum producer has already been cutting excess capacity, and has been exporting, and in some cases dumping,
huge volumes of aluminum products it doesn’t need domestically and exchange warehouses are brimming with record stockpiles.
What’s more, its own aluminum industry is being targeted by U.S. trade tariffs.

“It’s understandable that Rusal is looking for a solution from China as the country is the world’s biggest market of the metal,”
“We’ll see major concerns from the Chinese side amid the current sensitivity in the global trade environment.”

Meanwhile, the most likely outcome is that as US sanctions persist, Russia's aluminum output will remain in limbo,
which will cripple European procurement, as the continent is Rusal's biggest buyer...

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/rusal%20markets.jpg?itok=jeBpq8EF

while sending global supply chain for aluminum -
which is used in everything from planes made by Boeing to Ford trucks to Campbell soup to Budweiser beer cans - in disarray.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ross%20soup_1.png?itok=p8qCB4iD

And since Rusal supplies about 6% of the world’s aluminum or about 17% of production outside China,
and operates mines, smelters and refineries from Ireland to Jamaica,
the impact of recent sanctions has sent aluminum prices soaring to the highest since 2011.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/LME%20aluminum%204.19.jpg?itok=lUSbSLQP

Meanwhile, as the world refuses to accept Rusal's product,
the Russian aluminum giant is said to be stockpiling large quantities of aluminum at one of its plants in Siberia, according to Reuters.
With the firm’s own storage space filling up with unsold aluminum, Rusal executives in Sayanogorsk, in southern Siberia,
have had to rent out additional space to accommodate the surplus stock, one of the sources told Reuters.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/aluminum%20rusla.jpg?itok=QyN5J6kL

DISARRAY
“Aluminum sales have broken down. And now the surplus aluminum is being warehoused in production areas of the factory itself,”

Several people connected to Rusal said that Oleg Deripaska, the company’s main shareholder who along with the company
was included on a U.S. sanctions blacklist, visited Sayanogorsk this week for a closed-door meeting with staff.

Reuters spoke to a contractor at the Sayanogorsk plants who said the stockpiled ingots, stacked on pallets, were building up fast.
He said two days’ worth of production would fill up a five-car train, but already a week had gone by with aluminum piling up.

“Can you imagine a week?” he said. “There’s a hell of a lot there, a hell of a lot. It’s being stockpiled, it’s not being shipped.”

An electrician working for Rusal said the ingots were being squeezed into all available space.

“The storage is not quite full,” said the electrician, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal company affairs.
“Something is still being loaded all the same, some stuff is being shipped.”

* * *

To be sure, the Russian company will hardly give up without a fight:
on Tuesday its Hong-Kong traded shares, which had lost more than 60% since the sanctions were announced last week,
surged nearly 30% to HK$1.81 on speculation Trump will stop, and maybe roll back sanctions.

But until that happens,
Rusal is likely to target sales in alternative markets across the Middle East, Turkey and China
to make up for lost exports to western markets, Morgan Stanley analysts said.

Finally there is the other wildcard: inflation.
As noted above, aluminum and nickel have been driven to multi-year highs as the turmoil unleashed by U.S. sanctions spreads.
On Thursday, aluminum surged to the highest level since 2011, trading at $2,668.50 a ton;
Goldman forecasts prices could surge to $3,000 in the near term as the impact overwhelms the market
and as no new suppliers can ramp up production to take over Rusal's market share.

TheCount
04-19-2018, 04:11 PM
Aluminium prices in the United States have soared and are expected to diverge from those traded on the London Metal Exchange after the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Russian producer Rusal (0486.HK).

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-sanctions-aluminium/soaring-u-s-aluminum-prices-to-diverge-from-lme-after-rusal-sanctions-idUSKBN1HP1AW

Swordsmyth
04-19-2018, 04:55 PM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-sanctions-aluminium/soaring-u-s-aluminum-prices-to-diverge-from-lme-after-rusal-sanctions-idUSKBN1HP1AW
That has nothing to do with the tariffs.

TheCount
04-19-2018, 05:18 PM
That has nothing to do with the tariffs.

Both the tariffs and the sanctions came from Trump.

Swordsmyth
04-19-2018, 05:21 PM
Both the tariffs and the sanctions came from Trump.

One is part of a trade strategy the other is part of an attempt to beat off the Russiaphobia, without the Russiagate witch hunt Trump wouldn't have agreed to the sanction.

TheCount
04-19-2018, 05:26 PM
One is part of a trade strategy the other is part of an attempt to beat off the Russiaphobia, without the Russiagate witch hunt Trump wouldn't have agreed to the sanction.

Russiagate is more important than American workers to Trump?

How many jobs will be lost as part of his personal protection strategy?

Swordsmyth
04-19-2018, 05:31 PM
Russiagate is more important than American workers to Trump?

How many jobs will be lost as part of his personal protection strategy?

Staying in office to keep doing what he believes is good for the country must be balanced against economic pain, I can't say if he chose the right balance or not.

TheCount
04-19-2018, 05:32 PM
Staying in office to keep doing what he believes is good for the country must be balanced against economic pain, I can't say if he chose the right balance or not.

Do you also support his use of war to keep himself in office?

Swordsmyth
04-19-2018, 05:39 PM
Do you also support his use of war to keep himself in office?
I didn't say I supported this and I certainly don't support war.

TheCount
04-19-2018, 05:47 PM
I didn't say I supported this and I certainly don't support war.

Yes you did.



Staying in office to keep doing what he believes is good for the country must be balanced against economic pain, I can't say if he chose the right balance or not.


If you opposed the concept entirely, you would not be ambivalent.

Swordsmyth
04-19-2018, 06:04 PM
Yes you did.





If you opposed the concept entirely, you would not be ambivalent.

You are not usually this stupid, this is zippy level idiocy.
I didn't say I supported it or that I opposed it, if he is thrown out of office his replacement will enact even more sanctions and maybe even start a war with Russia, it is possible that a few sanctions now prevent more later and/or a war, I do not have the necessary information to judge whether he is striking the best balance or not, I oppose the sanctions on principle but most of the blame goes on the RINOs for forcing Trump's hand, I absolutely oppose war and do not believe that it is needed for him to prevent worse things.

goldenequity
04-19-2018, 06:52 PM
Palladium Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-19/palladium-surges-17-9-days-russian-supply-concerns

Palladium bullion has surged a massive 17% in just nine trading days.
From $895/oz on Friday April 6th to over $1,052/oz today (April 19th).

Palladium has surged on concerns about supply from Russia which is the world's largest producer of palladium
with various estimates of its contribution to total global palladium production ranging from 40% to 50%.

Russia and increasingly unstable South Africa control more than three-quarters of the world’s palladium supply, according to Johnson Matthey.
Global palladium demand outstripped supply by 23 tonnes (25.4 tons) in 2017,
so depleted stocks of this very rare and finite metal were already running low.
Palladium is a key component in the global car industry and this will cause difficulties for international car manufacturers.

========


(Just as an aside... the 'bill' being fasttracked through Russian lawmakers to restrict RE and tech metals has now been 'slowed'
to be voted on.... now set for mid-May.
This was supposedly due to a 'Putin request' to temper the rising rhetoric coming from the Russian lawmakers.
Trump for his part on Monday... put a 'crimp' on the next 'round' of Nikki's policy decisions. :) )

Zippyjuan
04-19-2018, 07:42 PM
https://www.npr.org/2018/04/19/603298380/for-one-california-company-trumps-tariffs-have-unintended-consequences


For One California Company, Trump's Tariffs Have Unintended Consequences

In the struggling canned goods industry, Pacific Coast Producers is a survivor, taking some 700,000 tons of fruit grown by California farmers each year and canning it for sale in supermarkets and large institutions such as hospitals.

This year the company, based in Lodi, Calif., is facing another challenge that promises to make turning a profit that much harder: President Trump's tariffs on steel imports.

"That one cost increase is more than half of what we make," says Dan Vincent, the company's president and chief executive.

Pacific Coast Producers' plight underscores some of the unintended consequences of the Trump administration's decision last month to impose 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from other countries. The administration said the tariffs were needed to protect domestic sources of the metals, which are vital for national security.

The tariffs will help steelmakers compete by allowing them to raise their prices, but companies that rely on imported steel products, such as Pacific Coast Producers, will see their costs rise, says Edward Alden, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

"That's why tariffs are a risky strategy in a truly global economy," he says.




He notes that the cost of steel makes up about 20 percent of his company's annual expenses of about $355 million. A 25 percent tariff on steel could thus end up costing the company about $17 million. Its annual profit is about $24 million, he says.


And Vincent points out another irony about the tariffs: Foreign companies that import products such as canned peaches into the United States won't face the same cost increase, because they aren't subject to the tariffs.

"They won't hurt our Chinese competitors at all, because they import a finished good. That's classified as canned peaches. That's not classified as steel. So a steel tariff doesn't apply," Vincent says.

More at link.

The Rebel Poet
04-19-2018, 09:14 PM
One is part of a trade strategy the other is part of an attempt to beat off the Russiaphobia, without the Russiagate witch hunt Trump wouldn't have agreed to the sanction.
Ah, of course:
http://buttonmuseum.org/sites/default/files/SL-the-devil-made-me-do-it-button_busy_beaver_button_museum.pngIs Donald Trump Flip Wilson now?

TheCount
04-19-2018, 09:16 PM
Is Donald Trump Flip Wilson now?

"The Devil" is probably apt.

Isn't that how pretty much everyone on here would have described a Guiliani / Bolton tag team prior to the rise of Trump Delusion?

Zippyjuan
04-19-2018, 09:17 PM
https://reut.rs/2Hb7RFw

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-sanctions-aluminium/soaring-u-s-aluminum-prices-to-diverge-from-lme-after-rusal-sanctions-idUSKBN1HP1AW

Swordsmyth
04-23-2018, 08:03 PM
The U.S. softened its position on sanctions against Russian metals giant United Co. Rusal, sparking a record plunge in aluminum prices.
For the first time, the U.S. Treasury discussed a path for lifting the sanctions on Rusal, saying it would provide relief if Oleg Deripaska (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/id/1859724) relinquished control. It also extended the deadline for companies to wind down dealings with the Russian aluminum producer by almost five months.
Rusal petitioned to be removed from the sanctions list and Treasury granted the extension while it considers the appeal, according to a statement from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
“Rusal has felt the impact of U.S. sanctions because of its entanglement with Oleg Deripaska, but the U.S. government is not targeting the hardworking people who depend on Rusal and its subsidiaries,” Mnuchin said.
Aluminum plunged in response as traders speculated that supply disruptions could ease. Prices fell as much as 9.4 percent, the most ever. U.S. metal producers also dropped, with Alcoa Inc. sliding 12 percent.

More at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/u-s-says-it-would-drop-rusal-sanctions-if-deripaska-sells

dannno
04-23-2018, 08:13 PM
sparking a record plunge in aluminum prices.

People who don't know the future and are anti-Trump really need to stop trying to predict the future.. Well, I mean, they can try and predict the future if they want but they should really refer to it as a prediction rather than a forgone conclusion..

TheCount
06-06-2018, 08:30 PM
http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-aluminum-1y-Large.gif

devil21
06-06-2018, 08:52 PM
http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-aluminum-1y-Large.gif

One company today (Thor, maker of RVs) reported in their earnings that aluminum tariffs are already affecting their bottom line. Raw materials prices rising.

TheCount
06-06-2018, 08:57 PM
One company today (Thor, maker of RVs) reported in their earnings that aluminum tariffs are already affecting their bottom line. Raw materials prices rising.

It's entirely possible and, I think, likely that we will lose more technical, better paying jobs related to the production of finished goods at companies like Thor in order to create a small number of jobs which are related to raw material production. That's taking an economic and developmental step backwards.