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Ronin
12-11-2007, 10:07 PM
Ok boys and girls. If this has been done before forgive me. I got sick of the speculation and wanted to get some numbers. After gathering stats from the historical IA primary turnout here's some math I did.

It assumes a current 7% polling against primary voters that voted in 2004. The 2000 turnout numbers were used to calculate the "What we need" section since it is probably more representative of what the turnout will be this time around (non-incumbent).

These are just raw numbers and there is no real meaning behind them. It would be nice to have a count of donors from IA, but I can't seem to find an accurate value anywhere.

Rep Turnout
2000 Primary 111,734
2004 Primary 88,221

RP Votes Polled 7% (2004) 6,175 [ we currently own these per polls ]

10% 4,998 (111,734 * .1) - 6,175
15% 10,585
20% 16,171
30% 27,345
40% 38,518

Edit: New formula, thanks HighStreet

gpickett00
12-11-2007, 10:09 PM
Those numbers are really small. I hope this Christmas for Ron Paul can push us over the top

Luther
12-11-2007, 10:13 PM
If only 1 percent of the Iowa population (3,000,000) votes for Ron Paul in the Republican caucus, that would be 30,000 votes, possibly enough to win, definitely enough for second or third place. If 2 percent vote for him, he wins easily. That is assuming past voter turnout is approximately predictive of turnout in 2008.

hawkeyenick
12-11-2007, 10:14 PM
GOP turnout will be historically low they are telling us, because of lack of excitement in the GOP field

Highstreet
12-11-2007, 10:15 PM
Ok boys and girls. If this has been done before forgive me. I got sick of the speculation and wanted to get some numbers. After gathering stats from the historical IA primary turnout here's some math I did.

It assumes a current 7% polling against primary voters that voted in 2004. The 2000 turnout numbers were used to calculate the "What we need" section since it is probably more representative of what the turnout will be this time around (non-incumbent).

These are just raw numbers and there is no real meaning behind them. It would be nice to have a count of donors from IA, but I can't seem to find an accurate value anywhere.

Rep Turnout
2000 Primary 111,734
2004 Primary 88,221

RP Votes Polled 7% (2004) 6,175 [ we currently own these per polls ]

10% 10,556 (111,734 - 6,175) * .1
15% 15,834
20% 21,112

Not to quip, but I think you should take 10% of the 111,734, then subtract the 6,175.

10% would only be 4,999
15% 10,585
20% 16,172

It really isn't all that much. Probably found among the undecideds, or jaded Mitt and Huck fans.

saahmed
12-11-2007, 10:16 PM
Donate to operationnh.com (http://www.operationnh.com). They have bought airtime in Central Iowa and are now raising funds for Eastern Iowa. Ron Paul ads are seriously lacking here. I have seen only one and that was 3 weeks ago. In the meantime I am seeing a ton of Huckabee recently, and even some Tancredo.

Highstreet
12-11-2007, 10:17 PM
GOP turnout will be historically low they are telling us, because of lack of excitement in the GOP field

The only excitement in the GOP field is Paul.

Goldwater Conservative
12-11-2007, 10:35 PM
Or, to look at it another way, even if the polls are accurate Paul could still finish third by having double the turnout of the other candidates.

transistor
12-11-2007, 10:47 PM
According to the campaign guy at the rally today in Sioux City, we can win Iowa if we get a dozen votes in each one of Iowa's 1700 precincts