How Much Will Trump Grow The Debt By The End Of His First Term?

[r3volution 3.0]

On January 20, 2017, the US national stood at $19.947 trillion; today it stands at $20.493 trillion.

So, the debt grew by $546 billion in Trump's first year.

With spending increases on the horizon (e.g. for roadz and "defense"), and tax cuts already passed, the deficit will be increasing.

Poll Question: How much will Trump grow the debt by the end of his first term (January 19, 2021)?

*we will count debt as having been added by Trump unless the bill in question was passed over his veto

[oyarde]

End of first term ? Tough to guess , but I will go with between 1.2 and 2.2 .

[dannno]

First option should be $955 billion.

[r3volution 3.0]

First option should be $955 billion.

fixed

Anyway, I'm going with $3.822 trillion (the deficit doubles).

That's assuming there's no new war or recession.

[Swordsmyth]

I don't know and I can't do anything about it so it isn't worth worrying about.
I already want him to have a primary challenge in 2020 and Hitlery would have been worse.

[TheCount]

Hard to say... the infrastructure spending is the magic question mark... he talked a lot about it during the campaign but not a peep since. Going to say definitely $3T or more though.

[r3volution 3.0]

The Trump Budget Legacy: A Permanent $1 Trillion Federal Deficit (https://www.forbes.com/sites/stancollender/2017/10/22/the-trump-budget-legacy-a-permanent-1-trillion-federal-deficit/#46cf6d847a65) (a fairly conservative estimate)

[dannno]

I already want him to have a primary challenge in 2020 and Hitlery would have been worse.

Unfortunately anybody but Rand as a primary challenger is probably going to be worse than Trump.

[Swordsmyth]

Unfortunately anybody but Rand as a primary challenger is probably going to be worse than Trump.

There are other good options but it is true we won't know if we are going to have a better option than DJTvsg until people start their campaigns.

[Krugminator2]

Here is an alternative viewpoint that applies equally to Austrians and leftists. I hear all this screeching from Austrians who think interest rates are too low. Austrians think the Fed is out of control holding rates down artificially and leftists think we need to raise interest raise so that the rates can be lowered in the next recession.

Interest rates are primarily determined by inflation. If the Fed raises rates too much that is going to throw the economy into recession which would then force rates back down because inflation would drop. If you want interest rates to go up, the best way to do that is run a deficit. Inflationary fiscal policy through a tax cut would allow the Fed to offset that with rate hikes, which would stick because the economy wouldn't go into recession.

[Swordsmyth]

Here is an alternative viewpoint that applies equally to Austrians and leftists. I hear all this screeching from Austrians who think interest rates are too low. Austrians think the Fed is out of control holding rates down artificially and leftists think we need to raise interest raise so that the rates can be lowered in the next recession.

Interest rates are primarily determined by inflation. If the Fed raises rates too much that is going to throw the economy into recession which would then force rates back down because inflation would drop. If you want interest rates to go up, the best way to do that is run a deficit. Inflationary fiscal policy through a tax cut would allow the Fed to offset that with rate hikes, which would stick because the economy wouldn't go into recession.

Neg worthy.

[Danke]

Trump? I always thought it was the legislative branch that passed bills...

[Krugminator2]

Neg worthy.


You didn't actually refute it though.

[Swordsmyth]

You didn't actually refute it though.

It's so ridiculous that it doesn't deserve a response.

[Swordsmyth]

Trump? I always thought it was the legislative branch that passed bills...

Unless he vetoes them and is overridden he does get a share of the blame.

[spudea]

I expect the deficit to decline slightly. Medicaid enrollment is declining, Obamacare enrollment is declining, the off budget items for our foreign empire is declining. Tax receipts will be increasing due to the strong economy. So I voted it will average about the same.

[Anti Globalist]

Don't know. But Hillary and Bernie would have added more debt.

[r3volution 3.0]

Here is an alternative viewpoint that applies equally to Austrians and leftists. I hear all this screeching from Austrians who think interest rates are too low. Austrians think the Fed is out of control holding rates down artificially and leftists think we need to raise interest raise so that the rates can be lowered in the next recession.

Interest rates are primarily determined by inflation. If the Fed raises rates too much that is going to throw the economy into recession which would then force rates back down because inflation would drop. If you want interest rates to go up, the best way to do that is run a deficit. Inflationary fiscal policy through a tax cut would allow the Fed to offset that with rate hikes, which would stick because the economy wouldn't go into recession.

Austrians don't just "want interest rates to go up."

We want interest rates to reflect supply and demand for savings, as we want wages to reflect supply and demand for labor, etc.

[Krugminator2]

Austrians don't just "want interest rates to go up."

We want interest rates to reflect supply and demand for savings, as we want wages to reflect supply and demand for labor, etc.

The market already is almost entirely in control of rates. I mostly made that post because I know it will torque most who read it but I won't derail your thread.

Simple question you should answer to yourself. Interest rates were under 5% in 1976 and rose to 20% by 1981. Does that mean Fed policy was really tight during that time or in your words were rates moving to reflect the supply and demand of savings? If you answer yes to either, then why did inflation skyrocket at the same time?

[oyarde]

Unfortunately anybody but Rand as a primary challenger is probably going to be worse than Trump.

Probably . I would not even look for any serious competition and if Trump does not win , I predict Pence to be the next nominee .

[oyarde]

Don't know. But Hillary and Bernie would have added more debt.

Bernie would have renamed it and called the debt Bonus Points or something more positive .

[oyarde]

I expect the deficit to decline slightly. Medicaid enrollment is declining, Obamacare enrollment is declining, the off budget items for our foreign empire is declining. Tax receipts will be increasing due to the strong economy. So I voted it will average about the same.

That would actually be good .

[KEEF]

Like all of his predecessors, he will make it grow. Except he will have it grow HEWG! It will be the biggest deficit any deficit will ever be.

[RonZeplin]

Poll needs more options. Bush doubled the deficit and Obama tripled it, so The Donald must do more to reach MAGA. Muh roads!

[nikcers]

Here is an alternative viewpoint that applies equally to Austrians and leftists. I hear all this screeching from Austrians who think interest rates are too low. Austrians think the Fed is out of control holding rates down artificially and leftists think we need to raise interest raise so that the rates can be lowered in the next recession.

Interest rates are primarily determined by inflation. If the Fed raises rates too much that is going to throw the economy into recession which would then force rates back down because inflation would drop. If you want interest rates to go up, the best way to do that is run a deficit. Inflationary fiscal policy through a tax cut would allow the Fed to offset that with rate hikes, which would stick because the economy wouldn't go into recession.
The Fed can't control investment - mal investment will create a bigger recession when stuff is over-valued and the price corrects. It's like the stock market, its way over valued and due for a correction.

[Danke]

Unless he vetoes them and is overridden he does get a share of the blame.https://i.ytimg.com/vi/tVlBQtfbiYU/maxresdefault.jpghttps://images-cdn.9gag.com/photo/a4Z6nzp_700b.jpg

[r3volution 3.0]

The market already is almost entirely in control of rates. I mostly made that post because I know it will torque most who read it but I won't derail your thread.

Even if that were true, "almost entirely" isn't good enough.

Also, the problem isn't limited to the Fed's direct interventions in the market.

The very existence of the Fed as lender of last resort distorts the market.


Simple question you should answer to yourself. Interest rates were under 5% in 1976 and rose to 20% by 1981. Does that mean Fed policy was really tight during that time or in your words were rates moving to reflect the supply and demand of savings? If you answer yes to either, then why did inflation skyrocket at the same time?

If the crux of your argument is that the Fed has no effect on markets, why should it exist at all?

[Zippyjuan]

Trump? I always thought it was the legislative branch that passed bills...

Presidents don't control the debt. You are right.

[Zippyjuan]

The market already is almost entirely in control of rates. I mostly made that post because I know it will torque most who read it but I won't derail your thread.

Simple question you should answer to yourself. Interest rates were under 5% in 1976 and rose to 20% by 1981. Does that mean Fed policy was really tight during that time or in your words were rates moving to reflect the supply and demand of savings? If you answer yes to either, then why did inflation skyrocket at the same time?

Interest rates do tend to follow the inflation rate. Interest rates have three parts-

1) the expected rate of inflation during the time of the loan.
2) the desired rate of real return
3) a risk factor the lender adds for the perceived risk of the borrower defaulting. The riskier the borrower, the higher the premium.

As for the 20% rates, the Fed did crank up rates at that time to try to fight soaring inflation which had hit double digits. The higher rates did slow the inflation rate- and the economy which went into a recession with 10% unemployment. After that passed, the economy and inflation calmed down a lot.

[Krugminator2]

The very existence of the Fed

If the crux of your argument is that the Fed has no effect on markets, why should it exist at all?

The Fed shouldn't exist.

The Fed caused the inflation in the 1970s. Interest rates kept going up in the 70's because the Fed wasn't sufficiently slowing money growth. Interest rates are the tail and inflation is the dog. Rates are low today because the Fed policy kept the economy from expanding which would have caused rates to rise on their own.


The Fed’s ability to affect real rates of return, especially longer-term real rates, is transitory and limited. Except in the short run, real interest rates are determined by a wide range of economic factors, including prospects for economic growth — not by the Fed.




After the U.S. experience during the Great Depression, and after inflation and rising interest rates in the 1970s and disinflation and falling interest rates in the 1980s, I thought the fallacy of identifying tight money with high interest rates and easy money with low interest rates was dead. Apparently, old fallacies never die.






Even these gold standard supporting Austrians use this view. As far as I can tell, the only libertarians/Austrians who don't support this view have an affiliation with the Mises Institute.
https://www.alt-m.org/2016/12/01/fed-holding-interest-rates/

"The unvarnished truth is that interest rates have been low since the last months of 2008, not because the Fed has deliberately kept them so, but in large part owing to its misguided attempt, back in 2008, to keep them from falling in the first place."
https://www.alt-m.org/2016/07/06/why-are-interest-rates-so-low/

[enhanced_deficit]

"On January 20, 2017, the US national stood at $19.947 trillion"

US national debt surpassed $27 trillion, hitting $27.05 trillion as of October 5, 2020:

https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/US-Gross-National-Debt-2011-through-Oct-2020-10-07.png



"out the wazoo" was not among poll choices though.

Poll Results: How Much Will Trump Grow The Debt By The End Of His First Term?


$955 billion (the deficit drops 75% going foreward)

0%


$1.365 trillion (the deficit drops 50%)

0%


$2.184 trillion (the deficit remains the same)


22.22%


$3.822 trillion (the deficit doubles)


44.44%


$5.460 trillion (the deficit triples)


33.33%









(https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/06/us-national-debt-spiked-by-1-5-trillion-in-6-weeks-to-25-trillion-fed-monetized-90/)

[Anti Globalist]

With the rate the debt has been increasing the last few months, it's probably going to be 28 or 29 trillion now. If he get a second term, its easily going to be over 30 trillion.

[enhanced_deficit]

With the rate the debt has been increasing the last few months, it's probably going to be 28 or 29 trillion now. If he get a second term, its easily going to be over 30 trillion.

1O trillion jump by 'king of debt' in 1st term and only 1 trillion in 2nd term.. that estimate seems bit odd.

ETA: Nevermind, even $40T will be "over 30 trillion", so that estimate is good.

[r3volution 3.0]

What comes after out-the-wazoo...?

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/05/17/69/05176913e22797dadf4a525c4fdcf0da.jpg

[TheCount]

This thread reminds me of the old days, when faux-conservatives pretended to be appalled by Obama's deficit spending...


It was a simpler time.

[r3volution 3.0]

This thread reminds me of the old days, when faux-conservatives pretended to be appalled by Obama's deficit spending...


It was a simpler time.

I predict a sudden resurgence of interest in the topic around, say, January 20, next year.

[enhanced_deficit]

One could argue that $3-10 Trillion that this "surprise expense (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?549979-If-Rudy-Giuliani-is-telling-the-truth-Trump-re-election-chances-would-sink&p=6988644&viewfull=1#post6988644)" may end up costing was not due to "trade war wins" celeberated again and again ( it's another story that actually China trade deficit widened under Trumpwatch).
But what was excuse for setting new record in MIC spending, big gummit spending and further expansion of globalal policeman interventions if we can't even manage our spebding budget?

Trump sharply increases military spending

2019: Trump sends 14,000 more US troops to mideast

"America First"
2017: In first, US establishes permanent military base in Israel (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?544161-Trump-Turned-Out-to-be-a-Super-Zionist-Troops-Aren-t-Home-Debt-Huge-Bernie-do-Better&p=6988580&viewfull=1#post6988580)

[Pauls' Revere]

What comes after out-the-wazoo...?

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/05/17/69/05176913e22797dadf4a525c4fdcf0da.jpg

WE GO FULL RETARD.