Do you believe Trump will complete his first term?

[enhanced_deficit]

Wall Street is at all time high, consumer confidence and economy seem to be doing well (if you put aside 'sugar high' deficit spending naysayers' naysaying for a moment), the Wall is being planned, North Korea is on the run/its nuke missile threats are being aggressively managed by Trump tweets and US embassy in Israel is moving to Jerusalem. So on paper GOP/Trump's political future should look bright but it might not be going by early signs about next elections. Questions about mental fitness and character of current POTUS are front and center in political mainstream, Dems are energized and Trump seems to be losing support of hardcore conservative voices like Steve Bannon, Ann "In Trump We Trust" Coulter and others, special counsel apparently will be investigating financial business deals of Kushner-Trump over allegations of money laundering.

In any case, do you believe Trump will complete his first term?



Related

Lewandowski: Trump could face impeachment effort if Dems take Congress (https://nypost.com/2018/01/14/lewandowski-trump-could-face-impeachment-effort-if-dems-take-congress/)

By Mark Moore January 14, 2018

Donald Trump’s former campaign manager said the president will have a “real problem” – including facing an impeachment effort – if Democrats take control of Congress during the 2018 midterm elections.
“If you look at the numbers, I think we’ve got 32 or 33 Republican members of Congress who have already announced they are not seeking reelection,” Corey Lewandowski told John Catsimatidis on AM station 970 on Sunday. (https://omny.fm/shows/cats-interviews/corey-lewandowski) “The problem with that is the Democrats only have to take back 24 seats in the House in order to take over. And if that happens, we’ve got a real problem.”
He said the Democrats are “exceptionally motivated” to run campaigns against Trump, and if successful they will dismantle the president’s agenda and then the president.


Trump’s immigration meeting was lowest day of presidency: Ann Coulter (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?518194-H-1B-Visas-Would-Not-Be-Extended-Under-Trump-s-Latest-Proposal-Reports-Say&p=6574178&viewfull=1#post6574178)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHzUOLOC5eQ[/QUOTE]


Is Mr. Trump Nuts?

By THE EDITORIAL BOARD
JAN. 10, 2018
https://static01.********/images/2018/01/11/opinion/11thu1a/11thu1a-master768.jpg

Is Donald Trump mentally fit to be president of the United States? It’s an understandable question, and it’s also beside the point.
Understandable because Mr. Trump’s behavior in office — impulsive, erratic, dishonest, childish, crude — is so alarming, and so far from what Americans expect in their chief executive, that it cries out for a deeper explanation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/10/o...rump-nuts.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/10/opinion/is-mr-trump-nuts.html)

https://img.washingtonpost.com/news/comic-riffs/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2017/08/FIREFURY-hajjaj.jpg

Newsweek: 'Trump Impeachment Odds Rise After Explosive 'Fire and Fury' Book Revelations'

(http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?518243-Newsweek-Trump-Impeachment-Odds-Rise-After-Explosive-Fire-and-Fury-Book-Revelations&)
https://i2.wp.com/snn.bz/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/donald-trump-stormy-daniels.jpg?fit=267%2C336&ssl=1

One month before 2016 election, lawyer paid $130k to silence adult-film star over sexual encounter with Trump: WSJ report (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?518406-MSNBC-host-goes-low-dredges-up-Trump-father-s-arrest-at-KKK-meeting-grandfather-brothel-hote&p=6573829&viewfull=1#post6573829)


Pence told RNC he could replace Trump on ticket after 'Access Hollywood' tape came out: report
At the time, there was reportedly talk about making Pence the nominee and former secretary of State Condoleezza Rice his running mate.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administ...t-after-access (http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/363258-pence-told-rnc-he-could-replace-trump-on-ticket-after-access)


https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQc1qRPqnrbf0FCWay-tAFYOgxzt8RIWBB-uUe_kuI3vM8akhFA5CmS8iyoCA1_eXfnGmJkpKvUJA (http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/09/politics/republicans-house-gop/index.html)
House Republicans are sprinting for the exits ahead of 2018 midterms
(http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/09/politics/republicans-house-gop/index.html)CNN Jan 10, 2018

Book claims Trump's son-in-law Kushner urged sacking of FBI director to protect family fortune (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?518210)

(Caution, MSM polls' accuracy lately has been very questionable at best)
Support for Donald Trump’s Impeachment Is Higher than His Re-election Chances
12/20/17
http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-impeachment-reelection-2020-753546

[Sola_Fide]

One can only hope that the government gets involved in a long distracting impeachment saga. Then, maybe not as much legislation will be passed.

[enhanced_deficit]

Not sure about impeachment level distraction, but prospects for general distractions seem pretty healthy. So you might not be entirely disappointed in any case : -)

[TheTexan]

Uh yes. This has been a great term, and you've seen nothing yet. Its going to get even better just wait and see

[nikcers]

Do you think America will last his first term?

last president
About 777,000,000 results
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United States of America/President
Donald Trump

[kahless]

Not going to happen, just wishful thinking for some. Be careful what you wish for, impeaching Trump would result in a Pence Presidency.

[Anti Globalist]

Yes he will complete his first term.

[Sola_Fide]

Not going to happen, just wishful thinking for some. Be careful what you wish for, impeaching Trump would result in a Pence Presidency.

What's the difference? All the same.

[RonZeplin]

Javanka is too BIG to fail.

[enhanced_deficit]

This analysis might seem bit skewed but such narratives are gaining momentum in recent days.

Trump's nightmare

Trump's day of reckoning ... The one thing that could dramatically diminish President Trump’s chances of avoiding impeachment and chalking up legislative wins is Democrats winning the House.



And, thanks to series of recent developments, Trump knows this no longer just seems plausible, but probable.




Hill sources tell us that a House Democratic takeover is now likely.
One strategist close to Republican leaders believes that a loss of the House is "baked in," and said top Republicans don't see a way to avoid it.
It would take a flip of 24 seats for Dems to take over. The average loss for the president's party in his first midterm is about 32 seats, and we're hearing forecasts of 40+ losses.

You can’t predict outcomes this far out, but these hard facts scare the hell out of Republicans:


Eight House GOP chairs have retired: You don’t climb to the top of power in Congress and leave unless you feel confident your reign will soon end. (Another factor: Chairmanships are term-limited from a Gingrich-era reform.)
Record retirements for GOP: Already, 29 GOP seats are open, a pace far exceeding the past two elections that saw power change hands.
Democrats outperformed their norms in turnout, and in total votes, in all seven 2017 elections. This is a clear indicator of energy.
Record number of Democratic women voting and considering running for office. This, more than anything, is a reaction to Trump and the #MeToo movement.
In polls, voters prefer Democrats for Congress by a 10-point margin. There is no way to spin this: +10 is terrible in a 50/50 nation.



The takeaway: With a Democratic House, Trump faces not only a high risk of impeachment proceedings, but hostile chairs with subpoena power who can tie up the administration with hearings and document requests.

https://www.axios.com/trumps-nightmare






What's the difference? All the same.

On most policies might not be big difference but in political staff/media/gender relations they seem to be poles apart.
Is Mike Pence the answer to avoiding sexual harassment?

Dec 9, 2017 - The Pence Rule is smart to guard your heart. Pence had a rule while he was in Congress that if he needed an aide to stay late in the office and work with him it had to be a male assistant. He has a rule saying he would never dine alone with a woman who is not his wife
https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/ej-montini/2017/12/09/mike-pence-rule-men-women-sexual-harassment/935101001





Javanka is too BIG to fail.

Early reporting is not always fully accurate but there could be potentially some trouble ahead for some key members of Javanka camnp if this has basis:

Former FBI investigator: ‘I think Kushner is criminally exposed’ on Russia and money laundering

David Ferguson
14 Jan 2018

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/01/former-fbi-investigator-i-think-kushner-is-criminally-exposed-on-russia-and-money-laundering/

[The Gold Standard]

Who the fuck cares?

[pcosmar]

Who the $#@! cares?

voted not sure,,
I expect he will,and see no particular reason he would not..

but anything can happen.

[Cleaner44]

Yes he will finish.

I made easy money betting on him to win in 2016 thanks to someone here turning me on to PredictIt. Made 5 to 1 on my money.

Looking forward to making more money from silly liberals betting on stupid stuff.

https://www.predictit.org/

[enhanced_deficit]

but anything can happen.

"Sloppy Steve" could happen.

[enhanced_deficit]

Bit surprising view, thought US News & WR was in pro Trump camp.


The Eye of the Storm

From Stormy Daniels to Girther-ism to a government shutdown, not all Trump problems are created equal.

By Robert Schlesinger, Managing Editor
Jan. 19, 2018, at 6:00 a.m.

There's a storm brewing and it's not named Daniels. Neither is it related to matters of the president's waistline so much as his inability to get his arms around more than a bumper-sticker conception of policy.

The government teeters on the brink of shutting down, and doing so under one-party rule for the first time since it became a weaponized practice during the Clinton years. Why? In no small part because the self-proclaimed master of the "Art of the Deal" has proven incapable of actually closing one.

And yet this week has illustrated the clowns-with-a-firehose quality of the news coming out of the White House circus. It comes with such velocity and in such volume that it can sometimes be hard to distinguish ephemera and sideshow stories from more important and impactful news.

https://www.usnews.com/dims4/USNEWS/08f6ec5/2147483647/resize/300x%3E/quality/85/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.beam.usnews.com%2Fcc%2Ff3% 2F5054e806413693e9915cff2dd435%2F180119reportschle s-quote-graphic.schles_quote

Take the unfolding revelations about President Donald Trump and his erstwhile relationship with Stephanie Clifford, a porn star who goes by the name Stormy Daniels. The president reportedly had an affair with the actress a dozen or so years ago and his lawyer arranged a $130,000 payment (https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2018-01-12/report-trump-lawyer-brokered-130-000-payment-to-porn-star) in the final weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign to keep her from telling her story in the press. Various news outlets (http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/01/546357/) were chasing down the story that fall but it didn't break until The Wall Street Journal unveiled the payments last week (https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-lawyer-arranged-130-000-payment-for-adult-film-stars-silence-1515787678).

This is a telling if not especially surprising story about Trump the husband, Trump the father (the affair reportedly started shortly after his youngest son was born) and Trump the truth-teller (he and his lawyer have denied the affair and apparently laid out six figures to maintain the untruth); I'm not sure it tells us much new about Trump the president though (that he's a lying philanderer is hardly news) or about his fitness for office. Put another way, if you didn't think that Bill Clinton lying about a consensual affair was a high crime and/or misdemeanor it's not clear why matters should be different with Trump. (Though there's no question that if a Democratic president had a similar problem it would be a conservative media monomania.)

(One caveat: As The MaddowBlog's Steve Benen observes (http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/new-details-emerge-surrounding-trumps-stormy-daniels-controversy), the provenance of the $130,000 does bear scrutiny: "Because if Trump World relied on campaign or foundation money for the alleged payment, there are important legal questions that the president and his team may need to answer.")

https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2018-01-19/sorting-trumps-problems-from-stormy-daniels-to-a-government-shutdown





There are reports suggesting "sloppy Steve", who Trump got fired from all jobs, will be cooperating with special counsel after having made money laundry allegations against Trump family members as reported in controversial "Fire and Fury".


Bannon Agrees to Cooperate With Mueller Inquiry

By MICHAEL S. SCHMIDT JAN. 17, 2018


https://static01.********/images/2018/01/18/us/politics/18dc-bannon/merlin_132382196_8c23c0c5-59cc-4a2d-9b3e-8096b87e93c9-master768.jpg
Stephen K. Bannon, President Trump’s former chief strategist, will be interviewed by the special counsel’s investigators in the Russia inquiry. Credit Tom Brenner/The New York Times WASHINGTON — Stephen K. Bannon, President Trump’s former chief strategist, will be interviewed by investigators working for the special counsel in the Russia investigation instead of testifying before a grand jury, according to a person familiar with the matter, a sign that Mr. Bannon is cooperating with the inquiry.
The special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, had subpoenaed Mr. Bannon (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/us/politics/steve-bannon-mueller-russia-subpoena.html) to appear before a grand jury this week. But Mr. Bannon has agreed to cooperate with Mr. Mueller’s investigation and will be interviewed in the less formal setting of the special counsel’s offices in downtown Washington.
It was not clear why Mr. Mueller subpoenaed Mr. Bannon and did not first ask him to sit for an interview, as Mr. Mueller had done with more than a dozen current and former White House officials who were questioned in recent months. Mr. Mueller could still call Mr. Bannon to appear before a grand jury after he meets with investigators.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/17/us/politics/steve-bannon-mueller-special-counsel-investigation-interview.html

[r3volution 3.0]

He'll very likely finish his first term (reelection is another matter).

[DamianTV]

Thread title immediately makes me think of this news article:

Remember The CIA’s Heart Attack Gun? CNN Predicts That President Trump Will Die From A Heart Attack
http://www.shtfplan.com/conspiracy-fact-and-theory/remember-the-cias-heart-attack-gun-cnn-predicts-that-president-trump-will-die-from-a-heart-attack_01182018


Revealed by the Church Committee in 1975, the “heart attack gun” is a modified 1911 that can shoot a dart with a deadly poison that’s nearly undetectable – which is perfect for political assassinations.

“The poison was frozen into some sort of dart and then it was shot at very high speed into the person,” said CIA whistleblower Mary Embree. “When it reached the person it would melt inside them, and there would be a tiny red dot on their body, which was hard to detect.”

“There wouldn’t be a needle or anything like that left in the person.”

[Swordsmyth]

Thread title immediately makes me think of this news article:

Remember The CIA’s Heart Attack Gun? CNN Predicts That President Trump Will Die From A Heart Attack
http://www.shtfplan.com/conspiracy-fact-and-theory/remember-the-cias-heart-attack-gun-cnn-predicts-that-president-trump-will-die-from-a-heart-attack_01182018

...



CNN keeps predicting Trump will die of a heart attack, which brings to mind the CIA poison dart gun that can trigger one.
Revealed by the Church Committee in 1975, the “heart attack gun” is a modified 1911 that can shoot a dart with a deadly poison that’s nearly undetectable – which is perfect for political assassinations.
“The poison was frozen into some sort of dart and then it was shot at very high speed into the person,” said (https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/644439/CIA-heart-attack-gun-Mary-Embree-Frank-Church-William-Colby) CIA whistleblower Mary Embree. “When it reached the person it would melt inside them, and there would be a tiny red dot on their body, which was hard to detect.”
“There wouldn’t be a needle or anything like that left in the person.”


But for Trump to suddenly die of a heart attack from “natural causes,” the public must be conditioned to believe he was at risk for one.
Conveniently enough, CNN now has this weird obsession with Trump’s “risk” of a heart attack

More at: https://www.infowars.com/remember-cias-heart-attack-gun-cnn-predicts-trump-will-die-from-heart-attack/

[enhanced_deficit]

It appears John Kerry is a "No" vote on this :

Report: John Kerry Told the Palestinians that Trump Could Be Out of Office Within A Year (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?518757-Report-John-Kerry-Told-the-Palestinians-that-Trump-Could-Be-Out-of-Office-Within-A-Year&)
AP
by Aaron Klein 27 Jan 2018

TEL AVIV — Former Secretary of State John Kerry reportedly attempted to sabotage the Trump administration’s attempts to broker Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, urging the Palestinian Authority not to “yield to President Trump’s demands,” and suggesting that President Donald Trump could be out of office within a year.

The report originated with Israel’s Maariv daily newspaper, and cited a senior Palestinian Authority official describing a meeting in London between Kerry and a close associate of PA President Mahmoud Abbas, Hussein Agha. Agha, who helped lead previous talks on behalf of Abbas, related the alleged details of the talk to PA officials, Maariv reported.
Citing his own newspaper, Maariv columnist Ben Caspit wrote (http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Kerry-to-Abbas-confidante-Stay-strong-and-do-not-give-in-to-Trump-539643) in the Jerusalem Post:
During the conversation, according to the report, Kerry asked Agha to convey a message to Abbas and ask him to “hold on and be strong.” Tell him, he told Agha, “that he should stay strong in his spirit and play for time, that he will not break and will not yield to President [Donald] Trump’s demands.”
According to Kerry, Trump will not remain in office for a long time. It was reported that Kerry said that within a year there was a good chance that Trump would not be in the White House.
A spokesman for Abbas did not immediately return a Breitbart News request seeking comment on Kerry’s alleged actions.
Fox News reported (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/01/25/john-kerry-reportedly-coaches-palestinians-not-to-yield-to-trump-in-peace-talks-spurring-backlash.html) that the State Department declined to comment on the matter.
In a statement (https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/patrick-goodenough/did-john-kerry-advise-palestinian-leader-abbas-wait-out-trump), the Republican Jewish Coalition ripped Kerry’s alleged remarks as “reckless.”

[parocks]

Impeachment doesn't mean that the impeached President doesn't finish his term. See: Bill Clinton.

I don't think Trump gets impeached, but even if he was, the Democrats would need 2/3ds of the Senate.

[Zippyjuan]

Impeachment doesn't mean that the impeached President doesn't finish his term. See: Bill Clinton.

I don't think Trump gets impeached, but even if he was, the Democrats would need 2/3ds of the Senate.

Just to get impeachment out of the Judiciary Committee would require 21 votes to start proceedings. Currently there are 17 Democrats and 24 Republicans so three Republicans would have to agree. If everybody votes party line, that fails. Then you need a simple majority in the House. House has 238 Republicans and 193 Democrats (four vacancies). That means that eighteen Republicans would have to favor impeaching Trump.

If those unlikely scenarios come to fruition, the Senate holds hearings and votes afterwards. Unlike the House, the Senate requires two thirds (67 votes) to convict on impeachment. That would require 18 Senate Republicans plus the two independent seats to vote yea along with all of the Democrats. Also not likely.

If he leaves office, it will not be due to impeachment. (noting that the House and Senate numbers could change after the 2018 election).