Study: Even With Dynamic Scoring, GOP Tax Bill Still Blows Up The Deficit

[Zippyjuan]

The CBO says it will not be able to provide a full analysis of the Senate tax bill before voting takes place later this week. They have not completed such a study on the House bill which passed there a couple weeks ago but the Tax Policy Center did a rough analysis. Debt will be higher and growth lower than projections.


On Monday, the Tax Policy Center released a new analysis of the House tax bill that disproves claims from GOP leadership and the Trump administration that the deep tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy will create so much economic growth that the bill will pay for itself.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin recently insisted that “not only will this tax plan pay for itself, but it will pay down debt.” White House economic adviser Gary Cohn agreed, saying that “we can pay for the entire tax cut through growth over the cycle.”

Yet the new study by the Tax Policy Center finds that while the bill would somewhat boost the nation’s economic output, leading to more revenue for the government, it would not be enough to offset the revenue lost by the tax cuts. The net effect of the bill would be to increase the deficit by $1.27 trillion over 10 years.

The estimated growth would be lower than promised and the impact would diminish over time. The Tax Policy Center estimates that the tax cuts would increase the U.S. GDP by 0.6 percent in 2018, 0.3 percent in 2027, and 0.2 percent in 2037.

The revenue generated by the growth would be about $169 billion over 10 years—a drop in the bucket to the revenue the government would lose over that same period.

This study echoes the findings of other analyses—including one conducted by President Trump’s alma mater, the Wharton School of Business—showing that even when taking growth into account through so-called dynamic scoring, the tax bill would still balloon the deficit.

[Zippyjuan]

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/senate-tax-reform-bill-would-add-14-trillion-to-deficits-economic-analysis-isnt-available-yet-cbo/article/2641702


Senate tax reform bill would add $1.4 trillion to deficits, economic analysis isn't available yet: CBO

Congress' official budget office said Sunday an analysis of how the Senate Republican tax bill would affect the American economy isn't available yet, even as the GOP hopes to vote on the bill this week.

The Congressional Budget Office published an analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act finding it would add roughly $1.4 trillion to federal deficits over a decade, in line with earlier estimates of the bill's cost produced as it moved through committee earlier this month.

A macroeconomic score of the bill would provide a benchmark for a key claim of the Trump administration and congressional Republicans — that the tax overhaul will partly or wholly pay for itself by stoking faster economic growth.

Some Senate Republicans, such as Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee, have said they will not vote for the bill unless credible analysis suggests it won't add to the deficit, once the possibility of faster economic growth is taken into account.

Sunday's report noted it is "not practicable" yet to produce an estimate of the bill that includes its macroeconomic effects. The experts that would produce such an analysis, the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation, haven't had enough time to work through it.

It could be weeks before such a dynamic analysis might be available. The Joint Committee on Taxation has yet to produce one for the House version of the tax bill, which passed on Nov. 16.

After taking control of the Senate in 2015, Republicans sought to institute macroeconomic analysis for major economic legislation like tax reform. They have long criticized static scoring, which gauges the size of tax cuts without allowing for the possibility that the economy could surge as a result.

[nikcers]

False: government spending is blowing up deficits

[Zippyjuan]

False: government spending is blowing up deficits

Cutting taxes without cutting spending does too.

[angelatc]

I don't even care any more.

[The Gold Standard]

I don't even care any more.

That's the spirit!

[angelatc]

That's the spirit!

Obviously I care about the debt. It's the pinhead alarmist posts that I'm referring to. If it was a Democrat budget, Zip would be chart-chirping about how inconsequential the deficit is.

[nikcers]

Cutting taxes without cutting spending does too.

Not cutting spending is the cause of deficits.

[Zippyjuan]

Not cutting spending is the cause of deficits.

It is not a single sided coin with only one cause. Deficits come from spending more money than you take in. Reduce revenues- deficits go up. Increase spending- deficits go up.

Cutting taxes does not lead to cutting spending.

[jllundqu]

It's not the government's money, ZIP.... it's our money. Jesus Christ why are you even here?

[nikcers]

It is not a single sided coin with only one cause. Deficits come from spending more money than you take in. Reduce revenues- deficits go up. Increase spending- deficits go up.

Yes it is, the people give congress a blank check to write everything they want into a spending bill and they threaten to shut down the government if they can't pass it.

[Zippyjuan]

It's not the government's money, ZIP.... it's our money. Jesus Christ why are you even here?

Didn't say it isn't.

[Zippyjuan]

http://www.pressherald.com/2017/09/16/tax-cuts-silence-republican-deficit-hawks/


“Republicans gave up on caring about deficits long ago,” bemoaned Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who was elected in the 2010 tea party class.

Rand said he is willing to add to the deficits by voting for the tax bill. He did try to fight for spending cuts when the budget was being considered.


It’s a far cry from the Newt Gingrich-led Republican revolution that stormed Washington two decades ago with a mandate to balance the budget and cut taxes at the same time. Or even the party of 2001, which enthusiastically cut taxes under former President George W. Bush, but only at a moment when the government was flush with money.

[Swordsmyth]

http://www.pressherald.com/2017/09/16/tax-cuts-silence-republican-deficit-hawks/



Rand said he is willing to add to the deficits by voting for the tax bill. He did try to fight for spending cuts when the budget was being considered.

So he is going for the best thing he can actually get.

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

Jesus Christ why are you even here?


$$$$$

Sounds like he's got a good gig.

[Zippyjuan]

$$$$$

Sounds like he's got a good gig.

Link?

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

Link?




Zippyjuan
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Link?

[Zippyjuan]

The Senate was hoping to get a vote as soon as tomorrow but I think they may end up postponing it. Not enough votes yet. When they try to make changes to attract in one of the hold-outs, somebody else says they will vote against it if that change is in the bill. That is why they wrote it in secret and wanted a vote before people had a good chance to examine it. Only two Republicans can vote against the bill and still pass it.

[angelatc]

That is why they wrote it in secret and wanted a vote before people had a good chance to examine it.

After the way the Dems crammed Obamacare through, serves you right.

[Zippyjuan]

Senate votes to open debate on the floor for their tax bill. Vote was 52- 48.

[nikcers]

hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Yellen: $20 trillion national debt 'should keep people awake at night'With Congress wrestling over a tax reform plan that critics say would explode the government budget deficit, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she also is concerned over the surging level of public debt.

[Zippyjuan]

McCain says he will support tax bill: http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/30/politics/john-mccain-supports-senate-gop-tax-plan/index.html