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Anti Federalist
11-21-2017, 12:38 PM
Just take your UBI card and go away, OK?

Keep in mind, UBI, in the cashless society, will not purchase government disapproved items.

Everything from a Big Mac to a Beretta will be blocked.

Enjoy your future, slaves.



The driverless revolution may exact a political price

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-self-driving-politics-20171121-story.html

In its race to embrace driverless vehicles, Washington has cleared away regulatory hurdles for auto companies and brushed aside consumer warnings about the risk of crashes and hacking.

But at a recent hearing, lawmakers absorbed an economic argument that illustrated how the driverless revolution they are encouraging could backfire politically, particularly in Trump country.

It was the tale of a successful, long-distance beer run.

A robotic truck coasted driverless 120 miles down Interstate 25 in Colorado on its way to deliver 51,744 cans of Budweiser. Not everyone at the hearing was impressed by the milestone, particularly the secretary-treasurer of the Teamsters, whose nearly 600,000 unionized drivers played no small roll in President Trump’s victory last year.

Driverless vehicles threaten to dramatically reduce America’s 1.7-million trucking jobs. It is the front end of a wave of automation that technologists and economists have been warning for years will come crashing down on America’s political order. Some predict it could rival the impact of the economic globalization and the resulting off-shoring of jobs that propelled Trump’s victory in the presidential election.

“This is one of the biggest policy changes of our generation,” said Sam Loesche, head of government affairs for the Teamsters. “This is not just about looking after the health and welfare of America’s workers, but also their livelihoods.”

Washington isn’t ready for it. The Trump White House already has indicated it sees it as some future administration’s problem. Silicon Valley remains in shock over Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin’s remark in the spring that economic fallout from this type of automation is 50 to 100 years off and “not even on my radar screen.”

“I don’t think anybody there is thinking about this seriously,” said Martin Ford, author of “Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future.” “They are still looking at this as futuristic and not having an impact and not politically toxic. … Once people start seeing the vehicles on the roads and jobs disappearing because of them, things will quickly become very different.”

The arrival of that reckoning is getting accelerated by Washington’s bipartisan excitement for self-driving technology, one of the few policy issues advancing. New Trump administration regulations don’t require industry to submit certain safety assessments, leaving it voluntary. And legislation — already approved in the House and expected to pass in the Senate — strips authority from states to set many of their own safety guidelines.

Objections raised by the National Governor’s Assn. and the National Council of State Legislatures don’t seem to be slowing things down. Consumer groups are dismayed.

“We understand how beneficial this technology can be, but we also understand that if we screw this up, human lives will be lost,” said Jackie Gillan, head of Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety. “We are at a time when there are already record recalls of vehicles because of safety defects. Why are we trusting these companies to do the right thing?”

Lobbying from the Teamsters succeeded in stripping commercial vehicles from the rapidly advancing congressional action. Automated commercial trucks would not get the exemptions to state and many federal rules as robot cars would in the legislation.

The concession — heralded as a big victory by the Teamsters — was met with a shrug by many in the automation world. They don’t expect it to slow the arrival of fleets of self-driving trucks on the road. The momentum is already there, they say, and agency regulators are working with the companies to get their prototypes highway-ready.

“It was a political sign that there is fear” about the impact of the trucks, said Bryant Walker Smith, a law professor at the University of South Carolina who researches vehicle automation. “But it is not in the long term going to hamper their deployment.”

How soon the potential for economic disruption spills over into politics is a matter of debate among technologists and futurists. But they agree it will be much sooner than Mnuchin predicts, and possibly as soon as 2020, when Trump would be up for reelection.

Trump claimed a bigger share of the labor vote than any Republican since Ronald Reagan, winning 43% of it nationwide, exit polls show. In Ohio, he beat Hillary Clinton commandingly in union households.

Hanging onto those votes is not as simple as tapping the brakes on driverless technology. Such a move would have its own economic fallout, as companies developing the vehicles could merely move abroad.

But if the White House and Congress don’t start addressing the disruption that self-driving vehicles and related automation will cause, economists and political scientists warn Washington may one day face the kind of voter backlash seen in the 2016 election. So far, the government is showing itself just as disconnected as it was to the troubles created for the same voters by globalization.

“Regardless of whether this creates a world where everyone has jobs or few people do, those jobs will be different,” Smith said. “Congress is not effectively discussing this. We don’t sufficiently understand this disruption.”

At a California start-up called Embark, there already are indications of how trucking jobs are about to change. The company has in recent weeks started test-runs in which it is using self-driving trucks to ship smart refrigerators from a warehouse in Texas to a distribution center in Palm Springs. There is a driver in the cab, but for the bulk of the ride, when the truck is on the 10 Freeway, that person is not doing the driving. Eventually, there could be nobody in the cab for legs of the trip.

Embark’s head of public policy, Jonny Morris, joins the American Trucking Assn. in offering an optimistic vision — one in which truck drivers still will have jobs and their quality of life will be much improved. Instead of making long hauls thousands of miles, Morris said, they could stay in their communities and handle the more-complicated short hops at the beginning and end of the trips, along with loading and unloading. “We believe automation can help improve the number and quality of jobs,” he said.

Teamsters executives are skeptical, particularly as many pilot programs exhibit a diminished role for blue-collar workers. Volvo, for example, boasts how the autonomous garbage truck it developed doesn’t need a driver in the cab to navigate the route, freeing up that person to load the trash bins. Two jobs appear to become one.

Many of the new positions created by such technology look nothing like the stable trucking jobs that are a staple of blue-collar America. They involve coding, data analysis and operation of complicated computer systems. The training is sophisticated and costly. A college degree could become a prerequisite.

(Lol- yeah right, the "new economy". The few jobs that require any real human oversight will be outsourced to cheap labor overseas. - AF)

Frost says the White House and Congress better start playing closer attention to what self-driving technology means for truckers and others displaced by the new industry.

“If we don’t figure out a way to solve this,” he said, “there is going to be a backlash.”

Jamesiv1
11-21-2017, 12:50 PM
2 or 3 deaths from driverless car crashes will squelch the enthusiasm for this silliness.

Getting from point A to point B is easy. Reacting to the stupidness of everyone around you, that's the hard part.

Anti Federalist
11-21-2017, 01:00 PM
2 or 3 deaths from driverless car crashes will squelch the enthusiasm for this silliness.

Getting from point A to point B is easy. Reacting to the stupidness of everyone around you, that's the hard part.

That's why human driving will be banned.

Almost without exception, the crashes of driverless vehicles have been caused by human drivers.

luctor-et-emergo
11-21-2017, 01:01 PM
2 or 3 deaths from driverless car crashes will squelch the enthusiasm for this silliness.

Getting from point A to point B is easy. Reacting to the stupidness of everyone around you, that's the hard part.

Would you board a...

...Plane without pilots ?
...Crewship without a crew controlling it ?

I mean.. Sure, in most cases a computer will be PERFECTLY CAPABLE of bringing you from point A to point B safely. However, the very reason we still have pilots in airplanes even though it's completely possible to do without is because computers aren't infallible. First, they are programmed by humans. Secondly, they rely on electronic components that can fail. Third, as long as there is no artificial intelligence that's superior to ourselves, everything relies on parameters, computers go nuts when stuff doesn't work for them, humans have very different inputs and can deal better with these kinds of situations... As said before, this is why we still have pilots.

RonPaulIsGreat
11-21-2017, 01:02 PM
They can waste billions fighting it, and possibly slow it down a few years, that's about it.

We are talking about Trillions of dollars here, not billions.
1. food delivery drivers. (24/7) nearly everywhere for almost no additional cost.
2. Retail to Home delivery 24/7 nearly everywhere (new application)
3. Trucking traditional becoming far more efficient, with 24/7 vehicle movement.
4. 24 hour UPS/Fedex/USPS delivery possible.
5 24/7 vehicle upon request nearly anywhere. No more cabbies or uber drivers.
6. EMergency vehicles.
7. Automatically patrolling police cars for "presence" and monitoring trouble areas.
8. Complete automation of Farming.
9. Automated lawn care service. A Self Driving Truck will drive Self Driving lawn mowers from location to location. lol... sounds crazy but totally possible.
Etc..., Etc...,ETc.................

It would have been easier to stop the first cars, than it'll be to stop the self driving vehicles coming. TRILLIONS at stake, and you have to stop it everywhere worldwide, or else you lose anyway, as say the US stopped it, and china adopted it, there efficiency would increase dramatically, and you'd lose anyway.

Some fights are worth fighting this isn't one of them. They will lose. The most they are going to get is some additional red tape for the self-driving cars to traverse, and they will traverse it.

IT's done. IT's even more obvious than the internet would be huge eventually when I got my first dial up connection that charged by the minute.

Anti Federalist
11-21-2017, 01:06 PM
As said before, this is why we still have pilots.

Not for long.

Once this generation dies off, there will be no qualms about flying on a pilotless plane or a driverless car.

Millions of people already travel on "engineer" less trains, trams, subways, and "people movers" of all types.

Anti Federalist
11-21-2017, 01:07 PM
They can waste billions fighting it, and possibly slow it down a few years, that's about it.

We are talking about Trillions of dollars here, not billions.
1. food delivery drivers. (24/7) nearly everywhere for almost no additional cost.
2. Retail to Home delivery 24/7 nearly everywhere (new application)
3. Trucking traditional becoming far more efficient, with 24/7 vehicle movement.
4. 24 hour UPS/Fedex/USPS delivery possible.
5 24/7 vehicle upon request nearly anywhere. No more cabbies or uber drivers.
6. EMergency vehicles.
7. Automatically patrolling police cars for "presence" and monitoring trouble areas.
8. Complete automation of Farming.
9. Automated lawn care service. A Self Driving Truck will drive Self Driving lawn mowers from location to location. lol... sounds crazy but totally possible.
Etc..., Etc...,ETc.................

It would have been easier to stop the first cars, than it'll be to stop the self driving vehicles coming. TRILLIONS at stake, and you have to stop it everywhere worldwide, or else you lose anyway, as say the US stopped it, and china adopted it, there efficiency would increase dramatically, and you'd lose anyway.

Some fights are worth fighting this isn't one of them. They will lose. The most they are going to get is some additional red tape for the self-driving cars to traverse, and they will traverse it.

IT's done. IT's even more obvious than the internet would be huge eventually when I got my first dial up connection that charged by the minute.

Yup.

Enjoy your UBI.

Raginfridus
11-21-2017, 01:16 PM
Spending billions of dollars modding interstates into railroads? That's essentially what driverless interstates will be, the concepts are so similar its plagiarism.

Jamesiv1
11-21-2017, 01:19 PM
That's why human driving will be banned.

Almost without exception, the crashes of driverless vehicles have been caused by human drivers.
good point.

shakey1
11-21-2017, 02:40 PM
No thank you very much.

https://www.usnews.com/dims4/USNEWS/5e16970/2147483647/resize/1200x%3E/quality/85/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.beam.usnews.com%2F4f%2F25% 2F0139a7444cdaa10a3103b1dc3fe3%2Fthumb-1.jpeg

phill4paul
11-21-2017, 02:45 PM
Just wait until there are enough on the road to cause someone to hack them and causes a driverless day of destruction.

Swordsmyth
11-21-2017, 02:53 PM
Just wait until there are enough on the road to cause someone to hack them and causes a driverless day of destruction.


Just wait until hackers hire out to make the car do it as a murder for hire scheme, who will be able to say it wasn't just another GPS glitch?



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UBdrMTxsvs


Destination rendition site #666


...

Raginfridus
11-21-2017, 03:15 PM
Also, that scene in Logan where they stop to help get the horses off the highway, before the next driverless freight truck smashes them all. That was a good movie.

heavenlyboy34
11-21-2017, 03:28 PM
I don't see this working outside areas where all the variables are extremely well controlled. Some nasty weather or a downed tree or 2 and your robocar is useless.

Raginfridus
11-21-2017, 03:35 PM
I don't see this working outside areas where all the variables are extremely well controlled. Some nasty weather or a downed tree or 2 and your robocar is useless.As for trees, they generally aren't a problem on interstates. Leave inclement weather to chemtrails stratospheric injection.

heavenlyboy34
11-21-2017, 04:41 PM
As for trees, they generally aren't a problem on interstates. Leave inclement weather to chemtrails stratospheric injection.

Right. Interstates don't have a lot of variables most of the year. The surface and side streets that people use the vast majority of the time though, aren't like that.

Raginfridus
11-21-2017, 05:15 PM
Right. Interstates don't have a lot of variables most of the year. The surface and side streets that people use the vast majority of the time though, aren't like that.Once people are used to driverless freight, I bet they'll open those roads too.

There are so many circuits and redundant systems in cars, the driver's become obsolete. The starter motor, automatic transmission, cruise control, collision detection... eliminating the driver's finally in the cards. Its all about taking individual agency and easing us into lives designed by directors of the board. That's what the people want.

Raginfridus
11-21-2017, 05:17 PM
No thank you very much.

https://www.usnews.com/dims4/USNEWS/5e16970/2147483647/resize/1200x%3E/quality/85/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.beam.usnews.com%2F4f%2F25% 2F0139a7444cdaa10a3103b1dc3fe3%2Fthumb-1.jpeg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFe9JR5l1E0


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lx9EFJ6qgZc

Anti Federalist
11-21-2017, 05:19 PM
I don't see this working outside areas where all the variables are extremely well controlled. Some nasty weather or a downed tree or 2 and your robocar is useless.

There are whole legions of geniuses, with more degrees than a thermometer, working on this.

Some rain or downed trees are not going to stand in the way of this.

Voluntarist
11-21-2017, 06:21 PM
xxxxx

heavenlyboy34
11-21-2017, 07:02 PM
n/m

heavenlyboy34
11-21-2017, 07:06 PM
Forgetting the safety concerns ... just dealing with the labor impact (union and non-union):
1) Did bank tellers stop the advance of ATMs?
2) Did grocery store cashiers stop the advance of do it yourself checkout lanes?
3) Will fast food workers stop the advance of food ordering kiosks?

What businesses consider is which option does it cheaper, faster, better

=== Edited to add ===
On the grocery store checkout process: the next step is to RFID tag each item in the store. Then the customer simply rolls their cart past the detector which rings everything up automatically. The customer pays with credit card and bags the items himself. You'll probably even have robots rounding up carts in the parking lot.

Yeah, but most people are concerned about safety wrt to robocars. Not your typical Ludditism, IMO...

Danke
11-21-2017, 07:46 PM
Yeah, but most people are concerned about safety wrt to robocars. Not your typical Ludditism, IMO...

In the case of aviation, it will be a huge cost to try to automate getting an aircraft to be loaded and safely airborne to fly to its destination and the unloaded and serviced, etc. The infrastructure will be in enormous and very costly.

All a competing airline has to do is advertised that they have a pilot or two on board for their passenger safety. That airline will not have to spend the huge amount of capital to retrofit their aircraft and supporting systems for the small cost of having a human on board.

How do you think the passengers and the market will choose/respond?

CaptUSA
11-21-2017, 07:59 PM
Man, I feel like addressing this from so many angles.

1. Economics: More efficiency always increases wealth and prosperity. This is a good thing. Don't worry about jobs going away - wants are unlimited. With the extra resources we'll have, more jobs will be created - even though their unidentified now. Automobiles killed the farriers, but I don't see anyone arguing against them anymore. Read post #20

2. Unions: Are we really arguing that unions should work to stifle innovation? In RPF?

3. Regulations: This is one of the things I'm most excited about! Our current regulatory state makes no sense in a high tech world. (It makes no sense at any time, but people are beginning to recognize its futility) Looking at the future, it seems that people will begin to realize that regulations are an impediment to progress. That is HUGE! Technology has always made regulation pointless; now it's beginning to happen in hyperspeed! Are we really arguing for stricter regulation in RPF??

4. Safety: Once these things get on the road, they will learn on their own and become safer and safer. My main worry is that it will be incredibly easy to create a roadblock... Just walk out onto a road and all the cars will stop. Of course, they'll reroute themselves and let every other vehicle know how to reroute, but you have to worry about calls for "traffic interference" laws.

4B. Creepiness: This leads us to what AF fears... Those traffic interference penalties. It's not hard to envision steep penalties for anyone causing an accident with a robocar (after all, most of them will be owned by corporate fleets - and they will have deep pockets). Eventually, insurance carriers will run up the rates for human drivers to the point that most people just decide that it's not worth it to drive manually. Not to mention that when you use a car, your travel will be tracked and logged and will be used to gather as much info about you as possible for all sorts of uses.

But ultimately, I think we have to ask whether this type of technology brings more liberty or less. Obviously, things are going to change, but things always change. It's just a matter of what you choose to focus on. I choose to take the positive outlook. The internet opened up a line of communication and commerce like never before. All in all, I think it's resulting in more liberty worldwide. I don't want to shut it down just because every keystroke is being monitored. You take the good and try to fight the bad. It's what we do. But we don't have to shun technology - it's really a godsend.

Pauls' Revere
11-21-2017, 08:17 PM
That's why human driving will be banned.

Almost without exception, the crashes of driverless vehicles have been caused by human drivers.

^^this^^

and I wager insurance rates would drop. Yep, banned, just like gas engines eventually will be banned to save the environment, reduce pollution and save taxpayer money to treat asthmatics on Obamacare.

enhanced_deficit
11-21-2017, 08:24 PM
Maybe there will be fewer concerns like this with "driverless Uber"?

Hackers stole the personal data of 57 million Uber passengers and drivers (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?517032-Hackers-stole-the-personal-data-of-57-million-Uber-passengers-and-drivers&)

Pauls' Revere
11-21-2017, 08:25 PM
Not for long.

Once this generation dies off, there will be no qualms about flying on a pilotless plane or a driverless car.

Millions of people already travel on "engineer" less trains, trams, subways, and "people movers" of all types.

exactly, we can launch an ICBM half a world away and have it land in a trash can but somehow im to believe an airplane is incapable of this same task.

Pauls' Revere
11-21-2017, 08:30 PM
In the case of aviation, it will be a huge cost to try to automate getting an aircraft to be loaded and safely airborne to fly to its destination and the unloaded and serviced, etc. The infrastructure will be in enormous and very costly.

All a competing airline has to do is advertised that they have a pilot or two on board for their passenger safety. That airline will not have to spend the huge amount of capital to retrofit their aircraft and supporting systems for the small cost of having a human on board.

How do you think the passengers and the market will choose/respond?

The cockpit door was closed when I last boarded a plane. It could have been flown by a robot without me knowing.

Danke
11-21-2017, 08:37 PM
exactly, we can launch an ICBM half a world away and have it land in a trash can but somehow im to believe an airplane is incapable of this same task.

Not quiite that accurate yet. But do you appreciate the costs? We are not talking about ballistic missiles with some later stage guidance. We fly many times that amount on a daily basis in a much more dynamic environment.

Pauls' Revere
11-21-2017, 08:49 PM
Not quiite that accurate yet. But do you appreciate the costs? We are not talking about ballistic missles with some later stage guidance. We fly many times that amount on a daily basis in a much more dynamic environment.

I suspect that planes with people will probably be one of the last areas where robotic AI guidance will finally take-off (pun intended). When it does come to flight it will start with cargo transport. No passengers needed on cargo flights. Cost will eventually be driven down by economic forces and economies of scale.

Danke
11-21-2017, 08:53 PM
The cockpit door was closed when I last boarded a plane. It could have been flown by a robot without me knowing.

Lol.

so what would be the response to a passengers concerns that they bought a ( cheaper) ticket guaranteeing there is a human pilot aboard?

Open the door during boarding?

I have never seen a cockpit crew not allowing someone to come to the cockpit during boarding. I often let them sit in my seat and take a picture with their camera if they wish. Usually parents with their children and some aviation geeks, but younger women get expedited handling.

Danke
11-21-2017, 08:55 PM
I suspect that planes with people will probably be one of the last areas where robotic AI guidance will finally take-off (pun intended). When it does come to flight it will start with cargo transport. No passengers needed on cargo flights. Cost will eventually be driven down by economic forces and economies of scale.

Oh, it is coming, but I will be dead by then. I suspect we will see single pilot cockpits in cargo first.

Raginfridus
11-21-2017, 09:10 PM
3. Regulations: This is one of the things I'm most excited about! Our current regulatory state makes no sense in a high tech world. (It makes no sense at any time, but people are beginning to recognize its futility) Looking at the future, it seems that people will begin to realize that regulations are an impediment to progress. That is HUGE! Technology has always made regulation pointless; now it's beginning to happen in hyperspeed! Are we really arguing for stricter regulation in RPF??
In theory I can see tickets/jail for driving becoming obsolete.

Drunk at the wheel? Who's to know?

Danke
11-21-2017, 09:25 PM
I always laugh at these discussions. I flew very complicated and demanding single pilot aircraft in the past. seven of them that I knew crashed and they are dead. They didn't have any passengers on board. One of them had a weapon officer in the backseat and he killed him too. Unlike a doctor, we cannot bury our mistakes. We spent many many man hours investigating accidents to try to prevent them in the future. Our training is completely geared towards malfunctions and safely recovering an aircraft. Our lives depend on it. Take that out of the equation. And the failure rate could be as high as doctors. When you shop for a medical procedure do you go online and look for the cheapest doctor you can find? Are you going to do that if one company offers a cheaper ticket on a pilotless airplane versus one that has a pilot? Even though currently that won't be an option for a long time as I stated the infrastructure and expense will be much greater for a pilotless aircraft versus paying a pilot.

My skin is in the game, not so much for a "robot."

I fly an aircraft that holds over 300 warm bodies.

their ticket costs is less than 4 dollars an hour of flight time to have the crew on board.

First class pays more of that, economy much less.


Just look at the unlimited budget the military has, and you can begin to figure how much more it will cost to become "pilotless" to develop the technology for autonomous machines and systems that can deliver the same product that we deliver in the dynamic environment commercial aviation operates today.

Swordsmyth
11-21-2017, 09:25 PM
but younger women get expedited handling.

Due to recent trends in the news you should be more careful in your choice of words.

Danke
11-21-2017, 09:31 PM
Due to recent trends in the news you should be more careful in your choice of words.

You are right, I would have said "Cisgender women"

Pauls' Revere
11-21-2017, 09:32 PM
Lol.

so what would be the response to a passengers concerns that they bought a ( cheaper) ticket guaranteeing there is a human pilot aboard?

Open the door during boarding?

I have never seen a cockpit crew not allowing someone to come to the cockpit during boarding. I often let them sit in my seat and take a picture with their camera if they wish. Usually parents with their children and some aviation geeks, but younger women get expedited handling.

strong work.

Raginfridus
11-21-2017, 09:50 PM
In theory I can see tickets/jail for driving becoming obsolete.

Drunk at the wheel? Who's to know?I just remembered: there will probably be those probation breathalizers on every auto, even though they drive themselves.

So much for the perfect road trip. :(

Firestarter
11-22-2017, 08:13 AM
Just imagine how easy false flag terrorism, and unfortunate “accidents” will become with autonomous cars (a.k.a. driverless auto, self-driving car or robotic car)…
There are many advantages to having unmanned vehicles, not in the least that we can get rid of those annoying cab, bus and train drivers.
It’s easy to see why computers are preferable over humans, they don’t complain don’t get ill, never take a vacation, and only need some electricity and don’t ask for a raise, best of all is of course that they don’t pray to Allah (5 times a day) and they follow orders!

Experiments with self driving cars go back all the way to the 1920s!
Among the expected benefits of autonomous cars is a reduction in traffic collisions, including lower insurance costs.
According to Consulting firm McKinsey the widespread use of autonomous vehicles could "eliminate 90% of all auto accidents in the United States, prevent up to US$190 billion in damages and health-costs annually and save thousands of lives."
In Europe, cities in Belgium, France, Italy and the UK are planning to operate transport systems for driverless cars, and Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain have allowed testing robotic cars in traffic. In 2015, the UK Government launched public trials of the LUTZ Pathfinder driverless pod in Milton Keynes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_car


With the help of the BBC we can have progress once more: http://www.bbc.com/autos/story/20160428-how-ai-will-solve-traffic-part-one
A traffic jam, by definition, is caused by all of us. The root cause may be an accident, or construction, or the crush of mid-sized SUVs leaving a Billy Joel concert, but if you’re part of the traffic flow, you’re part of the problem.
(…)
Error-Prone is meant to show how much safer and more efficient self-driving cars can be on the road; indeed, when all the cars are centrally controlled to travel at the same speed in the same path, they do not crash.
(…)
Somewhere, miles ahead of where you will eventually be stuck fuming, a driver slows slightly, causing the car behind it to slow a bit more. This wave of slowed traffic moves backwards along the roadway, simultaneously growing larger and slowing down,
(…)
Our smart streets will carry sensor-laden cars, which will communicate with each other as well as a central network. Some advanced algorithm will optimize traffic flow, and cars will give each other the proper space to merge, anticipating slowdowns so that brake lights never illuminate.


Morgan Stanley estimated that autonomous cars can save $5.6 trillion per year worldwide: http://www.morganstanley.com/articles/autonomous-cars-the-future-is-now/
It’s very difficult to understand that developing these kinds of gadgets costs trillions, and that computer technology is making man obsolete…


Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction:
Anthony Levandowski (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/feb/23/anthony-levandowski-google-uber-self-driving-cars-lawsuit), who is at the center of a legal battle between Uber and Google’s Waymo, has established a nonprofit religious corporation called Way of the Future, according to state filings first uncovered by Wired’s Backchannel (https://www.wired.com/story/god-is-a-bot-and-anthony-levandowski-is-his-messenger/). Way of the Future’s startling mission: “To develop and promote the realization of a Godhead based on artificial intelligence and through understanding and worship of the Godhead contribute to the betterment of society.”
(…)
Benek argues that advanced AI is compatible with Christianity – it’s just another technology that humans have created under guidance from God that can be used for good or evil.
“I totally think that AI can participate in Christ’s redemptive purposes,” he said, by ensuring it is imbued with Christian values. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/28/artificial-intelligence-god-anthony-levandowski

Raginfridus
11-22-2017, 08:32 AM
Robots are never late.

specsaregood
11-22-2017, 08:34 AM
But ultimately, I think we have to ask whether this type of technology brings more liberty or less. Obviously, things are going to change, but things always change. It's just a matter of what you choose to focus on. I choose to take the positive outlook. The internet opened up a line of communication and commerce like never before. All in all, I think it's resulting in more liberty worldwide. I don't want to shut it down just because every keystroke is being monitored. You take the good and try to fight the bad. It's what we do. But we don't have to shun technology - it's really a godsend.

I happen to enjoy driving, have enjoyed it since I was 11. And especially so when I turned 16 and was free to go wherever I could make it on my limited income. I like being in control of my destiny. Throw a bunch of computer driven cars in the woods.

CaptUSA
11-22-2017, 09:32 AM
I happen to enjoy driving, have enjoyed it since I was 11. And especially so when I turned 16 and was free to go wherever I could make it on my limited income. I like being in control of my destiny. Throw a bunch of computer driven cars in the woods.

Oh, I love it too! Imagine how much more enjoyable it's going to be when you take half the idiots off the road! Those who have no purpose being behind the wheel except that they need to get from point A to point B. And they'll be replaced with machines with predictable behavior! Goodbye, granny stretching to see over the wheel... Goodbye, soccer mom trying to get the kids to stop fighting... Goodbye, lazy fat-ass more concerned about eating his fast food than paying attention... Goodbye, ditzy teenage girl getting distracted by the butterfly on her windshield...

The main problem I see is that it may become cost-prohibitive. I don't think the bans on human driving will come into play anytime soon, but you can almost certainly guarantee that insurance rates will go up. So then, it'll be a question of how much is it worth to you to enjoy driving?

Anti Federalist
11-22-2017, 11:18 AM
Oh, I love it too! Imagine how much more enjoyable it's going to be when you take half the idiots off the road! Those who have no purpose being behind the wheel except that they need to get from point A to point B. And they'll be replaced with machines with predictable behavior! Goodbye, granny stretching to see over the wheel... Goodbye, soccer mom trying to get the kids to stop fighting... Goodbye, lazy fat-ass more concerned about eating his fast food than paying attention... Goodbye, ditzy teenage girl getting distracted by the butterfly on her windshield...

The main problem I see is that it may become cost-prohibitive. I don't think the bans on human driving will come into play anytime soon, but you can almost certainly guarantee that insurance rates will go up. So then, it'll be a question of how much is it worth to you to enjoy driving?

You folks are all whistling past the graveyard.

Within ten years, self driving vehicles and trucks will be the norm and bans on human driving will be in place in major cities.

Within fifteen years, widespread wholesale bans on human driving will be in place and the first wholesale bans on ICE vehicles will be in place.

Within twenty years, ICE vehicles will be completely banned, human driving will be banned, and trucks, trains, planes and ships will all be either self operating or remote operated.

The technocrats are creating hell on earth, because they have as dim of a view of your fellow man as you do (and I do, at least on things political).

Humanity are idiots, and the faster we can get more control measures in place, the better, is how they see it.

And this is the perfect system of control: no cash, no mobility, total dependency on the government for UBI, since there will be no realistic "work" for anyone, other than do nothing make work jobs to qualify for your UBI all while under total surveillance, blindly consuming your way to government approved and government defined happiness.

I weep for my children.

Intoxiklown
11-22-2017, 12:04 PM
You folks are all whistling past the graveyard.

Within ten years, self driving vehicles and trucks will be the norm and bans on human driving will be in place in major cities.

Within fifteen years, widespread wholesale bans on human driving will be in place and the first wholesale bans on ICE vehicles will be in place.

Within twenty years, ICE vehicles will be completely banned, human driving will be banned, and trucks, trains, planes and ships will all be either self operating or remote operated.

The technocrats are creating hell on earth, because they have as dim of a view of your fellow man as you do (and I do, at least on things political).

Humanity are idiots, and the faster we can get more control measures in place, the better, is how they see it.

And this is the perfect system of control: no cash, no mobility, total dependency on the government for UBI, since there will be no realistic "work" for anyone, other than do nothing make work jobs to qualify for your UBI all while under total surveillance, blindly consuming your way to government approved and government defined happiness.

I weep for my children.

Honestly, some of your time frame projections are most likely to great. Conservative estimates put full autonomous vehicles (meaning both commercial and private) as the norm by 2022. These vehicles are already being built and sold today with the hardware installed, they are merely waiting for the software. We'll almost assuredly start seeing nationwide legislation limiting or banning manually operated vehicles on the road around 2030 at the latest.

AI systems are going to replace a LOT of jobs over the next 20 years. Medical personnel, legal personnel (lawyers), 90%+ of manual labor, engineers, basically people ranging from high school drop outs to people who hold Ph.Ds. And I'm sorry Danke, but airplane pilots as well. And I'm a pilot, but I also have a background in this kind of technology.

With how digitally plugged in our world has become, more so with iOt systems everywhere (along the lines of 5 million devices coming online daily) as well as AI and quantum computing advances being made at a staggering pace we are literally witnessing a 4th industrial revolution that WILL happen in our lifetimes (unless you're 65+ and sickly).

And you're right AF regarding the high possibility of a UBI system. It's where my brain bucks at where we're heading. Honestly, it's most likely one of the main drivers pushing governments to a cashless society. I fully agree there is a control mechanism within the push, but there is also a proactive element to it regarding looking at ways to prevent millions of unemployed people storming their capitals. It's why I mentioned some very worrisome economic concerns in another thread discussion this topic. I'm not even going to open the can of worms relating to privacy issues that will arise. As I've said before, this is a rabbit hole that gets real deep real fast.

luctor-et-emergo
11-22-2017, 12:08 PM
I always laugh at these discussions. I flew very complicated and demanding single pilot aircraft in the past. seven of them that I knew crashed and they are dead. They didn't have any passengers on board. One of them had a weapon officer in the backseat and he killed him too. Unlike a doctor, we cannot bury our mistakes. We spent many many man hours investigating accidents to try to prevent them in the future. Our training is completely geared towards malfunctions and safely recovering an aircraft. Our lives depend on it. Take that out of the equation. And the failure rate could be as high as doctors. When you shop for a medical procedure do you go online and look for the cheapest doctor you can find? Are you going to do that if one company offers a cheaper ticket on a pilotless airplane versus one that has a pilot? Even though currently that won't be an option for a long time as I stated the infrastructure and expense will be much greater for a pilotless aircraft versus paying a pilot.

My skin is in the game, not so much for a "robot."

I fly an aircraft that holds over 300 warm bodies.

their ticket costs is less than 4 dollars an hour of flight time to have the crew on board.

First class pays more of that, economy much less.


Just look at the unlimited budget the military has, and you can begin to figure how much more it will cost to become "pilotless" to develop the technology for autonomous machines and systems that can deliver the same product that we deliver in the dynamic environment commercial aviation operates today.


^^ That. Oh and, I have a self-building pizza oven but at the moment the AI is on a strike. :D

Anti Federalist
11-22-2017, 01:20 PM
Honestly, some of your time frame projections are most likely to great. Conservative estimates put full autonomous vehicles (meaning both commercial and private) as the norm by 2022. These vehicles are already being built and sold today with the hardware installed, they are merely waiting for the software. We'll almost assuredly start seeing nationwide legislation limiting or banning manually operated vehicles on the road around 2030 at the latest.

I would not be surprised, and you are probably right. I was being conservative.


AI systems are going to replace a LOT of jobs over the next 20 years. Medical personnel, legal personnel (lawyers), 90%+ of manual labor, engineers, basically people ranging from high school drop outs to people who hold Ph.Ds. And I'm sorry Danke, but airplane pilots as well. And I'm a pilot, but I also have a background in this kind of technology.

Yes, no one will be exempt this time, which is why UBI will be in place in few years as well.


With how digitally plugged in our world has become, more so with iOt systems everywhere (along the lines of 5 million devices coming online daily) as well as AI and quantum computing advances being made at a staggering pace we are literally witnessing a 4th industrial revolution that WILL happen in our lifetimes (unless you're 65+ and sickly).

Yup, within 20 years or so.


And you're right AF regarding the high possibility of a UBI system. It's where my brain bucks at where we're heading. Honestly, it's most likely one of the main drivers pushing governments to a cashless society. I fully agree there is a control mechanism within the push, but there is also a proactive element to it regarding looking at ways to prevent millions of unemployed people storming their capitals. It's why I mentioned some very worrisome economic concerns in another thread discussion this topic. I'm not even going to open the can of worms relating to privacy issues that will arise. As I've said before, this is a rabbit hole that gets real deep real fast.

It is a guarantee, UBI that is.

As you noted, the powers that be cannot afford billions of out of work starving proles to storm the citadels.

Not until theye have more effective population controls in place, which are being worked on as we speak.

heavenlyboy34
11-22-2017, 01:41 PM
You folks are all whistling past the graveyard.

Within ten years, self driving vehicles and trucks will be the norm and bans on human driving will be in place in major cities.

Within fifteen years, widespread wholesale bans on human driving will be in place and the first wholesale bans on ICE vehicles will be in place.

Within twenty years, ICE vehicles will be completely banned, human driving will be banned, and trucks, trains, planes and ships will all be either self operating or remote operated.

The technocrats are creating hell on earth, because they have as dim of a view of your fellow man as you do (and I do, at least on things political).

Humanity are idiots, and the faster we can get more control measures in place, the better, is how they see it.

And this is the perfect system of control: no cash, no mobility, total dependency on the government for UBI, since there will be no realistic "work" for anyone, other than do nothing make work jobs to qualify for your UBI all while under total surveillance, blindly consuming your way to government approved and government defined happiness.

I weep for my children.
Gonna disagree with ya there. We polyglots will always have work. Machine translators are always, always going to be bullshit. They'll never be able to pick up the nuances of highly inflected languages(almost all of them), tone languages, and click languages. Even if we're just translating propaganda and dumb entertainment, the demand will always be there. Prolly also always be sports and entertainment too. Bread and circuses, ya know. I like to think fine arts would be kept around, but no guarantees because those already tend to have a pretty niche audience.

devil21
11-22-2017, 02:57 PM
Strange things that happen when the dollar loses reserve status and, by extension, ability to print it in unlimited quantities. No need for driver violations to fill state and local coffers with printed money.

Will people realize that the real long term goal of self driving cars is to completely control people's movement to the point that entire lives will be lived within 10 square miles like pre-industrial times? The cities are being transformed into Gaza-like controlled access/exit concentration camps. No traveling, no experiencing other cultures, sightseeing historical landmarks, etc. Will the next generations even care or will that be programmed out of them?

Time to brush up on the Georgia Guidestones to see where tptb are pushing things.

PursuePeace
11-22-2017, 04:08 PM
I happen to enjoy driving, have enjoyed it since I was 11. And especially so when I turned 16 and was free to go wherever I could make it on my limited income. I like being in control of my destiny. Throw a bunch of computer driven cars in the woods.

Seriously.
They can have my old jeep when they pry my cold, dead hands from the steering wheel.
Actually, no. Even then, they can't have it.
The bastards.

Anti Federalist
11-22-2017, 04:23 PM
Gonna disagree with ya there. We polyglots will always have work. Machine translators are always, always going to be bullshit. They'll never be able to pick up the nuances of highly inflected languages(almost all of them), tone languages, and click languages. Even if we're just translating propaganda and dumb entertainment, the demand will always be there. Prolly also always be sports and entertainment too. Bread and circuses, ya know. I like to think fine arts would be kept around, but no guarantees because those already tend to have a pretty niche audience.

I'm supposed to be happy that there will be a few jobs for the Inner Party member at the Ministry of Truth?

phill4paul
11-22-2017, 04:45 PM
^^ That. Oh and, I have a self-building pizza oven but at the moment the AI is on a strike. :D

https://i.giphy.com/5lrqfucmNS5lS.gif

heavenlyboy34
11-22-2017, 05:31 PM
I'm supposed to be happy that there will be a few jobs for the Inner Party member at the Ministry of Truth?

Not so much happy as "less despondent". It's better for man's soul to do something productive with his hands and time than nothing. It's why prison labor programs are popular with inmates. #1984

CaptUSA
11-22-2017, 07:29 PM
Not so much happy as "less despondent". It's better for man's soul to do something productive with his hands and time than nothing. It's why prison labor programs are popular with inmates. #1984

And it's why this doomsday scenario will never happen. Human wants are unlimited. And because of that, there will always be other humans that have the need and desire to fulfill those wants. I mean, seriously, guys.... this same conversation has happened all throughout history. How many weavers, farriers, switchboard operators, bank tellers, ice cutters, pinsetters, lamplighters, and cobblers does it take for you to recognize that when they lost their industries, new ones developed?

What's more scary to me is that the economically-educated in these forums are still falling for the old scare tactics that drive more regulation. In each instance of technological advance, it created more efficiency which led to more wealth to be used in places people never previously dreamed. It will happen again. And again. And again. This is human nature we're talking about here. The invisible hand of God at work! (see bastiat quote in my sig line)

Anti Federalist
11-22-2017, 07:45 PM
And it's why this doomsday scenario will never happen. Human wants are unlimited. And because of that, there will always be other humans that have the need and desire to fulfill those wants. I mean, seriously, guys.... this same conversation has happened all throughout history. How many weavers, farriers, switchboard operators, bank tellers, ice cutters, pinsetters, lamplighters, and cobblers does it take for you to recognize that when they lost their industries, new ones developed?

What's more scary to me is that the economically-educated in these forums are still falling for the old scare tactics that drive more regulation. In each instance of technological advance, it created more efficiency which led to more wealth to be used in places people never previously dreamed. It will happen again. And again. And again. This is human nature we're talking about here. The invisible hand of God at work! (see bastiat quote in my sig line)

Nope, I disagree.

The end of line has been reached.

We have now created a world in which we will soon be utterly obsolete.

There is now nothing, from cobbler to computer programmer, that can not be done faster, safer and more efficiently by machine intelligence.

That is what the missing link is all of the other examples you cited.

It was the substitution of one "dumb" tool for another.

Machine intelligence is something substantially different, a tectonic technology shift that will incredibly alter, or very possibly destroy, mankind.

Not to mention killing liberty and freedom, as we understand at, deader than a bag of hammers.

Again, we're supposed to be happy that there will be jobs for a very limited amount of people in the Ministry of Truth, translating government propaganda on the government tit?

No future I want.

CaptUSA
11-22-2017, 08:07 PM
Nope, I disagree.

The end of line has been reached.

We have now created a world in which we will soon be utterly obsolete.

There is now nothing, from cobbler to computer programmer, that can not be done faster, safer and more efficiently by machine intelligence.

That is what the missing link is all of the other examples you cited.

It was the substitution of one "dumb" tool for another.

Machine intelligence is something substantially different, a tectonic technology shift that will incredibly alter, or very possibly destroy, mankind.

Not to mention killing liberty and freedom, as we understand at, deader than a bag of hammers.

Again, we're supposed to be happy that there will be jobs for a very limited amount of people in the Ministry of Truth, translating government propaganda on the government tit?

No future I want.

I just disagree with the premise entirely. I don't think that premise is borne out by any historical data, ever. But those same fears have always been present. People feared electrification. People feared the automobile. People feared the radio. None of these things changed human nature. Good and evil still happened. The new tools were used for both purposes. Same with the internet. Driverless cars are the same. I know it's scary - but that's only because the future is unknown. It's impossible to know what the future wants will be. But faith will tell you they'll be there. New jobs that you can't even imagine now are right around the corner. And at all levels of skill and knowledge. I promise.

heavenlyboy34
11-22-2017, 08:10 PM
Nope, I disagree.

The end of line has been reached.

We have now created a world in which we will soon be utterly obsolete.

There is now nothing, from cobbler to computer programmer, that can not be done faster, safer and more efficiently by machine intelligence.

That is what the missing link is all of the other examples you cited.

It was the substitution of one "dumb" tool for another.

Machine intelligence is something substantially different, a tectonic technology shift that will incredibly alter, or very possibly destroy, mankind.

Not to mention killing liberty and freedom, as we understand at, deader than a bag of hammers.

Again, we're supposed to be happy that there will be jobs for a very limited amount of people in the Ministry of Truth, translating government propaganda on the government tit?

No future I want.
Meh, I gave you an example in #47^^ Even the "smartest" computer translators in the world produce a lot of garbage that has to be cleaned up later. Plenty of times whole sections and pages have to be redone. Fuck a bunch of robotanslators. Throw em in the woods. All I can really use em for is a hint to refer to a real book if I can't think of something off the top of my head. Cheaper and faster to have people do it.

Danke
11-22-2017, 08:16 PM
Meh, I gave you an example in #47^^ Even the "smartest" computer translators in the world produce a lot of garbage that has to be cleaned up later. Plenty of times whole sections and pages have to be redone. Fuck a bunch of robotanslators. Throw em in the woods. All I can really use em for is a hint to refer to a real book if I can't think of something off the top of my head. Cheaper and faster to have people do it.

But, but in a couple of years, it will all be perfected.

PursuePeace
11-22-2017, 08:53 PM
And it's why this doomsday scenario will never happen. Human wants are unlimited. And because of that, there will always be other humans that have the need and desire to fulfill those wants. I mean, seriously, guys.... this same conversation has happened all throughout history. How many weavers, farriers, switchboard operators, bank tellers, ice cutters, pinsetters, lamplighters, and cobblers does it take for you to recognize that when they lost their industries, new ones developed?

What's more scary to me is that the economically-educated in these forums are still falling for the old scare tactics that drive more regulation. In each instance of technological advance, it created more efficiency which led to more wealth to be used in places people never previously dreamed. It will happen again. And again. And again. This is human nature we're talking about here. The invisible hand of God at work! (see bastiat quote in my sig line)

I do get what you're saying and I agree.
However... just thinking about how many jobs we already do NOT have here in the USA now. How many people are not working and living off of the stolen fruits of other people's labor. The "easier" life becomes, the more stupid, lazy, apathetic, and disgusting mankind seems to become. Instead of having more time to learn things and become smarter and better people, the opposite now seems to happen. (Not everyone. But, in general.)

I think this is why survivalists/living off the land etc. has always appealed to me.
Man being in close relation to the earth.
Technology is great, but part of me feels we are losing some very core things along the way.

heavenlyboy34
11-22-2017, 09:44 PM
But, but in a couple of years, it will all be perfected.

LOLOLOL :D Google translate still fucks up basic shit like verb tenses EVEN WITH FULL CONTEXT. I've also seen numerous occasions of computer translators mixing up word order. Language is so human and "messy" I don't believe computers will be able to meaningfully replace real translators.

Origanalist
11-22-2017, 09:45 PM
Man, I feel like addressing this from so many angles.

1. Economics: More efficiency always increases wealth and prosperity. This is a good thing. Don't worry about jobs going away - wants are unlimited. With the extra resources we'll have, more jobs will be created - even though their unidentified now. Automobiles killed the farriers, but I don't see anyone arguing against them anymore. Read post #20

2. Unions: Are we really arguing that unions should work to stifle innovation? In RPF?

3. Regulations: This is one of the things I'm most excited about! Our current regulatory state makes no sense in a high tech world. (It makes no sense at any time, but people are beginning to recognize its futility) Looking at the future, it seems that people will begin to realize that regulations are an impediment to progress. That is HUGE! Technology has always made regulation pointless; now it's beginning to happen in hyperspeed! Are we really arguing for stricter regulation in RPF??

4. Safety: Once these things get on the road, they will learn on their own and become safer and safer. My main worry is that it will be incredibly easy to create a roadblock... Just walk out onto a road and all the cars will stop. Of course, they'll reroute themselves and let every other vehicle know how to reroute, but you have to worry about calls for "traffic interference" laws.

4B. Creepiness: This leads us to what AF fears... Those traffic interference penalties. It's not hard to envision steep penalties for anyone causing an accident with a robocar (after all, most of them will be owned by corporate fleets - and they will have deep pockets). Eventually, insurance carriers will run up the rates for human drivers to the point that most people just decide that it's not worth it to drive manually. Not to mention that when you use a car, your travel will be tracked and logged and will be used to gather as much info about you as possible for all sorts of uses.

But ultimately, I think we have to ask whether this type of technology brings more liberty or less. Obviously, things are going to change, but things always change. It's just a matter of what you choose to focus on. I choose to take the positive outlook. The internet opened up a line of communication and commerce like never before. All in all, I think it's resulting in more liberty worldwide. I don't want to shut it down just because every keystroke is being monitored. You take the good and try to fight the bad. It's what we do. But we don't have to shun technology - it's really a godsend.

Less liberty. Thats what it will bring. Less liberty. When you can no longer drive, maintain and independently operate your own car, truck or motorcycle it will mean less liberty. Period. You dont want to do that? Fine, ride the fucking bus.

These changes will mean even more than currently your every movement will be tracked and strictly controlled by government. You think regulations will be reduced as a result of this? LOLOLOL

Origanalist
11-22-2017, 09:50 PM
Strange things that happen when the dollar loses reserve status and, by extension, ability to print it in unlimited quantities. No need for driver violations to fill state and local coffers with printed money.

Will people realize that the real long term goal of self driving cars is to completely control people's movement to the point that entire lives will be lived within 10 square miles like pre-industrial times? The cities are being transformed into Gaza-like controlled access/exit concentration camps. No traveling, no experiencing other cultures, sightseeing historical landmarks, etc. Will the next generations even care or will that be programmed out of them?

Time to brush up on the Georgia Guidestones to see where tptb are pushing things.

A thousand times, this^^^^^^

Intoxiklown
11-23-2017, 11:54 AM
LOLOLOL :D Google translate still fucks up basic shit like verb tenses EVEN WITH FULL CONTEXT. I've also seen numerous occasions of computer translators mixing up word order. Language is so human and "messy" I don't believe computers will be able to meaningfully replace real translators.

And yet computers are learning every day to do just that....replace "real" translators. I put real in quotes because trying to define real relating to this subject can get real sticky.

Again, you and others aren't understanding what AI is. It's a broad term, not a specific one. We are FAST closing in on AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) which is an AI system that can think like a human mind. You're using ANI (Artificial Narrow Intelligence) as the basis for your assertion. This is like telling someone their 18 month infant is a retard because they can't write and speak Latin.

Intoxiklown
11-23-2017, 11:59 AM
And it's why this doomsday scenario will never happen. Human wants are unlimited. And because of that, there will always be other humans that have the need and desire to fulfill those wants. I mean, seriously, guys.... this same conversation has happened all throughout history. How many weavers, farriers, switchboard operators, bank tellers, ice cutters, pinsetters, lamplighters, and cobblers does it take for you to recognize that when they lost their industries, new ones developed?

What's more scary to me is that the economically-educated in these forums are still falling for the old scare tactics that drive more regulation. In each instance of technological advance, it created more efficiency which led to more wealth to be used in places people never previously dreamed. It will happen again. And again. And again. This is human nature we're talking about here. The invisible hand of God at work! (see bastiat quote in my sig line)

I hate to get all "sci-fi", but I agree with you. We are by nature curious and exploratory, and that combined with the tech advances we're in the middle of is where I see our next phase of "what to do" come together. Advanced AI systems will allow our scientific research and understanding of physics to really escalate, and I don't see why it won't lead to advances in applying theoretical physics to working reality. More so speaking to solving power issues with propulsion systems we already know can exist and work, and opening up space to us commercially.

Anti Federalist
11-23-2017, 12:18 PM
I just disagree with the premise entirely. I don't think that premise is borne out by any historical data, ever. But those same fears have always been present. People feared electrification. People feared the automobile. People feared the radio. None of these things changed human nature. Good and evil still happened. The new tools were used for both purposes. Same with the internet. Driverless cars are the same. I know it's scary - but that's only because the future is unknown. It's impossible to know what the future wants will be. But faith will tell you they'll be there. New jobs that you can't even imagine now are right around the corner. And at all levels of skill and knowledge. I promise.

And what of human liberty and freedom?

Brother, I hope you are right and I am wrong, but I just don't see it.

At any rate, have a happy Thanksgiving.

Anti Federalist
11-23-2017, 12:21 PM
I do get what you're saying and I agree.
However... just thinking about how many jobs we already do NOT have here in the USA now. How many people are not working and living off of the stolen fruits of other people's labor.

The "easier" life becomes, the more stupid, lazy, apathetic, and disgusting mankind seems to become. Instead of having more time to learn things and become smarter and better people, the opposite now seems to happen. (Not everyone. But, in general.)

I think this is why survivalists/living off the land etc. has always appealed to me.
Man being in close relation to the earth.
Technology is great, but part of me feels we are losing some very core things along the way.

Exactly.

Man does his best work when faced with adversity and risk.

This future we've built is based on doing nothing but eliminating risk and adversity.

heavenlyboy34
11-23-2017, 01:37 PM
And yet computers are learning every day to do just that....replace "real" translators. I put real in quotes because trying to define real relating to this subject can get real sticky.

Again, you and others aren't understanding what AI is. It's a broad term, not a specific one. We are FAST closing in on AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) which is an AI system that can think like a human mind. You're using ANI (Artificial Narrow Intelligence) as the basis for your assertion. This is like telling someone their 18 month infant is a retard because they can't write and speak Latin.
oic. I'd like to see real proof that AI can imitate the language center of the brain. The most recent linguistic science I'm aware of hasn't been able to find AI/AGI that can truly recreate the brain's language center. (the things can do some cool parlor tricks, tho)

Origanalist
11-23-2017, 01:51 PM
http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/001/252/556/09a.jpg

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/285/535/9d7.jpg

Anti Federalist
11-23-2017, 02:14 PM
If you had said, "I want you to picture a man whose job is "emoji translator", I would have pictured that guy in my mind, except he has a man-bun.



http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/001/252/556/09a.jpg

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/285/535/9d7.jpg

Intoxiklown
11-25-2017, 11:08 AM
oic. I'd like to see real proof that AI can imitate the language center of the brain. The most recent linguistic science I'm aware of hasn't been able to find AI/AGI that can truly recreate the brain's language center. (the things can do some cool parlor tricks, tho)

Then you're not up to date.

Google's Deep Learning is a basic digital neocortex, and it learns patterns in sounds, images, ect. The exact same way you learned as a child to understand your environment and the language being spoken and taught to you. This VERY basic AI system is the main driver behind all the smooth operating systems of things like Siri or voice software on smartphones.

And Google's Deep Mind is an ANI system. So again, this is exactly like the infant anecdote. Is an 8 month old saying "dada" a cool parlor trick? Or is it that child learning? And if it's learning, how is it different from the way the AI systems are learning? Did your parents and environment not program you?

The biggest hindrance to AI advancement has been lack of computational power, but those road blocks are falling daily. It's that computational advance that has opened eyes to the realization that AGI is about to happen, and it will recreate your language center. Honestly, it'll surpass your language center because it'll be able to think and take in data at speeds our brains could never match.

Look, I know this subject gets into some Frankenstein shit. The morality of it is part of the reason I got out of automation robotics, because I realized my job was predicated on a success rate of how many people I could put out of work. I get torn with AI because part of gets like a kid when I step back and look at broadly at what kind of technologies this is going to open up to us. But I also get the feeling of "someone walking over my grave" when I realize the technologies this will open up to us. And I would say this to make you step back and take an objective look....people said the same thing about heart transplants and breaking the sound barrier to name a couple. They were fantasy, dangerous, and even an afront to God. But they happened. And this is going to happen. It's already happening.

AI will be a HUGE boon to home schoolers, as it will give the best in personalized learning. Combining AI with Immersive technology is going to educate our children in ways we never could. So it's not all bad nor scary.

heavenlyboy34
11-25-2017, 11:33 AM
Then you're not up to date.

Google's Deep Learning is a basic digital neocortex, and it learns patterns in sounds, images, ect. The exact same way you learned as a child to understand your environment and the language being spoken and taught to you. This VERY basic AI system is the main driver behind all the smooth operating systems of things like Siri or voice software on smartphones.

And Google's Deep Mind is an ANI system. So again, this is exactly like the infant anecdote. Is an 8 month old saying "dada" a cool parlor trick? Or is it that child learning? And if it's learning, how is it different from the way the AI systems are learning? Did your parents and environment not program you?

The biggest hindrance to AI advancement has been lack of computational power, but those road blocks are falling daily. It's that computational advance that has opened eyes to the realization that AGI is about to happen, and it will recreate your language center. Honestly, it'll surpass your language center because it'll be able to think and take in data at speeds our brains could never match.

Look, I know this subject gets into some Frankenstein shit. The morality of it is part of the reason I got out of automation robotics, because I realized my job was predicated on a success rate of how many people I could put out of work. I get torn with AI because part of gets like a kid when I step back and look at broadly at what kind of technologies this is going to open up to us. But I also get the feeling of "someone walking over my grave" when I realize the technologies this will open up to us. And I would say this to make you step back and take an objective look....people said the same thing about heart transplants and breaking the sound barrier to name a couple. They were fantasy, dangerous, and even an afront to God. But they happened. And this is going to happen. It's already happening.

AI will be a HUGE boon to home schoolers, as it will give the best in personalized learning. Combining AI with Immersive technology is going to educate our children in ways we never could. So it's not all bad nor scary.

Thnx. Nah, that has happened since my formal linguistics studies so I didn't know of it. Tech tends to develop faster than formal education can keep up with it in many fields. :/ There are still lots of job agencies, boards, and freelance opportunities in my field, so for the short term at least I'm not too worried. :o ~hugs~

Intoxiklown
11-25-2017, 01:09 PM
Thnx. Nah, that has happened since my formal linguistics studies so I didn't know of it. Tech tends to develop faster than formal education can keep up with it in many fields. :/ There are still lots of job agencies, boards, and freelance opportunities in my field, so for the short term at least I'm not too worried. :o ~hugs~

I'm hip.

And yeah, the field is advancing at a seriously scary pace. It's kind of self feeding/enabling in that as computational power grows, AI capability increases, which facilitates increases in computational power, which increases AI capability, and so forth.

And yeah, by no means do I mean to come across as something like "your job is gone tomorrow"...lol. But honestly? Best case scenario.....10 years. But more probable is 5 years. The 5 to 10 year variance will depend on how fast our current breakthroughs in quantum computing evolve. My wife is already seeing AI systems used in the hospital she works. The system is current on all research, papers, FDA approvals, medical discoveries, and constantly updates itself. It hasn't replaced the hands on diagnostics from doctors, but is used more as a tool to help diagnose and insure best possible treatment. But it's caused my wife to take a more technical interest in what I used to do because she's realizing that we're not far at all from systems like that used in conjunction with robotics replacing the bulk f medical personnel and leaving the doctor as more of a "systems engineer" to oversee.

CaptUSA
12-08-2017, 11:53 AM
Less liberty. Thats what it will bring. Less liberty. When you can no longer drive, maintain and independently operate your own car, truck or motorcycle it will mean less liberty. Period. You dont want to do that? Fine, ride the fucking bus.

These changes will mean even more than currently your every movement will be tracked and strictly controlled by government. You think regulations will be reduced as a result of this? LOLOLOL

Sorry, I haven't been around much lately to respond to this...

If you only look at things in a static world, it's easy to be fearful, but if you understand human dynamics, you can see the bad and the good. Let me try to show you how it could lead to more liberty. (remember, I said "try")

First, traffic laws - in today's world, the police state uses traffic laws to perform all manner of violations of liberty. With self-driving vehicles, many of the road regulations that we have today will disappear. Stop lights, speed limit signs, unsafe lane changes, reckless driving, failure to yield... they all go away. And with them, the men in blue who enforce traffic violations. Red-light cameras?? There won't even be red lights to hang them on. This also works for pedestrians (check out shared space zones and amplify it with self-driving cars), no more jaywalking...

Next, mobility - there are many people who are unable to drive today and their freedom of movement is very limited. Young, old, sick, and those without a "license" have difficulty getting around. Taxis and buses are not everywhere. Even able-bodied people spend a crazy amount of time shuttling their kids from soccer to piano lessons, etc. Ordering up a vehicle to take you where you want to go will open up a whole new world to people. You don't need an able. licensed driver to waste his time to take you some place - his productivity will be used elsewhere. And think about the ability to travel while under the influence of whatever you want - you are no longer a danger to people.

Licensing - in today's world, a driver's license is used for damn near everything. But that will change when people stop driving. I'm sure there will still be some kind of ID (they'll never let you go unidentified), but it won't be a driver's license that you have to pass a government test for and pay to maintain.

Roads - why do we need governments? Roads, of course. This has been the libertarian bugaboo for ages. But when the majority of vehicles on the roads are maintained by corporation fleets, they have the incentive to maintain the roadways themselves in order to keep their vehicles damage-free. Road-building and maintenance will be baked into the costs of dialing up a car - not your taxes.

Insurance - When the cars are driving themselves, it's the company that owns the car that needs the insurance - not you.

Automobile regulations:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSx05jEB1RU

In other words, despite the doom and gloom, there are ups and downs to everything. It's all a matter of your perspective.

Anti Federalist
12-08-2017, 12:29 PM
Sorry, I haven't been around much lately to respond to this...

If you only look at things in a static world, it's easy to be fearful, but if you understand human dynamics, you can see the bad and the good. Let me try to show you how it could lead to more liberty. (remember, I said "try")

Yes, let's do that...


First, traffic laws - in today's world, the police state uses traffic laws to perform all manner of violations of liberty. With self-driving vehicles, many of the road regulations that we have today will disappear. Stop lights, speed limit signs, unsafe lane changes, reckless driving, failure to yield... they all go away. And with them, the men in blue who enforce traffic violations. Red-light cameras?? There won't even be red lights to hang them on. This also works for pedestrians (check out shared space zones and amplify it with self-driving cars), no more jaywalking...

The shift will be to mulct the population with drive by mile fees.


Next, mobility - there are many people who are unable to drive today and their freedom of movement is very limited. Young, old, sick, and those without a "license" have difficulty getting around. Taxis and buses are not everywhere. Even able-bodied people spend a crazy amount of time shuttling their kids from soccer to piano lessons, etc. Ordering up a vehicle to take you where you want to go will open up a whole new world to people. You don't need an able. licensed driver to waste his time to take you some place - his productivity will be used elsewhere. And think about the ability to travel while under the influence of whatever you want - you are no longer a danger to people.

This will never happen.

You will still be required to maintain a state of "cat like readiness" at all times, and you still will be required to be licensed in some way.

No drinking, no reading your kindle, no FedBooking, no fellatio, no fun of any kind.


Licensing - in today's world, a driver's license is used for damn near everything. But that will change when people stop driving. I'm sure there will still be some kind of ID (they'll never let you go unidentified), but it won't be a driver's license that you have to pass a government test for and pay to maintain.

Sure there will. The groundwork is already laid for that with TWIC. The worst of both worlds, mandatory inclusion in a comprehensive government snoop check and and ID database, at a cost triple to quadruple that of government issued DL, all paid not to government, but directly to the military surveillance complex.


Roads - why do we need governments? Roads, of course. This has been the libertarian bugaboo for ages. But when the majority of vehicles on the roads are maintained by corporation fleets, they have the incentive to maintain the roadways themselves in order to keep their vehicles damage-free. Road-building and maintenance will be baked into the costs of dialing up a car - not your taxes.

Insurance - When the cars are driving themselves, it's the company that owns the car that needs the insurance - not you.

Meh, never really cared much about the "muh roads" argument.

Rather have one government monopoly that at least I have a slight bit of impact on, than a corporate oligarchy.

Think any corporation, scared to death of litigation, is gonna let me ride my motorcycle without a helmet on their roads?


In other words, despite the doom and gloom, there are ups and downs to everything. It's all a matter of your perspective.

More people, with more technology, crowded into more city, means less freedom.

Always.

jllundqu
12-08-2017, 12:41 PM
This sounds like a good episode of "Black Mirror".

jllundqu
12-08-2017, 12:48 PM
Then you're not up to date.


AI will be a HUGE boon to home schoolers, as it will give the best in personalized learning. Combining AI with Immersive technology is going to educate our children in ways we never could. So it's not all bad nor scary.

As a homeschooler, I must agree with you here. Current models of educational instruction were meant to meet the demands of the 19th century and industrialization. Basically an assembly line model to crank 'worker bees' into the broader economy. It simply won't suffice for the 21st century. We literally have the entire cumulative knowledge of human history at our very fingertips... all we need is custom methods of delivery to our children in order to create a highly advanced level of instruction. I am as excited as I am scared for the future my children are growing up in. I am charged with educating them for a world that NO ONE knows what it will be like.

CaptUSA
12-08-2017, 12:59 PM
I am as excited as I am scared for the future my children are growing up in. I am charged with educating them for a world that NO ONE knows what it will be like.Exactly! This is where I am as well. Although, I've gotten pretty good at ignoring my fears and concentrating on my excitations. Life is more fun that way.

Anti Federalist
12-09-2017, 04:32 PM
Another benefit of self driving, remote controlled electric car pods:


They cancel for snow for every thing, kid had a swim meet today, we were halfway there when we got a call saying it was canceled. No snow sticking on the road.

When that happens in the future, the command from "authority" will direct your self driving car pod to immediately pull over at the nearest safe space and shut down until the weather crisis is declared all clear by "authorities".

Regardless of it being "safe" or not, nor with any regard to your getting back home.

Stuck at the airport, every day.

I, for one, can't wait for that. :rolleyes:

Warrior_of_Freedom
12-10-2017, 02:57 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_47utWAoupo

Anti Federalist
12-13-2017, 04:18 AM
Automated = Slow

https://www.ericpetersautos.com/2017/12/12/automated-slow/

By eric - December 12, 201715648

How fast will automated cars go? Will it take you longer – or less – to get where you want to go?

The answer to those questions can be discovered by taking a ride on a city bus or any other government-run public conveyance

They all operate at Least Common Denominator Speed – which will be the defining parameter for automated vehicles. For the same reason that a government-run train (DC’s Metro, for instance) accelerates very gradually, so as not to upset the fearful, the old, small children. When it stops it does so in the same manner. Gradually, with great caution for the equilibrium of the average. It will sometimes just sit. For no apparent reason.

And then, you wait.

Other examples include elevators and escalators. Or commercial aviation, for that matter. They could all go much faster in terms of the technology but don’t because they must accommodate the average person.

The below-average person.

Automated cars will be programmed similarly. This is not hypothetical. They already are.

If you’ve had a chance to drive a new car equipped with automated technology such as Emergency Automated Braking or Lane Keep Assist you will have had a taste of The Future of Transportation. The possibility that it might become necessary to brake becomes the actuality of braking, every time – because computers are programmed and don’t do nuance.

The sensors detect an object in the vehicle’s intended path – such as a car up ahead that appears to be stopped but is actually in the process of turning off. Computers – being programmed, reactive things – cannot intuit that the driver isn’t stopped in the middle of the road and that car will be out of your vehicle’s intended path by the time you get there.

Hence, no need to stab the brakes.

You wouldn’t. The computer will.

These systems do the same when they decide you’ve cut a pass too close. Or are trying to. It isn’t actually too close. It’s just too close for the embedded parameters that govern the system. Which – keep in mind – will be laid down according to the fiat of a programmer. Or more exactly, will be laid down according to the fiat of the same joy-sucking, initiative-stomping bureaucrats who currently posit absurdly low speed limits, prohibit perfectly safe U turns and rights-on-red.

Believe me. Hear me. I – in my role as a car journalist – have experienced this in multiple new cars saddled with bits and pieces of the all-controlling technology that is Our Future -unless we somehow put the kibosh on it.

Automated systems such as Emergency Automated Braking, Pedestrian Detection and Lane Keep Assist are programmed to over-react out of a super-abundance of Cloverian caution – not unlike your aging mother-in-law, who won’t even make a legal right on red unless there isn’t another car within a quarter-mile of hers and then only if pestered to make it . Who begins to slow down a quarter mile before she gets to her turn – and then practically stops in the middle of the road before actually making her turn.

Once all cars have this peremptorily programmed mother-in-law under the hood, the automated cars behind hers will also dutifully brake.

None would think of going around her – as you might, in your autonomous car – because automated cars don’t think and besides that would be illegal and the controlling intelligence is no longer yours but the embedded programming.

The automated car will not stray out of its lane, cross the double yellow to pass a herd of Lance Armstrong wannabees or come to a rolling stop at a vacant intersection, in order to avoid wasting time and fuel. All the foregoing would require situational judgment, the weighing of pros and cons – which the programming isn’t capable of exercising. If the automated car is confronted with a situation outside its parameters, it will simply stop. Like the automated Chevy Bolt GM rolled out in San Francisco last week. It encountered a double-parked taco truck, which flummoxed the automated know-it-all.

So it just parked itself.

The GM car still had a steering wheel and human-control could intervene. But what happens when the steering wheel and human control are taken out of the equation?

All automated cars will queue up at the same (slow) pace.

None shall pass. Ever again.

The taco truck-bedazzled Bolt “never mov(ed) faster than 20 miles per hour . . . (and) reacted more conservatively than a human driver, for example slowing to a near-stop after sensing a bike approaching in the opposite lane.”

Punching the gas to blast past a road Clover could become as distant a memory as the catalytic converter test pipe.

Automation of cars will mean the end of ebb and flow. No room for the exercise of individual judgment. No going faster than the herd. No stepping out of the queue.

Once you’re in – you’re in. Like riding the Metro.

This idea that we’ll all be conveyed from A to B by a computerized Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is as preposterous as the idea of an efficient and speedy DMV. Everything the government does is necessarily one-size-fits all.

Being caged in an automated car will be like having to wait behind old people on escalators. The Automated cars of Our Future will have to function this way if only for liability reasons. You can’t hold the occupant of an automated car responsible for what the programming does. So the default program will be: Slow, overcautious, herd-like and – whenever a situation arises that requires a split second judgment call – it will be decided on hewing to the letter of the law, no matter how irrelevant to the actual situation; on the basis of risk-avoidance, no matter how remote or improbable.

The one comfort – if it is one – will be that you’ll be allowed to keep yourself perpetually distracted by watching videos on YouTube or gabbling on the phone.

shakey1
12-13-2017, 08:04 AM
Being caged in an automated car will be like having to wait behind old people on escalators. The Automated cars of Our Future will have to function this way if only for liability reasons. You can’t hold the occupant of an automated car responsible for what the programming does. So the default program will be: Slow, overcautious, herd-like...

Where's the bathroom in this thing?:cool:

devil21
12-13-2017, 02:19 PM
Automated = Slow

https://www.ericpetersautos.com/2017/12/12/automated-slow/

By eric - December 12, 201715648

How fast will automated cars go? Will it take you longer – or less – to get where you want to go?

The answer to those questions can be discovered by taking a ride on a city bus or any other government-run public conveyance

They all operate at Least Common Denominator Speed – which will be the defining parameter for automated vehicles. For the same reason that a government-run train (DC’s Metro, for instance) accelerates very gradually, so as not to upset the fearful, the old, small children. When it stops it does so in the same manner. Gradually, with great caution for the equilibrium of the average. It will sometimes just sit. For no apparent reason.

And then, you wait.

Other examples include elevators and escalators. Or commercial aviation, for that matter. They could all go much faster in terms of the technology but don’t because they must accommodate the average person.

The below-average person.

Automated cars will be programmed similarly. This is not hypothetical. They already are.

If you’ve had a chance to drive a new car equipped with automated technology such as Emergency Automated Braking or Lane Keep Assist you will have had a taste of The Future of Transportation. The possibility that it might become necessary to brake becomes the actuality of braking, every time – because computers are programmed and don’t do nuance.

The sensors detect an object in the vehicle’s intended path – such as a car up ahead that appears to be stopped but is actually in the process of turning off. Computers – being programmed, reactive things – cannot intuit that the driver isn’t stopped in the middle of the road and that car will be out of your vehicle’s intended path by the time you get there.

Hence, no need to stab the brakes.

You wouldn’t. The computer will.

These systems do the same when they decide you’ve cut a pass too close. Or are trying to. It isn’t actually too close. It’s just too close for the embedded parameters that govern the system. Which – keep in mind – will be laid down according to the fiat of a programmer. Or more exactly, will be laid down according to the fiat of the same joy-sucking, initiative-stomping bureaucrats who currently posit absurdly low speed limits, prohibit perfectly safe U turns and rights-on-red.

Believe me. Hear me. I – in my role as a car journalist – have experienced this in multiple new cars saddled with bits and pieces of the all-controlling technology that is Our Future -unless we somehow put the kibosh on it.

Automated systems such as Emergency Automated Braking, Pedestrian Detection and Lane Keep Assist are programmed to over-react out of a super-abundance of Cloverian caution – not unlike your aging mother-in-law, who won’t even make a legal right on red unless there isn’t another car within a quarter-mile of hers and then only if pestered to make it . Who begins to slow down a quarter mile before she gets to her turn – and then practically stops in the middle of the road before actually making her turn.

Once all cars have this peremptorily programmed mother-in-law under the hood, the automated cars behind hers will also dutifully brake.

None would think of going around her – as you might, in your autonomous car – because automated cars don’t think and besides that would be illegal and the controlling intelligence is no longer yours but the embedded programming.

The automated car will not stray out of its lane, cross the double yellow to pass a herd of Lance Armstrong wannabees or come to a rolling stop at a vacant intersection, in order to avoid wasting time and fuel. All the foregoing would require situational judgment, the weighing of pros and cons – which the programming isn’t capable of exercising. If the automated car is confronted with a situation outside its parameters, it will simply stop. Like the automated Chevy Bolt GM rolled out in San Francisco last week. It encountered a double-parked taco truck, which flummoxed the automated know-it-all.

So it just parked itself.

The GM car still had a steering wheel and human-control could intervene. But what happens when the steering wheel and human control are taken out of the equation?

All automated cars will queue up at the same (slow) pace.

None shall pass. Ever again.

The taco truck-bedazzled Bolt “never mov(ed) faster than 20 miles per hour . . . (and) reacted more conservatively than a human driver, for example slowing to a near-stop after sensing a bike approaching in the opposite lane.”

Punching the gas to blast past a road Clover could become as distant a memory as the catalytic converter test pipe.

Automation of cars will mean the end of ebb and flow. No room for the exercise of individual judgment. No going faster than the herd. No stepping out of the queue.

Once you’re in – you’re in. Like riding the Metro.

This idea that we’ll all be conveyed from A to B by a computerized Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is as preposterous as the idea of an efficient and speedy DMV. Everything the government does is necessarily one-size-fits all.

Being caged in an automated car will be like having to wait behind old people on escalators. The Automated cars of Our Future will have to function this way if only for liability reasons. You can’t hold the occupant of an automated car responsible for what the programming does. So the default program will be: Slow, overcautious, herd-like and – whenever a situation arises that requires a split second judgment call – it will be decided on hewing to the letter of the law, no matter how irrelevant to the actual situation; on the basis of risk-avoidance, no matter how remote or improbable.

The one comfort – if it is one – will be that you’ll be allowed to keep yourself perpetually distracted by watching videos on YouTube or gabbling on the phone.

How fast do you need to go when the range of travel is limited to a 10 mile radius within city limits? That's where this goes.

Danke
12-16-2017, 09:19 PM
Honestly, some of your time frame projections are most likely to great. Conservative estimates put full autonomous vehicles (meaning both commercial and private) as the norm by 2022. These vehicles are already being built and sold today with the hardware installed, they are merely waiting for the software. We'll almost assuredly start seeing nationwide legislation limiting or banning manually operated vehicles on the road around 2030 at the latest.

AI systems are going to replace a LOT of jobs over the next 20 years. Medical personnel, legal personnel (lawyers), 90%+ of manual labor, engineers, basically people ranging from high school drop outs to people who hold Ph.Ds. And I'm sorry Danke, but airplane pilots as well. And I'm a pilot, but I also have a background in this kind of technology.

With how digitally plugged in our world has become, more so with iOt systems everywhere (along the lines of 5 million devices coming online daily) as well as AI and quantum computing advances being made at a staggering pace we are literally witnessing a 4th industrial revolution that WILL happen in our lifetimes (unless you're 65+ and sickly).

And you're right AF regarding the high possibility of a UBI system. It's where my brain bucks at where we're heading. Honestly, it's most likely one of the main drivers pushing governments to a cashless society. I fully agree there is a control mechanism within the push, but there is also a proactive element to it regarding looking at ways to prevent millions of unemployed people storming their capitals. It's why I mentioned some very worrisome economic concerns in another thread discussion this topic. I'm not even going to open the can of worms relating to privacy issues that will arise. As I've said before, this is a rabbit hole that gets real deep real fast.

pick a year.

Intoxiklown
12-17-2017, 01:45 AM
pick a year.


Pick a year for what? For when human pilots will be replaced? Any guess I give will be in windows of 20 years, so nothing to write home about. You have to understand that previous concerns weren't valid due to lacking accompanying tech like computational power. That hurdle is shrinking daily, and as it progresses so does AI's potential. And as AI's potential grows, so does computing power possibilities. And so on and so on.

Will it be in 3 years? 5? 10?

Who knows. 10 years would be indicative of some massive jumps for it to happen that fast, and by happen I am speaking to infant steps of beginning implementation. But by the time 2040-2050...that window is here....it's more cynical to say it won't happen than it will. The main thing holding back AGI right now is waiting for true quantum computing to be achieved. Once that happens, things will move at a blur. But AI can't mature into it's full possibilities until it can be given the computational power it needs to evolve.

Intoxiklown
12-17-2017, 02:03 AM
Thnx. Nah, that has happened since my formal linguistics studies so I didn't know of it. Tech tends to develop faster than formal education can keep up with it in many fields. :/ There are still lots of job agencies, boards, and freelance opportunities in my field, so for the short term at least I'm not too worried. :o ~hugs~

Was doing some reading, and came across an article that made me think of you. It deals with tech and your field specifically, as well as talks to issues they are having to overcome. I thought you might enjoy it.


Excerpt from article:

Despite their growing popularity, apps and services such as these have come to criticism for their inability to accurately infer the meaning of what is being said. Humans often use context to determine the meaning of words, and consider how individual words interact with each other. These combinations are in constant change owing to evolving human creativity.

The latest technologies offer the most viable solution yet. UK-based startup Mymanu is deploying “smart” earbuds to make conversations in multiple languages easier with the Clik.

Clik earbuds contain a microphone and microprocessor that does the “brain” work, and promises to translate 37 different languages in real time. The ear bud analyses an entire sentence in order to “understand” the context of what is being said and issue an appropriate interpretation. It’s understood the maximum waiting time for translation is 5-10 seconds.

While translation technology no longer fails as often as it used to and may eventually replace translators for the more mundane (or less nuanced) tasks where “good enough” is good enough, the tech still seems to be lacking the human element.

Link: http://www.digitalistmag.com/future-of-work/2017/01/26/technology-replace-human-interpreters-04870428?cp=4870428

A link to the article covering the earbuds they discuss if you're interested:

Article excerpt:

So how does it work? Once you've got your buds and grabbed the Mymanu companion smartphone app you'll be able to download 9 language packs. These contain the 37 different languages including French, Spanish and Japanese. These can be synced and stored on the truly wireless in-ears.

Once you've chosen what language you want to hear it will automatically detect the language being spoken and doesn't require any data connection. If you're speaking to somebody that's in another country or you're on a conference call where several different people are speaking different languages, then you'll need to use the cloud to provide the translation.

Link: https://www.wareable.com/hearables/mymanu-clik-translation-earbuds-release-date-price-specs-3753

Tube ad:


https://youtu.be/dN3WvBohZDA

heavenlyboy34
12-18-2017, 12:23 AM
Was doing some reading, and came across an article that made me think of you. It deals with tech and your field specifically, as well as talks to issues they are having to overcome. I thought you might enjoy it.


Excerpt from article:

Despite their growing popularity, apps and services such as these have come to criticism for their inability to accurately infer the meaning of what is being said. Humans often use context to determine the meaning of words, and consider how individual words interact with each other. These combinations are in constant change owing to evolving human creativity.

The latest technologies offer the most viable solution yet. UK-based startup Mymanu is deploying “smart” earbuds to make conversations in multiple languages easier with the Clik.

Clik earbuds contain a microphone and microprocessor that does the “brain” work, and promises to translate 37 different languages in real time. The ear bud analyses an entire sentence in order to “understand” the context of what is being said and issue an appropriate interpretation. It’s understood the maximum waiting time for translation is 5-10 seconds.

While translation technology no longer fails as often as it used to and may eventually replace translators for the more mundane (or less nuanced) tasks where “good enough” is good enough, the tech still seems to be lacking the human element.

Link: http://www.digitalistmag.com/future-of-work/2017/01/26/technology-replace-human-interpreters-04870428?cp=4870428

A link to the article covering the earbuds they discuss if you're interested:

Article excerpt:

So how does it work? Once you've got your buds and grabbed the Mymanu companion smartphone app you'll be able to download 9 language packs. These contain the 37 different languages including French, Spanish and Japanese. These can be synced and stored on the truly wireless in-ears.

Once you've chosen what language you want to hear it will automatically detect the language being spoken and doesn't require any data connection. If you're speaking to somebody that's in another country or you're on a conference call where several different people are speaking different languages, then you'll need to use the cloud to provide the translation.

Link: https://www.wareable.com/hearables/mymanu-clik-translation-earbuds-release-date-price-specs-3753

Tube ad:


https://youtu.be/dN3WvBohZDA

Interesting! Kurwa! :eek: I personally work primarily in literary translation, tho. Interpreting is something I won't be good enough to do for a while yet. This poses a slew of challenges for computers. Since it lacks the context of voice inflection and whatnot, the translator has to use some literary skill as well as translating skill. I'm sure you've read a slavish translation of something in your life-it's tedious and painful, amirite? That's why ya need a translator who knows the target language! :D

PursuePeace
12-18-2017, 12:35 AM
If you had said, "I want you to picture a man whose job is "emoji translator", I would have pictured that guy in my mind, except he has a man-bun.

You cannot give Reputation to the same post twice.

Whenever this thread gets bumped and I read this post, I can't not laugh.
Just the sheer absurdity of this current world that I'm living in.... which looks nothing like anything I imagined the future to be when I was a kid.

Occam's Banana
12-18-2017, 04:51 AM
This poses a slew of challenges for computers. Since it lacks the context of voice inflection and whatnot, [...]

https://i.imgur.com/Z9jmtSl.jpg