Saudi Escalation: Lebanon And Yemen In The Crosshairs [Archive]

AZJoe

11-10-2017, 08:53 AM

From philip giraldi (http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2017/november/10/america-s-allies-are-setting-up-another-trap-for-us-in-the-middle-east/)

The Hariri resignation was certainly carried out in collusion with Riyadh, to include the damning of Iranian influence as his reason for leaving. It suggests that the Saudis and Israelis ... are feeling confident enough to move towards some kind of showdown ...

The United States is clearly privately approving the Israeli and Saudi moves, as Washington, Riyadh and Tel Aviv have all adamantly opposed the existence of the Lebanese coalition dominated by Aoun and Hezbollah’s Nasrullah ... The next step will be for Israel fighter aircraft to increase their incursions into Lebanese airspace ... The activity would be intended to provoke a Lebanese response that would escalate into an incident that will lead to a major strike to bring the Beirut government down. The ultimate objective is to create a Saudi and Israeli-led grand Sunni alliance ...

A supportive Washington role in the conflict will of course be indispensable and there is every sign that it would be forthcoming, with grand strategists like Generals Mattis and McMaster no doubt envisioning a roll-up of Shi’as starting in Lebanon and working eastward while the Saudis continue their aggression against Yemen ... Israel will also undoubtedly step up its attacks on Syrian Army positions, claiming that it is striking Hezbollah ... Israel has made it very clear that it will attack any Iranian military positions that are established in Syria.

It is important to recall that clever plans to remake the Middle East have hitherto been remarkable for their inability to anticipate countermoves by opposing forces. Bashar al-Assad has survived an onslaught directed by the very same alignment ... and Hezbollah proved so successful against Israel that Israeli war plans now rule out any action on the ground ...

AZJoe

11-11-2017, 08:07 AM

Misadventures of the Clown Prince MBS (http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/11/saudi-arabia-the-liberal-reformer-reveals-himself-as-an-impulsive-tyrant-.html#more):

It is becoming more difficult to hide the mess the Saudi clown prince Mohammad bin Salman creates. ...

The clown prince of Saudi Barbaria practically abducted the Prime Minister of Lebanon, blackmailed him to resign (http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/11/lebanon-hariris-resignation-the-opening-shot-of-the-saudi-war-on-hizbullah.html) and holds him since under house arrest. This is an unprecedented attack on the sovereignty of Lebanon and all other countries. Yet the U.S. and some European leaders cowardly pretend (http://www.macon.com/news/nation-world/article183841891.html) that Saad Hariri is free to go ...

Hariri ... is as free to leave his current residence as Julian Assange in free to leave the Ecuadorian embassy in London. ...

It is obvious that Hariri did not (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/lebanon-prime-minister-saad-hariri-resignation-not-all-seems-quits-resigns-surprise-saudi-arabia-a8045636.html) travel to Saudi Arabia last Saturday with the intent to resign from his job:
Hariri had scheduled meetings in Beirut on the following Monday – with the IMF, the World Bank and a series of discussions on water quality improvement; not exactly the action of a man who planned to resign his premiership. ...

The unofficial version of Hariri's meeting with the U.S. and French ambassador is diverging (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/09/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-lebanon-war.html) from the one above:
Mr. Hariri, a dual citizen of Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, met the ambassadors of Britain and the European Union and the chargé d’affaires from the American Embassy on Wednesday and Thursday at his Riyadh residence. Other Western diplomats, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that those envoys, too, came away with the impression that he could not speak freely.

Even the State Department spokesperson lets slip (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/declines-comment-hariri-status-saudi-arabia-171110062317904.html) that Harairi is not free to go:
"We have seen him. In terms of the conditions of him being held or the conversations between Saudi Arabia and Prime Minister Hariri, I would have to refer you to the government of Saudi Arabia and also to Mr Hariri's office."

Hariri's own political party in Lebanon has united with its enemy Hizbullah and the Christian President Aoun in a call (http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/238010-mustaqbal-hariri-s-return-necessary-to-restore-balance) for Hariri to come back and explain himself to the Lebanese people:
“The return of the head of the Lebanese government, the national leader and the head of al-Mustaqbal Movement Saad Hariri is necessary to restore respect for Lebanon's balance at home and abroad, in the framework of full respect for the Lebanese legitimacy represented in the Constitution and the Taef Accord and in respecting the Arab and international legitimacies,” said Mustaqbal in a statement issued after an emergency meeting for its parliamentary bloc and political bureau.

The Saudis have told their citizens in Lebanon to leave the country. Its allies Kuwait, UAE and Bahrain have followed suit. ...

Without the 160,000 Lebanese book keepers and managers the Saudi economy would probably collapse.

The similarities with the idiotic Saudi campaign against Qatar is obvious. ...

The French and other countries' cowardliness towards the clown prince extends to the starving of Yemen. UN flights with immediately needed medical supplies and food have been blocked by Saudi authorities. The ports for food shipment are blockaded. UN officials warn of an imminent massive famine (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/yemen-facing-massive-famine-blockade-lifted-171109035915768.html) and are begging everyone to intervene. But nothing has been heard from Macron or any other "western" politician.

Meanwhile the Saudi tyrant's purge ... continues. Some 500 people have been arrested ...

One important aspect of the purge is the open robbery that is part of it. ... The Wall Street Journal reports (https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-expands-crackdown-on-elite-1510062385) that the people around MbS expect to steal up to $800 billion in assets from the ultra rich businessmen and princes they have now under their control. ...

Who will be willing to invest even a penny in Saudi Arabia after such a shakedown? There is no rule of law and there are no reliable courts. ...

Trump had voiced full support for the Saudi moves. ... Secretary of State Tillerson is (https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2017/11/275454.htm) finally rowing back (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-arrests-usa/u-s-s-tillerson-concerned-over-saudi-purge-monitoring-hariri-situation-idUSKBN1DA1RO) Trump's grandstanding. ...

On Lebanon Tillerson warns Israel of any intervention. ... He does not recognize the compelled "resignation" ...

The two steps on Lebanon and on the internal purge seem too impulsive to be part of a greater plan. They begin to look like the other "adventures" MbS started in Qatar and Yemen. Aimless campaigns ... In all these cases the long term damage to Saudi Arabia will be huge.

Any day now the clown prince will become king of Saudi Arabia. ... his country is unlikely to survive another five years of such impulsive and tyrannic behavior. ...

As another example of MbS' impulsiveness re-consider this episode. In 2016 Salman spontaneously bought (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/16/world/rise-of-saudi-prince-shatters-decades-of-royal-tradition.html) a used motor-barge for $550 million ... The boat had been constructed since 2007 and launched in 2011. Its price then was $330 million (€300m) (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2106193/Its-electrifying--330m-super-yacht-lit-neon-runners-owned-Russian-vodka-tycoon-spotted-California-coast.html) ... After five years of use its the fair value was probably two-third of the original price. MbS paid 250% of the actual value because he wanted the boat right then and there and because he could. A thirty year old, who has never worked to make money, wasted $330 million on an impulse buy. Money that would rightfully belong to the people of the Arab peninsula. ...