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DamianTV
10-07-2017, 12:18 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-05/san-franciscans-pissed-their-own-liberal-policies-make-it-impossible-find-affordable


In a note that we'll file away under the definition of 'irony', Bloomberg wrote today that the fun-loving, free-spirited socialists of San Francisco are suddenly really pissed off that their liberal economic policies have resulted in a wave of restaurant failures, making it nearly impossible to find good food at an 'affordable' price.

We would be pissed too...who could have guessed that artificially raising wages well above market supported rates would result in business failures?

On Thursday, the Michelin Guide announced its 2018 Bib Gourmand winners for San Francisco with only 67 restaurants on the list this year, a decrease from the 74 restaurants in 2017. Twelve restaurants in total dropped off, once you factor in some new additions. In 2016, there were 73 restaurants, and in 2015, 76 were on the list.

Restaurants that rate a spot on the Bib Gourmand list are defined as places that offer notable food at a reasonable price. Michelin specifically defines that as two courses plus dessert or wine for $40, not including tax or tip. A group of anonymous inspectors choose the restaurants. Bib Gourmand restaurants are not eligible to receive Michelin stars.

Some of the attrition on the 2018 list is due to places that simply fell off (or maybe even got promoted to the star list, proper), like Bistro Jeanty in Yountville, Bistro 29 in Santa Rosa, and Le Garage in Sausalito. But the alarming rate of restaurant closures in the Bay Area also accounts for the dip on the list, with spots like Bar Tartine and Mason Pacific in San Francisco and Scopa in Healdsburg wine country shutting their doors.

So what was the catalyst that sparked the ongoing massive wave of San Francisco restaurant failures? Well, Bloomberg figures it's the result of soaring minimum wages and health care costs...you know, all the things that San Fran liberals argue and protest for.

Factors like skyrocketing rents, minimum wage and health care have certainly taken a toll on Bib Gourmand-style restaurants around the Bay Area. More than 60 restaurants closed between Sept. 2016 and Jan. 2017, according to the East Bay Times. “We’re at this precipice where the model of the full-service restaurant is being pushed to the brink,” said Gwyneth Borden, executive director of the Golden Gate Restaurant Association.

Although ecstatic by the news of her Bib Gourmand, Brown Sugar Kitchen’s chef/owner Tanya Holland echoed the sentiment during a phone interview: “It’s so challenging to operate this kind of restaurant in the Bay Area right now” especially when it comes to staffing, she said.

Of course, as we pointed out back in January, a Thrillist article written by Kevin Alexander highlighted the demise of one independently owned restaurant in San Francisco, AQ, that shut down earlier this year for all the same reasons listed above. When it came to minimum wage hikes, Alexander found that just a $1 per hour minimum wage increase reduced an independent restaurant's already thin profit margins by $20,000, or 10%. So we imagine the $5 minimum wage hike that California just passed is probably slightly less than optimal for restaurant owners.

I should say before I go any further that all of the restaurant owners and chefs I've talked to are compassionate humans who support better coverage and livable wages, and seem on the whole progressive by nature, but restaurant margins are already slim as hell. There are no political agendas here -- they're just genuinely worried about how to afford to pay extra without radically changing the way they do business.

Let's start with the minimum wage. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, of the 2.6 million people earning around the minimum wage in 2015, the highest percentage came from service jobs in the food industry. Though the Obama administration's attempt to increase the federal minimum wage above $7.25 failed, 21 states and 22 cities have raised the minimum wage starting this year, including Washington, DC ($12.50 an hour), Massachusetts ($11), New York ($9.70), and Arkansas ($8.50).

Considering that hour-wage workers are usually the lowest earners and the increase is essential to ensure they earn an actual living, this is the least controversial of the newer expenses and something almost everyone in the industry supports, in theory, but it doesn't change the fact that it's an additional cost that must be factored in. If you have 10 hourly employees working eight-hour shifts, five days a week and you raise the wages a dollar an hour, that comes out to a nearly $20K increase on the year. In AQ's best year -- a phenomenal year by restaurant standards -- that would have been nearly 10% of profits.

...

Full article on link.

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Yeah, we didnt see this coming... :rolleyes:

timosman
10-07-2017, 12:20 PM
http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/af/af5990859764e6772cce4fb97b2137871606c2f9063e75e0bd 6930399703d16c.jpg

Brian4Liberty
10-07-2017, 01:31 PM
Many of the most successful long term restaurants are money laundering operations, which tends to distort analysis of costs and profits.

timosman
10-07-2017, 01:46 PM
Many of the most successful long term restaurants are money laundering operations, which tends to distort analysis of costs and profits.

Any details on how exactly this is done?

Brian4Liberty
10-07-2017, 01:56 PM
Any details on how exactly this is done?

Have at it...


- Cash-intensive businesses: In this method, a business typically expected to receive a large proportion of its revenue as cash uses its accounts to deposit criminally derived cash. Such enterprises often operate openly and in doing so generate cash revenue from incidental legitimate business in addition to the illicit cash – in such cases the business will usually claim all cash received as legitimate earnings. Service businesses are best suited to this method, as such enterprises have little or no variable costs and/or a large ratio between revenue and variable costs, which makes it difficult to detect discrepancies between revenues and costs. Examples are parking structures, strip clubs, tanning salons, car washes, and casinos.
...
- Black salaries: A company may have unregistered employees without written contracts and pay them cash salaries. Dirty money might be used to pay them.
...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_laundering

timosman
10-07-2017, 02:00 PM
Have at it...

Seems like small potatoes.:cool:

Brian4Liberty
10-07-2017, 02:02 PM
Seems like small potatoes.:cool:

Yeah, nothing like they get away with on Wall St...

Voluntarist
10-07-2017, 02:26 PM
xxxxx

Swordsmyth
10-07-2017, 02:36 PM
The original Bloomberg article is at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-05/michelin-guide-san-francisco-is-losing-inexpensive-restaurants
... and I don't see anywhere in it where the quoted assertion made by Zerohedge is even mentioned in the Bloomberg article. It might well be that the fun-loving, free-spirited socialists of San Francisco are suddenly really pissed off (which, reality check, I seriously doubt); but the Bloomberg article doesn't state that, or even allude to it.

Zerohedge is putting it's own spin on it. Where Zerohedge quoted Bloomberg as:

... If you take that at face value, Zerohedge is spinning it to make it appear that the minimum wage hike is the reason for the staffing problem. In all actuality, the Bloomberg article went on with the interview, which established the reason for it as the competition for competent talent:

... so it seems that the issue isn't the minimum wage - it's that competent help is being scarfed up by tech companies willing to pay that help what it's worth (complete with benefits and normal 9 to 5 work shifts).

The business model in San Francisco is changing - small "mom and pop" outlets that are affordable to the average Joe no longer work. The interviewee from above goes on to state:
“My business model in this current facility doesn’t even work,” she continues. “It’s too small. I’m opening a 100-seat restaurant with a liquor license, and I’m launching a counter at Ferry Plaza building. Those are the kinds of models that work right now.”

Here's the thing: I had a positive emotional response to the Zerohedge article you posted. And now I'm pissed because it's patently clear that Zerohedge pushed my emotional buttons rather than convinced me of a substantive argument based upon real evidence. And going forward, Zerohedge is going to have to compensate for that in order to get my attention - At face value, I'm going to be doubting everything they write. They're going for web hits from an audience that doesn't question what they write.

I'd love to see some evidence that the minimum wage increases in San Francisco (and other liberal bastions like Seattle) is having a detrimental impact - but the Zerohedge article, as well as the Bloomberg article it's based upon, just don't support that.

As the Bloomberg article points out:

... so it seems the fun-loving, free-spirited socialists of San Francisco are loving every second of it.

“It’s so challenging to operate this kind of restaurant in the Bay Area right now” especially when it comes to staffing, she said. “The issue is that the tech companies have million-dollar kitchens and budgets, they’re taking all the great talent and offering benefits and 9-to-5 hours. Meanwhile, the restaurant business is a grind, and the cost of doing business is insane in the Bay Area. Independent operators are getting pushed out. I cook accessible food, and you have to charge accessible prices for that.”

That seems to be where ZH got their idea, cost of doing business can be taken as taxes and regulations or just as economic factors.

angelatc
10-07-2017, 02:36 PM
“It’s so challenging to operate this kind of restaurant in the Bay Area right now” especially when it comes to staffing, she said. “The issue is that the tech companies have million-dollar kitchens and budgets, they’re taking all the great talent and offering benefits and 9-to-5 hours. Meanwhile, the restaurant business is a grind, and the cost of doing business is insane in the Bay Area. Independent operators are getting pushed out. I cook accessible food, and you have to charge accessible prices for that.”
... so it seems that the issue isn't the minimum wage - it's that competent help is being scarfed up by tech companies willing to pay that help what it's worth (complete with benefits and normal 9 to 5 work shifts).

Sure. My assumption is that the tech companies are subsidizing their in-house food service as a perk / benefit for the employees. Looks like pretty soon you'll have to know someone in the tech industry if you want to eat an affordable meal at a restaurant in that area.

Voluntarist
10-07-2017, 02:51 PM
xxxxx

Zippyjuan
10-07-2017, 05:35 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/04/24/minimum-wage-hikes-do-close-restaurants-just-not-the-ones-you-care-about/?utm_term=.5b5c9bcee26f


Minimum-wage hikes do close restaurants. Just not the ones you care about.

An increase in the minimum wage does cause restaurants to close, a new study suggests. But only a certain kind of restaurant: the ones that patrons already liked less.

The study, a working paper by Dara Lee Luca at Mathematica Policy Research and Michael Luca at the Harvard Business School, analyzed almost 10 years of Yelp rating and closure data from more than 30,000 San Francisco Bay area restaurants. By comparing closure rates to user ratings and the timing of the region’s multiple minimum-wage increases, the Lucas, who are married, were able to determine how the hikes impacted a restaurant’s chances of closing.

Those chances varied widely by the restaurant’s popularity, concludes the study, which was sponsored by Yelp. Among 3.5-star restaurants, every $1 increase in the minimum wage increases the restaurant’s chances of closing by 14 percent. But five-star restaurants don’t experience that same effect.

“You are losing something from the market,” Michael Luca acknowledged. “But what you’re losing is the lower-quality businesses.”

The Lucas' results speak to a critical question in the debate over minimum wage: Whom will higher wages hurt in the wider economy? While this data doesn't address questions of jobs or unemployment, which many other studies have done, it does suggest that the impact on business may be less confined than some critics have expected. Rather than handicapping successful businesses, higher wages appear to shorten the time before unsuccessful businesses close. And because there's a great deal of churn in the restaurant industry, new restaurants frequently replace the old ones.

Luca has a few theories on why minimum-wage hikes might impact low-quality restaurants more than high-quality ones. For starters, five-star restaurants generally have better service. (That’s a component of the Yelp score.) It makes more economic sense for a restaurant that values and depends on good service to invest more heavily in its workforce.

Luca’s data also suggests that five-star restaurants are generally more profitable: that makes them less susceptible to market shocks, and more likely to stay open at any wage level. A three-star restaurant would also be more vulnerable, Luca said, to something like sudden increases in rent.

“At any wage level, some businesses are doing well and some aren’t,” Luca said. “If you’re closest to the margin already, then something like a minimum-wage increase is more likely to push you over the edge.”

Importantly, Luca’s study did not look at the impact of wage increases on employment — something he emphasizes. Because food service is a high-churn industry, in which restaurants open and close and employees move around all the time, the fact that one restaurant closes does not necessarily mean more people will be unemployed.

There is also little correlation between a restaurant’s Yelp rating and its price, Luca cautioned. While it may be tempting to come away from his results with the impression that low-end restaurants — and employees — face more risk, that is not consistent with the data, Luca said.

In his sample, the average restaurant had a tenure of almost six years, a rating of 3.6 stars, and a price indicator of 1.6 “dollar signs” — Yelp-speak for roughly $22 per head.

According to Yelp, nearly half of all the reviews on its platform give five stars. Roughly one-third award three stars or less.

“If anything, the study shows that a higher minimum wage might make the market more competitive and reduce the number of poor performers,” concluded Paul Sonn, the general counsel and program director at the National Employment Law Project. “Some firms are better at adjusting to competitive pressure than others.”

Whether the restaurant industry needs more competitive pressure is, of course, a matter of debate. Running a restaurant is already a delicate business, with more than half of all restaurants shuttering in their first year. And lately, the industry has faced added competition from delivery services, supermarkets and convenience stores, which have all stepped up their ready-made meal games.

Swordsmyth
10-07-2017, 05:40 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/04/24/minimum-wage-hikes-do-close-restaurants-just-not-the-ones-you-care-about/?utm_term=.5b5c9bcee26f

So know it is OK not to care about the little guy?

It's OK ladies and gentlemen our actions will only hurt people not persons.:rolleyes:

timosman
10-07-2017, 05:49 PM
We all need to be more efficient because inefficiency is bad. I don't know how many times I have seen people slacking at work.

Having good Yelp reviews is also important. Yelp is very objective and can rate a business with a great precision, at least two digits or more.

All of this creates a better future for us all. We are going to be so efficient that when the machines replace us nobody will be able to tell the difference.

I am so excited about the future! A world without sin. An absolute perfection. :cool:

NorthCarolinaLiberty
10-07-2017, 09:36 PM
“If anything, the study shows that a higher minimum wage might make the market more competitive and reduce the number of poor performers,” concluded Paul Sonn, the general counsel and program director at the National Employment Law Project.




While also increasing the number of poor performing employees.




“Some firms are better at adjusting to competitive pressure than others.”

Some employees are better at adjusting to competitive pressure than others.

It cuts both ways, Paul.

dannno
10-08-2017, 04:08 AM
Any details on how exactly this is done?

Have you not seen Ozark on Netflix?


Have at it...

timosman
10-08-2017, 04:14 AM
Have you not seen Ozark on Netflix?

Nope. What's the story?

dannno
10-08-2017, 04:16 AM
Nope. What's the story?

Jason Bateman gets involved with some money laundering operation in Chicago and almost ends up dead, but convinces the Mexican cartel he can launder a bunch of their money in the Ozarks.

It was pretty entertaining, if you can get over the homosexual relationship one of the FBI agents has with some local guy he meets in the Ozarks, they bond over fly fishing.

timosman
10-08-2017, 04:23 AM
Jason Bateman gets involved with some money laundering operation in Chicago and almost ends up dead, but convinces the Mexican cartel he can launder a bunch of their money in the Ozarks.

It was pretty entertaining, if you can get over the homosexual relationship one of the FBI agents has with some local guy he meets in the Ozarks, they bond over fly fishing.

I think I will find a review with the details of the operation.:cool: