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View Full Version : 2012 Ron Paul voters for 2016 Trump?




kusok
08-22-2017, 02:59 PM
I have heard and seen many times on some forums Ron Paul supporters from previous election, and just Libertarians in general switch to Trump in 2016. I'm wondering wether there are any statistics on that. I understand Trump outperformed Clinton by 4-6% among non GOP and non Democrat voters. But I was wondering more specifically about Libertarians, not just any Independents.

I also read that according to "I side with" poll 15% of Ron Paul voters voted Trump, only Rand got more (Kasich apparently also was around 14%



Cliffs:
- did more Ron Paul voters vote for Trump or for Clinton?

nikcers
08-22-2017, 05:54 PM
I have heard and seen many times on some forums Ron Paul supporters from previous election, and just Libertarians in general switch to Trump in 2016. I'm wondering wether there are any statistics on that. I understand Trump outperformed Clinton by 4-6% among non GOP and non Democrat voters. But I was wondering more specifically about Libertarians, not just any Independents.

I also read that according to "I side with" poll 15% of Ron Paul voters voted Trump, only Rand got more (Kasich apparently also was around 14%



Cliffs:
- did more Ron Paul voters vote for Trump or for Clinton?


afaik the RNC doesn't have any data on this because Ron & Rand Paul didn't share data with the RNC, unlike the other candidates.

r3volution 3.0
08-22-2017, 07:20 PM
Taking Iowa as an example (the only state Rand competed in), Rand got <5%, while Ron got >21% in 2012.

Where did that >16% go?

Well, Cruz, Trump, and Rubio took 75% of the vote. Carson was next with 9%, then Rand. I can't see any meaningful number of Ron people going with Rubio, under any circumstances. I'd guess that Carson took a couple points, Cruz a bit more, and Trump the lion's share. That's based on my unscientific observation of former Ron voters: lots of pro-Trump sentiment among them, very little about Cruz or Carson. It makes sense at a certain level. Most Ron voters weren't really libertarians; they mostly liked Ron because he was different, was fighting the status quo, etc, which Trump also appeared (to the untrained eye) to be doing.

phill4paul
08-22-2017, 07:25 PM
Taking Iowa as an example (the only state Rand competed in), Rand got <5%, while Ron got >21% in 2012.

Where did that >16% go?

Well, Cruz, Trump, and Rubio took 75% of the vote. Carson was next with 9%, then Rand. I can't see any meaningful number of Ron people going with Rubio, under any circumstances. I'd guess that Carson took a couple points, Cruz a bit more, and Trump the lion's share. That's based on my unscientific observation of former Ron voters: lots of pro-Trump sentiment among them, very little about Cruz or Carson. It makes sense at a certain level. Most Ron voters weren't really libertarians; they mostly liked Ron because he was different, was fighting the status quo, etc, which Trump also appeared (to the untrained eye) to be doing.

I'd guess quite a few of the Ron Paul Revolution just said "Fuck it." I know I did.

r3volution 3.0
08-22-2017, 07:26 PM
I'd guess quite a few of the Ron Paul Revolution just said "Fuck it." I know I did.

Yea...

That too, unfortunately.

Brian4Liberty
08-22-2017, 07:37 PM
Between 2012-2015, the teocons like Hannity, Levin and Beck did everything in their power to undermine and co-opt Rand's campaign support (to divert to Cruz and Rubio). Then came Trump like a bowling ball right through the middle. The hate from neocons towards Trump (because of Trump's professed foreign policy) left Rand with nothing but core supporters.

CaptUSA
08-22-2017, 07:53 PM
Looks like the OP has been away from the forums for quite awhile. I think most of us have come to the conclusion that Ron Paul's numbers in 2012 were incredibly inflated due to people who were mainly contrarian.

In 2012, Ron Paul was the loudest contrarian voice and had little competition. Therefore, he was like a magnet for people of all stripes that had little understanding of what Ron Paul really stood for.

in 2016, the people who really got it voted for Rand, Johnson, stayed home, or wrote in Ron Paul. (that's what I did.) The rest found a home with Bernie or Trump. Both Bernie and Trump spoke to the contrarian streak in us all. "Your problems aren't your fault. The system is working against you. The establishment doesn't want you to win."

The difference, of course, is that of the 3, only Ron Paul really knew the solution to those problems. Liberty. The other two are fakers.