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View Full Version : Myth-Busters: Is The Fear of Robots Overblown?




jct74
06-04-2017, 02:38 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48jvsLBoiYk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48jvsLBoiYk



Fear and power go hand in hand. There are always new fears (real and imagined) that power seeks to capitalize on. A new one is the fear that robots "will take all of our jobs." Lots of government "solutions" are being tossed around, but hardly a mention of government being the problem. Ron Paul discusses on today's Myth-Busters!

Warrior_of_Freedom
06-04-2017, 04:14 PM
every time I click on a myth busters topic I feel like I'm going to see Adam and Jamie

ChristianAnarchist
06-04-2017, 04:41 PM
Love the good Doctor and of course he's mostly right in this video but I have to disagree on the overall question of jobs and robots. I do believe that all jobs are in danger of going away due to robots. I do agree with him, of course, on there should be ZERO goonerment involvement in this issue. The market will provide the best solution but of course the goonerment will NOT leave this issue alone and you can count on whatever they do being wrong.

Why do I think jobs will go away and there will be insufficient "new" jobs to replace them?

We have never seen this level of advancement in the history of man. The advances are coming faster than we can adjust to them. Soon there is NO job that robots won't be able to perform (if the current trend is to continue). For instance, we are in medicine. My wife is a doctor. Even HER job will be gone in the not too distant future. AI is making inroads in treating disease and it won't be too long when you will be able to have your vitals checked by a machine that will input the results into the data base along with your input as to symptoms and concerns and the AI will spit out your treatment and send you away with your prescriptions. What will a doctor be needed for? The "personal touch"?? Most every manufacturing job will go away, most every service job will go away, academic jobs will go away...

I don't see much left. There are some 2 billion people on this ball and I don't see that there will be much for them to do to earn a living. I hope I'm wrong and some new and inventive "use" for human skills will pop up but I sure can't see what it will be...

merkelstan
06-04-2017, 06:12 PM
This episode fails to make the distinction between robots, which are machine automation, and AI, which might ultimately supplant our last advantage.

If AI surpasses human intelligence, it will be diagnosing your disease, picking your stocks, arbitrating your contract disputes, writing your textbooks, doing the science research etc.

Now that is a big IF, but one that people are rightfully worried about.

CaptUSA
06-04-2017, 07:34 PM
Once again, Ron Paul nails it!

I know I'm pretty much a lone voice here on this topic, but human wants are unlimited. Always have been, always will be. No amount of AI or technology will ever be able to stop that. And since wants are unlimited, there will always be a way for people to provide value to other people. We just don't know what that means, yet. Which is why it's hard to envision. It's much easier (and mentally, lazier) to look at our current wants being met with future technology.

Anti Federalist
06-04-2017, 11:10 PM
Love the good Doctor and of course he's mostly right in this video but I have to disagree on the overall question of jobs and robots. I do believe that all jobs are in danger of going away due to robots. I do agree with him, of course, on there should be ZERO goonerment involvement in this issue. The market will provide the best solution but of course the goonerment will NOT leave this issue alone and you can count on whatever they do being wrong.

Why do I think jobs will go away and there will be insufficient "new" jobs to replace them?

We have never seen this level of advancement in the history of man. The advances are coming faster than we can adjust to them. Soon there is NO job that robots won't be able to perform (if the current trend is to continue). For instance, we are in medicine. My wife is a doctor. Even HER job will be gone in the not too distant future. AI is making inroads in treating disease and it won't be too long when you will be able to have your vitals checked by a machine that will input the results into the data base along with your input as to symptoms and concerns and the AI will spit out your treatment and send you away with your prescriptions. What will a doctor be needed for? The "personal touch"?? Most every manufacturing job will go away, most every service job will go away, academic jobs will go away...

I don't see much left. There are some 2 billion people on this ball and I don't see that there will be much for them to do to earn a living. I hope I'm wrong and some new and inventive "use" for human skills will pop up but I sure can't see what it will be...

I agree with everything except your population number.

It's closing in on 8 billion.

The Good Dr. is just wrong on this, as he is on "freedom being popular", more's the pity of course.

Anti Federalist
06-04-2017, 11:16 PM
Once again, Ron Paul nails it!

I know I'm pretty much a lone voice here on this topic, but human wants are unlimited. Always have been, always will be. No amount of AI or technology will ever be able to stop that. And since wants are unlimited, there will always be a way for people to provide value to other people. We just don't know what that means, yet. Which is why it's hard to envision. It's much easier (and mentally, lazier) to look at our current wants being met with future technology.

It's not a question of fulfilling wants.

One only needs to look around at some of the depravity in the daily freak show to know that human desires are fathomless.

I have no question that human needs and wants will be fulfilled in new and unknown ways.

The price that will be paid will be in freedom and risk and accomplishment.

They go hand in hand, and they will have no place in the clean, well ordered, well regulated system of the future, where every want is fulfilled, as long as it is compliant and safe.

timosman
06-04-2017, 11:53 PM
It's not a question of fulfilling wants.

One only needs to look around at some of the depravity in the daily freak show to know that human desires are fathomless.

I have no question that human needs and wants will be fulfilled in new and unknown ways.

The price that will be paid will be in freedom and risk and accomplishment.

They go hand in hand, and they will have no place in the clean, well ordered, well regulated system of the future, where every want is fulfilled, as long as it is compliant and safe.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jae38H1_j-E

CaptUSA
06-05-2017, 06:32 AM
It's not a question of fulfilling wants.

One only needs to look around at some of the depravity in the daily freak show to know that human desires are fathomless.

I have no question that human needs and wants will be fulfilled in new and unknown ways.

The price that will be paid will be in freedom and risk and accomplishment.

They go hand in hand, and they will have no place in the clean, well ordered, well regulated system of the future, where every want is fulfilled, as long as it is compliant and safe.

Ok, but that is a completely different point than, "the machines are taking our jerbs!" <- this is what the doctor was accurately refuting. And that sentiment has been widely professed in these forums as well.

To your more salient point, there are most definitely new risks introduced with technology! Without a question. Government is light years ahead of the market when it comes to using technology for their purposes. But there are also new opportunities for liberty. The internet connects billions of people and the flow of information has never been what it is now. But those connections can be monitored. They can also be wasted playing silly little games. But would you throw out the whole coin because one side of it is bad?

Personally, I'd like to see the liberty movement engage technology for the purposes of liberty instead of the knee-jerk reaction to shun it because of the down-side. Our oppressors have no such aversion. And the market is demonstrating an appetite for new and better tech. Fighting technology (or fearing it) puts us on the wrong side of the future. We don't fear guns; and yet our government constantly uses them to invade our liberty...

ChristianAnarchist
06-05-2017, 07:29 AM
Ok, but that is a completely different point than, "the machines are taking our jerbs!" <- this is what the doctor was accurately refuting. And that sentiment has been widely professed in these forums as well.

To your more salient point, there are most definitely new risks introduced with technology! Without a question. Government is light years ahead of the market when it comes to using technology for their purposes. But there are also new opportunities for liberty. The internet connects billions of people and the flow of information has never been what it is now. But those connections can be monitored. They can also be wasted playing silly little games. But would you throw out the whole coin because one side of it is bad?

Personally, I'd like to see the liberty movement engage technology for the purposes of liberty instead of the knee-jerk reaction to shun it because of the down-side. Our oppressors have no such aversion. And the market is demonstrating an appetite for new and better tech. Fighting technology (or fearing it) puts us on the wrong side of the future. We don't fear guns; and yet our government constantly uses them to invade our liberty...

Ok, what jobs will there be?? I've already pointed out how manufacturing, service and even jobs that require a high degree of education such as Doctors will be taken over by the machines. What exactly is left for man to do?? Are we all going to be artists? Even art is being shown to be something AI can do...

CaptUSA
06-05-2017, 07:51 AM
Ok, what jobs will there be?? I've already pointed out how manufacturing, service and even jobs that require a high degree of education such as Doctors will be taken over by the machines. What exactly is left for man to do?? Are we all going to be artists? Even art is being shown to be something AI can do...

You see that is the problem... You can't know what the future wants will be. If you could, you'd be a billionaire. Who could have predicted only 30 years ago, that there'd be a whole industry around something called "apps"?

My guess is that if this nightmare scenario (for you) were to come to fruition and all of today's jobs were gone, I'd expect that there'd be a high demand for real-life "experiences", hand-made craftsmanship, and personal human pampery. "Real" products and services would become status symbols and people would jump to provide them.

trey4sports
06-05-2017, 08:07 AM
Love the good Doctor and of course he's mostly right in this video but I have to disagree on the overall question of jobs and robots. I do believe that all jobs are in danger of going away due to robots. I do agree with him, of course, on there should be ZERO goonerment involvement in this issue. The market will provide the best solution but of course the goonerment will NOT leave this issue alone and you can count on whatever they do being wrong.

Why do I think jobs will go away and there will be insufficient "new" jobs to replace them?

We have never seen this level of advancement in the history of man. The advances are coming faster than we can adjust to them. Soon there is NO job that robots won't be able to perform (if the current trend is to continue). For instance, we are in medicine. My wife is a doctor. Even HER job will be gone in the not too distant future. AI is making inroads in treating disease and it won't be too long when you will be able to have your vitals checked by a machine that will input the results into the data base along with your input as to symptoms and concerns and the AI will spit out your treatment and send you away with your prescriptions. What will a doctor be needed for? The "personal touch"?? Most every manufacturing job will go away, most every service job will go away, academic jobs will go away...

I don't see much left. There are some 2 billion people on this ball and I don't see that there will be much for them to do to earn a living. I hope I'm wrong and some new and inventive "use" for human skills will pop up but I sure can't see what it will be...


that is most likely the case, however, what you're missing is the radically cheaper cost of living associated with the AI advancement. I bring it back to the whole concept of economic efficiency. When refrigerators came to the marketplace everyone who was in the "ice box" industry was out of a job, but of course the cost of refrigerating your food went way down and the dislocated workers moved to a new industry. I'm guessing that most of the new workforce will probably be employed in some engineering based economy.

ChristianAnarchist
06-05-2017, 08:11 AM
You see that is the problem... You can't know what the future wants will be. If you could, you'd be a billionaire. Who could have predicted only 30 years ago, that there'd be a whole industry around something called "apps"?

My guess is that if this nightmare scenario (for you) were to come to fruition and all of today's jobs were gone, I'd expect that there'd be a high demand for real-life "experiences", hand-made craftsmanship, and personal human pampery. "Real" products and services would become status symbols and people would jump to provide them.


Let's hope you are right. I see a different outcome though. One where people won't need "personal" experiences because they will simply be able to "plug-in" their brain to a simulated world where they can experience every fantasy they can imagine without any of the danger of real life. A holodeck like environment that only uses a few watts of electricity to give you any experiences you imagine. Look at gamers today. They spend most of their free hours in front of a screen that gives them a tiny window into a simulated experience and they can't resist even this limited virtual world. In the very near future the simulation will be able to exactly mimic real world. Why pay for "personal" human interaction when you can have simulated experiences that are indistinguishable from real world but completely programmable? Tired of being rejected by the beautiful women?? You can have 10 at a time in your virtual world...

ChristianAnarchist
06-05-2017, 08:13 AM
that is most likely the case, however, what you're missing is the radically cheaper cost of living associated with the AI advancement. I bring it back to the whole concept of economic efficiency. When refrigerators came to the marketplace everyone who was in the "ice box" industry was out of a job, but of course the cost of refrigerating your food went way down and the dislocated workers moved to a new industry. I'm guessing that most of the new workforce will probably be employed in some engineering based economy.


Do you think that AI cannot be adapted to engineering?

CaptUSA
06-05-2017, 09:23 AM
Let's hope you are right. I see a different outcome though. One where people won't need "personal" experiences because they will simply be able to "plug-in" their brain to a simulated world where they can experience every fantasy they can imagine without any of the danger of real life. A holodeck like environment that only uses a few watts of electricity to give you any experiences you imagine. Look at gamers today. They spend most of their free hours in front of a screen that gives them a tiny window into a simulated experience and they can't resist even this limited virtual world. In the very near future the simulation will be able to exactly mimic real world. Why pay for "personal" human interaction when you can have simulated experiences that are indistinguishable from real world but completely programmable? Tired of being rejected by the beautiful women?? You can have 10 at a time in your virtual world...

Sounds like a booming industry in rehabilitation services, then, eh? You don't think humans can "plug in" like that without adverse repercussions, do you?

ChristianAnarchist
06-05-2017, 09:27 AM
Sounds like a booming industry in rehabilitation services, then, eh? You don't think humans can "plug in" like that without adverse repercussions, do you?

Not sure how many people would want to be "rehabilitated" from paradise. Anyway, why couldn't AI provide such service? If AI can provide medical service it should also be able to handle rehabilitation...

CaptUSA
06-05-2017, 10:54 AM
Not sure how many people would want to be "rehabilitated" from paradise. Anyway, why couldn't AI provide such service? If AI can provide medical service it should also be able to handle rehabilitation...

I'm just sayin' this dystopia that you fear is never going to happen. People will always find a way to meet the wants of other people.

AF's dystopia is far more likely, but even then, there are opportunities.

timosman
06-05-2017, 11:26 AM
You see that is the problem... You can't know what the future wants will be. If you could, you'd be a billionaire. Who could have predicted only 30 years ago, that there'd be a whole industry around something called "apps"?

Yeah and not making any profits to boot. There are plans however for 2050.:cool:

Anti Federalist
06-05-2017, 08:22 PM
But would you throw out the whole coin because one side of it is bad?

Yes.

I can remember a world where you were not under 24/7 surveillance.

My children and future generations cannot, and never will (barring a massive solar flare that crisps every microchip on planet earth), so to them, there no "downside" it just is, like explaining wet to a fish.

But if I had the means?

Hell yes, I'd turn the clock back in an instant.

Anti Federalist
06-05-2017, 08:36 PM
My guess is that if this nightmare scenario (for you) were to come to fruition and all of today's jobs were gone, I'd expect that there'd be a high demand for real-life "experiences", hand-made craftsmanship, and personal human pampery. "Real" products and services would become status symbols and people would jump to provide them.

So, assuming CA's "Total Recall" world is not how this turns out, what you are describing is a global DisneyWorld, where actors serve up an ersatz "real" for a pampered class enjoying true Roman otium.

Very safe, very secure, and the ability to fill any want or need no doubt.

And that may very well end the human race.

A human being, a man especially, has his worth defined by what he can do, what he can accomplish, what hardships he can overcome, what risks he can take.

This need, and the sanitized and stagnating world we live in, combined together, is why you see people falling off Mt. Everest, climbing El Capitan without lines, or skydiving without parachutes in search of that challenge, that drive to overcome.

I'm frankly convinced that, barring a cataclysmic event that shatters society globally and requires rebuilding for a 1000 years, or getting up off this rock, we will be doomed by every want being fulfilled, every desire being met, leading to humanity wide torpor and apathy that will destroy us.

The coming world will be hell, to the few people who think like us. Or rather, used to think like us. Those that do in the future will be weeded out.

The rest will love Big Brother.

Anti Federalist
06-06-2017, 12:10 PM
CaptUSA

Then again, maybe you're right...

Why Old-Timey Jobs Are Hot Again

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-old-timey-jobs-are-hot-again-1496754001

By Lauren Weber

June 6, 2017 9:00 a.m. ET

Gentrification isn’t just taking place in working-class neighborhoods. It’s happening to jobs, too.

Walk around parts of Brooklyn, Portland or Pittsburgh, and you’ll find stylish cocktail bars, barbers and the occasional butcher shop staffed by young, college-educated employees. For an affluent segment of today’s urban economy, these jobs have been revalued from low-status semi-manual labor to glamorous occupations, says sociologist Richard Ocejo.

In his new book “Masters of Craft: Old Jobs in the New Urban Economy,” Mr. Ocejo examines the forces driving a resurgence of occupations such as butcher and bartender among young middle-class urbanites. A similar dynamic is at work with a handful of other jobs, including craft brewer, bookbinder, furniture maker and fishmonger.

The Labor Department projects that between 2014 and 2024 the number of bartenders and barbers in the U.S. will grow 10%, while butchers will see a 5% increase, compared with a 7% job growth for all occupations over the same period. Median pay for these jobs was less than $30,000 a year in 2016.

Millennials are drawn to these occupations, in part, as a reaction to “the ephemerality of the digital age,” says Mr. Ocejo, a sociology professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice and the City University of New York Graduate Center.

Distinct from many of today’s most vaunted jobs in fields like information technology and financial services, these trades “are based in using your hands, with actual tools and materials, to provide a tangible concrete product,” he says.

To attract young people with college degrees and other options in the labor market, jobs usually have an element of performance to them, Mr. Ocejo says. In most of the careers he studied for “Masters of Craft,” workers interact closely with customers, often in a public setting where their skill and knowledge can be admired. That’s why some manual positions like electrician and plumber are unlikely to experience the same “revalorization,” he says.

Unlike real-estate gentrification, where the arrival of more affluent people displaces lower-income residents in a neighborhood, hipsters generally aren’t displacing workers at more conventional businesses in the same industry, Mr. Ocejo says.

A trendy whole-animal butcher isn’t pushing out the local butcher shop, he says, since it likely “closed a long time ago when the Italians moved out.” And it isn’t hurting the halal butchers in the neighborhood either, since those shops serve a different clientele.

“They’ve created a niche that didn’t exist before, and they’re operating along parallel but very, very separate paths” with pre-existing businesses, Mr. Ocejo says.

But with aesthetics playing such a key role in the craft-business ideal—from bartenders with suspenders and handlebar mustaches to tattooed butchers carving an unusual cut of meat—Mr. Ocejo says the jobs tend to attract people from similar cultural backgrounds, creating a barrier for others.

“It’s very difficult if you are from a working-class background or a minority to get one of these jobs, which would give you higher wages, networking opportunities and more interesting work,” he says. “That’s a challenge for these companies: to become more inclusive and not just hire people who look like them or are part of their social network.”

(Oh for fuck's sake...always and of course...the whining. I reckon that is part of their appeal, although coming right out and saying that will get you crucified - AF)

timosman
06-06-2017, 12:25 PM
“It’s very difficult if you are from a working-class background or a minority to get one of these jobs, which would give you higher wages, networking opportunities and more interesting work,” he says. “That’s a challenge for these companies: to become more inclusive and not just hire people who look like them or are part of their social network.”

(Oh for fuck's sake...always and of course...the whining. I reckon that is part of their appeal, although coming right out and saying that will get you crucified - AF)


Makes you wonder WTF happened to the shareholder value which was always taunted as the overriding principle in the company guidance and used to beat the employees into submission.:confused: