There will be no "Blue Wave"

[helmuth_hubener]

The Democrats are dead for a while. The middle of the country is gone to them and not coming back; all they have is their outposts on the coasts and the Hispanic encroachment up through NM, AZ, and CO.



There will be no "blue wave"

A rare sane and sober Democrat considers his party's prospects for the future:


Gianforte’s decisive victory over Democrat Rob Quist on Thursday has provoked a fresh round of soul-searching from the same people who made too damn much of the Montana election in the first place. We have been told that Democrats must field stronger candidates and commit more resources, that Bernie Sanders does not possess some magic elixir that attracts disgruntled white people and that Donald Trump remains popular in places where people really like him. If that’s not quite enough Captain Obvious, Washington Post columnist Greg Hohmann devoted an impressive amount of research and reporting to the Montana aftermath before arriving at the diagnosis that there is “a growing tribalism that contributes to the polarization of our political system.” You don’t say!

Let me be clear that I’m indicting myself here as well: I edit political coverage at Salon, and I followed the Montana news closely. I knew perfectly well how it was likely to turn out, but one can always be wrong about that (as we discovered last November), and I shared some dim sense that it might be cathartic to experience an insignificant proxy victory in a state I have never even visited. But when I ask myself why I felt that way, even a little, the answers are not edifying.

For many people in, let’s say, the left-center quadrant of the American political spectrum — especially those who are not all that eager to confront the fractured and tormented state of the current Democratic Party — Montana and Georgia and 2018 seem(ed) to represent the opening chapters of a comeback narrative, the beginning of a happy ending. If what happened in 2016 was a nonsensical aberration, then maybe there’s a fix right around the corner, and normal, institutional politics can provide it.

First you chip away at Republican triumphalism, and the House majority, with a couple of special-election victories. Then it’s about organizing, recruiting the right candidates for the right seats, registering voters and ringing doorbells, right? Democrats picked up 31 seats in the George W. Bush midterms of 2006 — and will need 24 or so this time — so, hey, it could happen. For that matter, Republicans gained an astounding 63 seats in the Tea Party election of 2010, and many observers have speculated that Trump-revulsion might create that kind of cohesion on the left. So we sweep away Paul Ryan and his sneering goons, give Nancy Pelosi back her speaker’s gavel after eight long years, introduce the articles of impeachment and begin to set America back on the upward-trending path of political normalcy and niceness.

I suspect it’s pointless to list all the things that are wrong with that scenario, because either you agree with me that it’s a delusional fantasy built on seven different varieties of magical thinking or you don’t, and in the latter case I am not likely to convince you.

My position is that Donald Trump is a symptom of the fundamental brokenness of American politics, not the cause. Electing a Democratic House majority (which is 95 percent unlikely to happen) and impeaching Trump (which is 100 percent not going to happen) might feel good in the moment, but wouldn’t actually fix what is broken. Considered as a whole, the “blue wave” fantasy of November 2018 is a more elaborate and somewhat more realistic version of the “Hamilton elector” fantasy of December 2016: Something will happen soon to make this all go away.

The situation is actually worse for Democratic Party than most Democrats realize. The Asian-Hispanic alliance is already beginning to revolt against the Jewish-White-Black dominance of the Democrats, or as they will soon enough be known, the Not-American Party. And the Republican Party cannot easily return to its establishment cuckery, because the Alt-Right's articulation of the dyscivilizational activities of the Not-Americans is continually pushing the Overton Window towards ethno-nationalism.

This is why I have repeatedly pointed out that the Alt-Right is inevitable. All of the trends, regional, national, and international, continue to point in that direction.

-- http://voxday.blogspot.com/2017/05/there-will-be-no-blue-wave.html


I post mainly because I find this sentence very funny and enlightening:

"introduce the articles of impeachment and begin to set America back on the upward-trending path of political normalcy and niceness."

A window into the soul of the third-worldists, yes? Oh, for niceness. My kingdom for some "niceness."

[specsaregood]

When you go out of your way to discriminate and/or demonize over 30% of the voting population, it is not surprising that you have problems winning elections.

[William Tell]

There will be a blue wave. There is always backlash towards a president and party who gain power under the anti establishment banner and then become the establishment. The Dems are the only ones who can benefit this time.

Drain the swamp is not a reelection slogan.

[specsaregood]

There will be a blue wave. There is always backlash towards a president and party who gain power under the anti establishment banner and then become the establishment. The Dems are the only ones who can benefit this time.

Maybe, but it still will only happen if the people think the alternative is better than what is in power, currently the alternative (democrats) seem to be doubling down on the things that caused them to lose the last election. that tactic won't work.

[William Tell]

Maybe, but it still will only happen if the people think the alternative is better than what is in power, currently the alternative (democrats) seem to be doubling down on the things that caused them to lose the last election. that tactic won't work.
Yes and no. The coalition that manages to make up 50%+1 at the polls on election day in any given district wins. The dems certainly have a suicidal attitude the way they treat middle America but they still are the only ones that can benefit from the anger against the Republican congress. The only hope for the GOP is the stupidity and arrogance of the Dems is so huge that they manage to get the same Trump coalition out at the polls next time with a little extra to make up for the energized Berniecrats who are showing up at townhalls right now.

Everybody hates congress now and everybody will hate the next congress too either way. My guess is the Dems continue their insane liberal attitude of hate towards the average American and yet manage to win big due to the huge unpopularity of Paul Ryan. The Democrats will then go insane with joy and claim that America is now liberal and will lose again next election. Andddddddddd the pendulum swings again and again and again.

But we'll see. Hopefully some liberty guys manage to primary the Rino's out. that's the only possible good outcome but that never seems to happen.

[William Tell]

I mean Darrell Issa got 50.3% of the vote last time and now he's hiding from voters on his roof. How can the GOP possibly hold seats like that? And I will ask the same about the Dems in 4 years when they are hiding on their roofs. People are pissed and will continue to be.

[dean.engelhardt]

The cycle will continue. People will get tired of getting screwed over by the GOP eventually. Then it will be the Democrat's turn to screw people over.

[juleswin]

The cycle will continue. People will get tired of getting screwed over by the GOP eventually. Then it will be the Democrat's turn to screw people over.


There will be a blue wave. There is always backlash towards a president and party who gain power under the anti establishment banner and then become the establishment. The Dems are the only ones who can benefit this time.

Drain the swamp is not a reelection slogan.

As sure I am that the sun will rise tomorrow morning, I am equally as sure that the blue wave will return. The democrats are the ying to republicans yang, they feed from the energies of each other and the pendulum will return back after the republicans reach their peak and the people realize that things aren't getting better.

I remember when George Bush's admin ended and Obama won the white house, house and senate and people were saying that it signaled the end of the republican party. Well, it turns out that it wasn't true, the republicans are alive and well and the dems are in the toilet. Give it some time and watch how the cycles continues

[helmuth_hubener]

I remember when George Bush's admin ended and Obama won the white house, house and senate

Ahh, but do you remember the Peloponnesian War? The Greek Dark Age? The Fall of the Roman Empire?

A little more recently, do you remember when Democrats completely dominated and controlled Congress for 60 years?

Let us not be slaves to the present. There are bigger cycles at work than one can notice listening to the news. Epigenetic factor "G" is on the upswing and a rightward shift is well underway.

Whether you believe in / understand biological explanations aside, the hard numbers are quite clear. The map is clear.

https://www.menofthewest.net/wp-content/uploads/xpolls-1000x600.jpg.pagespeed.ic.EqHbSRHElG.jpg

"We are told that demographic realities facing America mean the Right will soon find it impossible to compete with the Left on the national stage. We are told it is decided. We are told it is inevitable.

"Today I want to explain how, with just a few easy changes, we can ensure that the Left loses every presidential election for the next 50 years...."

-- https://www.menofthewest.net/the-hard-right-plan-for-victory/

[helmuth_hubener]

The only hope for the GOP is the stupidity and arrogance of the Dems is so huge that they manage to get the same Trump coalition out at the polls next time with a little extra to make up for the energized Berniecrats who are showing up at townhalls right now.

Well, here's another option: they could do something good.

Just a little bit of good would go a long way!

Plus, incumbents always have the advantage. It's really hard to throw out incumbents. There is no left-wing Tea Party right now. I'm sure the news wants us to think there is (I don't watch it, but a safe guess). It's all astro-turf. There is no big back-lash from white voters swinging back liberal again. Nope. Whites are becoming more and more conservative, more and more alienated from the third-worldists. They don't want their country to become third-world, the selfish jerks! Imagine that. There will be no huge turn-over.

No, we're in for a long period of GOP dominance. Let's hope they manage to do some good and implement some of their constituents' agenda!

[H. E. Panqui]

...i sense massive voter fraud undertaken by the stinking republicans...i know what you hear on republican talk radio...but that's all talk...

...either way, only a piddling quibbler would gass whether a stinking republican puppet or a stinking democrat puppet is on $tage...

[William Tell]

https://www.menofthewest.net/wp-content/uploads/xpolls-1000x600.jpg.pagespeed.ic.EqHbSRHElG.jpg


Some of the counties on that map it shows as blue I know for a fact are solidly red.

[Zippyjuan]

There will be a blue wave. There is always backlash towards a president and party who gain power under the anti establishment banner and then become the establishment. The Dems are the only ones who can benefit this time.

Drain the swamp is not a reelection slogan.

The political pendulum always moves back and forth. Republicans were written off just a few years ago themselves. Doubt it will happen as soon as 2018 elections (Dems need to win 28 of 31 seats up for grabs in the Senate for example since they already have most of the ones up for election) but eventually people get tired of the party in charge and seek more change again.

[r3volution 3.0]

Maybe, but it still will only happen if the people think the alternative is better than what is in power, currently the alternative (democrats) seem to be doubling down on the things that caused them to lose the last election. that tactic won't work.

They always think that.


Everybody hates congress now and everybody will hate the next congress too either way. My guess is the Dems continue their insane liberal attitude of hate towards the average American and yet manage to win big due to the huge unpopularity of Paul Ryan. The Democrats will then go insane with joy and claim that America is now liberal and will lose again next election. Andddddddddd the pendulum swings again and again and again.

Yup

...not that it makes any difference, so long as the GOP remains the party of Trump/Romney/McCain/Bush.

[TheCount]

The party in power generally loses seats during the midterms. The question is not whether it will happen, but will Democrats gain enough seats to acquire a majority or not.

[FSP-Rebel]

The party in power generally loses seats during the midterms. The question is not whether it will happen, but will Democrats gain enough seats to acquire a majority or not.
....hoping for massive blue wave.

[specsaregood]

They always think that.
historically perhaps, but with the internet and constant stream of news I get the distinct impression that the left wing wackos might sufficiently ruin the reputation for the democrat party that it doesn't happen again. I mean they have seriously gone off the deepend and I suspect the average person wont' want to risk that party getting power. but I'm not kreskin so wtf do I know.

[enhanced_deficit]

Tend to agree, there will no "blue wave" per se. Most of damage done by disgraced dronegangsta will not be reversed so quickly and some of it will be lasting for years/decades to come.


DNC deputy chairman: Obama Is Responsible for Democrats Collapsing, Legacy in ‘Jeopardy’ (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?509924-DNC-deputy-chairman-Obama-Is-Responsible-for-Democrats-Collapsing-Legacy-in-%E2%80%98Jeopardy%E2%80%99&)

[CPUd]

Next wave will have no color

[TheCount]

....hoping for massive blue wave.Are you saying that you are or I am? I can't tell.

Normally I would hope for mixed majorities in the legislature, or for the control of the legislature to be in opposition to the President. Trump, though, would likely be able to get many of his policies through a Democratic Congress. In terms of health care, for example, I think that he is more interested in putting his stamp on the matter and changing things than he is interested in the actual nature of the changes. I think that he would sign a Democratic health care plan just as readily as a Republican plan. Other policies of his are not particularly conservative and could find Democratic support as well.

Therefore, I don't think that the state of things will be much improved by the midterms, no matter the results. Perhaps a near-tie in Congress would best incapacitate the legislature. I'm not sure.

[r3volution 3.0]

historically perhaps, but with the internet and constant stream of news I get the distinct impression that the left wing wackos might sufficiently ruin the reputation for the democrat party that it doesn't happen again. I mean they have seriously gone off the deepend and I suspect the average person wont' want to risk that party getting power. but I'm not kreskin so wtf do I know.

Seems to me that each party is anteing up to the other's increasing insanity.

We'll see, but my guess would be a Democrat after Trump, then a GOPer after that Democrat, and so on in the usual way.

[helmuth_hubener]

The party in power generally loses seats during the midterms. The question is not whether it will happen, but will Democrats gain enough seats to acquire a majority or not.

Nope, GOP will gain even more.

Sorry!

[r3volution 3.0]

If the GOP manages to gain house seats (doubtful IMO), the likely result will be that the Freedom Caucus loses leverage.

I'd prefer they keep a thin margin or even lose a couple seats.

It's difficult to imagine a scenario in which GOP gains next year would be good for liberty.

[Madison320]

I think we're headed for a massive crash, much worse than 2008, simply based on the amount of stimulus and debt we've accumulated since then. If it happens on Trump's watch, which it probably will, I think we'll have a huge democratic majority in 2020.

[specsaregood]

I think we're headed for a massive crash, much worse than 2008, simply based on the amount of stimulus and debt we've accumulated since then. If it happens on Trump's watch, which it probably will, I think we'll have a huge democratic majority in 2020.

When do the majority of boomers stop contributing and start drawing from their 401ks? That's when it will really crash.

[Zippyjuan]

I think we're headed for a massive crash, much worse than 2008, simply based on the amount of stimulus and debt we've accumulated since then. If it happens on Trump's watch, which it probably will, I think we'll have a huge democratic majority in 2020.

Been hearing that since 2009.

[PierzStyx]

The Democrats are dead for a while. The middle of the country is gone to them and not coming back; all they have is their outposts on the coasts and the Hispanic encroachment up through NM, AZ, and CO.

You are aware that those "outposts on the coasts" carry nearly half the population of the entire country, right?

Trump didn't win some overwhelming victory. He managed to win a handful of states the Democrats typically do, most likely because they got to arrogant in their automatic victory in those states. That will not be the case next election cycle.

American politics do not typically happen in waves. Trump was not carried to the presidency on a red wave and when the Dems win the White House the next time they do it will not be on a blue wave. American politics are more like chess than anything else.

All these pronouncements of the Dems being dead are like the same pronouncements the Dems made about Republicans after they won Congress and then Obama was elected. It is short sighted and erroneous.

[Zippyjuan]

When do the majority of boomers stop contributing and start drawing from their 401ks? That's when it will really crash.

People tend to draw down their retirement savings slowly over time- not all at once. "Boomers" are generally considered those born between 1946 and 1964. Those born in 1952 are hitting 65 this year.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/66/US_Birth_Rates.svg/1016px-US_Birth_Rates.svg.png

[Lamp]

Some of the counties on that map it shows as blue I know for a fact are solidly red.


The map of Virgina is all wrong

[helmuth_hubener]

OK, well somebody find me a better map -- I don't know! :D

[AuH20]

John Kennedy would be a steadfast Republican in 2017. That's how far the Democratic Party has moved to Crazytown. The Republicans don't really have to do much.

[Swordsmyth]

OK, well somebody find me a better map -- I don't know! :D

http://thoughtfulreading.com/files/2016/11/us-2016-presidential-election-map-full-size.png

http://thoughtfulreading.com/files/2016/11/us-2016-presidential-election-map-full-size.png

[AuH20]

The democrats control nearly every institution, all of academia, Hollywood and the 4th Estate, yet they still got whitewashed this past election cycle. That tells you how odious their product is.

[Swordsmyth]

OK, well somebody find me a better map -- I don't know! :D

http://thoughtfulreading.com/politics/live-map-united-states-2016-presidential-election-voters-party-by-state-county-analysis-of-voters-illegal-immigration-correlation-republican-democrat-red-blue-voting-map/


http://thoughtfulreading.com/files/2016/11/us-2016-presidential-election-map-3-sm-with-labels-immigration-correlation-1.png

[CPUd]

http://i.imgur.com/bBV68Ng.jpg

[ProBlue33]

There is only one democrat that has a shot of beating Trump in 2020 and that is Tulsi Gabbard.
But the Democrats are so stupid they will nuke her in the primaries and lose again.

[merkelstan]

There is only one democrat that has a shot of beating Trump in 2020 and that is Tulsi Gabbard.
But the Democrats are so stupid they will nuke her in the primaries and lose again.

Does it matter who becomes president?

[oyarde]

When do the majority of boomers stop contributing and start drawing from their 401ks? That's when it will really crash.

By 2022 all remaining boomers will be old enough to retire and take out all 401k monies with no tax penalty ( 58 ) . By 7 years later they will all be on medicare ( 65)and no longer need employment for health ins. unless they were veterans where they could have already enrolled in VA and not needed employer ins prior to that . By 2 to 4 years after 2022 all remaining boomers will be old enough to draw social security . Age 60 if widowed they may draw a percentage of deceased spouse for two years until 62 and then draw own and govt keeps the rest .

[H. E. Panqui]

You are aware that those "outposts on the coasts" carry nearly half the population of the entire country, right?

...as one political anthropologist wag put it, 'democrats tend to dominate in areas where human poop is the most abundant poop...republicans dominate in areas where cow, pig, sheep, chicken, etc., poop is the most abundant poop...

[H. E. Panqui]

OK, well somebody find me a better map -- I don't know! :D

:cool:

...yes, let's all keep in mind that helmuth doesn't consume republicrat media like most/all forum politicos...helmuth killed the television a long long time ago...hence the old map.. ;)

[helmuth_hubener]

Helmuth killed the television a long long time ago...hence the old map. "Killed" is such a violent word. But no, we simply do not have it in my home.

And yes, I am radically, consciously, intentionally "out of date," "out of step," and "out of tune with the times."

[Madison320]

Been hearing that since 2009.

Those were the good old days. Back when the national debt was only 10 trillion.

[Zippyjuan]

Those were the good old days. Back when the national debt was only 10 trillion.

Talk to your congressmen about that.

[Swordsmyth]

Five Reasons Why America Is About To Become A Very Conservative Country
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-02/five-reasons-why-america-about-become-very-conservative-country

[parocks]

Some of the counties on that map it shows as blue I know for a fact are solidly red.

Yeah, what's that map supposed to be?

Trump won CD2 in Maine, took an electoral vote because of it. CD2 has a GOP US Rep. The map has Maine as solid blue.

[parocks]

Seems to me that each party is anteing up to the other's increasing insanity.

We'll see, but my guess would be a Democrat after Trump, then a GOPer after that Democrat, and so on in the usual way.

"the usual way" is usually right.

[RestorationOfLiberty]

I mean Darrell Issa got 50.3% of the vote last time and now he's hiding from voters on his roof. How can the GOP possibly hold seats like that? And I will ask the same about the Dems in 4 years when they are hiding on their roofs. People are pissed and will continue to be.

Easy, stop importing welfare voters.
Purge voter rolls
Voter ID

[timosman]

992816952077795328

[timosman]

1028763791553712128

[r3volution 3.0]

Based on current polls, and recent special election results, the Dems will take many House seats, probably enough to take the majority.

The Senate, on the other hand, will almost certainly remain GOP, though they might lose 1 net seat.

Personally, I hope the GOP comes down to a majority of 1 in both houses, giving Rand and Massie much more leverage.

[nikcers]

Based on current polls, and recent special election results, the Dems will take many House seats, probably enough to take the majority.

The Senate, on the other hand, will almost certainly remain GOP, though they might lose 1 net seat.

Personally, I hope the GOP comes down to a majority of 1 in both houses, giving Rand and Massie much more leverage.

Yeah- it is so they have an excuse why they can't get rid of Obamacare. This is going to be really annoying when no one notices.

[r3volution 3.0]

Yeah it so they have an excuse why they can't get rid of Obamacare. This is going to be really annoying when no one notices.

They already didn't get rid of Obamacare, when they could have, and didn't even need an excuse.

The GOP voter isn't really opposed to such programs: if the GOP does it.

[nikcers]

They already didn't get rid of Obamacare, when they could have, and didn't even need an excuse.

The GOP voter isn't really opposed to such programs: if the GOP does it.

They tried to blame it all on Rand Paul so I think its going to be a major 2020 theme.

[r3volution 3.0]

They tried to blame it all on Rand Paul so I think its going to be a major 2020 theme.

True, that was the play at the time, when Trump/GOP-sans-Rand were trying to repackage O'care without really changing anything, and Rand got in the way, but do people still think that? What I hear GOPers saying these days, to the extent they talk about economic issue at all, is that the Dems are to blame (somehow, doesn't matter).

[Swordsmyth]

Based on current polls, and recent special election results, the Dems will take many House seats, probably enough to take the majority.
Not really.


The Senate, on the other hand, will almost certainly remain GOP, though they might lose 1 net seat.
They will gain seats, maybe even enough for a 60+ seat majority.


Personally, I hope the GOP comes down to a majority of 1 in both houses, giving Rand and Massie much more leverage.
The RINOs would sell out to the Dems on every issue under those circumstances and Rand, Lee, Massie, Amash etc. would lose almost all influence.

[r3volution 3.0]

Not really.


They will gain seats, maybe even enough for a 60+ seat majority.

LOL, you've really turned into a dutiful party member, haven't you?

No, there is no chance whatsoever that the GOP gets to 60+.

As for the House, the Dems will take net seats, guaranteed - reasonable people can disagree as to how many.

Personally, I suspect they'll be right on the line as to the majority: either a majority of a few, or a minority of a few.


The RINOs would sell out to the Dems on every issue under those circumstances and Rand, Lee, Massie, Amash etc. would lose almost all influence.

It would be preferable to force GOPers to openly join their cross-aisle twins than to allow them to continue pretending to be something different.