CNN/ Opinion Research poll shows Paul at 6% nationwide

[ReallyNow]

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/10/cnn.poll/index.html

Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, is backed by 24 percent of Republican voters nationally while Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, is at 22 percent.

The two-point difference is well within the survey's sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is at 16 percent in the new poll, followed by Sen. John McCain of Arizona at 12 percent, Former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee at 10 percent, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 6 percent, Rep. Duncan Hunter of California at 2 percent and Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado at 1 percent.

[ratsbew]

Well 24 minus 5 is 19 and 6 plus 5 is 11 so that means that Giuliani could only be 8% ahead of Paul.

[FreedomLover]

Reaffirms RP's upward trend nationally

Should be hitting 10% around the 16th

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

By the time of the Iowa caucus, RP's numbers will double to 14-16%.
He will be all over the media during the holidays as a result of Dec 16th and will be a household name by then.

[Bigboyen]

Also interesting that 10% of democrats pick Paul as the best republican to be the next president. Strong number since I think Paul has even lower name recognition with Democrats.

[Nash]

Pat Buchanan was 6% nationally and 14% in New Hampshire the day before he won the state in 1996.

Following his primary win he shot up nationally to around 20%.

So based on these numbers:

1) Ron Paul will win New Hampshire if he can gain another 5% there before primary day.
2) Ron Paul will be polling within the margin of error for the GOP lead if he wins that state.

[noztnac]

Huckabee's rise shows that great leaps are possible.

[PRIEST]

Pat Buchanan was 6% nationally and 14% in New Hampshire the day before he won the state in 1996.

How was the mainstream coverage of Buchanan? Did they say "you cannot win"?

[curtisag]

How was the mainstream coverage of Buchanan? Did they say "you cannot win"?

They ignored him at first. Then, I think they smeared the crap out of him after he won. They called him an isolationist, a racist, etc, and his campaign died quickly. Maybe someone else remembers better than I, but that's what I recall.

[skinzterpswizfan]

This isn't an attempt to discredit the Iowa and New Hampshire polls, but I don't understand how he can be at 6% nationwide and only 8-9% in these two primary states where ads are being pumped there and tons of attention is being spent by the grassroots.

[2young2vote]

I don't trust any of these polls. And I believe he is higher than that.

[Nash]

They ignored him at first. Then, I think they smeared the crap out of him after he won. They called him an isolationist, a racist, etc, and his campaign died quickly. Maybe someone else remembers better than I, but that's what I recall.

I don't live in New Hampshire but I guess his victory came out of nowhere. Nationally he was viewed as the gadfly who only served to push Bob Dole to the right and keep him honest. Dole was the "front-runner" and the media reminded everyone of that. His nomination was basically inevitable according to the media. When Buchanan won NH the GOP completely freaked out. Every single establishment guy in the party came out of the woodwork to blast Buchanan as an extremist and endorse Dole. He was swift-boated in a matter of weeks.

When Ron Paul wins New Hampshire we're gonna be sadly longing for the days that the media ignored us. We seen only a fraction of the negative press he's gonna get after he wins. It is going to get VERY UGLY. We must be vigilant because it's gonna get a lot worse before it gets better.

[RevolutionSD]

Pat Buchanan was 6% nationally and 14% in New Hampshire the day before he won the state in 1996.

Following his primary win he shot up nationally to around 20%.

So based on these numbers:

1) Ron Paul will win New Hampshire if he can gain another 5% there before primary day.
2) Ron Paul will be polling within the margin of error for the GOP lead if he wins that state.

I think PB was at 11% in NH not 14%.

[Nash]

I think PB was at 11% in NH not 14%.

It depends on what poll you're looking at but yeah the range is 11-14%.

[RevolutionSD]

I don't live in New Hampshire but I guess his victory came out of nowhere. Nationally he was viewed as the gadfly who only served to push Bob Dole to the right and keep him honest. Dole was the "front-runner" and the media reminded everyone of that. His nomination was basically inevitable according to the media. When Buchanan won NH the GOP completely freaked out. Every single establishment guy in the party came out of the woodwork to blast Buchanan as an extremist and endorse Dole. He was swift-boated in a matter of weeks.

When Ron Paul wins New Hampshire we're gonna be sadly longing for the days that the media ignored us. We seen only a fraction of the negative press he's gonna get after he wins. It is going to get VERY UGLY. We must be vigilant because it's gonna get a lot worse before it gets better.

Agreed they haven't even started with the hit pieces yet but I still will not be longing to them ignoring us. Who cares? We know they don't have anything on RP and most MSM "journalists" are just trying to justify their career which they know is quickly being made irrelevant by the internet and new technology.

[hawkeyenick]

I don't live in New Hampshire but I guess his victory came out of nowhere. Nationally he was viewed as the gadfly who only served to push Bob Dole to the right and keep him honest. Dole was the "front-runner" and the media reminded everyone of that. His nomination was basically inevitable according to the media. When Buchanan won NH the GOP completely freaked out. Every single establishment guy in the party came out of the woodwork to blast Buchanan as an extremist and endorse Dole. He was swift-boated in a matter of weeks.

When Ron Paul wins New Hampshire we're gonna be sadly longing for the days that the media ignored us. We seen only a fraction of the negative press he's gonna get after he wins. It is going to get VERY UGLY. We must be vigilant because it's gonna get a lot worse before it gets better.

That's why the official campaign is aiming at third, it's strategically the best position to be in

[FreedomLover]

That's why the official campaign is aiming at third, it's strategically the best position to be in

They better be aiming for first or second.

[hawkeyenick]

They better be aiming for first or second.

They don't want first or second, they expect too much flak if that happens.

They expect certain people to drop out after each state, and it keeps us from the the big bullseye.

Coming out of NH it will be a 3 way race, and we will have the momentum.

[JAM824A]

'"Huckabee's strength so far may be a positive, values-oriented message," CNN polling director Keating Holland said. "He ranks first when GOP voters are asked who shares their Republican values and who has spent the least time criticizing his opponents. He also scores well on likeability and believability, although Giuliani beats him on those measures."'

That makes me cringe; how can someone--anyone--see Giuliani as personable and honest. The guy is as despicable as they come. And all Huckabee does is rip his opponents: he jokingly (I hope) suggested that they kill themselves, for God's sake! He pressures the freeing of rapists, thinks homosexuals will ruin America, wants to isolate people with AIDS and supports the death penalty; all while his son is off getting away, or off easy, with killing dogs and sneaking firearms into airports. Where do they find these people that they poll? I just can't believe that our citizens actually hold these opinions...

[FreedomLover]

They don't want first or second, they expect too much flak if that happens.

They expect certain people to drop out after each state, and it keeps us from the the big bullseye.

Coming out of NH it will be a 3 way race, and we will have the momentum.

I'm not sure where you are getting this information, but it is very short-sighted, and completely wrong.

Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, Huckabee, and McCain will all still be in the race long after New Hampshire is over.

The campaign can't stop people from voting for him anyway, unless they plan to block supporters from voting to make sure he doesn't get past third place.

Also: Coming out of NH in third place does not give you momentum, it gives you the opposite, a lot of people are expecting RP to do better than third, it's a month out and he's already nearing 30% with independents.

[AlexMerced]

I'm not sure where you are getting this information, but it is very short-sighted, and completely wrong.

Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, Huckabee, and McCain will all still be in the race long after New Hampshire is over.

The campaign can't stop people from voting for him anyway, unless they plan to block supporters from voting to make sure he doesn't get past third place.

Also: Coming out of NH in third place does not give you momentum, it gives you the opposite, a lot of people are expecting RP to do better than third, it's a month out and he's already nearing 30% with independents.

THe campaign is going for the sleeper victory, that's why they are spreading resources evenly among all the early states, you get more credibility from doing 2/3rd in multiple states than doing bad 6/7 and winning one. This is how Mccain/Buchanan both screwed up their NH momentum before, but I guess they didn't have the money we do.


Ron Pauls success will come fromconsistent success like in the straw polls, where he did really well in a lot of them, but even in the oens he didn't win he did well.

We must win NH, but we must be top 3 in at least 4 other states to combat the media blowback that happens to any candidate when they get throw into the front.

[icon124]

Well 24 minus 5 is 19 and 6 plus 5 is 11 so that means that Giuliani could only be 8% ahead of Paul.

or he could be 27% lol u gotta look at both sides not just that

[Andrew-Austin]

'"Huckabee's strength so far may be a positive, values-oriented message," CNN polling director Keating Holland said. "He ranks first when GOP voters are asked who shares their Republican values and who has spent the least time criticizing his opponents. He also scores well on likeability and believability, although Giuliani beats him on those measures."'

That makes me cringe; how can someone--anyone--see Giuliani as personable and honest. The guy is as despicable as they come. And all Huckabee does is rip his opponents: he jokingly (I hope) suggested that they kill themselves, for God's sake! He pressures the freeing of rapists, thinks homosexuals will ruin America, wants to isolate people with AIDS and supports the death penalty; all while his son is off getting away, or off easy, with killing dogs and sneaking firearms into airports. Where do they find these people that they poll? I just can't believe that our citizens actually hold these opinions...

Don't try and make sense of doublethink.

[AlexMerced]

the polls are exactly what they say they are, a barometer of likely voters, nothing more or less so...

- don't dismiss the poll cause it's not representative of all potential voters, that'd be even more misleading and inaccurate

- don't think cause we poll 6% among Likely voters doesn't mean we're only get 6% of the ACTUAL vote

it's like most economic indicators, just something to point too to gauge success from different angels, by every other metric we dominate, and we're slowly growing to dominate this metric as well.

[JAM824A]

the polls are exactly what they say they are, a barometer of likely voters, nothing more or less so...

- don't dismiss the poll cause it's not representative of all potential voters, that'd be even more misleading and inaccurate

- don't think cause we poll 6% among Likely voters doesn't mean we're only get 6% of the ACTUAL vote

it's like most economic indicators, just something to point too to gauge success from different angels, by every other metric we dominate, and we're slowly growing to dominate this metric as well.

This is true just as much as it is true that most of the candidates in these elections are full of it. The polls aren't that great of barometers, yet the MSM treats them like they are and that therefore affects the viewers opinion--in this case for the worse. The media also glorifies their own favorite "front runners" which may not be the best but still "become" the best in the minds of viewers from constant reinforcement. So that's one reason to care about these polls...

[literatim]

How was the mainstream coverage of Buchanan? Did they say "you cannot win"?

Oh it was much worse than that. They really tried to ruin his name after he won NH. It was to the point where they were interviewing residents in an apartment building he owned, trying to dig up dirt on him.