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View Full Version : Why Ron Paul Can Win the Iowa Caucuses




SAVEamerica
07-01-2007, 09:31 AM
Ron Paul's rally in DesMoines today was a huge success, drawing close to 1,000 supporters, several hundred more than the candidates forum that excluded him due to "credibility" factors. After today, someone has a credibility problem, but it's definitely not Ron Paul. Ed Failor of Iowans for Tax Relief will have some explaining to do to the members of his organization, for not inviting the candidate who wins "The Taxpayer's Best Friend" award every year, and who is apparently a bigger draw than all of the other second tier candidates, combined.

But there is much more hope for the continued rapid growth of Ron Paul's support in Iowa (and elsewhere) than his modest 2% showing in the latest Strategic Vision Iowa poll and the enthusiastic crowd at his rally. Here is the question the ten pro-war Republican candidates must come to terms with, from the same poll, asked of 600 likely Republican caucus goers June 22nd to 24th:

Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)

Yes -- 56%
No -- 38%
Undecided -- 6%



Let that sink in for a moment. A MAJORITY of Iowa REPUBLICAN voters want US troops withdrawn from Iraq, within the next six months. For all practical purposes, that amounts to an immediate withdrawal, an admission that the war was a colossal mistake, and a decision that leaving Iraq is preferable to staying there, no matter what happens after we leave.

Then realize that in an eleven-candidate field, Ron Paul is the only Republican who has opposed the Iraq war from the beginning, and is the only candidate calling for an immediate and total withdrawal -- exactly what the majority of Iowa Republican voters want. Ron Paul may be at 2% now, but he will rise much higher in Iowa (and elsewhere) when more voters learn of his stands on the issues, and grow even more weary of the war.

It doesn't hurt that Ron Paul is reliably conservative on the other issues that matter to Iowa Republicans, more so than the current front-runners, whether the issue is immigration, or taxes, or abortion, or privacy, or the Second Amendment. It doesn't hurt that Ron Paul has an incredibly consistent record and a well-deserved reputation for honesty and integrity, either.

It may seem a bit optimistic to be discussing the possibility of a Ron Paul victory in the Iowa caucuses, but today's rally is just the first in a series of momentum-building events in the next few weeks. People in Iowa will talk about the rally, whether or not the mainstream media covers it. YouTube videos of the event will be seen thousands of times. A New Hampshire straw poll is coming up next week, and Ron Paul could surprise people there. Ron Paul rallies in California and Las Vegas in the next two weeks will keep the momentum building. Second-quarter fundraising totals will shock the mainstream pundits.

Ron Paul is the Republican candidate with the most upside, and the one generating the most enthusiasm, not just online but in the real world as well. The debates may have sparked the first real interest in the Ron Paul presidential campaign, but June 30th, 2007, just might mark the beginning of the Ron Paul revolution.

Maybe there really is Hope for America.

http://paul4prez.blogspot.com/2007/06/why-ron-paul-can-win-iowa-caucuses.html

Swmorgan77
07-01-2007, 09:35 AM
Wow, so it appears that the only thing left is to make those 56% aware that Ron Paul is their guy.

nayjevin
07-01-2007, 09:37 AM
this is so much better than the drivel we get from the newspapers -- and it's because it is more ACCURATE, FACT BASED, AND RELEVANT.

Good job.

rich34
07-01-2007, 09:42 AM
Very good point, but you also have to factor in the "new" (converted democrats, independents and libertarians) republicans that will be showing up to support Ron Paul and with that our odds are getting even better!

SAVEamerica
07-01-2007, 09:47 AM
Good job.
I didn't write this, just found it when I was searching for something else.

BillyBeer
07-01-2007, 10:51 AM
Yes Ron Paul is the only Republican opposed to the war. His non interventionist stance is also appealing to Caucus voters. The problem is that this does not mean the anti war Republicans are one issue voters who will vote for Paul. A message of liberty and personal freedom in the tradition of Goldwater and Reagan appeals to Republican voters along with his anti war stance. More than any other candidate, Paul can claim to be Right from the beginning.

RJB
07-01-2007, 10:55 AM
Don't forget he's also one of the few candidates apposed to pre-emptive war PERIOD-- democrat or republican. He is the only republican candidate who can TAKE votes from Hillary, obama and edwards.

njandrewg
07-01-2007, 10:59 AM
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/IA/results.html


Population(2000): 2,926,324
not sure if thats 80K total is representatives or actual voters. Anyways, either way, the GOP party will be much lower. Lets say 60K total. And out of those Rudy/Romney/Thompson/McCain will each get about 20%

George W. Bush 35,231 41%
Steve Forbes 26,198 30%
Alan Keyes 12,268 14%
Gary Bauer 7,323 9%
John McCain 4,045 5%
Orrin Hatch 882 1%


Al Gore 1,269 63%
Bill Bradley 698 35%
Uncommitted 33 2%