Government forecasters knew that storm was not going to be as bad as predicted

[Anti Federalist]

So, they lied.

At a cost of god only knows how much money.

And these are the people we are supposed to believe about "climate change".

And the "private' forecasters are as spun up and out of control as the rest of them.

Keep in mind it is the Weather Channel corp. that is behind the idiocy of "naming" winter storms, in collusion with the insurance industry, so as to limit coverage and liability in the wake of a "named" storm, just like they do with hurricanes.

h/t to Keith and stuff


Weather Service decided last minute not to cut snow forecast

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_SCI_WINTER_WEATHER_FORECAST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-03-14-17-17-34

By SETH BORENSTEIN
AP Science Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Before the first snow fell, U.S. meteorologists realized there was a good chance the late-winter storm wasn't going to produce giant snow totals in big Northeast cities as predicted.

But they didn't change their forecasts because they said they didn't want to confuse the public.

National Weather Service meteorologists in Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington held a conference call Monday afternoon about computer models that dramatically cut predicted snow amounts. They decided to keep the super snowy warnings.

"Out of extreme caution we decided to stick with higher amounts," Greg Carbin, chief of forecast operations at the Weather Prediction Center in suburban Maryland, told The Associated Press. "I actually think in the overall scheme that the actions (by states and cities) taken in advance of the event were exceptional."

On Monday, the weather service predicted 18 to 24 inches of snow in New York City. By late Tuesday afternoon, Central Park was covered with a little more than 7 inches of snow with rain and sleet still falling. Other areas, including upstate New York and Connecticut, received more than a foot and a half of snow. Swaths of Pennsylvania were walloped by 20 to 30 inches of snow.

Carbin said a last-minute change downgrading snowfall totals might have given people the wrong message that the storm was no longer a threat. It still was, but real danger was from ice and sleet in places like New York City and Washington, he said.

Dramatically changing forecasts in what meteorologists call "the windshield wiper effect" only hurts the public, said Bob Henson, a meteorologist for the private Weather Underground.

Carbin stood by the decision.

"The nature of the beast is that there's always uncertainty in every forecast and we have to get better at describing that," Carbin said.

The right amount of precipitation fell, but it came down as rain and sleet because the rain-snow line moved inland, according to Carbin and private forecasters.

The rain-snow line is a 50 mile wide north-south swath where cold Arctic air from the north and west clashes with warm, moist air from the Atlantic. West of the snow line saw heavy snow while east had rain and sleet.

The snow line happens to center on New York City so it was a bigger deal than if the line had been over a rural area, said private meteorologist Ryan Maue of WeatherBell Analytics .

Private forecast outfits said the National Weather Service did a good job forecasting a tough storm despite the beating the federal agency took on social media.

"Overall the range of the forecast was very solid. It ended up being on the low end," Henson said. "I understand why people can be frustrated when the expectation is the big storm."

University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd, host of the television show "Weather Geeks," said the public focused too much on worst-case scenarios.

"The perception of 'bust' is that it didn't materialize for New York in the manner expected. Much of the expected snow fell as sleet," Shepherd said in an email. "To me, ice is a far greater hazard. If a pitcher throws a strike down the center of the plate or just off the outside corner, it's still a strike. "

[JohnCifelli1]

I am one of those spun up out of control forecasters, and you've got it wrong. Most importantly, there was plenty of model data that did NOT dramatically lower totals Monday afternoon. The data that did suggest that took the snow vs. mix line JUST into the northern suburbs of Philly and NYC. You don't overhaul a forecast because your confidence is weakened by some of poorer scoring models moving the mix line by 25 mere miles at the last second. Making the growing uncertainty a part of the message would be appropriate and prudent. There's no conspiracy here.

[UWDude]

I think the bigger scandal is not reporting New York is now three feet under water, as predicted by ABC and Al Gore in the early 1990's for 2015, because of Global warming.

[angelatc]

. Making the growing uncertainty a part of the message would be appropriate and prudent.

But they did not do that. I don't think it's a conspiracy, just patronizing arrogance.

[Anti Federalist]

I am one of those spun up out of control forecasters, and you've got it wrong. Most importantly, there was plenty of model data that did NOT dramatically lower totals Monday afternoon. The data that did suggest that took the snow vs. mix line JUST into the northern suburbs of Philly and NYC. You don't overhaul a forecast because your confidence is weakened by some of poorer scoring models moving the mix line by 25 mere miles at the last second. Making the growing uncertainty a part of the message would be appropriate and prudent. There's no conspiracy here.

Thanks for commenting.

As Angelatc stated, I don't think there is a conspiracy afoot, rather a mindset being promoted: "out of control weather, deadly, watch out!!!"

I've been a mariner all my life, as such, I rely heavily on accurate forecasting to route and plan voyages and decide on "no go" issues.

I have noticed in recent years a definite swing toward "worst case always" forecasting, sometimes coupled with plain old sloppy forecasting, to the point now where I must rely more on my own observations and weather reckoning.

Some, including myself, say that is good thing, that I should not rely on government weather forecasting. The problem is, in today's society, 40 years of experience and a seasoned observation to come to conclusion is not good enough. Everything must be produced and vetted by third party "experts" to have any weight in the decision making process. And the word of these third party experts is taken as gospel, and cannot be disputed or deviated from.

It was this total faith in forecasting that started the chain of events that led to sinking of the El Faro with the loss of her whole crew.

At the same time, I understand the eight ball this puts people like yourself behind: if you ever took the chance to "under forecast" an event, and it turned into a major weather disaster, people would be lining up to sue around the block.

[pcosmar]

science

http://www.fizzicseducation.com.au/site/fizzicseducation/images/Experiments/images%20274px%20wide/Science%20trivia%20questions%20and%20answers%202.j pg

[JohnCifelli1]

You're right, there is just as much emphasis on hype by weather media as there is substance. But thats not what this article says, this article implies that the NWS coordinated witholding information from the public. You corroborated that sense by calling northeast forecasters liars. I'm telling you that just isn't the case.

Now as to hype in forecasting, the product is tailored to the consumer. It's no different than 24 hour news. I don't like it either and I'm proud to work for a public broadcasting station that avoids sensationalism. I also think the NWS are the gold standard of non-hyped forecasting. The meat and potatoes of their products is plain text (area forecast discussion product).

To our mutual concern about expressing uncertainty, it's worth noting that at least the Philly and New York offices, if not all, now show three snow maps side by side. From left to right: expect at least this much, most likely total, and worst case scenario. It's a beta product, but it does show that there are efforts to be clear about possibilities, at least from NWS.

[AngryCanadian]

science

http://www.fizzicseducation.com.au/site/fizzicseducation/images/Experiments/images%20274px%20wide/Science%20trivia%20questions%20and%20answers%202.j pg
And another reason why MSM has a very low trust poll.

[phill4paul]

I rely on a local weather enthusiast. His Facebook forecasts far exceed the reliability of any of the local and national meteorologists. Of course his forecasts are only for the Piedmont and Mtns. of N.C. He never hypes and he provides updates as the conditions change.

[Jan2017]

Fake news from even The Weather Channel now . . .


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jocI_R8lMpM

[TheCount]

HAARP

[mrsat_98]

science

http://www.fizzicseducation.com.au/site/fizzicseducation/images/Experiments/images%20274px%20wide/Science%20trivia%20questions%20and%20answers%202.j pg


HAARP


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUcebrltge0

[RPtotheWH]

Yet somehow we know what the weather will be in 20 years...................I don't even check the weather anymore unless I am looking 1 day ahead. I don't remember weather being so sensationalized or blatantly wrong when I was younger. Naming winter storms now is a complete joke.

[phill4paul]

Here's my "Go to" guy for the Western Carolina forecasts:

http://raysweather.com/

Fedbook: https://www.facebook.com/pg/Rays-Weather-Center-167617589938698/reviews/?ref=page_internal

http://static.raysweather.com/images/golfometerkey.gif

[ChristianAnarchist]

science

http://www.fizzicseducation.com.au/site/fizzicseducation/images/Experiments/images%20274px%20wide/Science%20trivia%20questions%20and%20answers%202.j pg



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZOW5GdgCGw

[Anti Federalist]

The view from behind the wheel of my truck going down the hill toward my house.

http://i.imgur.com/DT2kLTu.jpg

[silverhandorder]

This storm was actually shitty. It had snow then hail then snow. Packed real nice. Temperature is low and will stay low for a week. Already on the second day a ton of ice everywhere.

Parts of the state thankfully not where I am got hit with a lot of snow.

Edit: also f climate change liberals.

[JohnCifelli1]

Sleet, not hail.

OK I'll stop now. Back to lurking. 😎

[Anti Federalist]

You're right, there is just as much emphasis on hype by weather media as there is substance. But thats not what this article says, this article implies that the NWS coordinated witholding information from the public. You corroborated that sense by calling northeast forecasters liars. I'm telling you that just isn't the case.

I had to go with the story as reported, lacking any "inside" information. At worst it seems now to be a "lie of omission".


Now as to hype in forecasting, the product is tailored to the consumer. It's no different than 24 hour news. I don't like it either and I'm proud to work for a public broadcasting station that avoids sensationalism. I also think the NWS are the gold standard of non-hyped forecasting. The meat and potatoes of their products is plain text (area forecast discussion product).

I have to hand it to NWS in this regard, you folks have flat out refused to take part in this "named winter storm" nonsense.

[Anti Federalist]

Sleet, not hail.

OK I'll stop now. Back to lurking. ��

Good catch!

No, please hang around and join in.

We could use some more input.

[JohnCifelli1]

AF to clarify I'm not affiliated with the NWS. I forecast for the NJ PBS TV station.

[JohnCifelli1]

Thanks, I'll chime in when I have value to add. You're one of my favorite posters here btw.

[katsung47]

So, they lied.

At a cost of god only knows how much money.

And these are the people we are supposed to believe about "climate change".

And the "private' forecasters are as spun up and out of control as the rest of them.

"
They did so not for the belief of "climate change". It's because the Feds who created this storm change their plan.



951. New plot on 3/15? (3/10/2017)


For the 2/19/2017 framed case, Trump administration sent a China most wanted fugitive back to China. (see #947)


Yesterday they did it again which may mean the FBI hurriedly organize another plot.



One of China's "most-wanted" fugitives returns from U.S. to surrender


Reuters Reuters March 9, 2017


BEIJING (Reuters) - A former employee of a state-owned newspaper who figured among China's 100 "most-wanted" fugitives has returned from the United States to turn himself in, the top anti-graft body said on Thursday, as China mapped out its strategy on fugitives in 2017.


https://www.yahoo.com/news/one-chinas-most-wanted-fugitives-returns-u-surrender-092948247.html


The new plot likely would happen on 3/14 or 3/15 when The Federal Reserve plans to raise rates "if the economy cooperates". Since the FBI used to prepare a big event to distract public attention, they can develop a financial storm by poping up the balloon of stock market and housing market with that rising interest rate.


This week, W.S. came to my house twice at night.She talked with my wife at doorway in darkness. I allege W.S. is an agent of Chinese secret police (see #668, #669 and #724. Frame a case of Chinese intelligence link) Her presence always link to some attempt framed case. So be this time.


see #668,#669 and #724 at: http://katsung.forumotion.com/t2p50-how-the-feds-persecute-people




952. A big terror attack planed on 3/15 (3/19/2017)


I think the Feds(D.O.D. and D.O.J.) planed a nuclear attack at New York on 3/15 to distract the elimination case of Kat Sung. The similar attempts played several times in previous time. See #683. The rare seen natural disasters aim at New York (8/26/2011) and #763. Why select New York? (3/18/2013)


I alleged the Feds(D.O.D.and D.O.J.) had brought down WTC buildings with mini nukes. A lot of rescue workers died of cancers there after. To blame the increasing cancer patients rate for other cause, they need a nuclear disaster. But how to avoid a big casualty(to avoid pressure of compensation)? A disaster to lock people at home and keep travelers coming to New York.


New York had a warm January and "Mega-warm February 2017 will make Central NY winter one of warmest ever"(2/28 news reported) Then there was a dramatical turn around.



Winter Storm Stella is going to slam New York City


By Yaron Steinbuch and Lia Eustachewich March 13, 2017




Get out now while you still have the chance!


A blizzard warning has been issued for New York City and much of the tri-state area beginning at midnight Tuesday as Winter Storm Stella threatens to dump as much as 18 inches of snow.


Whiteout conditions are expected to make travel extremely dangerous and power outages are likely amid crippling wind gusts of 20 to 40 mph, according to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tom Kines.


http://nypost.com/2017/03/13/blizzard-warning-issued-as-winter-storm-stella-gears-up/


The 3/15 plot cancelled because my revelation "951. New plot on 3/15? (3/10/2017)", I think. For a terrorist attack, (Trump's Sweden terrorist attack) they could stop operation immediately. But it's hard to change weather in minutes or hours. To change weather they need days long to spreading chemical to alter the area temperature. So

"National Weather Service accused of knowingly misleading public


March 16, 2017,


the agency forecasted up to a foot and a half of snow in New York, but only 7.6 inches fell.


http://www.cbsnews.com/news/national-weather-service-accused-of-knowingly-misleading-public-blizzard/



763. Why select New York? (3/18/2013)


Several years after 911 attack, people were rattled by unusual cancer case among first responders of ground zero. They started to think the WTC were pulled down by mini nukes.



"35 Reasons for Many Small Fission Nukes at the WTC
Thursday, July 02, 2009


1) heat generation at ground zero for six months (china syndrome)
.....


http://wtcdemolition.blogspot.com/2009/07/35-reasons-for-many-small-fission-nukes.html"



"China Syndrome at the WTC


http://www.nucleardemolition.com/chinasyn.html"


Then cancer caused death rapidly rose. 345 Ground Zero workers have died of various cancers as of June 2010.



"9/11 NUKE DEMOLITION PROOF: Firefighters Radiation Cancers “Off the Scale?


April 4, 2011 By Daily Mail Reporter


A seven-year study by the New York Fire Department has claimed that there are ‘unusual rises?in the number of cancer cases among firefighters who worked in the aftermath of 9/11.


Dr. David Prezant, the Fire Department’s chief medical officer, has reportedly said that cancer cases across ‘all ranks?of the FDNY who worked at Ground Zero are ‘up significantly?


It is thought that the report ?due to be officially disclosed in time for the 10th anniversary of the terror attacks in September ?cites unusual rises in leukemia, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma and multiple myeloma.


‘It’s a fact that New York City firefighters are dying of cancer in record numbers.


‘We have buried 10 firefighters in just the last 15 weeks, seven with cancer. On Sept. 10, 2001, they were young, healthy firefighters.?


The New York state Health Department has confirmed that 345 Ground Zero workers have died of various cancers as of June 2010.


http://www.veteranstoday.com/2011/04/04/911-nuke-demolition-proof-firefighters-radiation-cancers-off-the-scale/"


Now you should understand why Eric Holder announced to put "911 mastermind K.S.Mohammed " on trial in New York" in 2009. It was used to justify an "Al Qaida revenge attack for trial of their leader". The planned attack was a nuclear one, so they could blame the cancer were caused by Al Qaida terror attack. The purpose is to cover up the truth that in 911 attack, mini nukes were used. The similar tactic has been tried in 2007, when a B-52 flied over US continental with 6 loaded nuke missiles. New York must have been the target of these nuclear missiles. Of course, mainstream media beat the drum on 911 Master-mind trial but rarely report the unusual cancer deaths of the first responders of ground zero. Because that would expose who was the real Master-mind of 911 ?Al Qaida has no nuclear bomb.