Stockman: "After March 15 Everything Will Grind To A Halt"

[openfire]

Posting this here (as opposed to the economy & markets forum) because if Stockman is right, this could become one of the biggest political stories of 2017...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xgNncFHAng

[Madison320]

I've been posting here many times about the debt ceiling suspension ending in March since the election. I agree with a lot of what he said but I disagree with a couple things. My guess is that the republicans simple re-suspend the debt ceiling until after the next mid term elections. And I also disagree that the Fed is done printing and keeping rates low. I don't think the Fed is going to stop stimulating until we get a currency crisis, until the official inflation rate is maybe 5-10% (the actual rate would be much higher).

[Krugminator2]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/01/opinion/01stockman.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/david-stockman-youd-be-a-fool-to-hold-anything-but-cash-now-2012-3
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-03-31/stockman-warns-of-crash-of-fed-fueled-bubble-economy
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-implosion-is-near-signs-of-the-bubbles-last-days/
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/05/21/stockman-stocks-and-bonds-will-crash-soon.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/07/stocks-are-a-disaster-waiting-to-happen-stockman.html
http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/david-stockman-stock-market-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/2016/11/06/id/757307/
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/22/david-stockman-doubles-down-on-his-sell-everything-call.html

Stockman-Wrong about everything since 1982. http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2013/03/david_stockman.html

Stockman makes free market people look like idiots. Eventually we will have a stock market correction and a recession but given that he has predicting doom forever, his progostications are worse than useless.

[TheCount]

Posting this here (as opposed to the economy & markets forum) because if Stockman is right, this could become one of the biggest political stories of 2017...Do you really think that a Republican party with a majority in both houses whose President was elected on a platform of spending trillions of dollars on government stimulus and corporate welfare is going to cut their own throats by preventing that spending?

[Iowa]

He had Reagan pegged.

[jllundqu]

Gee I wonder what will happen? Will the GOP suddenly become fiscal conservatives despite Trump wanting massive new spending? No.

Upside is that people like Rand, Amash, Massie and others can grab every microphone and camera in sight and call Trump and the GOP on their hypocrisy and bullshit.

[Brian4Liberty]

If you are interested in going to a party at Ron Paul's house, David Stockman will be there...

Details:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?508042-War-And-Peace-In-The-Age-Of-Trump

[AngryCanadian]

We shall see. We had seen these doom theories since 2012.

[Zippyjuan]

Will Republicans call for a balanced budget like they did when Democrats were in power? Or will they raise or even get rid of the debt ceiling and add to the debt? I am more inclined to go with the latter. With all of his spending ideas and proposed tax cuts and calling for more government borrowing while rates are low Trump certainly doesn't favor a balanced budget- let alone real budget cuts.

Trump can propose a budget but Congress has to write and pass the actual spending bills.

[CPUd]

OMB has a balanced budget guy, he says they will soon hate him in DC.

[FSP-Rebel]

According to Stockman, Trump gets to focus the spending (monthly revenues) on his priorities and shelve the non priority bills. In other words, potentially renegotiate certain debts and payments which will be interesting to see. Inheriting a $20 trill debt w/ a shitty economy can't be fun but there needs to be massive government spending cuts and a total overhaul of SS and medicare to even make way for tax cuts. Forget adding a dime to the military, audit the freakin Pentagon and get rid of the garbage.

[Zippyjuan]

According to Stockman, Trump gets to focus the spending (monthly revenues) on his priorities and shelve the non priority bills. In other words, potentially renegotiate certain debts and payments which will be interesting to see. Inheriting a $20 trill debt w/ a $#@!ty economy can't be fun but there needs to be massive government spending cuts and a total overhaul of SS and medicare to even make way for tax cuts. Forget adding a dime to the military, audit the freakin Pentagon and get rid of the garbage.

Trump has said he will not touch welfare programs like SS and Medicaid (in fairness, Ron Paul also said he would not cut those either to "honor promises the country had made to people" who had qualified for them) . The only other target of large spending one could cut from is defense- and he wants to spend more on that. Social Security and Medicaid spending will continue to rise even if no changes are made in them.

2017 proposed budget:
https://media.nationalpriorities.org/uploads/2017_pres_budget_total_spending_pie.png

[oyarde]

Trump has said he will not touch welfare programs like SS and Medicaid. The only other target of large spending one could cut from is defense- and he wants to spend more on that. Social Security and Medicaid spending will continue to rise even if no changes are made in them.

2017 proposed budget:
https://media.nationalpriorities.org/uploads/2017_pres_budget_total_spending_pie.png
If he intends to run a second time he should leave those alone and cut everything else to the bone now . See what can be done later there . Personally , I would settle for a lump sum refund of the first 225,000 I pd in .

[Madison320]

We shall see. We had seen these doom theories since 2012.

Chances are the crash won't be in March, predicting the timing is impossible. But I think we'll learn a whole lot more about the Trump Administration than we know now. So far we really have no idea what he's going to do. This will be the first real data we get, in my opinion.

[Madison320]

Do you really think that a Republican party with a majority in both houses whose President was elected on a platform of spending trillions of dollars on government stimulus and corporate welfare is going to cut their own throats by preventing that spending?

Yup. Also Stockman kind of makes it sound like suspending the debt ceiling only happened once and won't happen again. In reality they've suspended the debt ceiling the last 3 times beginning in 2013. We don't raise it anymore. Suspending it is the new normal. I'm pretty sure the last two suspensions happened without much controversy.

What annoys me is the hysterical reaction by the media to enforcing the debt ceiling. Yes, it will suck but it prevents a much bigger problem in the future.

[FSP-Rebel]

Trump has said he will not touch welfare programs like SS and Medicaid (in fairness, Ron Paul also said he would not cut those either to "honor promises the country had made to people" who had qualified for them) .

I'm keenly aware of both Trump's and Ron's positions on the matter but I disagree w/ both of them. Nothing personal but these same people (by and large) that based their lives upon promises made to them by corrupt politicians and voted for more of them, time and time again, need to take responsibility for that and should've had a personal safety net to brace for impact these same empty promises coming from these known lying politicians all along. Oyarde is right about getting reelected and all so I would like to see as much as possible be cut to the bone even if I don't have my way on the major entitlements in the short term. I have sympathy for those w/ chronic health/physical issues and we should leave them in the loop until a vast array of charitable help options can manifest again but means testing has to be in play if we truly want to MAGA.

I like Trump on certain things but military spending and holding the line on entitlements doesn't make financial sense. Time will tell how this all plays out. I'm long Bitcoin and metals and live beneath my means. Too many have lived above their means and/or have lived off the backs of others for too long and the future won't be kind to them.

[AngryCanadian]

Chances are the crash won't be in March, predicting the timing is impossible. But I think we'll learn a whole lot more about the Trump Administration than we know now. So far we really have no idea what he's going to do. This will be the first real data we get, in my opinion.

Indeed, more likely there are a chances for a major crisis in Europe not US. The signs are everywhere.

[Madison320]

I'm keenly aware of both Trump's and Ron's positions on the matter but I disagree w/ both of them. Nothing personal but these same people (by and large) that based their lives upon promises made to them by corrupt politicians and voted for more of them, time and time again, need to take responsibility for that and should've had a personal safety net to brace for impact these same empty promises coming from these known lying politicians all along. Oyarde is right about getting reelected and all so I would like to see as much as possible be cut to the bone even if I don't have my way on the major entitlements in the short term. I have sympathy for those w/ chronic health/physical issues and we should leave them in the loop until a vast array of charitable help options can manifest again but means testing has to be in play if we truly want to MAGA.

I like Trump on certain things but military spending and holding the line on entitlements doesn't make financial sense. Time will tell how this all plays out. I'm long Bitcoin and metals and live beneath my means. Too many have lived above their means and/or have lived off the backs of others for too long and the future won't be kind to them.

I agree with much of what you said but I hate means testing for SS! Why should responsible people who live beneath their means get screwed by people who live in debt? I totally agree SS should be phased out, but it should be phased out for everyone. Gradually raise the age or gradually cut benefits and gradually lower the payroll tax. But no exceptions for people who are financially responsible. That would be the ultimate screw to see my neighbors living off SS because they pissed away their money while I have to live off my own savings.

[Athan]

Good vid. A lot of people are complacent, but the debt and deficit didn't disappear. I'm glad I'm hearing shit like hiring freeze, mass firings of 7th floor assholes, and such. I haven't gotten my hopes up or down. It is just hard to make an honest analysis with the changes taking place.

[69360]

Stockman is wrong. The GOP has the the white house, congress and senate. They have no interest in cutting off their spending now. They will keep the Fed printing Trump's whole term. There will be no crisis or crash.

[devil21]

Stockman is wrong. The GOP has the the white house, congress and senate. They have no interest in cutting off their spending now. They will keep the Fed printing Trump's whole term. There will be no crisis or crash.

They may be forced to by the bankers. That's still who Congress, by and large, takes their orders from, not voters. If the bankers are cutting off the credit card then Congress has no choice.

I thought it interesting that Congressional travel expenses went from $300,000 in 2015 to over a million in 2016, with a lot of the travel being to London and back.

[Zippyjuan]

They may be forced to by the bankers. That's still who Congress, by and large, takes their orders from, not voters. If the bankers are cutting off the credit card then Congress has no choice.

I thought it interesting that Congressional travel expenses went from $300,000 in 2015 to over a million in 2016, with a lot of the travel being to London and back.

Numbers are way low. Unless you mean each member. Could be several reasons London may be listed as a top destination. One- they speak the same language. Two- London may be a stopover to other points in Europe or Africa.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/27/taxpayers-fund-first-class-congressional-foreign-travel-boom-overseas/98351442/


Congress spent at least $14.7 million on taxpayer-funded trips in fiscal year 2016, a 27% increase over the year before, according to Congress’ own accounting.

And that may be a low estimate. The Treasury Department reported that congressional travel cost nearly $20 million last year, the highest figure ever recorded, based on data provided by the State Department, which arranges official foreign travel for lawmakers. Neither Treasury nor State would explain the discrepancy, but both agencies stood by the higher figure.

Also it does not include trips on military transport which taxpayers may also be paying for.

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/usatoday/editorial/graphics/2017/02/022717-congressional%20travel_Online%20copy.png

[FSP-Rebel]

I agree with much of what you said but I hate means testing for SS! Why should responsible people who live beneath their means get screwed by people who live in debt? I totally agree SS should be phased out, but it should be phased out for everyone. Gradually raise the age or gradually cut benefits and gradually lower the payroll tax. But no exceptions for people who are financially responsible. That would be the ultimate screw to see my neighbors living off SS because they pissed away their money while I have to live off my own savings.

Based upon the system in place, means testing is inherently wrong. But, the whole game is rigged and those that have will have to take a haircut to keep the shell game going and let the numbers help along w/ the other needed cuts. In lieu of that, this nation-state is finished and it's every person for themselves. Bitcoin and metals will moon while the average person, like 75% or more of the population, will be in dire straits. That said, if Trump has some ace up his sleeve to repudiate all the debts held by bankers and foreigners, we'll see. I just don't see the dollar surviving at this point, either way.

[devil21]

Numbers are way low. Unless you mean each member. Could be several reasons London may be listed as a top destination. One- they speak the same language. Two- London may be a stopover to other points in Europe or Africa.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/27/taxpayers-fund-first-class-congressional-foreign-travel-boom-overseas/98351442/



Also it does not include trips on military transport which taxpayers may also be paying for.

http://www.gannett-cdn.com/usatoday/editorial/graphics/2017/02/022717-congressional%20travel_Online%20copy.png

Yeah that was the article I read, numbers were top-of-the-head. Big jump in expenses regardless.