Trump decries ‘phony’ polls showing him with a historically bad approval rating

[CPUd]

Trump decries ‘phony’ polls showing him with a historically bad approval rating

Donald Trump says a pair of polls that show he is set to take office as the most unpopular newly elected president in at least 40 years are “phony” and “rigged.”

“The same people who did the phony election polls, and were so wrong, are now doing approval rating polls,” the president-elect tweeted Tuesday morning. “They are rigged just like before.”


According to a new ABC News/Washington Post survey released Tuesday, just 40 percent of Americans view Trump favorably, compared to the 79 percent who viewed Barack Obama favorably when he took office in 2009.

Trump trails each of his six predecessors — Jimmy Carter (78 percent), Ronald Reagan (58 percent), George H.W. Bush (65 percent), Bill Clinton (68 percent), George W. Bush (62 percent) and Obama (79 percent) — in terms of favorability. And Trump is the only president-elect of the last seven to be viewed unfavorably by a majority of Americans, with 54 percent currently holding that view.

A CNN/ORC survey, also released Tuesday, showed Trump with a 40 percent approval rating on the eve of his inauguration, or 44 points below the 84 percent who approved of Obama at the start of 2009.

Trump’s approval rating is also well below the 61 percent for George W. Bush in 2001 and 67 percent who approved of Clinton in 1993.

https://i.imgur.com/rPJSASi.png

According to the ABC News/Washington Post poll, just 40 percent of Americans approve of the way Trump has handled the transition — exactly half of the 80 percent who approved of the way Barack Obama handled his in 2009.

The same survey also found that 44 percent of Americans believe that Trump is qualified to serve as president, while a majority (52 percent) says he is not.

During the 2016 campaign, Trump was fixated on his poll numbers, frequently blasting them out on Twitter when they delivered him good news. But when they showed him behind his rivals, he occasionally accused media organizations of rigging the numbers.

On the eve of the general election, most national polls showed Trump narrowly trailing Hillary Clinton, with the Democratic nominee holding a slight edge (anywhere from 2 to 4 percentage points) over her Republican rival.

While Trump ultimately captured the Electoral College to win the presidency, Clinton won the national popular vote by nearly 2.9 million (65,844,954 to 62,979,879) — an advantage of slightly more than 2 percent.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-decries-phony-polls-showing-him-with-a-historically-bad-approval-rating-143804996.html

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

One star terrible rating for a CPUd Progressive thread.

[Jamesiv1]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-decries-phony-polls-showing-him-with-a-historically-bad-approval-rating-143804996.html
Same guys that laughed hysterically when he announced, and same guys that said Hillary was a 98% shoe-in.

fug 'em and the polls they rode in on.

[CPUd]

https://i.imgur.com/E35LtIC.jpg

[Jamesiv1]

https://i.imgur.com/E35LtIC.jpg
a CNN poll??

must be legit.

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

Bathhouse Barry favorable at almost 80% and unfavorable under 20%? No, I am not buying it.

Reagan unfavorable at only 18%? No, I am not buying that either.


CNN shows once again why they lost the election.

[CPUd]

822206342513434625
https://twitter.com/106th/status/822206342513434625

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

822206342513434625
https://twitter.com/106th/status/822206342513434625




LOL. Those are not even showing the same perspective.

[CPUd]

Can You Trust Trump’s Approval Rating Polls?


For perhaps the first time since last November’s election, polls are making headlines again. Surveys from CNN, Gallup, ABC News and The Washington Post, NBC News and the Wall Street Journal and Quinnipiac University all have Donald Trump with net-negative numbers on handling his presidential transition and duties as president-elect. On average between the five surveys, 41 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s transition performance while 52 percent disapprove.

http://i.imgur.com/AG2o4xf.png

While those numbers wouldn’t be all that out of line for a sitting president’s job approval rating — almost every recent commander-in-chief has endured a slump or two — they’re unusual for a president-elect. Newly elected presidents typically enjoy high approval ratings as they transition into office. Even George W. Bush, who won the 2000 election only after a contentious recount and despite losing the popular vote, had about two-thirds of Americans approving of his transition as he prepared to take the oath of office.

And so Trump — in what’s almost certainly a sign of things to come — has pushed back against the approval-ratings polls on Twitter. Let’s let @realDonaldTrump take the dais:

One might be inclined to make a variety of rebuttals here. For instance, these particular pollsters aren’t especially good targets for Trump’s ire. Of the five pollsters, only ABC News and NBC News issued late national polls, and they were both fairly close to the mark, projecting Hillary Clinton to win the popular vote by 4 percentage points (in fact, Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points). Quinnipiac did issue late polls that showed Clinton narrowly ahead in Florida and North Carolina, although Trump’s narrow win in Florida was comfortably within the poll’s margin of error.

Also, these approval ratings polls are measuring opinions among all adults, instead of registered or likely voters. In theory, polls that sample all adults are less error-prone, since a pollster doesn’t have to worry about projecting who will turn out to vote.

But all of that may be getting too much into the weeds. There’s no doubt that polls took a trust hit during the campaign and that Trump is going to exploit it.

Here’s the thing. The loss of trust mostly isn’t the pollsters’ fault. It’s the media’s fault. Oh, yes, I’m going there. The loss of trust in polls was enabled, in large part, by reporting and analysis that incorrectly portrayed the polls as showing an almost-certain Clinton win when in fact they showed a close and highly uncertain Electoral College race, especially after FBI Director James B. Comey’s letter to Congress on Oct. 28.

As my colleague Harry Enten put it a few days before the election, Trump was only a normal-size polling error away from winning. Clinton would win if the polls were spot on — and she’d win in a borderline landslide in the event of an error in her favor. But the third possibility — if the polls underestimated Trump, even slightly — would probably be enough for Trump to win the Electoral College. (That’s why FiveThirtyEight’s forecast during the final week of the campaign showed Trump with roughly a 1-in-3 chance of winning the Electoral College, dipping slightly to 29 percent on Election Day itself.)

That third possibility is pretty much exactly what happened. Trump beat the final FiveThirtyEight national polling average by only 1.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, he beat the final FiveThirtyEight polling average in the average swing state — weighted by its likelihood of being the tipping-point state — by 2.7 percentage points. (The miss was larger than that in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Clinton met or slightly exceeded her polls in several other swing states.) This was nothing at all out of the ordinary. The polls were about as accurate as they’d been, on average, in presidential elections since 1968. They were somewhat more accurate than they’d been in the most recent federal election, the 2014 midterms. But they were enough to tip the election to Trump because Clinton had been in a precarious position to begin with.

Yep, this is opening up a can of worms. And get ready, because we’re going to be uncracking a giant, industrial-size vat of worms later this week, with a series of articles that ask why the conventional wisdom was so sure Clinton would win when (in our view, anyway) that conclusion wasn’t justified based on the polls. The answers turn out to be pretty interesting — and complicated — so I’ll save the detail for later.

In the meantime, with polls in the news again, I’d urge my journalistic colleagues to do a better job of reporting on uncertainty when they report on polling data. Not only do polls have a margin of sampling error — for instance, the margin of sampling error on CNN’s poll of 1,000 adults is plus or minus 3 percentage points — but they also have other types of errors, such as nonresponse bias. The people who respond to polls — often under 10 percent of the population contacted — may not be representative of the population as a whole, and that creates a lot of challenges.

...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/can-you-trust-polling-in-the-age-of-trump/

[Zippyjuan]

Bathhouse Barry favorable at almost 80% and unfavorable under 20%? No, I am not buying it.

Reagan unfavorable at only 18%? No, I am not buying that either.


CNN shows once again why they lost the election.

"At the time of their inauguration".

[ghengis86]

lol. Same over sampling like the election polls
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-17/new-abc-wapo-poll-shows-drop-trump-favorabilty-through-aggressive-oversamples

And same for Obama the other way.

Just be honest

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

"At the time of their inauguration".

Yes, I know.

[Zippyjuan]

lol. Same over sampling like the election polls
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-17/new-abc-wapo-poll-shows-drop-trump-favorabilty-through-aggressive-oversamples

And same for Obama the other way.

Just be honest

Oversampling will occur with any survey- your sample will always include some group in larger numbers (and some group in smaller numbers) than their share of the overall population. What matters is if the results are weighted to compensate for that oversampling. The poll results were weighted.

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

The poll results were weighted.

Source?

[Zippyjuan]

Source?

Sure. http://abcnews.go.com/US/PollVault/abc-news-polling-methodology-standards/story?id=145373


Weighting

Data are adjusted to account for the greater probability of respondents who have both a cell and landline phone, compared with those who are cell-only or landline-only. The data then are weighted using demographic information from the U.S. Census and NHIS to adjust for variance from population values. Weights may include average partisan self-identification in current and recent ABC/Post data, based on a standardized rule.

Until 2008 we used cell-based weighting, in which respondents were classified into one of 48 or 32 cells (depending on sample size) based on their age, race, sex and education; weights were assigned so the proportion in each cell matched the Census Bureau’s most recent Current Population Survey data. To achieve greater consistency and reduce the chance of large weights, in January 2008 we adopted iterative weighting, also known as raking or rim weighting, in which the sample is weighted sequentially to Census targets one variable at a time, continuing until the optimum distribution is achieved.

From October 2008 to June 2015, data were post-stratified to Census region by sample type; rim weights then were calculated using Census parameters for age, race/ethnicity, sex and education. The precision of race/ethnicity weights was enhanced in April 2013. In July 2015, post-stratification by sample type was discontinued and Census region and phone service (landline only, dual service and cell-only) were added to the rim weighting variables. Weights are capped at lows of 0.2 and highs of 6.

Surveys commonly are weighted to the number of telephone lines in each respondent’s home to adjust for the higher probability of selection of multiple-line households. ABC News has studied the effect of such weighting (Merkle & Langer, Public Opinion Quarterly, Spring 2008) concluding that it carries the risk of distortion, and, when done properly, has no meaningful impact on the data. ABC News polls therefore are not weighted to the number of household phone lines.

[agitator]

http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/000/218/530/wtf_is_this_shit_Very_Disturbing_Childrens_Book_RE _We_dont_say_ampquotGermanampquot_in_America-s400x297-59009.jpg

[seapilot]

Here is the latest poll from the Oligarch Media,

http://cdn.deccanchronicle.com/sites/default/files/GARBAGE%20on%20road.jpg

[TER]

In China, paid internet trolls get paid the equivalent of $0.50 per post.

I wonder how much they get paid in America... :confused:

[timosman]

In China, paid internet trolls get paid the equivalent of $0.50 per post.

I wonder how much they get paid in America... :confused:

https://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/ModSquad-Salaries-E368756.htm

[CPUd]

http://i.imgur.com/JZqUn8B.png
http://i.imgur.com/84MTd8R.png
http://i.imgur.com/calRWBn.png
http://i.imgur.com/EwINh5a.png
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2415

[Zippyjuan]

If you don't like poll results, they must be fake.

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

Sure.


The polls were from CNN. You posted from ABC. You also did not go back to 1976 and all the other years.

[Zippyjuan]

https://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/ModSquad-Salaries-E368756.htm

Is that where you got your job?

[Zippyjuan]

The polls were from CNN. You posted from ABC. You also did not go back to 1976 and all the other years.

The Zerohedge article which complained about oversampling was concerning the ABC poll so I posted their methodology. You are welcome to check any other poll methodology you like.


But, proving they still got it, ABC/Washington Post and CNN are out with a pair of polls on Trump's favorability this morning that sport some of the most egregious "oversamples" we've seen. The ABC/Wapo poll showed an 8-point sampling margin for Democrats with only 23% of the results taken from Republicans...

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

Don's transition was, arguably, very different from his predecessors. He is being covered and doing things as if he is already in office. I don't think anyone else used Twitter like him. Maybe Barry, but certainly not that monkey Bush.

So, Don's numbers are more comparable to someone already in office.

And I don't even like this clown.

[oyarde]

"At the time of their inauguration".

If I were Trump I would point out that a 39 point difference from Obummer should never be considered bad :)

[seapilot]

If you don't like poll results, they must be fake.

The source is untrustworthy, therefore the poll is suspect even if it might be true.

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

You are welcome to check any other poll methodology you like.


I already did. Looks like the methodology in forecasting Clinton's win might have been off.

[Zippyjuan]

CNN Methodology: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/01/16/trump.2.pdf


METHODOLOGY

A total of 1,000 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones.
Among the entire sample, 32% described themselves as Democrats, 24% described themselves as Republicans, and 44%
described themselves as independents or members of another party.

All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect
national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage.

[Zippyjuan]

I already did. Looks like the methodology in forecasting Clinton's win might have been off.

The general election polls were actually within the margin of errors. Where they were wrong was in the Electoral College results. Clinton did win the popular vote.

[timosman]

Is that where you got your job?

SmarterChild 2.0 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SmarterChild) strikes back.:cool:

[Zippyjuan]

I see. You are a bot.

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

CNN Methodology: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/01/16/trump.2.pdf


Those polls go back to Jimmy Carter. Do you have those methodologies?

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

I see. You are a bot.

Who was your presidential voting choice 2016?

Congress?

Local candidates?

What party are you registered?

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

The general election polls were actually within the margin of errors. Where they were wrong was in the Electoral College results. Clinton did win the popular vote.

You mean those popular polls weren't weighted?

[Slave Mentality]

Will these two ever get tired of posting their drivel? You don't like Trump, we get it. Neither do I, but damn I have much better things to do. Get over it. You are either getting paid, or have some serious psychological issues.

[timosman]

I see. You are a bot.

Welcome back to the stage, SmarterChild. :cool:

[CPUd]

Will these two ever get tired of posting their drivel? You don't like Trump, we get it. Neither do I, but damn I have much better things to do. Get over it. You are either getting paid, or have some serious psychological issues.

What drivel?

[timosman]

Will these two ever get tired of posting their drivel? You don't like Trump, we get it. Neither do I, but damn I have much better things to do. Get over it. You are either getting paid, or have some serious psychological issues.

I second this diagnosis. Something is clearly fucked up. The only other explanation is Bryan is being paid for allowing this excuse of an AI experiment to run on this site.

[timosman]

What drivel?

!!diagnostics

[ThePaleoLibertarian]

I think this has more to do with the state of mass media in relation to Presidential politics than Trump specifically. We're seeing more of the candidates before, during and after the election. Remember that twitter wasn't a thing in 2008.

Had she won, Hillary's approval rating might've been a few points higher, but I doubt it would have been all that different.

[CPUd]

I think this has more to do with the state of mass media in relation to Presidential politics than Trump specifically. We're seeing more of the candidates before, during and after the election. Remember that twitter wasn't a thing in 2008.

Had she won, Hillary's approval rating might've been a few points higher, but I doubt it would have been all that different.

Usually what happens after close elections is the messaging coming from the transition team moves to the center, that's not exactly what's happening now. Trump's approval I am guessing will move slowly toward 50% until the next crisis, where it will move a bit faster one way or the other, depending on how it is handled.

[seapilot]

Here is another fake poll from Rasmussen.

http://archive.is/XgnrW

[dannno]

Hah, still posting polls... that is hilarous.

[dannno]

820429521665093633

[CPUd]

Hah, still posting polls... that is hilarous.

Is there a better way to estimate sentiment?

[dannno]

Is there a better way to estimate sentiment?

Is there a worse way?

[Jamesiv1]

Clinton did win the popular vote.
Not if you include the +/- margin of shenanigans.

I live in a largely hispanic part of town - probably 75-80%.

All one needed to vote was a utility bill. <=== shenanigans

[dannno]

Clinton did win the popular vote.

In 2008, approximately 2.8 million illegals voted, so it makes sense that 3-4 million voted this time.. and I'm guessing they weren't voting for the guy who wanted to deport them, so..

[enhanced_deficit]

Media neocons still angry that Trumpster proved their Fake News polls to be rigged. That on top of Putin exposing Media insiders passing debate questions to SWC Hillarry... can't blame neocons for being in denial still after such humiliating insults from DJ Donmaster ( quoting Jamie).


Also, is it possible he rigged election? His chances were slim.



Donald Trump is poised to lose in the biggest landslide in modern American history
(http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?500436-Donald-Trump-is-poised-to-lose-in-the-biggest-landslide-in-modern-American-history/page2&)
Polls: Clinton Running The Table in Key Battlegrounds (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?499382-Polls-Clinton-Running-The-Table-in-Key-Battlegrounds&)



http://i.imgur.com/t8b2Hb6.png

[CPUd]

Media neocons still angry that Trumpster proved their Fake News polls to be rigged. That on top of Putin exposing Media insiders passing debate questions to SWC Hillarry... can't blame neocons for being in denial still after such humiliating insults from DJ Donmaster ( quoting Jamie).


Also, is it possible he rigged election? His chances were slim.



Donald Trump is poised to lose in the biggest landslide in modern American history
(http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?500436-Donald-Trump-is-poised-to-lose-in-the-biggest-landslide-in-modern-American-history/page2&)
Polls: Clinton Running The Table in Key Battlegrounds (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?499382-Polls-Clinton-Running-The-Table-in-Key-Battlegrounds&)

Wow, what a strange post.

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

The general election polls were actually within the margin of errors. Where they were wrong was in the Electoral College results. Clinton did win the popular vote.


All they had to do was poll people in each state to arrive at an electoral poll result.

[timosman]

All they had to do was poll people in each state to arrive at an electoral poll result.

They actually did, but reaching the correct conclusion was beyond their abilities. :rolleyes:

[silverhandorder]

Knowing that zippy and CPUd were 100% wrong from primaries and through election. It is easy to use them as contrarian indicators. You guys remember how shrill zippy got during November.

On the ground Trump has fantastic approval rating. Aka anyone who voted for him is through the roof. And I know a lot of people who are pleasently surprised. So it looks like Rasmussen got it right.

[CPUd]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pep_2gRJ3pw

[Zippyjuan]

Knowing that zippy and CPUd were 100% wrong from primaries and through election. It is easy to use them as contrarian indicators. You guys remember how shrill zippy got during November.

On the ground Trump has fantastic approval rating. Aka anyone who voted for him is through the roof. And I know a lot of people who are please try surprised. So it looks like Rasmussen got it right.

Rasmussen has him at about 50% approval rating too. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/january_2017/52_view_trump_favorably


Voter attitudes about President-elect Donald Trump have changed little since Thanksgiving, with just over half of voters continuing to give him favorable marks.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters share a favorable opinion of Trump, with 30% who have a Very Favorable one. The president-elect is viewed unfavorably by 48%, including 37% with a Very Unfavorable view. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

[silverhandorder]

Rasmussen has him at about 50% approval rating too. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/january_2017/52_view_trump_favorably

I am OK with 50. ;)

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

ZippyJuan,

I am still waiting for an answer to these questions.



Who was your presidential voting choice 2016?

Congress?

Local candidates?

What party are you registered?

[PierzStyx]

Will these two ever get tired of posting their drivel? You don't like Trump, we get it. Neither do I, but damn I have much better things to do. Get over it. You are either getting paid, or have some serious psychological issues.

This sounds like a slave mentality to me. So, well named.

[nobody's_hero]

This sounds like a slave mentality to me. So, well named.

Because posting MSM polling data after their credibility was

OBLITERATED

last year, is truly badge of resistance to oppression.

I guess we're all counting on the underground railroad of leftist "journalists" to ferry us to the salvation of truth. Damn, we're f*#ked.

[Superfluous Man]

One star terrible rating for a CPUd Progressive thread.

There you go again.

How in the world is this thread progressive?

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

How in the world is this thread progressive?


I did not say the thread is progressive. I said CPUd is progressive. I capitalized the word progressive, although I acknowledge the syntax is awkward or just really bad.




There you go again.

There you go again getting your little butt hurt. You sure spend a lot of time defending CPUd and ZippyJuan. Wonder why. :rolleyes:

[staerker]

If you don't realize that corporate media polls are fake news, after this election, you are blind.

[CPUd]

If you don't realize that corporate media polls are fake news, after this election, you are blind.

Well, it really depends on what they show. For instance, if a poll is favorable to Trump, he will post it on twitter and his supporters will say it's legit. If it is not, he will call it fake and his supporters will say it's fake.

[staerker]

Well, it really depends on what they show. For instance, if a poll is favorable to Trump, he will post it on twitter and his supporters will say it's legit. If it is not, he will call it fake and his supporters will say it's fake.

Nope. Washington Post is fake news.

[nobody's_hero]

Honestly I just don't see the Right parade polls around as the gospel of truth as much as the Left does. That seems to be an inherent characteristic of the leftist media elites. It kind of goes hand in hand with a devout commitment to the principle of majority rule. 'We have more people who think like us, therefore we are right and you are wrong.'

Of course, that means even less after last year, because after they LIED in the polls leading up to election day, you can't even be sure that they have the majority anyway.

[Slave Mentality]

This sounds like a slave mentality to me. So, well named.

At least I am self aware. Keep paying those taxes bro.

[CPUd]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2UtJJZUsAA1R15.jpg

[timosman]

I am totally not a bot.;)

[CPUd]

http://i.imgur.com/PUWDKNr.png

[timosman]

All bots report to the base immediately.

[CPUd]

http://i.imgur.com/gRrbAKh.png

[enhanced_deficit]

http://i.imgur.com/gRrbAKh.png







Donald Trump is poised to lose in the biggest landslide in modern American history
(http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?500436-Donald-Trump-is-poised-to-lose-in-the-biggest-landslide-in-modern-American-history/page2&)
Polls: Clinton Running The Table in Key Battlegrounds (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?499382-Polls-Clinton-Running-The-Table-in-Key-Battlegrounds&)



http://i.imgur.com/t8b2Hb6.png


Are these polls you are pushing now are of same statistical quality as the polls you were pushing before the election... or there is some change in quality?

BTW, where do you stand on Fake News?

[CPUd]

Are these polls you are pushing now are of same statistical quality as the polls you were pushing before the election... or there is some change in quality?



I'll let you figure that one out. There are a lot of numbers and symbols and stuff, but you need to understand what they mean or you will continue to embarrass yourself with these weird posts.

[timosman]

I'll let you figure that one out. There are a lot of numbers and symbols and stuff, but you need to understand what they mean or you will continue to embarrass yourself with these weird posts.

There has never been a better time to take your own advice. :cool:

[nikcers]

“If we kept the oil, you probably wouldn’t have ISIS because that’s where they made their money in the first place, so we should have kept the oil, but, OK, maybe we’ll have another chance,” America first!

[Superfluous Man]

If you don't realize that corporate media polls are fake news, after this election, you are blind.

They're usually accurate within the margin of error.