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View Full Version : What are Mitt/Rudy expected to raise in 4th quarter?




talonferguson
12-09-2007, 05:26 AM
I'm making a presentation on Ron Paul for my family. Can someone give me a projection of our contenders fundraising this quarter?

aspiringconstitutionalist
12-09-2007, 05:27 AM
I'm making a presentation on Ron Paul for my family. Can someone give me a projection of our contenders fundraising this quarter?

2.

2 dollars.

Each.

MRoCkEd
12-09-2007, 06:11 AM
2.

2 dollars.

Each.
Each? no.

total.

SonicInfinity
12-09-2007, 06:12 AM
-_-

jrich4rpaul
12-09-2007, 06:20 AM
2.

2 dollars.

Each.

Aqua Teen reference? :p

SpicyItalian739
12-09-2007, 06:23 AM
Instead of being condescending and reveling in your own infinite knowledge of cartoon pop culture, you could -- in fact -- have looked at records of previous campaign fundraising numbers per quarter, taken an average of the percentage of movement between 3 and 4, and, ultimately, given an estimate of that percentage applied to 3rd quarter numbers. You know.

manny
12-09-2007, 06:35 AM
I don't know where the official stats are but I'm sure someone here will help you.

Good luck trying to sell Ron to your family. My advice is that to try to be too aggressive and "close the deal" there and then can be counter-productive. Of course let them see your enthusiasm but your best bet is to simply plant the seed... I mean give them the info on RP's record, character and ideas. Maybe print out some slimjims from the official website for your family. Tell them where they can find out more. And target it. If you have a family member who is pro-2nd then go for that angle. Or an anti-war family member should be an easy sell. Hope you get a few new converts :)

Corydoras
12-09-2007, 06:48 AM
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=41034

That post does NOT have projections for Mitt and Rudy, but it DOES have some interesting comments on the patterns shown by the 2004 race.

I think you will find this whole post quite useful.

TheNewYorker
12-09-2007, 07:04 AM
Mitt will always outraise us because he can write his campaign any check he wants to.

Giuliani, I will say he will raise 15mil.

Luther
12-09-2007, 07:25 AM
Mitt will always outraise us because he can write his campaign any check he wants to.

Giuliani, I will say he will raise 15mil.


Writing a check to himself doesn't qualify as "raising" money for his campaign.

rawkd
12-09-2007, 07:28 AM
Well, Mitt will donate a whole lot to himself. Actually, I think after the TEA PARTY money bomb Ron will be up around 16 million. This should at least tie the other Rep. candidates.

TheNewYorker
12-09-2007, 07:33 AM
Writing a check to himself doesn't qualify as "raising" money for his campaign.

No, but that's how the media reports it, and that's all that matters.

ronpaulyourmom
12-09-2007, 08:26 AM
http://query.nictusa.com/pres/2007/Q3/ - 3rd Quarter Numbers
http://query.nictusa.com/pres/2007/Q2/ - 2nd Quarter Numbers

That should be a good starting point. It's already been said on TV that he'll probably out-raise all the other republican candidates this quarter. I'm sure if you look enough on YouTube you'll find Wolf Blitzer or Tucker saying as much.

conner_condor
12-09-2007, 08:30 AM
What are Mitt/Rudy expected to raise in 4th quarter?
Votes for RP and huck and huck will raise votes for RP from all his lies and flip flops is my guess.

ross11988
12-09-2007, 09:22 AM
I would say Guliani - $20 million
Romney -$16 million

kotetu
12-09-2007, 10:53 AM
Mitt, McCain and Rudy will go down in the 4th. They have gone down every quarter and will continue to fall. Thompson probably will go down also, but he had huge momentum in early October, so he may be flat rather than down. Clearly Huck is riding the currents up a bit in fundraising, and we are the best ever.

Statistics from wikipedia (link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundraising_for_the_2008_presidential_election)) (does not include loans)

Candidate Money Raised, 3Q
Rudy Giuliani $11,624,255.00
Mitt Romney $9,896,719.00
Fred Thompson $9,750,820.00
John McCain $5,734,477.00
Ron Paul $5,258,455.00
Mike Huckabee $1,034,486.00
Duncan Hunter $486,356.00
Tom Tancredo $767,152.00

Candidate Money Raised, 2Q
Rudy Giuliani $17,599,292
Mitt Romney $14,275,263
John McCain $11,591,044
Ron Paul $2,369,453
Tom Tancredo $1,466,188
Duncan Hunter $814,417
Mike Huckabee $765,873

Candidate Money Raised, Q1
Mitt Romney $21,084,634
Rudy Giuliani $18,029,974
John McCain $14,798,613
Tom Tancredo $1,256,090
Ron Paul $639,989
Mike Huckabee $544,157
Duncan Hunter $538,524


Quarterly Deltas

Candidate Q3 to Q4 change so far
Ron Paul +103%
Mike Huckabee +248%

Candidate Q2 to Q3 change
Rudy Giuliani -34%
Mitt Romney -31%
Fred Thompson
John McCain -16%
Ron Paul +142%
Mike Huckabee +35%
Duncan Hunter -40%
Tom Tancredo -48%

Candidate Q1 to Q2 change
Rudy Giuliani -2%
Mitt Romney -32%
John McCain -22%
Ron Paul +270%
Tom Tancredo +17%
Duncan Hunter +51%
Mike Huckabee +41%


my estimates

Candidate Q3 to Q4 Money Raised, Q4
Ron Paul +246% $18,200,000.00
Rudy Giuliani -40% $6,974,553.00
Mitt Romney -40% $5,938,031.40
Fred Thompson -40% $5,850,492.00
Mike Huckabee +296% $4,100,000.00
John McCain -40% $3,440,686.20
Duncan Hunter -40% $291,813.60
Tom Tancredo -40% $460,291.20

hawkeyenick
12-09-2007, 11:05 AM
Numbers will be below Q3 for everyone but Paul and Huckabee...end of story

manny
12-09-2007, 11:10 AM
In fairness to the mass media (and it's probably the first and last time I'll offer anything other than bitter contempt to them) on the day of the 5th money bomb, Mitt came out with blatant lies about how much he had raised in a day. It looked like Fox might run the story (appeared on their website). But actually when people looked into what Mitt had said and found it to be, like 99% of the stuff he says, completely divorced from reality, they dropped it and did give Ron a fair bit of praise.

Will be interesting to see how they contrast Ron raising millions through ordinary people and Mitt lending himself money this quarter.

As Ron Paul supporters we should be nice and compassionate and I'll admit I feel very sorry for Mitt supporters - donating to a capaign to pay back money to a multi-millionaire who is running purely for his ego. Hate to think any poor souls are making any sacrifices for such a terrible politician.

FreedomLover
12-09-2007, 11:21 AM
I'm positive Rudy and Mitt will both 'raise' less than 10 million dollars.

So my educated guess would be around 7-8 million for both of them.

LBT
12-09-2007, 11:21 AM
my estimates

Candidate Q3 to Q4 Money Raised, Q4
Ron Paul +246% $18,200,000.00
Rudy Giuliani -40% $6,974,553.00
Mitt Romney -40% $5,938,031.40
Fred Thompson -40% $5,850,492.00
Mike Huckabee +296% $4,100,000.00
John McCain -40% $3,440,686.20
Duncan Hunter -40% $291,813.60
Tom Tancredo -40% $460,291.20

I think this won't be far from correct. Maybe 6 mill for Huckabee.

I'll also be surprised if Ron doesn't reach 20 mill. Even though 18.2M is pretty amazing.

If we get to 18 mill on the 16th, which I think will happen, then I'm sure we can fire up in the final week for 2 mill.

And don't forget that the cash on hand figures are going to be even more amazing for Ron.

FreedomLover
12-09-2007, 11:37 AM
I think this won't be far from correct. Maybe 6 mill for Huckabee.

I'll also be surprised if Ron doesn't reach 20 mill. Even though 18.2M is pretty amazing.

If we get to 18 mill on the 16th, which I think will happen, then I'm sure we can fire up in the final week for 2 mill.

And don't forget that the cash on hand figures are going to be even more amazing for Ron.

It's a double edged-sword, If he has too much cash on hand and he does bad in the primaries then it means he should have spent it quicker.

If he does well in the early primaries though, he'll be able to compete in the feb 5th states...and considering the possibility of a fragmented race for 1st, funds for the later states will be very valuable.