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View Full Version : Tea Party vs. 5th of November




Cowlesy
12-08-2007, 09:22 PM
I was curious if anyone had done a metric to do a very simple extrapolation of the # of subscribers to the 5th of November in comparison to the # for the Tea Party.

Do we have more subscribers to the Tea Party than we did to the 5th of November, and does anyone think if there is indeed an increase, that this will similarly translate like the 5th of November into an even higher new donor #?

Just curious if anyone has done the math, or has insights.

Thanks

jake
12-08-2007, 09:42 PM
http://www.ronpaulgraphs.com/teaparty_vs_nov5_members.png

kylejack
12-08-2007, 09:49 PM
Positive things:
More subscribers
More media publicity
Proof-of-concept took place on 11/5
Plenty of excitement

Negative things:
Close, close proximity to Christmas
Possible hostile false-pledgers who were angry about Ron Paul's 11/5 success, and/or media like the Donklephant guy false-pledging to get updates

Cowlesy
12-08-2007, 09:56 PM
Does that Feedburner thing have any controls to slow down the process of someone spamming pledges? It won't take duplicate emails, not easy to run a script on?

I'm almost not as worried about this because I feel like a jerk would have run the tally up much higher.

Thanks for that RPGraph, I didn't even think to check there.

francisco
12-08-2007, 10:15 PM
Positive things:
More subscribers
More media publicity
Proof-of-concept took place on 11/5
Plenty of excitement

Negative things:
Close, close proximity to Christmas
Possible hostile false-pledgers who were angry about Ron Paul's 11/5 success, and/or media like the Donklephant guy false-pledging to get updates


I'm not too worried about false pledges, because unlike the Blimp situation, only the number of pledges (not the intended dollar amount) has been posted. Also, the number of pledges is currently below the number of actual donors on Nov.5, so any false pledgers are only hurting their own cause.

My own expectation is that a higher proportion of people who intend to make a contribution have signed a pledge this time, because they have more confidence in the integrity of the project after the Nov.5th success. So, while on Nov.5 there were roughly twice as many contributions as pledgers, on Dec.16th the excess ratio may be smaller.

My current guess is that total collections will be about $6 million. However I am of course hoping for more. One big unknown is how much extra publicity the Blimp will garner. So far the buzz is promising; there has already been a lot of notice, most of which makes a connection between the Blimp and Dec.16th.