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View Full Version : Gary Johnson reaches 25% in NM, 23% in Utah, 19% in Alaska, 19% in SD, 17% Kansas...




RJ Liberty
09-06-2016, 10:36 PM
Here are the numbers, based on the latest Washington Post/Survey Monkey poll: (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-new-50-state-poll-shows-exactly-why-clinton-holds-the-advantage-over-trump/2016/09/05/13458832-7152-11e6-9705-23e51a2f424d_story.html)



State
Sample
Johnson
Clinton
Trump


New Mexico
1,788
25%
37%
29%


Utah
722
23%
27%
34%


South Dakota
809
19%
29%
43%


Alaska
989
19%
31%
38%


Idaho
716
19%
25%
44%


Kansas
741
17%
30%
43%


Colorado
2,428
16%
37%
37%


North Dakota
549
16%
26%
51%


Iowa
1,875
16%
36%
40%


Washington
722
16%
41%
31%


Wyoming
727
15%
21%
57%


Rhode Island
625
15%
41%
33%


Minnesota
2,054
15%
41%
34%


Maine
715
15%
37%
34%


Nebraska
983
15%
32%
42%


New Hampshire
1,218
14%
40%
34%


Missouri
1,801
14%
34%
43%


Montana
999
14%
31%
44%


Indiana
2,294
13%
30%
46%


Virginia
2,468
13%
43%
36%


Oklahoma
1,041
13%
26%
49%


Ohio
2,543
13%
37%
40%


Michigan
2,428
13%
39%
38%


Arizona
2,026
13%
37%
39%


Wisconsin
2,687
13%
39%
37%


Nevada
2,776
12%
40%
37%


Georgia
2,034
12%
39%
40%


Connecticut
1,053
12%
44%
33%


West Virginia
698
12%
27%
52%


Delaware
637
12%
43%
33%


Pennsylvania
2,861
12%
41%
38%


California
2,574
12%
49%
28%


Illinois
2,599
12%
45%
31%


Massachusetts
1,167
11%
48%
29%


Arkansas
765
11%
37%
46%


Oregon
877
11%
47%
32%


Texas
5,147
11%
40%
40%


Vermont
550
11%
45%
24%


South Carolina
894
10%
38%
45%


North Carolina
2,552
10%
40%
41%


Florida
3,287
10%
42%
40%


Tennessee
1,021
10%
31%
51%


Maryland
1,199
9%
54%
27%


Louisiana
871
9%
33%
49%


Alabama
958
8%
31%
53%


New Jersey
912
8%
49%
34%


New York
1,405
8%
51%
31%


Kentucky
732
7%
29%
52%


Hawaii
546
7%
51%
25%


Mississippi
823
4%
43%
46%




At this rate, Johnson has a serious chance to take several states. Utah and New Mexico, and possibly Alaska, Kansas, and South Dakota. Nebraska and Maine may also end up giving him some electoral college votes, based on their split electoral votes. This would likely prevent both Clinton or Trump from reaching 270.

oyarde
09-06-2016, 10:42 PM
Johnson @ 33 would take New Mexico which would keep it out of Dem hands is my guess .

RJ Liberty
09-06-2016, 10:51 PM
Johnson @ 33 would take New Mexico which would keep it out of Dem hands is my guess .

Roughly, I think 33% or 32% would do it. Stein is on the ballot in NM, which will draw liberal voters away from Clinton as well. 9% of New Mexico voters are still undecided.

oyarde
09-06-2016, 11:06 PM
Trump looks like he is close on these numbers in Penn. , Wisc., Mich , Nev and Maine and the Dems look like gaining steam over normal in NH , NY , CT and Virginia . Johnson looks consistent throughout and should be able to win NM . The Pubs have to have Texas , Fla , Oh , Ga , NC and a lot more .

oyarde
09-06-2016, 11:10 PM
Johnson needs to try and make a push in Utah too. Clinton is not going to win that state but seeing her in third there would be nice .

RJ Liberty
09-06-2016, 11:24 PM
Johnson needs to try and make a push in Utah too. Clinton is not going to win that state but seeing her in third there would be nice .

It would indeed. :D The good news is that Johnson is seriously campaigning in Utah, as well. CNN reported today (http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/06/politics/gary-johnson-television-campaign/) that Gary is running TV ads in Utah, New Mexico, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, Colorado and New Hampshire. He's been staging rallies in those states, as well as Iowa and Wisconsin, as well. And radio ads are running in quite a few western states. He's doing quite well, despite getting only 33 seconds of coverage on the broadcast networks... for the whole campaign! (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/6/gary-johnson-receives-little-coverage-from-news-ne/)

eleganz
09-06-2016, 11:42 PM
When is the cut off date for the presidential debate polling? I think GJ is not going to make it, unfortunately. He really needs this first debate.

RJ Liberty
09-06-2016, 11:58 PM
When is the cut off date for the presidential debate polling? I think GJ is not going to make it, unfortunately. He really needs this first debate.

It's 20 days until the first CPD debate... He definitely needs to be in the debates, since the broadcast networks refuse to give him any airtime. These latest numbers are Perot-like numbers, so we'll see what happens.

Chester Copperpot
09-07-2016, 12:12 AM
there a story about trump not debating unless johnson is included

RJ Liberty
09-07-2016, 12:16 AM
there a story about trump not debating unless johnson is included
Yep! I saw that one.
Donald Trump Will Not Debate Hillary, if Gary Johnson not Allowed to Participate (http://www.smobserved.com/story/2016/09/04/news/donald-trump-will-not-debate-hillary-if-gary-johnson-not-allowed-to-participate/1894.html)



The Donald Trump for President 2016 campaign will pull out of the scheduled September 26th debate between Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Trump, unless third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are also allowed to participate.

This is a tactical move believed by most analysts to help Trump, because the third-party candidates seem to drain more support from Clinton then they do from Trump.

The Commission on Presidential Debates announced its 15 percent threshold last year, and last month it announced the set of five national polls it would use to measure each candidate's support.

RJ Liberty
09-07-2016, 12:48 AM
There are several dozen scenarios where the election goes to a vote in the House of Representatives. Something like the below could play out, based on the poll numbers above.

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/b1Zpk.png

Sujan
09-07-2016, 01:34 AM
Interesting. Even if Gary is not included in the debates, if he dedicates all his resources and time to campaigning in just 3 or 4 states, he could win them.

eleganz
09-07-2016, 02:00 AM
Yep! I saw that one.
Donald Trump Will Not Debate Hillary, if Gary Johnson not Allowed to Participate (http://www.smobserved.com/story/2016/09/04/news/donald-trump-will-not-debate-hillary-if-gary-johnson-not-allowed-to-participate/1894.html)

Jesus, Trump is either insane or a genius.

Hate him or love him, he thinks outside of the box and plays the game in a totally unpredictable way and I think that is healthy for US politics from the anti-establishment sense.

RJ Liberty
09-07-2016, 02:12 AM
Interesting. Even if Gary is not included in the debates, if he dedicates all his resources and time to campaigning in just 3 or 4 states, he could win them.
Indeed. Between the Johnson campaign and the four superPACs, they could pull off turning several states gold, based on these very strong poll numbers. There are now only eight states where Gary's polling below 10%.

JohnM
09-07-2016, 03:19 AM
WaPo numbers looking pretty good for GJ.

However, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_st ein-5952.html shows GJ polling at 8.1 on 6th September. And that is down on a few weeks ago - RCP have him at 8.9 on 11th August. His polling numbers look basically flat.

Things looking a little better for him at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/. They show his numbers improving in the last few days - but the figures are significantly lower than the WaPo figures.

For example:

New Mexico - 18.3
Utah - 14.2
South Dakota - 13.6

So - who should I believe? WaPo, RCP, or ProjectFiveThirtyEight?

Zippyjuan
09-07-2016, 03:44 AM
WaPo numbers looking pretty good for GJ.

However, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_st ein-5952.html shows GJ polling at 8.1 on 6th September. And that is down on a few weeks ago - RCP have him at 8.9 on 11th August. His polling numbers look basically flat.

Things looking a little better for him at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/. They show his numbers improving in the last few days - but the figures are significantly lower than the WaPo figures.

For example:

New Mexico - 18.3
Utah - 14.2
South Dakota - 13.6

So - who should I believe? WaPo, RCP, or ProjectFiveThirtyEight?

SurveyMonkey (WaPo) is an online poll. They didn't use the usual Washington Post survey methods. They aren't as accurate.


How the survey was conducted

The Post-SurveyMonkey poll used an online-based sampling methodology that differs from previous polls by The Washington Post. Those are telephone surveys based on random samples of cellular and landline phones.

The new poll was conducted online as part of SurveyMonkey’s 2016 Election Tracking project, which recruits respondents from the large number people who take polls on the company’s do-it-yourself survey platform, roughly three million each day. A subsample of respondents to this range of surveys — which includes formal and informal polls of community groups, companies, churches and other organizations — were invited to participate in a second survey with the prompt, “Where do you stand on current events? Share your opinion.” The survey was not advertised on any website, so individuals could not “click-in” in an effort to influence results. A survey invitation could be used only once.

A survey of people who do online surveys- not a random sample of the general population. I wouldn't give it much weight.


The Post has generally avoided citing results from non-probability Internet-based surveys such as SurveyMonkey, as it is impossible to draw a random sample of Internet users, and random selection is a widely accepted standard in drawing representative samples of any population.

As former governor of New Mexico it is not surprising that he does best in that state.

Zippyjuan
09-07-2016, 03:55 AM
CNN has him at seven percent this week- Fox has him at nine. They are two of the five the debate organizers are looking at.

http://reason.com/blog/2016/09/06/new-7-showing-in-cnn-poll-almost-certain


CNN/ORC this morning came out with its first national presidential poll in more than month, and the results are terrible for Gary Johnson's fading hopes of getting into this fall's presidential debates. The Libertarian nominee pulled just 7 percent in the survey, down from 9 percent in the same poll at the end of July, and 13 percent—his highest-ever showing nationwide—two weeks prior to that.

CNN/ORC is one of the Big Five national polls that will be averaged by the technically nonpartisan, effectively bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) in "mid-September" to assess which candidates will be taking part in the initial Sept. 26 event. Since another of the Big Five, Fox News, dropped a 9-spot on Johnson last week, that means that the other three polls would need to average 19.7 percent for Johnson to get to the unreasonably high 15 percent threshold. As it stands now, if the CPD were making its decision today, the Libertarian nominee would be at 8.8 percent across the selected five polls. Which, while being the most impressive third-party showing since Ross Perot in 1992, would still fall far short.


On Meet the Press over the weekend, Democratic presidential primary runner-up Bernie Sanders said that the CPD's 15 percent threshold is "probably too high." A spate of recent national polls show that Americans agree, including a Suffolk University/USA Survey last week showing 76 percent of Americans desiring third-party candidates be included in the debates. Unless that broad sentiment is converted into fantastical amounts of political pressure over the next two weeks, or one of either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump suddenly demand his inclusion, Johnson almost certainly will not make it into the first presidential debate.

Pew Poll out this week has him at ten percent. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/05/us/politics/gary-johnson-libertarian-third-party.html?_r=0

Chester Copperpot
09-07-2016, 07:14 AM
Jesus, Trump is either insane or a genius.

Hate him or love him, he thinks outside of the box and plays the game in a totally unpredictable way and I think that is healthy for US politics from the anti-establishment sense.

its how he gets his media time for free advertising... he knows how to control the narrative and make it interesting for all the TMZ brain dead zombies out there

RJ Liberty
09-07-2016, 09:19 AM
WaPo numbers looking pretty good for GJ.

However, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_st ein-5952.html shows GJ polling at 8.1 on 6th September. And that is down on a few weeks ago - RCP have him at 8.9 on 11th August. His polling numbers look basically flat.

Things looking a little better for him at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/. They show his numbers improving in the last few days - but the figures are significantly lower than the WaPo figures.

For example:

New Mexico - 18.3
Utah - 14.2
South Dakota - 13.6

So - who should I believe? WaPo, RCP, or ProjectFiveThirtyEight?


538.com and RCP are poll aggregators: they combine results of the last few polls, rather than reporting the latest poll. This is why the numbers for RCP and 538 are "significantly lower" than the results of a single poll. In New Mexico, for example, they combine the results of this poll with results from a poll taken back on August 19th, which is clearly a bit outdated.

Above, Zippyjuan says you shouldn't give this poll much weight, because it was only an online poll. But this wasn't a self-selected survey, and the sample sizes are very large: much, much larger than the sample sizes used for the CNN and Fox News polls he quotes. And 538.com considered the survey accurate enough to be used in its poll aggregator.

RJ Liberty
09-07-2016, 09:22 AM
This is an interesting graphic as well:

https://i.redd.it/kd6akzqnryjx.png

MattRay
09-07-2016, 02:37 PM
Jesus, Trump is either insane or a genius.

Hate him or love him, he thinks outside of the box and plays the game in a totally unpredictable way and I think that is healthy for US politics from the anti-establishment sense.

I agree. If the story is true, I'm sure it's strategic on Trump's part rather than him truly standing by his beliefs about 3rd parties from 2000, which served his interests at the time, but from Trump's standpoint it makes all the sense in the world. Hillary wants a 1 on 1 debate with Trump and is generally the favorite in the election, but the debate can't be held if Trump refuses and they'd have reason to believe he would since he skipped the Iowa debate protesting Megyn Kelly. Out of the two of them, it'd likely help Trump more if neither gets enough electoral votes because the Republican House would decide, plus, Trump insisting on 3rd party inclusion only adds to his anti-establishment, populist credibility as the majority of voters want Johnson in the debates. it also prevents Trump from looking like a hypocrite based on his past statements made when he was a member of the Reform Party. Meanwhile, if Clinton objects, it makes her look even more like the establishment villain. Finally, most polls have shown Johnson taking slightly more votes from Clinton.

Regardless of what happens, Trump's campaign has been a net positive. I'm still not thrilled because I believe it hurt Rand, but he has shaken things up and I do support the idea of being represented by people who aren't career politicians.

69360
09-07-2016, 02:57 PM
When is the cut off date for the presidential debate polling? I think GJ is not going to make it, unfortunately. He really needs this first debate.

It's the middle of next month for this one. He's not going to make it. But they are taking each one individually, so if he rises he could make the second or third theoretically.



Yep! I saw that one.
Donald Trump Will Not Debate Hillary, if Gary Johnson not Allowed to Participate (http://www.smobserved.com/story/2016/09/04/news/donald-trump-will-not-debate-hillary-if-gary-johnson-not-allowed-to-participate/1894.html)

Interesting. I'd like to see that from a reputable news source before I get excited about it.

Aratus
09-07-2016, 03:02 PM
There are several dozen scenarios where the election goes to a vote in the House of Representatives. Something like the below could play out, based on the poll numbers above.

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/b1Zpk.png

the debates are pivotal. the above map is how Trump can battle back. we are inside the two month sprint.

undergroundrr
09-07-2016, 03:29 PM
If Gary Johnson and Jill Stein appear in the debates due to trump's insistence, I will have to accept that something good came out of the trump candidacy.

RJ Liberty
09-07-2016, 10:16 PM
Interesting. I'd like to see that from a reputable news source before I get excited about it.

Nevermind. Trump's already reversed himself (http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/09/06/donald-trump-says-he-will-debate-was-this-a-negotiating-tactic/) on the issue of the debates. Go figure. :rolleyes:

NorthCarolinaLiberty
09-08-2016, 07:10 PM
CNN has him at seven percent this week...



You're always good with these numbers, ZippyJuan. How about you though? Will you be voting for Clinton? Or will you be like some and stick with The Bern? How about your other liberal and progressive friends? What's the pulse with you guys? Just wondering. Thanks!

RJ Liberty
09-08-2016, 10:04 PM
A new poll (https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2376) from Quinnipiac, announced today, has similar numbers to the WaPo/SurveyMonkey poll, for the states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Only those four states were polled.

North Carolina -- Johnson: 15% (WP/SM had 10%)
Ohio -- Johnson: 14% (WP/SM had 13%)
Pennsylvania -- Johnson: 9% (WP/SM had 12%)
Florida -- Johnson: 8% (WP/SM had 10%)

CPUd
09-08-2016, 10:45 PM
A new poll (https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2376) from Quinnipiac, announced today, has similar numbers to the WaPo/SurveyMonkey poll, for the states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Only those four states were polled.

North Carolina -- Johnson: 15% (WP/SM had 10%)
Ohio -- Johnson: 14% (WP/SM had 13%)
Pennsylvania -- Johnson: 9% (WP/SM had 12%)
Florida -- Johnson: 8% (WP/SM had 10%)

He's taking most of his support from Clinton, some from Trump and some from the pool of undecideds.

RJ Liberty
09-09-2016, 09:30 PM
The Google Consumer Survey poll of August 17th through the 23rd is a little old now, but the numbers in that poll confirm that the WaPo/SurveyMonkey poll is not the first state poll to record Johnson at or above 20% in New Mexico. The sample voter size in the GCS poll is a little suspect for me; polling just 62 people in North Dakota doesn't cut it, IMO. Especially compared to the huge samples taken in the WaPo/SM poll. But the GCS poll does seem to show how Gary got from polling fairly well in 17 states to polling alongside Clump in several states.

At that rate of growth, Johnson would take an electorate in Maine, one in Nebraska, and take several more states: New Mexico, Alaska, Idaho, Utah, and the Dakotas.

Google Consumer Survey (8/17-8/23):



State
Sample
Johnson
Clinton
Trump


New Mexico
201
20%
42%
25%


Hawaii
87
15%
43%
22%


North Dakota
62
15%
21%
42%


Alaska
87
14%
30%
38%


Utah
270
13%
22%
32%


Maine
105
13%
36%
32%


Idaho
164
13%
26%
36%


South Dakota
72
13%
33%
26%


Oklahoma
245
12%
24%
42%


Wyoming
78
12%
26%
42%


Virginia
599
11%
36%
29%


Colorado
512
11%
40%
24%


Arizona
530
11%
35%
27%


Nebraska
174
11%
25%
38%


Rhode Island
73
11%
44%
18%


California
1,668
10%
41%
28%


Washington
578
10%
43%
24%


Arkansas
196
10%
28%
40%


Montana
118
10%
36%
28%


Delaware
101
10%
36%
23%


Vermont
87
10%
43%
11%


Indiana
631
10%
32%
36%