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View Full Version : Rethinking NH strategy; Comparatively we're not doing so great there




mathamagician
12-08-2007, 02:40 PM
Ron Paul's campaign is doing really really well. However it seems like New Hampshire has gotten the most attention and effort from us and the official campaign but seems to be showing the least amount of return on that effort. There's a poll showing Paul at 8% in Iowa now which is the same as the 8% in New Hampshire. Paul is at 6% in South Carolina without even really trying there and we're 5-7% countrywide.

So my question is whether we should focus more on Iowa (who's format favors us strongly) and/or perhaps Nevada and Wyoming and less on New Hampshire? Conventional wisdom tells us to focus on the 'live free or die' state but I think that we need reassess things every so often and see where we are making progress. Just speculating about why we aren't making too much progress there, I wonder if New Hampshire is really still the 'live free or die' state with all the Boston people that have moved in there recently. Also the Free State Project may have soured the mouths of some of the population to the message of liberty.

jd603
12-08-2007, 02:41 PM
Stay focussed, the polls are a total sham in most cases. Ie, giuliani does not have a lot of support in NH, yet he's in good standing in the polls.



Ron Paul's campaign is doing really really well. However it seems like New Hampshire has gotten the most attention and effort from us and the official campaign but seems to be showing the least amount of return on that effort. There's a poll showing Paul at 8% in Iowa now which is the same as the 8% in New Hampshire. Paul is at 6% in South Carolina without even really trying there and we're 5-7% countrywide.

So my question is whether we should focus more on Iowa (who's format favors us strongly) and/or perhaps Nevada and Wyoming and less on New Hampshire? Conventional wisdom tells us to focus on the 'live free or die' state but I think that we need reassess things every so often and see where we are making progress. Just speculating about why we aren't making too much progress there, I wonder if New Hampshire is really still the 'live free or die' state with all the Boston people that have moved in there recently. Also the Free State Project may have soured the mouths of some of the population to the message of liberty.

quickmike
12-08-2007, 02:44 PM
Time and time again, some of you miss the point that these polls(cough, cough........... bullshit) only make calls to a list of people who voted for Bush in 2004. It doesnt represent independants, democrats who switched party, people who have never voted before and republicans who didnt vote at all last time.

kylejack
12-08-2007, 02:46 PM
8% in Iowa is an outlier. The polls also don't tell the whole story, because the grassroots libertarian effort is much much stronger in New Hampshire. Ron Paul has 3 campaign offices in South Carolina, has visited several times and is running radio ads.

New Hampshire is critical. If there is one state where we are most likely to take first place, it is New Hampshire. Its small, so its cheap to advertise there, and it already has a very independent nature. To think that there could be a state in the Northeast where there are no seatbelt laws, where the right to keep and bear arms is infringed upon so little, where state legislators make $100 a year, where there isn't an income tax, isn't a sales tax, and where the state rejects a bribe from the federal government to implement RealID....its just absurd. There's a million reasons why NH should have turned to statism...but it hasn't. New Hampshire is fertile ground, which is why we've polled as high as 9% there, and consistently poll 7-8%. Meanwhile, in Jesusland Iowa, we poll 4-6%.

Goldwater Conservative
12-08-2007, 02:48 PM
I see what you mean, but I think even if the polls are accurate (more questionable for a candidate like Paul than any in a long time) they still understate the importance of turnout, which favors Paul and could mean the difference between lagging Giuliani/McCain 8-16 in the polls but matching or beating them on election day.

Primbs
12-08-2007, 02:55 PM
All three are important. We should be able to spend millions in each state.

Jwaksman
12-08-2007, 02:55 PM
Time and time again, some of you miss the point that these polls(cough, cough........... bullshit) only make calls to a list of people who voted for Bush in 2004. It doesnt represent independants, democrats who switched party, people who have never voted before and republicans who didnt vote at all last time.




I hope you're being facetious, because it has been explained 1000 times on these boards that this is not true. The pollsters are trying their best to estimate the '08 results, and they aren't stupid enough to think that there won't be any new voters. For example, the most recent poll out of Iowa published the results of "have you voted in a caucus before", and 49% of those polled said that they hadn't. So, please, can we never hear this conspiracy theory again?

kylejack
12-08-2007, 02:57 PM
I hope you're being facetious, because it has been explained 1000 times on these boards that this is not true. The pollsters are trying their best to estimate the '08 results, and they aren't stupid enough to think that there won't be any new voters. For example, the most recent poll out of Iowa published the results of "have you voted in a caucus before", and 49% of those polled said that they hadn't. So, please, can we never hear this conspiracy theory again?
Fat chance of that.

walt
12-08-2007, 02:57 PM
8% in Iowa is an outlier. The polls also don't tell the whole story, because the grassroots libertarian effort is much much stronger in New Hampshire. Ron Paul has 3 campaign offices in South Carolina, has visited several times and is running radio ads.

New Hampshire is critical. If there is one state where we are most likely to take first place, it is New Hampshire. Its small, so its cheap to advertise there, and it already has a very independent nature. To think that there could be a state in the Northeast where there are no seatbelt laws, where the right to keep and bear arms is infringed upon so little, where state legislators make $100 a year, where there isn't an income tax, isn't a sales tax, and where the state rejects a bribe from the federal government to implement RealID....its just absurd. There's a million reasons why NH should have turned to statism...but it hasn't. New Hampshire is fertile ground, which is why we've polled as high as 9% there, and consistently poll 7-8%. Meanwhile, in Jesusland Iowa, we poll 4-6%.

1/3 of the voters in NH are independent and switch the day of the primary, this group is heavy Ron Paul, they are not counted as likely Republican voters.

I'm not at all worried about NH, I'm worried about Iowa (because RP won't pander), Michigan (where we don't have an office), NV, SC and Florida (which is where the social security card will get played by the neocons)

bulloncoins
12-08-2007, 02:58 PM
There is a lot of pac money and such pouring in to go after the front runners. In this case, Dr. Paul is not even on their radar screens because they have been told by the national media over and over that Dr. Paul is no threat.

And lucky for us they believe it. When they finish tearing each other a new one, our man is going to shine like no tomorrow. Just wait and see.

partypooper
12-08-2007, 03:02 PM
i had the same thought. everybody keeps trumpeting NH but, though we might be doing somewhat better there than elsewhere, the difference is nowhere as big as i expected.



New Hampshire is critical. If there is one state where we are most likely to take first place, it is New Hampshire. Its small, so its cheap to advertise there

if it's cheap for us, it is also cheap for everybody else. given that we are doing well in terms of money it might as well be that have an advantage in states where it is expensive to advertise.


and it already has a very independent nature. To think that there could be a state in the Northeast where there are no seatbelt laws, where the right to keep and bear arms is infringed upon so little, where state legislators make $100 a year, where there isn't an income tax, isn't a sales tax, and where the state rejects a bribe from the federal government to implement RealID....its just absurd.

those are all a priori arguments - arguments that have been repeated over and over again about why dr paul must do better there than elsewhere. yet, when you look at the actual numbers, the difference is underwhelming. yes, he polls a little better in NH - but we are talking about 2-3% difference, not about 20% difference.

fortilite
12-08-2007, 03:05 PM
The NH strategy is going great, we are headed for victory. We just need to GET OUT THE VOTE.

kylejack
12-08-2007, 03:08 PM
if it's cheap for us, it is also cheap for everybody else. given that we are doing well in terms of money it might as well be that have an advantage in states where it is expensive to advertise.
Not really, because overall, we're way behind on fundraising. Romney is leading New Hampshire because he's been bombarding them with advertising from Day One.


those are all a priori arguments - arguments that have been repeated over and over again about why dr paul must do better there than elsewhere. yet, when you look at the actual numbers, the difference is underwhelming. yes, he polls a little better in NH - but we are talking about 2-3% difference, not about 20% difference.
Iowa is not a very competitive state. 8% in New Hampshire is far more significant than 6% in Iowa, because Iowa is essentially a two man race. New Hampshire is a more crowded field. Furthermore, advertising in New Hampshire really just began within the past couple months. The small size of New Hampshire also makes it easier to canvass.

kevinblack
12-08-2007, 03:11 PM
In my opinion:

New Hampshire takes their role in "picking the next President" very seriously. They may like what Ron Paul stands for but if they don't think he will win the nomination they may be skeptical of voting for him. It is crucial that we continue to canvas this state, but we must prove in Iowa that Ron Paul is an electable nominee.

tremendoustie
12-08-2007, 03:12 PM
8% in Iowa is an outlier. The polls also don't tell the whole story, because the grassroots libertarian effort is much much stronger in New Hampshire. Ron Paul has 3 campaign offices in South Carolina, has visited several times and is running radio ads.

New Hampshire is critical. If there is one state where we are most likely to take first place, it is New Hampshire. Its small, so its cheap to advertise there, and it already has a very independent nature. To think that there could be a state in the Northeast where there are no seatbelt laws, where the right to keep and bear arms is infringed upon so little, where state legislators make $100 a year, where there isn't an income tax, isn't a sales tax, and where the state rejects a bribe from the federal government to implement RealID....its just absurd. There's a million reasons why NH should have turned to statism...but it hasn't. New Hampshire is fertile ground, which is why we've polled as high as 9% there, and consistently poll 7-8%. Meanwhile, in Jesusland Iowa, we poll 4-6%.

I love NH :)

P.S.
I just noticed your last line. Please don't stereotype Christians as statists, k?

brumans
12-08-2007, 03:15 PM
December 16th will be the turning point and may be our chance for victory.. we can't afford to f*** up.. we need at least a 5 million day.

DJ RP
12-08-2007, 03:15 PM
Is it true that there is no income tax in New Hampshire?!?!?!?! What were Ed And Elaine Brown doing then??? It this one of those federal laws supercedes local laws thing???

Excuse my ignorance I'm not from America.

hawkeyenick
12-08-2007, 03:15 PM
I love NH :)

P.S.
I just noticed your last line. Please don't stereotype Christians as statists, k?

They are statistics, just like everyone else. No affirmative action on these boards

and just fyi, Iowa isn't Jesusland, that's Kansas territory!

Shaun
12-08-2007, 03:17 PM
Guys; A couple of things to consider, first up the groups who are taking these polls are putting their future revenue on the line with the predicitions they make, so we have to understand that they more than anyone are trying to be accurate. They look like complete idiots if their predictions are always turned upside down. Next, these polls, four weeks out are not even close to the central issue; what's that? TURNOUT on the night, in IOWA we think it's going to be low, in NH, well we'll see. Turnout is the issue for us. 8% for Paul in Iowa could be worth double that because our people will go out and vote.
Next; so much is unpredicatable between now and voting night, however, as a person who has lived and died based on my marketing advice, I know this and I know it well; Marketing, when you throw out all the noise and distraction is all about a couple of things; the first is a UNIQUE message and the second is TRUST in the brand. The point that sustains my belief in a Ron Paul shock in Feb (and that's when it will happen, on Super Tuesday..) is that he has the only UNIQUE message on the GOP side and when you combine that with a field that is full of skeletons in their not so clean cupboards you end up with a logrithmic rising graph that is on an a trajectory for victory...
Dec 16th is crucial. If we get the 10m on that day our man goes under the spotlight. I think he'll look very good in it compared to the other GOP choices..
Time will tell.

brumans
12-08-2007, 03:18 PM
Is it true that there is no income tax in New Hampshire?!?!?!?! What were Ed And Elaine Brown doing then??? It this one of those federal laws supercedes local laws thing???

Excuse my ignorance I'm not from America.

There is no state income tax. I do believe there still if a federal income tax.

skinzterpswizfan
12-08-2007, 03:21 PM
Guys; A couple of things to consider, first up the groups who are taking these polls are putting their future revenue on the line with the predicitions they make, so we have to understand that they more than anyone are trying to be accurate. They look like complete idiots if their predictions are always turned upside down.

Can we get something like this stickied somewhere? It's so annoying to see everyone convinced that these polls are intentionally biased against Paul. Yeah, they may not end up being accurate but the pollsters for the most part are trying in every way to be as right as possible.

kylejack
12-08-2007, 03:22 PM
Any place that Pat Robertson wins a caucus in, and any place where a former preacher is the front-runner...I call that place Jesusland.

nbhadja
12-08-2007, 03:23 PM
POLLS ARE BS AND DO NOT MATTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!

brumans
12-08-2007, 03:25 PM
POLLS ARE BS AND DO NOT MATTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You wouldn't be saying that if Ron Paul was winning in the polls. I agree the polls are underestimating Ron Paul's support, but polls are important because it's the #1 thing the media bases their coverage on.

jgmaynard
12-08-2007, 03:33 PM
Just speculating about why we aren't making too much progress there, I wonder if New Hampshire is really still the 'live free or die' state with all the Boston people that have moved in there recently. Also the Free State Project may have soured the mouths of some of the population to the message of liberty.

We absolutely are still the LFoD state - in just the last year, our activists have elected an FSP member to the state house, fought the Feds to a standstill on REAL-ID, and nearly decriminalized up to five pounds of marijuana or 25 plants per person. :) Lots more too.


In my opinion:

New Hampshire takes their role in "picking the next President" very seriously. They may like what Ron Paul stands for but if they don't think he will win the nomination they may be skeptical of voting for him. It is crucial that we continue to canvas this state, but we must prove in Iowa that Ron Paul is an electable nominee.

Honestly, I haven't heard ANYONE say "he can't win" here since 11/5. There IS a lot of work left to be done, but it's already just a matter of turnout.


Is it true that there is no income tax in New Hampshire?!?!?!?! What were Ed And Elaine Brown doing then??? It this one of those federal laws supercedes local laws thing???

Excuse my ignorance I'm not from America.

There is a Federal Tax here, and many states have either an additional income tax, a sales tax, or both. NH is the only state that has no additional tax upon the Federal Income Tax.

JM

Goldwater Conservative
12-08-2007, 03:35 PM
You wouldn't be saying that if Ron Paul was winning in the polls. I agree the polls are underestimating Ron Paul's support, but polls are important because it's the #1 thing the media bases their coverage on.

I sure as hell would. While I don't think the polls are rigged, I do doubt how reliable they can be (even after taking numerous stat courses, I've seen enough polls be wide off that I don't put any faith in them), especially because I think they do more to affect how people vote than they reflect how people want to or intend to vote. Also, they don't factor in something like turnout, which I think is to our clear advantage.

Regardless of who's "winning," polls are bullshit.

Shink
12-08-2007, 03:39 PM
They are statistics, just like everyone else. No affirmative action on these boards

and just fyi, Iowa isn't Jesusland, that's Kansas territory!

Uh...I LIVE HERE...and YES it is. My town is mostly gas stations and churches. Sunday traffic is nonexistent aside from the "to and from church" times.

nbhadja
12-08-2007, 03:43 PM
You wouldn't be saying that if Ron Paul was winning in the polls. I agree the polls are underestimating Ron Paul's support, but polls are important because it's the #1 thing the media bases their coverage on.

Ya I would. I would only take them seriously if they polled all sorts of voters, not the BS "likely republicans" criteria they use.

I used to be concerned that when the news media shows so and so as number #1 in the polls and RP at the bottom, it would harm the campaign. Instead every neocon they have tried to artificially promote blew up in their faces when they never picked up actual momentum. Huckabee will soon become just another media buildup failure like the rest of them. Meanwhile RP's support keeps growing despite "low" poll numbers.

You can tell the media is on their last resort fake buildup, as they are trying to promote a man that freed a rapist who went on to murder a women, a man that fights for illegal immigrants (even more than the other neocons who also do that), is rightfully nicknamed tax hike mike, and wants to isolate people with HIV from the rest of the population.

partypooper
12-08-2007, 03:44 PM
Not really, because overall, we're way behind on fundraising. Romney is leading New Hampshire because he's been bombarding them with advertising from Day One.

still, comparatively speaking, money is our forte - so, comparatively speaking (compared to mccain and huckabee, for example) it is not obvious to me that cheap states favor us. i am not saying that we are at a disadvantage at NH - just that i don't see this big advantage that NH is supposed to be.


Iowa is not a very competitive state. 8% in New Hampshire is far more significant than 6% in Iowa, because Iowa is essentially a two man race. New Hampshire is a more crowded field. Furthermore, advertising in New Hampshire really just began within the past couple months. The small size of New Hampshire also makes it easier to canvass.

if iowa is less competitive than NH that might be a reason to invest there, not to ignore it. as far as i can tell, 3rd place in iowa is within reach and even 2nd place is not out of question. on the other hand, our chances in NH are approximately the same. i don't see how we can catch romney in NH any more than i see how we can catch huckabee in iowa. plus, iowa gives more delegates.

the point here is that disproportionate emphasis in NH is not yet paying any dividends. everything you say about live free or die state etc. makes sense - yet, when you look at the actual results they are just not that impressive.

Trigonx
12-08-2007, 03:45 PM
F#$K you FRANK!!!!!

Cardinal Red
12-08-2007, 04:20 PM
People who advance them will get immediately dismissed and labeled as ignorant by anybody who knows how polling is actually done. There's no conspiracy out there in the polling community against RP-- If it's a nonpartisan pollster not working on behalf of a campaign, believe me , they are just trying to get it right. it's true that RP is an exceptionally difficult candidate to poll for, largely because of his diverse group of potential supporters, many of whom have not voted previously. He's one of the few guys out there who could be polling at 8% while he is really at 15% but he's not going to be at 25% if he's polling at 8% --- and we have to operate under the assumption that polling number are accurate. Underpromise and overdeliver-- Let everyone think we are at 6-8% and then claim victory and momentum when we are comfortably in double digits on election day.

I do worry also that we are overinvesting in NH and underinvesting in Iowa-- a caucus format is very favorable to our campaign because it rewards hardcore support (which RP has) and with Giuliani and McCain essentially writing Iowa off and Thompson in free-fall, there is a very real possiblity for a third place finish (or maybe better) which would give us HUGE momentum coming into NH.

ItsTime
12-08-2007, 04:23 PM
Ron Paul is in second place among indies in New Hampshire with 27%

ItsTime
12-08-2007, 04:24 PM
Under investing in Iowa? He has 150 supporters going there right now all paid for on Ron Pauls dime.


People who advance them will get immediately dismissed and labeled as ignorant by anybody who knows how polling is actually done. There's no conspiracy out there in the polling community against RP-- If it's a nonpartisan pollster not working on behalf of a campaign, believe me , they are just trying to get it right. it's true that RP is an exceptionally difficult candidate to poll for, largely because of his diverse group of potential supporters, many of whom have not voted previously. He's one of the few guys out there who could be polling at 8% while he is really at 15% but he's not going to be at 25% if he's polling at 8% --- and we have to operate under the assumption that polling number are accurate. Underpromise and overdeliver-- Let everyone think we are at 6-8% and then claim victory and momentum when we are comfortably in double digits on election day.

I do worry also that we are overinvesting in NH and underinvesting in Iowa-- a caucus format is very favorable to our campaign because it rewards hardcore support (which RP has) and with Giuliani and McCain essentially writing Iowa off and Thompson in free-fall, there is a very real possiblity for a third place finish (or maybe better) which would give us HUGE momentum coming into NH.

daviddee
12-08-2007, 04:37 PM
...

OferNave
12-08-2007, 04:40 PM
I left NH 10 years ago for Florida.

Come back!

Cardinal Red
12-08-2007, 04:42 PM
Under investing in Iowa? He has 150 supporters going there right now all paid for on Ron Pauls dime.


The campaign has not invested nearly as much in Iowa field offices (for a long time I believe it had just 1) or advertising-- nor has it put a huge staff on the ground (although by all accounts, we are lucky to have Drew Ivers as our chairman). Most importantly, RP has not been "on the ground" in Iowa nearly as much as have other campaigns that are contesting the state-- Iowa caucus voters are a just a small number of people and they expect to be able to meet their canddiates in person.

I hope the current de-emphais on Iowa is just rhetorical so we can dimsiss a poor performance there if we have one. We are ideally positioned to beat some of the media-anoited first tier candidates there. If we beat none, we have a hard time maintaining credibility going into NH-- if we beat one we can at least show we are serious, If we beat two (very possible) then even the MSM will have to acknowledge RP as a first tier candidate, if we beat three or more, we will be riding a freight train of momentum going into NH, and we will see our numbers really rise there.

fortilite
12-08-2007, 04:44 PM
We're only halfway through our goal in the mail writing campaign, let's get cracking! Less finger pointing and armchair quarterbacking, more writing!

http://www.rp-supporters.com/letters.html

Leslie Webb
12-08-2007, 05:09 PM
Can the grassroots finance a poll in NH? We can canvas everybody but die-hard Democrats. We need to know where we stand. Are we really at 8%, 15%, or 25%? What parts of NH are we weak in? What issue would win for us? How much will strong turnover help us? etc.

I don 't know if the MSM polls are biased or not. I would trust a poll done by the Ron Paul grassroots. Such a poll would be without the statistical adjustment bells and whistles of the MSM polls, adjustments that, as I understand them, tend to discount the results of previously low polling candidates and improve the results of previously high polling candidates.

fortilite
12-08-2007, 05:19 PM
Who cares about polls! Stop worrying about polls and canvass, write letters, etc. Enough with the polls! The only accurate poll is an exit poll. We'll figure out where we stand when election day arrives.

We still have 250k letters to write, so for the love of America let's get cracking. If we can get 10k of those extra out to the polls that's HUGE.

mathamagician
12-08-2007, 05:22 PM
I agree that probably RP support is understated in polls but that doesn't mean they're meaningless. What we should be looking for it change in the number which will help us gage if his support is going up or down. I think there is very slim chance we won't get at least 3rd in Iowa due to our turnout power. Thinking about a possible blood war between Romney and Huck and we might have a shot at first, the other option for first is if there's a big snow storm.

Just Come Home
12-08-2007, 05:23 PM
The Paul campaign is about to do a full court press in Iowa...

Cardinal Red
12-08-2007, 05:28 PM
The Paul campaign is about to do a full court press in Iowa...

What specific things are the campaign doing?

LibertyEagle
12-08-2007, 05:31 PM
Any place that Pat Robertson wins a caucus in, and any place where a former preacher is the front-runner...I call that place Jesusland.

Why do you keep saying this stuff? Do you want to drive Christians away from this campaign? How about Dr. Paul and Carol? Because they are Christians too, you know?

Please engage your brain.

LibertyEagle
12-08-2007, 05:32 PM
The Paul campaign is about to do a full court press in Iowa...

I'll believe it, when I see it.

fortilite
12-08-2007, 05:33 PM
If you feel we are not doing enough in Iowa, remember that there are still 250k mail addresses waiting to be distributed. It's easy to point fingers, but that doesn't do anything. Get to work, deadline is soon.

LibertyEagle
12-08-2007, 05:35 PM
Ron Paul is in second place among indies in New Hampshire with 27%

Who is first?

AlexMerced
12-08-2007, 05:38 PM
Things have been going to plan

kylejack
12-08-2007, 05:40 PM
Who is first?

Romney has us edged out. He's been carpet-bombing them with advertising, so our advertising should be combating that.

kill the banks
12-08-2007, 05:44 PM
Ron Paul's campaign is doing really really well. However it seems like New Hampshire has gotten the most attention and effort from us and the official campaign but seems to be showing the least amount of return on that effort. There's a poll showing Paul at 8% in Iowa now which is the same as the 8% in New Hampshire. Paul is at 6% in South Carolina without even really trying there and we're 5-7% countrywide.

So my question is whether we should focus more on Iowa (who's format favors us strongly) and/or perhaps Nevada and Wyoming and less on New Hampshire? Conventional wisdom tells us to focus on the 'live free or die' state but I think that we need reassess things every so often and see where we are making progress. Just speculating about why we aren't making too much progress there, I wonder if New Hampshire is really still the 'live free or die' state with all the Boston people that have moved in there recently. Also the Free State Project may have soured the mouths of some of the population to the message of liberty.

says who ... ? the MSM .... this demonstrates the mind control they deliver ... break away from the tube and at least base your intelligence on real numbers that perhaps an independent poll might indicate ... one that seeks more than the MSM have accomplished by ridiculing , laughing and under minding / attacking our candidate in debates to the polls we do win

our support is strong and turn out is key [ historically turn out is low ]
think again ~ rise above their tactics & deception imo

kill the banks

partypooper
12-08-2007, 05:50 PM
says who ... ? the MSM .... this demonstrates the mind control they deliver ... break away from the tube and at least base your intelligence on real numbers that perhaps an independent poll might indicate ...

regardless of the validity and significance of the polling, proponents of NH first strategy still need to explain why is the difference between NH and iowa so small if NH is so much more receptive for dr paul's message.

fortilite
12-08-2007, 05:51 PM
regardless of the validity and significance of the polling, proponents of NH first strategy still need to explain why is the difference between NH and iowa so small if NH is so much more receptive for dr paul's message.

So I take it you have been writing mails to Iowa?

partypooper
12-08-2007, 05:54 PM
actually, yes.

fortilite
12-08-2007, 05:56 PM
Excellent, because we still have a lot more to go. Maybe when we finish we can have the high ground to criticize the campaign on not being complete with their tasks.

kylejack
12-08-2007, 06:00 PM
regardless of the validity and significance of the polling, proponents of NH first strategy still need to explain why is the difference between NH and iowa so small if NH is so much more receptive for dr paul's message.
Both are getting significant support from the grassroots and official campaign. Why does one have to be "first"? I believe NH will be more receptive, so that's where I'm focusing my efforts. If you think Iowa is more receptive, more power to you. Nobody has to prove anything to you, because you are your own person and can promote Ron Paul however you want.

partypooper
12-08-2007, 06:36 PM
that goes without saying. everybody is free to do as they wish - including the campaign.

i find your arguments in favor of NH persuasive in principle - and two months ago i thought that NH was a much better shot. but right now i am disappointed with NH - i don't see its numbers raising any faster than in iowa, nevada or SC.

hawkeyenick
12-08-2007, 06:39 PM
that goes without saying. everybody is free to do as they wish - including the campaign.

i find your arguments in favor of NH persuasive in principle - and two months ago i thought that NH was a much better shot. but right now i am disappointed with NH - i don't see its numbers raising any faster than in iowa, nevada or SC.

That's because they don't include independants and democrats, we also have what I like to call "the home court advantage". Anytime and anywhere there is a vote for Dr. Paul, we show up in record percentages...our turnout is always highest.

kylejack
12-08-2007, 06:42 PM
that goes without saying. everybody is free to do as they wish - including the campaign.

i find your arguments in favor of NH persuasive in principle - and two months ago i thought that NH was a much better shot. but right now i am disappointed with NH - i don't see its numbers raising any faster than in iowa, nevada or SC.

27% of independents is huge. Hopefully Hillary will crush everyone in Iowa so that independents move over to vote for Ron Paul. The 8% in New Hampshire is predicated on the fact that the pollsters think most independents will vote in the Democrat primary. If that premise is false, our numbers could be much much higher. Independents is what won NH for McCain in 2000.

mathamagician
12-08-2007, 10:08 PM
I'm just thinking that not many people have been spending in Nevada and Wyoming. Both are before super Tuesday, both are in the libertarian heartland of the inner-mountain west. As previously stated Romney has dumped tons of money into New Hampshire and it's not unreasonable to assume a similar magnitude of money/effort will be required to push the people back to another candidate. Plus they value a lot of face-to-face candidate time and Ron Paul simply doesn't have enough time left to make up this difference. Also all the ad time is booked up with politics already and the competitiveness probably makes ads very expensive.

If we look ahead and think about Nevada and Wyoming, we could probably make a big impact with little effort.

If Ron Paul does well in Iowa and NH but doesn't win but goes on to win Nevada and Wyoming then he would have a decent shot on Super Tuesday.

Iowa - Huckabee
New Hampshire - Romney
Michigan - Romney
South Carolina - Huckabee
Wyoming - Paul
Nevada - Paul
Florida - Guliani

So going into super Tuesday it's a 4 man race. McCain is out, much of his support could go to Paul. Thompson is out and most of his suport would go to Huckabee.
Tancredo and Hunter are out and their a decent amount could go for Paul.

mathamagician
12-09-2007, 12:49 PM
says who ... ? the MSM .... this demonstrates the mind control they deliver ... break away from the tube and at least base your intelligence on real numbers that perhaps an independent poll might indicate

These comments are not constructive. I've explained my reasons but you choose to make up your own reasons for my conclusion. Namely that I'm brainwashed by the media (FYI I don't watch TV.... ever.... I don't even have basic cable I have an antennae). So I don't think comments like this help us. Try to focus on the argument and not the person.

my argument:

All the extra effort put into New Hampshire has yielded little extra showing in the polls. Therefore maybe we should focus more resources elsewhere.


I think if we could outright win Nevada and Wyoming and have a strong showing in the first two then we could go into super Tuesday with a lot of money and will have outlasted McCain, Thompson, Tancredo, and Hunter.

mathamagician
12-09-2007, 12:57 PM
If you feel we are not doing enough in Iowa, remember that there are still 250k mail addresses waiting to be distributed. It's easy to point fingers, but that doesn't do anything. Get to work, deadline is soon.

I downloaded the 2004 Iowa primary turnout for each county and then merged that onto the population of each county and then put each county into a turnout decile (score from 1 to 10) and merged that onto a zip code to county mapping yeilding a turnout score for each zipcode. There was a republican turnout score and an overall turnout score. I then sent this to the people doing the Iowa letter writing campaign suggesting that we target the zip codes with the highest turnouts first in the list. So I feel like I have contributed to this project. I really think there is benefit to constructive analysis of how effective our efforts have been thus far.

jgmaynard
12-09-2007, 01:07 PM
Independents is what won NH for McCain in 2000.

True. We Inds in NH make up 44% of the electorate. We basically decide every election in this state. :)

As I've said many times, I'm 39 and I've been involved with politics here since I was a kid, tellling every adult I knew to vote for Reagan.

Some NH truthisms: :)

Most Inds do not REALLY come to a firm conclusion until just a couple weeks or even days before the election. This largely negates polls taken in the state. For an example of this, search on the forums here for: The Lesson of Bruce Keough.

Second, the reason that most voters, especially Inds don't make up their minds until then is because we are still listening to candidates, having discussions with our family, friends, etc., and even talking with supporters of other candidates with whom we strongly disagree. That happens here - we have two elections a year in the state including (in our towns, not cities), old-fashioned New England Town Meetings straight out of Norman Rockwell. Say what you will about direct democracy, but it's effect on the psyche of a culture produces a certain zeitgeist that can't be ignored. :D

Romney has greater name recognition, there's still some love for McCain here for his local politicing (which Ron HAS been doing here, it just doesn't get listed on the website), but even polling at around 10% (Fox said " about 11-12%, then around 10%), with everyone else except Romney at 20% or lower, then the question once again becomes: What of the polls are right? (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=45051)

JM

mathamagician
12-09-2007, 10:15 PM
....
Romney has greater name recognition, there's still some love for McCain here for his local politicing (which Ron HAS been doing here, it just doesn't get listed on the website), but even polling at around 10% (Fox said " about 11-12%, then around 10%), with everyone else except Romney at 20% or lower...


What poll has him at 10%? If you know please link it.

Pete Kay
12-09-2007, 10:44 PM
Ron Paul is making some big mistakes in New Hampshire. His biggest mistake is not spending enough time there. People of New Hampshire expect candidates to visit there often. They take there role as first in the nation primary very seriously and expect the candidates to take it even more seriously. If Ron Paul wants to wn in New Hampshire he needs to basically move there for a monh before the primary and visit every city and town that he can.

BillyBeer
12-09-2007, 10:54 PM
Any place that Pat Robertson wins a caucus in, and any place where a former preacher is the front-runner...I call that place Jesusland.

LMAO...Its true, Iowa is flat and full of corn and Bible thumpers...BUT Huckster and Romney are gonna eat other alive. That IA paper put us in third in the power rankings. This campaign can actually get a lot of momentum from IA heading into NH.

Duckman
12-09-2007, 11:00 PM
I personally don't think we should be throwing around terms like "Jesusland" and I say that as an atheist.

I'm both surprised and not suprised that you picked Florida as one of the best places to live for freedom. I've always felt that Florida was a "well run" state but I never felt this state was particularly libertarian except maybe in the keys. (Conch Republic?)

Question_Authority
12-09-2007, 11:15 PM
Ron Paul is making some big mistakes in New Hampshire. His biggest mistake is not spending enough time there. People of New Hampshire expect candidates to visit there often. They take there role as first in the nation primary very seriously and expect the candidates to take it even more seriously. If Ron Paul wants to wn in New Hampshire he needs to basically move there for a monh before the primary and visit every city and town that he can.

I was just about to say the same thing. If anyone thinks the campaign has spent too much time in NH , or whatever, they are sadly mistaken. Paul comes here once every 6 weeks MAYBE (since March).

They do not even post their calendar for NH until a day before he comes and makes little fanfare. We supporters have had to wait til the last minute to find out where he might be.

I am continually stunned by the campaign's lack of understanding of NH campaigning.

I believe this is due to their lack of experience in running a national campaign, since all they have ever done for Paul is get him elected in the 14th district of TX.

When I emailed the campaign to give feedback about this, I got a defensive note back about how "hundreds of volunteers are coming to NH and they are spending a lot on TV and radio".

They do not understand NH. Very sad too, because he could have won here IMO.

mathamagician
12-10-2007, 08:36 PM
They do not understand NH. Very sad too, because he could have won here IMO.

I'm going to make a post in the 'Campaign Suggestion Box' thread suggesting he spend more time there (I think the problem is that he wants to be in DC to vote on important bills and is conflicted about how to spend his time). Everyone who agree come and post something in agreement (and of course if you disagree you're welcome to post a disagreement). I'll also shoot an email off to the official campaign.

Anyway Rasmussen has Paul at 8% in NH and has him at 7% in Michigan :/
I still think it's going to be Tea Party and Iowa to get Paul to breakout and all of efforts + Momentum allow us to do really well in New Hampshire.

ItsTime
12-10-2007, 08:39 PM
Ron Paul 21% among INDIES in New Hampshire

propanes
12-11-2007, 06:11 AM
edit

Eric21ND
12-11-2007, 08:53 AM
Spend more time in NH. If we can't win there what the hell are we doing??