Video: Ron Paul will win!

[voytechs]

A pretty simple, but convincing video, easy to watch too and listen:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFAJby9BYu0




Request for admins: if you have a video icon for a smiley, you could install for new threads, this way we could mark them as video threads with a smiley.

[Austin]

I personally enjoyed it, but a lot of people will be alienated due to the music.

[RonPaulwillWin]

hmm, why did he name the video after me? :D:D

[voytechs]

hmm, why did he name the video after me? :D:D

LOL!

[bulloncoins]

I personally enjoyed it, but a lot of people will be alienated due to the music.

I agree. I wasn't crazy about the music (I'm middle aged)....

My Dad who is 72 would not have watched it. Great for young people.....

Would miss the mark with middle aged and up.

[robskicks]

They just posted it on myspace, in a bulletin.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=OFAJby9BYu0

Anyways, towards the end it says that it is mathematically impossible for Ron Paul to lose if 50% of his supporters vote for him in the primaries, due to his support being so much greater then anyone else's. Is this true?

[Antonius Stone]

oooo Jay-Z in the Audio

does this mean that the Jigga Man is a RP supporter?
Imagine the hoopla that would result from that!

[Just Come Home]

They just posted it on myspace, in a bulletin.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=OFAJby9BYu0

Anyways, towards the end it says that it is mathematically impossible for Ron Paul to lose if 50% of his supporters vote for him in the primaries, due to his support being so much greater then anyone else's. Is this true?


That's a great question. If you look at the polling numbers right now, they're incredibly low across the board comparatively. Clinton is sitting in the 40% range in just about every poll, except for Iowa, where she's down in the mid-20's in some (not all). The Republicans, on the other hand, are swamped in the mid-low 20's for the front runners, and the teens for the field. Giuliani is leading the field with an average of 24%, with the next challenger, Huckabee at 16%.

Here's an analysis based on numbers that someone put together here, though I don't remember who... (apologies to that person)


Assume from the current polls per 100,000... And estimate a slightly higher than normal--but uniform--turnout. Turnout in 2000 was something like 8.1%, and in 2004 only 6.6%. I'm being generous with the 15%.

Candidate - percent likely voters * percent turnout * 100,000 = votes

Mitt Romney 33% * 15% * 100,000 = 4950
John McCain 18% * 15% * 100,000 = 2700
Rudy Giuliani 16% * 15% * 100,000 = 2400
Ron Paul 8% * 70% * 100,000 = 5600
Mike Huckabee 5% * 15% * 100,000 = 750
Fred Thompson 4% * 15% * 100,000 = 600
Tom Tancredo 1% * 15% * 100,000 = 150
Unsure 14% * 15% * 100,000 = 2100
Other 1% * 15% * 100,000 = 150


The end values are per 100,000 people, so remember to take those values and multiply by how ever many 100,000 people there are.

This analysis has Ron Paul at 70% turnout. Maybe that's a little high... But if you make it 40%, he's still registering a strong second place finish... which is the point here. In this weak field, all Ron Paul has to do is CONTEND to justify fighting this thing out to the National Convention. (I would add that I believe RP's polling numbers to be soft numbers, particularly in caucus states. Polling in caucus states has been notoriously dubious over the years because there's no way to account for all of the field variables (http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DE5DA133DF93AA15750C0A96E9482 60)).

I'll be suprised if any Republican garners more than 33% of the vote, leaving the door wide open for Paul to make the case to keep his campaign open.

[Mark]

oooo Jay-Z in the Audio

does this mean that the Jigga Man is a RP supporter?
Imagine the hoopla that would result from that!

itz a Z thing

[RonPaulFTFW]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFAJby9BYu0

The official Ron Paul Myspace posted this.

What do you guys think?

[JenaS62]

I don't like the music - but that's just me. Maybe it should be called Proof that Ron Paul SHOULD win instead of WILL win. Even with all of that going for him - he may still not win. Sad but true.

[Fox McCloud]

I don't like the music either, but the message is decent.

[RonPaulFTFW]

Come on.

Show some love for J-hova.
haha.

[fedup100]

Sorry, can't take that rap crap any more bro......change it!!

[Kapt Nemo]

lol, I don't really care for the music... but the message is good... would have preferred Bob Marley's Revolution....