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RJ Liberty
07-23-2016, 09:41 PM
Big news out of Utah, as a poll for the state's fourth congressional district shows Johnson statistically tied with Trump and Clinton there. Only the fourth district was actually polled, but that district includes part of Salt Lake City, and Johnson is polling very high across the state.



A new internal poll (http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/10232-internal-poll-shows-mia-love-with-a-15-point-lead-over-democrat-doug-owens) from Utah Rep. Mia Love’s campaign suggests that Libertarian nominee Gov. Gary Johnson is in a statistical tie with Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the Beehive State’s 4th Congressional District, and closing in on the state’s six electoral votes. At 29%, Trump has a narrow edge, but Clinton and Johnson are hot on his heels, with 27% and 26%, respectively.


The survey of 300 likely voters was conducted July 7-12 by Y2 Analytics, and has a margin of error of 5.7%. Pollster Scott Riding notes that the survey includes cell phone users, unlike those conducted by SurveyUSA for the Salt Lake City Tribune.


Although Utah is considered a red state, its large Mormon population has proven to be wary of Trump, possibly due to his hostility towards American Muslims, another religious minority group. Additionally, influential Mormons like Gov. Mitt Romney and conservative media icon Glenn Beck have refused to endorse Trump, and both have hinted that they might support Johnson.


An official endorsement from either could give Johnson the bump he needs to win Utah, making a contested House election (http://thelibertarianrepublic.com/how-gary-johnson-could-win-the-white-house/) and upset victory possible.

Link here. (http://thelibertarianrepublic.com/utah-poll-gary-johnson-in-statistical-tie-with-trump-clinton/)

http://marijuanapolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Johnson-Takes-Utah-300x240.png
Image courtesy 270 to Win.



From MP.com (http://marijuanapolitics.com/utah-gary-johnson-and-president-mike-pence/): Now we have new polls out of Utah showing the three-way race between Trump, Clinton, and Libertarian Gary Johnson to be a statistical dead heat. Utah’s super-majority Mormon population does not particularly like the Muslim-bashing, twice-divorced, profane Trump.

If the election goes the way Michael Moore predicts with the “Rust-Belt Brexit”, the 6 electoral votes Gary Johnson could win in Utah would deny both Clinton and Trump the presidency.

LibertyEagle
07-23-2016, 09:43 PM
When has Trump "bashed" Mormons?

RJ Liberty
07-23-2016, 09:47 PM
It says "Muslim-bashing", not "Mormon-bashing".

Natural Citizen
07-23-2016, 09:51 PM
Heh. That's an internal poll from Utah Rep. Mia Love's campaign, RJ.

We've been doing this for a long time, my man. We know a thing or 973 about poll methodology.

Please provide for us another poll that supports this one because I'm challenging its legitimacy. Thank You, RJ. :)

LibertyEagle
07-23-2016, 09:52 PM
It says "Muslim-bashing", not "Mormon-bashing".

Yup. Thanks.

LibertyEagle
07-23-2016, 09:53 PM
Yeah, it's interesting. I have some friends who are Mormons in Utah and they are supporting Trump. They may not like some of his ways, but they damn sure don't want the Hildebeast.

r3volution 3.0
07-23-2016, 09:55 PM
Great news

RJ Liberty
07-23-2016, 10:02 PM
Great news

Yeah, we'll see where it goes. The last polls in Utah (from last month) had Gary at 13% (Survey USA) and 16% (Gravis), but that was over a month ago.

Ender
07-23-2016, 10:51 PM
I don't know any Utahans that are supporting Trump. Most are just "What the-" about the whole election.

RJ Liberty
07-23-2016, 11:38 PM
I don't know any Utahans that are supporting Trump. Most are just "What the-" about the whole election.

I have successfully converted both of my friends in Utah to vote LP this year. They live in the St. George area, and were so disgusted with Trump that they had even considered switching to Hillary.

fr33
07-24-2016, 01:02 AM
That's good for the LP but let's not act like Mormons are principled. Mitt Romney was every bit as shitty as Trump.

Did they like the fact that Mitt as gubernatorial candidate was pro-choice, anti-gun, and pro-universal healthcare?

RJ Liberty
07-24-2016, 01:31 AM
Heh. That's an internal poll from Utah Rep. Mia Love's campaign, RJ.

We've been doing this for a long time, my man. We know a thing or 973 about poll methodology.

Please provide for us another poll that supports this one because I'm challenging its legitimacy. Thank You, RJ. :)

Always good to be skeptical of polls, IMO, as my belief is that they are often used to shape public opinion rather than to gauge public opinion. But this particular poll isn't much different than the Gravis Poll (http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-utah-polling/) from May/June: Clinton and Trump were at record low numbers in Utah (26% and 29%) then, and they've stayed that low since that time. Only difference between the Gravis Poll and the Y2 Analytics Poll is Johnson has continued to gain since then.

Y2 Analytics is an RCP-approved pollster (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ut/utah_republican_presidential_caucus-5765.html) and their polls are approved by 538 as well.

http://i.imgur.com/6K2Z75U.png

Natural Citizen
07-24-2016, 02:01 AM
Always good to be skeptical of polls, IMO, as my belief is that they are often used to shape public opinion rather than to gauge public opinion. But this particular poll isn't much different than the Gravis Poll (http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-utah-polling/) from May/June: Clinton and Trump were at record low numbers in Utah (26% and 29%) then, and they've stayed that low since that time. Only difference between the Gravis Poll and the Y2 Analytics Poll is Johnson has continued to gain since then.

Y2 Analytics is an RCP-approved pollster (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ut/utah_republican_presidential_caucus-5765.html) and their polls are approved by 538 as well.

http://i.imgur.com/6K2Z75U.png

Yes, I know what polls are used for. This is the same exact poll as the one in the op from Utah Rep. Mia Love's campaign, right?

RJ Liberty
07-24-2016, 09:19 AM
Yes, I know what polls are used for. This is the same exact poll as the one in the op from Utah Rep. Mia Love's campaign, right?

Yes, Y2 Analytics is the polling company which conducted the poll on behalf of GOP incumbent Mia Love; I posted the Gravis Poll from last month in comparison. The only numbers that have changed are Johnson's.

Both these polls show record low polling numbers for the Republicans and Democrats: just 55 or 56% of those polled in Utah will be voting for Clinton or Trump, combined.

RJ Liberty
07-24-2016, 02:04 PM
That's good for the LP but let's not act like Mormons are principled.

I don't think most of the mainstream LDS members in Utah are liberty-leaning, but it seems like there are a shit-ton of Mormon libertarians in Idaho. Greg Collett and the like.

r3volution 3.0
07-24-2016, 03:28 PM
Only difference between the Gravis Poll and the Y2 Analytics Poll is Johnson has continued to gain since then.

That's pretty interesting. If Gary's support were a pure protest, as if he were interchangeable with "deez nutz" or "giant meteor," you wouldn't expect to see his numbers change except in reaction to a change in Trumpllary's numbers. That his numbers are rising without any drop in Trumpllary suggests to me real, specific support for Johnson, not just as a protest.

LatinsforPaul
07-24-2016, 03:43 PM
That's good for the LP but let's not act like Mormons are principled. Mitt Romney was every bit as $#@!ty as Trump.

Did they like the fact that Mitt as gubernatorial candidate was pro-choice, anti-gun, and pro-universal healthcare?

Trump echoed those same beliefs and as a Democrat. In fact, I would characterize Romney more as a moderate and Trump more as a liberal. Especially when you look at both of their past political beliefs. Sad to say that Romney would be more conservative than Trump would be in the White House.

Ender
07-24-2016, 04:45 PM
Trump echoed those same beliefs and as a Democrat. In fact, I would characterize Romney more as a moderate and Trump more as a liberal. Especially when you look at both of their past political beliefs. Sad to say that Romney would be more conservative than Trump would be in the White House.

Yup.

RJ Liberty
07-24-2016, 08:37 PM
That's pretty interesting. If Gary's support were a pure protest, as if he were interchangeable with "deez nutz" or "giant meteor," you wouldn't expect to see his numbers change except in reaction to a change in Trumpllary's numbers. That his numbers are rising without any drop in Trumpllary suggests to me real, specific support for Johnson, not just as a protest.

Good point: Clintrump's numbers haven't budged in Utah in the past month and a half. So what is going on there? Is there a base number at which point the establishment parties cannot sink any lower? I don't remember any poll numbers with Clintrump doing as badly as they are doing in Utah: when the Dems and GOP are both polling in the twentieth percentile, their low numbers become historic lows. But as you say, with Johnson's numbers rising and Clintrump now leveling off, it seems as though many of these folks aren't necessarily fleeing Clintrump to flock to Johnson.