Original_Intent
06-30-2007, 08:02 AM
http://ivrpolls.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=20&Itemid=1
Here is the article (minus the table) I have boldedareas for emphasis
polled past Republican primary voters in Texas on their preferences among the announced presidential candidates. They're not sure. While only 16% said they were undecided, 70% said they were still considering other candidates. When asked about Fred Thompson entering the race, enough said they would switch and support his candidacy to move him into the lead, but only a third of those that were still considering others said they would definitely support Thompson.
Thompson's highest support was male. In particular, men over 40 were almost twice as likely to support him as women over 40. Men were three times as likely as women to support Ron Paul. Other gender gaps saw McCain's female support 50% over his male support. Guiliani was slightly higher among women. Women were also 50% more likely to be undecided.
Without Thompson
Giuliani - 26%
McCain - 18%
Romney - 15%
Huckabee - 7%
Paul - 6%
Other Announced - 13%
Undecided - 15%
With Thompson
Thompson - 29%
Giuliani - 21%
McCain - 13%
Romney - 9%
Huckabee - 4%
Paul - 6%
Other Announced - 6%
Undecided - 11%
All announced candidate names were read (rotated), but only the choices shown were given as options (also rotated). I suspect that confusion between Tommy Thompson and Fred Thompson resulted in 'Other Announced' being as high as it is in the first list. Those picking 'Other Announced' were much more likely than average to switch to Fred Thompson.
736 past GOP Primary Voters polled 6/19/2007 - Margin of Error 3.6%
I should note that Ron Paul's support was relatively strong in the areas around his congressional district and very weak elsewhere. His district is close to Houston and relatively close to San Antonio and Austin, and his support was strongest in these areas.
OK, now for my points.
1. They polled past GOP primary voters - so Ron Paul's independent, third party, and Democrat support is not represented.
2. Only 30% of those polled say they are not considering other candidates
3. With Fred Thompson thrown in, every candidate except Ron Paul loses support to him. This shows that Ron Paul's 6% is rock solid (edit: sorry I just noticed on the poll that only 4% said they were DEFINITLEY supporting Ron Paul) . Since only 30% of those polled are committed to their choice, this means that 20%(edit to 12.5% due to prior error) of those that are committed are Ron Paul supporters! (and again this is only among past GOP primary voters!
4. I think it is very important to look at the methodologies of these other polls. Almost all of them are saying that they are from "likely GOP primary voters". It is critical to find out how that is determined. If they just randomly call anyone and ask if they are likely to vote in the GOP primary, that provides a good sample. However, if they are doing like this poll did, and preselecting likely GOP primary voters, then this is HUGE GOOD news to the RP cause
Here is the article (minus the table) I have boldedareas for emphasis
polled past Republican primary voters in Texas on their preferences among the announced presidential candidates. They're not sure. While only 16% said they were undecided, 70% said they were still considering other candidates. When asked about Fred Thompson entering the race, enough said they would switch and support his candidacy to move him into the lead, but only a third of those that were still considering others said they would definitely support Thompson.
Thompson's highest support was male. In particular, men over 40 were almost twice as likely to support him as women over 40. Men were three times as likely as women to support Ron Paul. Other gender gaps saw McCain's female support 50% over his male support. Guiliani was slightly higher among women. Women were also 50% more likely to be undecided.
Without Thompson
Giuliani - 26%
McCain - 18%
Romney - 15%
Huckabee - 7%
Paul - 6%
Other Announced - 13%
Undecided - 15%
With Thompson
Thompson - 29%
Giuliani - 21%
McCain - 13%
Romney - 9%
Huckabee - 4%
Paul - 6%
Other Announced - 6%
Undecided - 11%
All announced candidate names were read (rotated), but only the choices shown were given as options (also rotated). I suspect that confusion between Tommy Thompson and Fred Thompson resulted in 'Other Announced' being as high as it is in the first list. Those picking 'Other Announced' were much more likely than average to switch to Fred Thompson.
736 past GOP Primary Voters polled 6/19/2007 - Margin of Error 3.6%
I should note that Ron Paul's support was relatively strong in the areas around his congressional district and very weak elsewhere. His district is close to Houston and relatively close to San Antonio and Austin, and his support was strongest in these areas.
OK, now for my points.
1. They polled past GOP primary voters - so Ron Paul's independent, third party, and Democrat support is not represented.
2. Only 30% of those polled say they are not considering other candidates
3. With Fred Thompson thrown in, every candidate except Ron Paul loses support to him. This shows that Ron Paul's 6% is rock solid (edit: sorry I just noticed on the poll that only 4% said they were DEFINITLEY supporting Ron Paul) . Since only 30% of those polled are committed to their choice, this means that 20%(edit to 12.5% due to prior error) of those that are committed are Ron Paul supporters! (and again this is only among past GOP primary voters!
4. I think it is very important to look at the methodologies of these other polls. Almost all of them are saying that they are from "likely GOP primary voters". It is critical to find out how that is determined. If they just randomly call anyone and ask if they are likely to vote in the GOP primary, that provides a good sample. However, if they are doing like this poll did, and preselecting likely GOP primary voters, then this is HUGE GOOD news to the RP cause